Scalping

[Seanie Mac]

Would like to get some peoples opinion this. As far as a single game goes at what point would you consider it? And for futures do you look for ones that you will be able to scalp instead of ones you feel you will win?

[BLBisinnocent]

by scalping do you mean hedging?

[Seanie Mac]

yes

I know some people who say matchbook is the best for this. If they don't like a side or total on let's say the MNF game, they will just try and find scalps via live betting to just make an easy couple bucks.

[BLBisinnocent]

Its certainly up to the individual, but really a bet should only be hedged if the new play you are making is +EV, or if you originally overbet your bankroll to where hedging the play brings you back to an amount you are comfortable with.......you completely destroy the already poor odds you are getting on parlays by hedging, so that is never a good idea, unless like I said, you feel the new play is +EV.......

[BLBisinnocent]

I think we are talking about different things, sorry about that.....

Googled it, I think if you made your play at +EV, than saw a better price on the dog to "scalp" you are essentially throwing away your value by playing the other side.......so my answer is the same for both scalping and hedging........

[Seanie Mac]

I disagree, if you are able to Gage the market and just want to win free money, you should try and scalp as many games you don't have action on as you can.

if you feel Yankees -150 is going to move, or know it's going to move, why wouldn't you take a position on it and wait to +155 or better on the opposition. But like I said this really on works at matchbook. it's a free $5 if it wins and longterm is a smart investment.

Hedging parlays in excess of 5 teams is the smart thing to do since the odds of actually hitting one aren't good. Always guarentee yourself +$$

[Seanie Mac]

scaliping is more buying back a pick at no money lost no matter what, doesn't really work for lined sports because of juice.

But for futures, if you can find a soft spot in a schedule and think that team may go on a run, you can buy that teams division winner future early, wait for it to go down and buy another team and get 2 +$$ bets

[BLBisinnocent]

Let me respond to that seperately.....

On the first part, sure, if your intention is to play both sides, and neither side is +EV, scalping is fine.......What I was referring to, is if after handicapping your game, you decide the Yankees -150 is a +EV bet and you make it, then it is bad long term strategy to be scalping your +EV plays, because you lose your value.....

Second part.......
Because the odds of hitting parlays are so bad, one who plays parlays can not afford to give away the poor odds they are getting by hedging the last game of the ticket and getting paid say 5-1 instead of 8-1 to ensure they are winning money......You are getting less value on the ticket as is, to go ruining that by giving away money on the end of it is not a good LT strategy at all.....

[Seanie Mac]

Well noone should be hedging a 3 team parlay anyway, but a 5 or 6 teamer, abaoluetly you should if you want to be a winning longterm player, if ur a casual player who just wants a nice hit than fine let it ride and gamble

[Seanie Mac]

Your not playing the Yankees because you like them, you are playing them because you feel the market is going to move, therefore you scalp it @ +151 or better

[BLBisinnocent]

You actually have it backwards.....if you are looking for long term success (first of all you shouldnt be playing large parlays anyway), but if you do, you definitely cannot lose the value on you plays......

a casual player just looking to break even can hedge all he wants, because he is just looking for a sure thing.......

[Seanie Mac]

Everyone messes around with $25 5+ team parlays here at there

and no I don't have it backwards. Any person who gambles for a living will tell you if you find yourself with a 6 team parlay ticket paying 40-1 for let's say $50, should be hedging for at least $800

actually they will 1st say try and middle it but if you can't at least hedge for the original line

[Romanowski]

ok heres the answer to your question,

you laid out an example of grabbing a ML fav of -150 only later to grab the dog +155, for a 5 cent scalp...that is not worth it unless your unit is 1000 or more

remember when accepting offers at matchbook you pay a commission to the exchange.

with the commission a line of -158/+155 is really -160/+153...now add in transfer fees to move your funds around and youll quickly see its not +EV

if you keep your funds in MB for a determined amount of time, its possible to churn out something worth it

but the smaller your BR is the less appealing it becomes, not to mention its tying up your funds where you could be using it in other ways.

[BLBisinnocent]

Originally Posted by Seanie Mac

Everyone messes around with $25 5+ team parlays here at there

and no I don't have it backwards. Any person who gambles for a living will tell you if you find yourself with a 6 team parlay ticket paying 40-1 for let's say $50, should be hedging for at least $800

That is incorrect....

I wont go any further with this discussion, it appears you werent looking for peoples opinions on scalping and hedging, you were looking for someone to tell you it is ok to make bad bets.......

[Seanie Mac]

Originally Posted by BLBisinnocent

That is incorrect....

I wont go any further with this discussion, it appears you werent looking for peoples opinions on scalping and hedging, you were looking for someone to tell you it is ok to make bad bets.......

lmao ok ttyl