Reverse Engineering

[Beep]

There are some good handicapping folks here at the mall. Has anyone ever taken a good handicappers contest picks and try to reverse engineer them? I think there is a lot to learn from this.

[Sweetleaf22]

sometimes!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Romanowski]

Im trying to imagine how one could reverse engineer a successful handicappers picks, with only the knowledge of his picks in historical data

and it seems more complicated than engineering a a successful model by ones self, lol

explain how you go about this beep

[dave nz]

I thought the same, Romanowski.

[jarhead60]

First, one must define a "successful handicapper", and then one must find that person.

Good luck with that. LOL.

[smooth53_98]

The only way I have ever been able to 'work backwards' is when a racing handicapper lists an angle # or some identifier with a play resulting in some history of horses that met angle 'A'... In that case I can look at a ton of factors and find what is similar... but most guys don't come right out and say that their play meets 'Angle A' or 'Angle B'.

Being more of a novice in sports than horse racing, I wouldn't know all of the factors that one would check on if they were trying to back into what mandated a play... I don't necessarily see the 'angle' aspect being as strong in sports as it is in horse racing (trainers being creatures of habit may, for example, raise a horse in class, stretch him out, and then drop him back down a class from two back and back to a sprint)... not that the example there is profitable, but it is a move of trainer intent. I would think that sports is really more of an 'edge' in a pitching matchup; how a particular offense plays versus a particular defensive style... kind of a rock-paper-scissors thing... Just my 2 cents.

[Beep]

Yes I tracked the POD for a couple years on a spreadsheet to determine who was a good capper. I was really interested in the one game a day wager. Give me the best game of the day! I found over the two yr period most folks were were in the red, but there were an handful of people that consistently won and were up over a two yr period. These people were not even regular posters on the board. I am pretty sure those people were not making random guesses or just looking at the spreads and picking one that looked good that day. They must have a method to the madness. So you start to look at how they bet, for example baseball, do they bet the series? If so, pitching must not be a factor? Usually these picks would be a differential of some stat, such as on base percentage etc.....Do the odds come into play? Do they matter? Yes I thought it may be easier to come up with something your own, but it may be easier to follow someone that is proven and figure out what they are doing. Then try to guess who their pick may be that day etc...