Spread VS Moneyline

[CodyG]

I notice there is a large number of people who place wagers mainly on the Spread. Why is that?

Why not just play the moneyline when a team is given almost the same value on the moneyline?

Example,

Game Spread Moneyline
Bal -1.5 1.80 1.70

[Randle Pat McMurphy]

most people would play the moneyline in the example you give here

[dave nz]

Originally Posted by CodyG

I notice there is a large number of people who place wagers mainly on the Spread. Why is that?

Why not just play the moneyline when a team is given almost the same value on the moneyline?

Example,

Game Spread Moneyline
Bal -1.5 1.80 1.70

:cm

This topic is better suited to the Technicapping Mall forum section, so have moved it.

[CodyG]

randle pat mcmurphy- that's what I figured but wasnt quite sure so thought I should still ask.

Thank you for moving this dave.

[jarhead60]

A few reasons

1. Most people do not want to bet at odds worse than 11/10, so that rules out betting on most favorites. Hard to lay $450 to win $100 when one is on a budget.

2. A bettor on a dog does not get the benefit of the points, the team must win outright. That means that the "meaningless TD" late in the 4th quarter that happens when the team in the lead is trading yards for time (prevent defense) does not help the $ line bettor but can help the spread bettor.

3. Many local bookies only offer point spreads.

4. The point spread equalizes the teams.

5. Most bettors play for recreation, and the point spread is almost a coin flip.

5. Custom and habit.

6. The vig on a 7 point favorite is about 4.8% (1/21) if betting sides. What is the vig on a -310+260 bet?

[uva3021]

its a tradeoff between edge, vigorish, and expected winning percentage

-110 vigorish implies a 52.38% winning percentage, anything higher and the implied percentage increases, so you have to calculate how valuable that extra 3% edge (1/1.7 - 1/1.8) accounts for extra vigorish

it could happen, in low scoring environments or a team dependent expected total that is considerably less than the league average, where there happens to be an edge on the ML but not the spread, in that case ML would be the best value

[jarhead60]

uva,

How is the vig on the money line computed?

Assume a line of -500+400

Can you tell me the vig and show the math? Do we assume equal money on both teams?

Is the vig usually higher on sides or the money line?

[uva3021]

You have to calculate the overround and then compare to standard -110 overround which is 4.76% (110/210+110/210-1), from there you can gather additional information

Implied -500 = -500/(-500-100) = 83.33%

Implied +400 = 100 /(400+100) = 20%

Overround = 83.33% + 20% - 100% = 3.33%

Expected spread implied = 3.33%/2+50% = 51.66%

Expected spread US line = (51.66% / (1-51.66%))*100 = -107

Typically books have the same overround for each wager in a given sport(ML, spread, totals). Overround can vary sport to sport, and of course teasers/exotics

[jarhead60]

uva,

thanks, and I still have some things I don't understand

1. overround -- this is the vig from the bookies point of view??

2. implied -- equals the win percentage required to breakeven??

3. I don't understand "Expected spread implied" Can you explain this in different words?

Thanks in advance and I appreciate your patience.

[uva3021]

"Expected spread implied" is scarcely official terminology, but essentially it indicates the spread vigorish for a ML of -500/+400, which would be -107

whatever the spread is, if the odds are even you would expect a -107 spread