pointspread...who needs it

[tigerman19]

not sure of the exact percentages but noticed this past weekend the pointspread didn't matter in any of the playoff games. was wondering if it would be profitable for an entire season to just try to pick nfl winners without concerning yourself with the nfl pointspread? any percentages and thoughts would be appreciated. for example exclusive moneyline betting.

[Pythagoras]

Teams that win in the NFL cover the spread 82% of the time . So if you think the underdog is going to cover the spread statiscally there's a 82% they'll win straight up

[Romanowski]

82% of winners also cover, I dont have my database open but you need to break out favs who win what % cover and dogs

this has been brought up before, it doesnt help things, because picking winners is hard enough

and exclusive ml betting on favs would yield a lower ROI then simply betting them to cover

[jarhead60]

Originally Posted by Pythagoras

Teams that win in the NFL cover the spread 82% of the time . So if you think the underdog is going to cover the spread statiscally there's a 82% they'll win straight up

I don't get it. I think there is a typo somewhere. Dogs win straight up about 33%. Dogs win ATS a little over 50%.

There is a site,

Advanced NFL Stats

which gives the probability of team winning each week, and the estimated probability is very good compared to actual--- that is of all the teams estimated to win 70% of the time, they actually do win about 70%.

However, I back checked a couple of years and I could not find a betting advantage with this information. Not with spreads, and not with the money line.

[Pythagoras]

Originally Posted by jarhead60

I don't get it. I think there is a typo somewhere. Dogs win straight up about 33%. Dogs win ATS a little over 50%.

There is a site,

Advanced NFL Stats

which gives the probability of team winning each week, and the estimated probability is very good compared to actual--- that is of all the teams estimated to win 70% of the time, they actually do win about 70%.

However, I back checked a couple of years and I could not find a betting advantage with this information. Not with spreads, and not with the money line.

You misinterpreted what I wrote. I didnt say 82% of dogs cover or 82% of favorites cover the spread I said teams that win SU cover the spread 82% of the time.

Its harder to pick the winner in an NFL game than people think

[Kramer]

Like Rome states , theres so many scenarios ,

i think a more advanced breakdown study would be required

All favorite
All underdogs
All visiting
All home
Home favorite
Visiting underdog
Home underdog
visiting favorite

[St8 Merkin]

Guys I think you going down a dead end road here. Anything you guys look into has been studied ten fold by the people in Vegas. The entire goal of these people is to ensure their isnt a loop hole anywhere. The incentive for them to know these thing before even getting into business is critical when you consider how much they stand to lose if they miss something like that. Just my opinion. Like Romanowski was saying betting only the moneyline can give you a good winning% but your not going to be able to break the bank like that. Its set up so that one loss could offset anywhere from 2 to 5 wins depending on the kinds of lines your playing. Do the math, you would have to consistently pick at a 75% or higher clip to stay above water. Considering how this last season went, thats seems pretty unlikely. Again just my oppinion.

[JunkyardDog47]

Excellent job guys. The LVSC uses 9 people and a highly advanced computer to spit out their opening line. Their very existance depends on accuracy of those lines. What you have to remember is this. When those lines come out, public perception is a part of the equation. If you can develop accurate lines without the public perception part thrown in, you can beat this game. It is really easy. Opening line minus public perception equals legitimate opening line. Figure out what the legitimate opening line is, compare it to your opening line, and then compare those two to the posted line.

[Q2]

72.5% to 84% That is the range where the line does not effect the outcome of the game. (on average, approx. 1 out of every 3.5 to 4 games the line effects the final score). And remember, the line is determined to balance the action on a game, NOT TO PREDICT THE WINNER.

[Pythagoras]

Originally Posted by JunkyardDog47

Excellent job guys. The LVSC uses 9 people and a highly advanced computer to spit out their opening line. Their very existance depends on accuracy of those lines. What you have to remember is this. When those lines come out, public perception is a part of the equation. If you can develop accurate lines without the public perception part thrown in, you can beat this game. It is really easy. Opening line minus public perception equals legitimate opening line. Figure out what the legitimate opening line is, compare it to your opening line, and then compare those two to the posted line.

Bravo sir, not many people realize this . Public perception influences the real line by many points in NFL games