Reading Line Movements

[booktheselosers]

one tip I picked up from a proffessional handicapper was to read line movements. Not those half point or full point movements, but when a line moves two full points or more, that's not the public doing that. That's smart money movements.

For example, in the NFL this year, when GB played KC. the line was 14 all week long, and then about an hour before kickoff it dropped to 11. That wasn't the public who did that. And what do you know, KC won the game.

Does anyone else look for those big line movements and follow the smart money?

[Seanie Mac]

If its moved 2 points, which is a lot, betting it is -EV. You have to be able to read it before it moves, which takes sports options or don best.

it's not impossible, but not easy. you can get a sense of where it's going to head by the overnight lines as they have smaller limits causing the line to not move but effect the juice.

I beat roughly 70% of the closing lines in college hoops as the market is more volatile. in hoops almost every number is key so betting a game after its moved isn't really a good bet. I haven't done that bad, I'd say 56% on blindly following the market this year, it's easiest on college basketball totals, but I always try and get in before it moves by more than 1 point. Maybe 1-2 bets a night for me are blind tails

See where Pinnacle, 5dimes, Legends & Cris are leaning with their juice 1st

[Tiny tim]

I would agree to a point but and that is a big butt I treat these plays as I would any other and not unload my house, car or wife on following blindly like that.

I think Seanie Mac is on something I look always look at and that is totals.. I put much more stock in totals with line movement especially downward line movement than anything else... Mostly in NCAA hoops and I have seen the trend this year in nba as well.

Just seen two many sides bets go up 1.5 to 2 points to bank that.. Normally I will bet against that trend as oddsmakers are good and I trust their line... With totals not so much!

[Seanie Mac]

Most of the big time players get access to the lines before they are open to everyday people like us. That's why sometimes you'll see on say sbrodds.com the opener for a college basketball game is let's says 144 and the under isn't -108, but -115. The sharps have already hit the under for the overnight limit, and drove the juice 7 cents. 95% of the time that line will move at least 1 point downwards by like 10am EST.

What I have noticed is that if Pinny opens a line juiced, (not the normal -108 or -105), and it bucks the expected position by about 3PM, I'll 100% of the time play which way it bucked

For example 1AM EST

Team A +3 -105
Team B -3 -105
Over 144 -115
Under 144 +107

3PM EST

Team A +3 -105
Team B -3 -105
Over 143.5 -108
Under 143.5 -108 (Play)

The Over was expected to rise with the early juice, but instead it reversed and went down. That takes a lot of sharp action by someone or someones to reverse the expected movement. It also could happen for a side play, but I mostly use it for totals. A rough estimate is it wins 60% but they aren't very common.

This has been gold for me in Hockey totals this year. That's all I bet in hockey is this stuff. Also if a hockey total opens dead even which is rare

5.5o -105
5.5u -105

And I come back and look later and it's

5.5o +107
5.5u -117 I'm betting this 95% of the time since hockey totals are almost always something rediculous like 5.5o +120 5.5u -130

The best is when it goes from 5.5o -125 to 5.5o -110 or something like that, I'm betting the under almost every time. These have been doing really well for me.

It's also good in hoops if you have multiple outs, because like football, 3 is a big number and if it goes +3.5 to +2.5 and vice versa it takes a lot of money to move across 3, with multiple books you could prob still get a +3 if your fast enough. And teams down 6-7 points often stop fouling +7.5 to +6.5 and vice versa is a big move too that takes a lot of money. I'll almost always buy to or down to 3 and 7 from 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5 as for me it's only 10 cents for hoops 1/2 points.

[Seanie Mac]

Originally Posted by Tiny tim

I would agree to a point but and that is a big butt I treat these plays as I would any other and not unload my house, car or wife on following blindly like that.

I think Seanie Mac is on something I look always look at and that is totals.. I put much more stock in totals with line movement especially downward line movement than anything else... Mostly in NCAA hoops and I have seen the trend this year in nba as well.

Just seen two many sides bets go up 1.5 to 2 points to bank that.. Normally I will bet against that trend as oddsmakers are good and I trust their line... With totals not so much!

Public money doesn't move lines, only sharp money. But there's a lot of sharps all over the world, and they always don't like the same side, sometimes they like a very publicly side

[booktheselosers]

Yes, looking at the vig change is a good indication of line movements. but sometimes it happens very quickly, or even over night.