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Old 01-22-2019, 07:15 PM
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foot Super Bowl Betting Info

Good Luck and Enjoy The Game
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:16 PM
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NFL
Dunkel

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 3

New England @ LA Rams

Game 101-102
February 3, 2019 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
142.098
LA Rams
140.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 1
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 2 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+2 1/2); Under
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:16 PM
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NFL
Long Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) vs. LA RAMS (15 - 3) - 2/3/2019, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 193-239 ATS (-69.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 193-239 ATS (-69.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-102 ATS (-44.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-102 ATS (-42.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:17 PM
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Super Bowl History

The Super Bowl is the championship for the National Football League (NFL), which is America’s superior football league. The game pits the winner of two conferences, the National Football Conference (NFC) against the American Football Conference (AFC) in the finale. This is an annual event that started in 1967 and is usually played on the first Sunday in February.

The NFC owns a 27-25 edge over the AFC in the first 52 Super Bowl matchups. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the most Super Bowl wins at six, while the Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers all have five.

The Super Bowl is the most gambled-on sporting event in the United States. Favorites have gone 35-17 straight up and 28-20-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 27-24. The biggest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The point-spread rarely comes into play with the Super Bowl, meaning you just have to pick the winner of the game. There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976.

In the 2014-15 Super Bowl between New England and Seattle, the closing consensus line was pick 'em, which was the first in the NFL finale. The Patriots rallied for a 28-24 victory over the Seahawks.

Oddsmakers were on the money with their numbers in two Super Bowls, which produced pushes or ties. Those matchups took place in 1997 and 2000.

The most infamous pro football finale for oddsmakers was Super Bowl XIII. The 13th installment saw the Steelers open as 4 -point favorites over the Cowboys and the number dropped to 3 -points with early action on the Cowboys. Even though Dallas lost the game 35-31 to Pittsburgh, early bettors cashed with the 4 -points and Steelers backers won on the closing line. To this day, SBXIII is considered “Black Sunday” for the sportsbooks.
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:17 PM
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Super Bowl line on the move, MVP long shots, and today's NFL odds and analysis
Brandon DuBreuil

The odds for Super Bowl LIII have seen some serious line movement since hitting the board Sunday night, what to do with Todd Gurley's props and a quick look at the MVP odds for the Big Game. We bring you the need-to-know betting notes to help crack the odds for Super Bowl LIII.

LINE ON THE MOVE

There has been some serious line movement since oddsmakers released the opening odds for Super Bowl LIII on Sunday night. Most sportsbooks opened the line at Rams -1 but bettors — sharp and public alike — have piled on the Patriots, moving the line all the way to New England -2.5 (-115) at most shops.

Now the question bettors are asking themselves is when is the right time to make their Super Bowl bet to get the best number. Ed Salmons, head oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, joined Joe Fortenbaugh on The Sharp 600 yesterday and said that he did not anticipate the line going all the way to Patriots -3. Salmons also mentioned that if it does hit Pats -3, it will likely be because sharps help push the line there, so they could then make a larger wager on Rams +3. He also said he thinks the number closes at Pats -2.5.

If you’re a Patriots backer and are looking to make a wager, you’ve probably missed the best number already. The two options now would be to grab it at -2.5 in case it does hit -3, or to wait and hope that Rams money floods in when the betting really gets going in the 48 hours prior to kick off. Rams backers, +2.5 might be the best line you’ll see, though if you’re feeling lucky you could hold out and hope for +3.

WHAT’S UP WITH GURLEY?

One of the biggest storylines we’ll be following over the next two weeks is the situation in L.A.’s backfield, where it seems C.J. Anderson is the feature back. Anderson handled 16 carries for 44 yards in the NFC Championship Game while also hauling in one catch for five yards. Todd Gurley, on the other hand, handled the ball just five times (four rushes and one reception) for 13 yards, though he did score a touchdown.

The Rams continue to insist that Gurley is healthy. He seemed ready to go on the sideline against the Saints and continued to try and stay loose by stretching and riding the bike while he watched Anderson handle the bulk of the carries.

Quarterback Jared Goff weighed in on the situation in his on-air post-game interview with Fox’s Chris Myers. “You just have to feed off what we are doing, and C.J. was running the ball well. I expect Todd to have a hell of a game in the Super Bowl though,” Goff said.

Gurley himself had something to say about it as well. “I didn't play good. I didn't deserve to be in there. CJ was in there. He did his thing. Everybody held me down. We all held each other, and we just got it done. We just got it done. Thank you, Lord. Thank you," he told ESPN’s Josina Anderson.

At this point, there’s no reason to think that Gurley is still injured. Instead, it seems that the Rams are just going with the hot hand. We’ll be monitoring the situation and diving into player props more deeply once they’re released later in the week.

MVP ODDS

One of the first prop bets to be released for Super Bowl LIII was the MVP market and it’s no surprise that quarterbacks Tom Brady (-110) and Jared Goff (+200) are leading the way. It comes as no surprise as the two men under center lead the way as quarterbacks have won 29 of the 53 awards and nine of the last 12. Brady has won the award in four of the Pats’ five Super Bowl wins (with Deion Branch winning the other).

If you’re more interested in placing a wager on a higher-risk, higher-reward option, here are some notables:

Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald (+1600) has better odds than any wide receiver in the game and the same odds as teammate running backs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson.

The next two Patriots on the list are running backs, with Sony Michel (+1800) getting slightly better odds than James White (+2000).

Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Julian Edelman all share the best odds amongst wide receivers (+4000), while tight end Rob Gronkowski (+5000) is next on the pass-catchers list.

If, for some reason, you think the game will be decided by field goals and only field goals, then place some cash on the kickers: Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein pays out a nice +12500 while Stephen Gostkowski is a cool +15000.

The smartest bets would be, of course, to take the quarterback from the team that you think will win the game. But there could be some value in Julian Edelman. The last wide receiver to win the award was Santonio Holmes in Super Bowl XLIII when he put up a line of 9-131-1 that included the game-winning catch with 35 seconds remaining in regulation. But Brady’s safety blanket has been phenomenal in the postseason with receiving lines of 9-151 and 7-96 and another big line on Feb. 3 could see him taking home the MVP award (and giving bettors a huge payout in the process).
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:18 PM
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If early action is any indication of Super Bowl success, then this is your best bet

The Super Bowl pointspread is different from any other NFL spread bettors will tangle with over the course of the football season.

Not only is it the most publicly-influenced line but there is a two-week ramp-up to the Big Game, with the bulk of the betting action coming in during the final 48 hours before kickoff.

However, while the late money from the masses will move the odds, those looking for an inside edge when betting the Super Bowl might want to follow the early line moves. Sharp professional players are most often the first ones to bet the Big Game odds the second they hit the board, and we’ve seen just that with the line movement in the Super Bowl LIII betting markets.

The Los Angeles Rams opened as 1-point favorites versus the New England Patriots, but early money poured in on the Pats and flipped this spread as far as New England -2.5. Is that early money on the right side? Possibly, considering how that sharp play has fared in recent Super Bowls.

Here is a look back at the last 11 years of Super Bowl betting, where the early money went and whether it was on the right side or not of the outcome.

Super Bowl XLIII: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Opening spread: Patriots -13
Closing spread: Patriots -11.5

The sharps and the public both backed the right side with the Giants winning outright 17-14. They were paying +400 on the moneyline as well.

Early money: Win


Super Bowl XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Opening spread: Steelers -6.5
Closing spread: Steelers -6.5

This matchup was booked pretty evenly but the early money did come in on the underdog and the spread dropped to 5.5 before the Steelers money came in the second week.

Early money: Win


Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints

Opening spread: Colts -3.5
Closing spread: Colts -4.5

The Colts got bet up to as high as 6-point chalk before the game closed with the 4.5-point spread. The early money was on the losing side here but the action was reported as light. While digging through the archives it seems like the sharps were backing the Saints late in the second week.

Early money: Loss


Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening spread: Packers -2
Closing spread: Packers -3

The Packers were a Wild Card entry into the postseason but their impressive march through the NFC playoffs had most football fans thinking they were a better team than the Steelers. Bettors backed the Pack early and they proved to be right with Aaron Rodgers holding up the championship belt.

Early money: Win


Super Bowl XLVI: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Opening spread: Patriots -3.5
Closing spread: Patriots -3

Here’s another similar spot here for the books. The early money came in on the underdog Giants who won the game outright over the Patriots again.

Early money: Win


Super Bowl XLVII: San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Opening spread: 49ers -4
Closing spread: 49ers -4.5

The numbers above might say the bettors were on the wrong side, but the line history at Pinnacle shows the first move was in favor of the underdog Ravens. Pinnacle dropped to 49ers -3.5 two days after opening with San Franciso giving four points.

Early money: Win


Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

Opening spread: Pick
Closing spread: Seahawks -1.5

The early action wasn’t uniform across the industry because of the variations of opening lines. Some shops opened with the Broncos favored by two points others listed the game as a pick. Either way, the smart and early money was on the Seahawks, who crushed Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Early money: Win


Super Bowl XLIX: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

Opening spread: Patriots -1
Closing spread: Patriots -1

The action was split for the full two-week buildup to the Big Game for Super Bowl XLIX. The spread as a near pick’em and that’s how the bettors saw the game.

Early money: Draw


Super Bowl L: Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

Opening spread: Panthers -3.5
Closing spread: Panthers -4.5

The Panthers almost went undefeated on their way to their second Super Bowl appearance as a franchise, but they didn’t show up in the big game and bettors paid a price at the window.

Early money: Loss


Super Bowl LI: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

Opening spread: Patriots -3
Closing spread: Patriots -3

The early money came in on the Patriots but not enough to move the spread. The books received two-way action but the first at the window were betting chalk.

Early money: Win


Super Bowl LII: New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Opening spread: Patriots -5.5
Closing spread: Patriots -4.5

All the early action was on the underdog Eagles despite the fact they entered the Big Game with starting quarterback Carson Wentz sidelined due to injury. Million dollar bets poured in on Philly and sportsbooks toyed with the idea of dropping the spread to 3.5 before the Pats money showed up on the final weekend.

Early money: Win
Final score: Early money 8-2-1
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:19 PM
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Super Bowl is one of the rare times on the sports calendar that everyone – gambler or not – knows the pointspread.

Big Game betting has massive mainstream appeal, as stories flood the news wires about the Super Bowl odds and who Las Vegas thinks will win it all – or at least cover the spread. But in that fleeting moment of understanding also comes plenty of misunderstanding.

Even seasoned Vegas veterans may not know these five facts about Super Bowl betting:

Public has the power

The Super Bowl is a unique market in itself and unlike the entire regular season and even the preceding playoff games, the line movement is not dictated by the opinions of respected big-time bettors – also known as sharps or wiseguys – but rather by the general public.

Super Bowl is the most popular game of the year, and the $10, $100 and $1,000 wagers from your Average Joe stacks up a lot quicker than action from sharp bettors.

Generally, books will be quicker to adjust a spread or total (in order to help balance action on either side) if wiseguys make a strong opinion on one particular bet. However, with two weeks to take wagers and knowing the betting public will hammer this game with both fists come Super Bowl weekend, sportsbooks are far less likely to react to early sharp money and move the Super Bowl odds.


What doesn’t happen in Vegas

One of the most common misconceptions about Super Bowl betting – and sports betting in general – is that you can wager on just about anything in Las Vegas.

And Super Bowl prop betting has become a very popular talking point in recent years, thanks to crazy wagers like betting on the halftime show, national anthem and color of the Gatorade bath. Well, good luck finding those wagers at any sportsbook inside Nevada state lines (or Jersey or those other legal states).

The Nevada State Gaming Control Board is very sticky about what you can and can’t bet on, and unless that prop is defined in the box score of the game or decided on by a legitimate source, books can’t offer odds on it. Heck, they just offered Super Bowl MVP odds for the first time three years ago.

If you see odds on things like “How many times will Donald Trump tweet during the game?” or “Will which song will Maroon 5 open with?”, those are coming from online sportsbooks overseas or offshore. They aren’t limited to strict regulations and basically grade these props on their own accord. So winning bets on the length of the national anthem, for example, could vary from book to book depending on how they timed it and graded it.

Those so-called "Vegas odds" you love to talk about so much are more like "Costa Rica odds".


You aren’t betting $1 million on the coin flip

We’ve all heard the wild wagering stories of the high roller who wagered $1 million on some whacky-ass prop. It didn’t happen.

Sportsbooks protect themselves from losses when it comes to unpredictable props – that’s how they keep the lights on. They don’t take risks. Things like the coin flip prop have tight limits, even for a game as big as the Super Bowl.

Betting “Heads” or “Tails” comes with a cost, with books setting the juice (price of making a bet) as high as -130. That means you must wager $1.30 for every dollar you want to win. And that bet size maxes out anywhere from $500 to $2,000, depending on where you wager. So even if you hit your coin flip play with a max bet, you’re only looking at a payout of $1,538.46.


$1 million bets are rare – even for Super Bowl

While we’re on the topic of $1 million wagers, these aren’t as common as you think. Every so often a whale wonders into the Super Bowl betting handle, dropping a cool milli on the Big Game. But books don’t have to accept that bet, and some don’t want to.

The stars have to align, somewhat, to place a $1 million wager. You can’t just walk into a sportsbook with a briefcase full of money and lay the Patriots. These $1 million bets are often called in ahead of time or arranged through a casino host.

The sportsbook must have a handle (total pool of money bet on the game) that can balance that type of action, and they must also get approval from their respective “powers that be” to take it. The person placing the bet is also vetted, and is often a known casino player with good standing and accounts with that property. There are always rumblings of $1 million bets coming in during Super Bowl, but most of the time these wagers never show up. That said, MGM sportsbooks took a $3 million wager on the Eagles for Super Bowl LII.

As for putting $1 million on the Super Bowl at online books, there are a small handful of shops that will take that type of money and even fewer that would admit it – as to avoid showing up on the radar of headhunting anti-gambling government task forces.


Frantic 48 hours

The Super Bowl odds have two weeks to draw action but like a slacking college student cramming for exams, most bettors wait until the last minute.

Sportsbooks estimate that about 98 percent of the total betting handle on the Big Game comes in the final 48 hours before kickoff – Saturday and Sunday. As game buzz reaches a fever pitch and tourists pile into Las Vegas, sportsbooks in the Silver State are slammed during Super Bowl weekend and online books are constantly dealing with a flood of web traffic.

There was $158.6 million bet on Super Bowl LII in Nevada last year and an estimated $5 billion in wagers on the NFL finale in the United States alone, through online shops and illegal bookie operations. That means that in that final two days, roughly $4.9 billion was wagered on the Super Bowl.

That’s $102,083,333 per hour.
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:19 PM
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Six costly mistakes NFL fans make when betting the Super Bowl odds
Jason Logan

Betting the Big Game?

Of course you are. It’s the Super Bowl. What a stupid question.

But massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed stupidity, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp: the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their god damn mind.

There’s two weeks before the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots showdown in Atlanta on February 3. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. It’s also plenty of time to heed these warnings.

You bet too early/too late

If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl LIII, you’ve seen the Patriots go off at anything from +1 to -1.5, after a remarkable comeback and overtime win against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

If you’re a Pats backer and you didn’t get down on that +1 spread, you may have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Los Angeles -1 and watched free points pass you by.

First off, let those odds go, ‘cause man they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize that there are two weeks of wagering to be had on this game and that 98 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time. That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.

Patriots fans, you may want to grab the -1 or -1.5 on your beloved team now. Books took early money on Belichick's boys and New England is the most public team in all of football - maybe in all of sports betting - so it may not get any better than giving this short spread. Rams backers, you may want to wait out that movement and see if you can get a something bigger before showtime.

There has been some very aggressive line movement in recent Super Bowls. So hold tight, you might get what you want. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.

Waiting out a line move (I think that's a Bob Seger song...) that may never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over-juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.


Prop contradictions

The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backwards. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Los Angeles to cover, then who and what will get it there.

If you like the Under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the Under in passing props, leaning toward the Over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.

The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.

If you think Tom Brady lights the Rams up for massive gains, then don’t load up on the Over in the Patriots’ rushing yard props.

Believe L.A. will slow the pace and eat up time of possession with a run-heavy playbook? You may want to shy away from Brandin Cooks' Over on total receptions prop and instead think Over for how many carries Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson will have.


Didn’t pay attention to prices

One of the worst rookie mistakes a new bettor can muff is not paying attention to the juice attached to each wager. And especially come Super Bowl time, when you’re not just limited to a side and total, bettors can easily overpay for props and alternative wagers.

Certain props can hold a hefty price tag, either set that way to draw action or adjusted after the betting market has had its say. Professional handicappers are always wary of high-priced moneyline favorites in any sport, setting a limit to just how much they’ll put down. Some pros won’t pay more than -150 for a bet and it may be a rule you integrate into your Super Bowl capping.

On top of some extremely juiced prop prices, books limit the amount you can wager on these alternative bets. So, throwing down $20 on a -170 prop bet is only going to net you like $12 in profit. And playing vig-heavy props can turn a winning record into a loss. Nothing stings like going 5-3 on your bets and still ending up in the red.


Chasing

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, bettors can panic if things aren’t going according to plan by the time they start setting up the halftime show stage. That can often lead to people chasing their first-half prop losses and going against what they so intensely handicapped for the past two weeks.

Halftime lines hold value, as do in-game live betting odds, if you have a strong opinion. Many times, when a game didn’t play to the oddsmakers’ expectations in the first two quarters – high total had low-scoring first half or favorite underperformed – things will correct themselves in the second half.

But, when faced with the shame of a Super Bowl loss, some bettors will go against their existing bets just to have some black ink on the board. If they took the Over, and the halftime score is 10-7, they pull the trigger on the second-half Under. If they laid the favorite, and the chalk is getting beat up through two frames, then side with the underdog.

As mentioned, these abnormalities often even out and bettors can quickly wipe out a winning bet – that was perfectly handicapped – with a horrific halftime wager or live bet placed in sheer panic.


Too much media

Trust your instincts when it comes to the Super Bowl line. If you’ve watched the NFL intensely each week since the preseason and haven’t missed a minute of playoff action, you already have a firm grip on the two Super Bowl teams and how things should shake down.

If your knee-jerk reaction was “Patriots -1 is easy money”, then it probably is. But for the next two weeks, the media is going to break down this game and put it back together 100 times. You will second guess your wager probably just as much.

Like a promoter hyping up a title fight, the Super Bowl will be sold as the matchup of all matchups. Both sides will present excellent reasons why they’ll win. The public consensus will flip flop like fish. Sharps will be on the Patriots one day and the Rams the next. Stat heads will throw trends and numbers at you that go all the way to the invention of the forward pass.

And in the end, what was supposed to be a tightly-contested game with a field-goal spread is a 22-0 wash at halftime. So much for all the media hype.

Stick to your guns. First instincts are usually the right ones. Don’t over-soak your brain in two weeks’ worth of media mush. Pick and choose who you listen to, or get your bets down and tune out the Big Game buzz until kickoff like avoiding Game of Thrones spoilers. I'm only on Season 2, damn it!


You sucked all the fun out of it

If you’re a fan of the Patriots or Rams – you’ve earned the right to be a little uptight for this game. I would be if my team was playing in the Super Bowl. But for the rest of us losers, who are left to just bet on the Big Game, don’t ruin what is the final football game that matters until September.

Some guys think “Big Game” equals big bets. If you’ve been stashing your nickels away for a big-ass betting bonanza on Super Bowl Sunday, then have at it – but only if it’s within your means. Nothing takes the fun out of watching the Super Bowl like wondering how you’ll pay the rent after a disastrous interception in the end zone.

And if you’re watching the game with friends or even in a sports bar around strangers, keep your rage in check. There’s no need to start dropping f-bombs and getting your Tom Brady Underoos in a bunch because you didn’t nail that coin flip bet.

Sports betting is entertainment. And there’s no bigger show than the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, win or lose.
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:20 PM
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Sunday, 3 February 2019 • 03:30 PM
101 NEW ENGLAND @ 102 LA RAMS
Play on NEW ENGLAND against the spread in All games in all lined games
The record is 39 Wins and 17 for the last three seasons (+20.3 units)
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Old 01-24-2019, 09:17 AM
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By: Brandon DuBreuil



Backfield committee in New England

The Rams aren’t the only ones with backfield questions leading up to the Super Bowl. Heading into the AFC Championship Game, it seemed fairly straightforward as Sony Michel was handling the early-down work and James White was the third-down/receiving back. But then Rex Burkhead made his presence known against the Chiefs, scoring a touchdown with 39 seconds remaining in regulation and then, of course, the 2-yard game-winning score in overtime.

In the end, the three Patriots backs received similar playing time, with Michel getting 34 snaps, White 33, and Burkhead 30. Michel dominated touches with 29 carries for 113 yards and two scores. Burkhead had 12 carries and four receptions, while White had six rushes and four catches.

What was really interesting was that it was Burkhead on the field when it mattered most: Late in the fourth in the two-minute drill with the Pats down four, and then again in overtime. This could have been because Michel and White were tired. The Patriots wound up playing 97 offensive snaps, which was the highest number they’ve played since 2001. Having Burkhead out there late in the game meant a fresh running back was on the field against a defensive side that was gassed. Michel’s 29 carries were a season-high — his next highest was 25 back in Week 4 — and New England’s coaching staff obviously didn’t want to push it into the 30s.

Digging into the snap-count numbers above makes it pretty clear why Burkhead suddenly became the No. 1 back late against the Chiefs. Michel is still the top dog and we’re expecting him to get the vast majority of the carries early on in the Super Bowl. We’ll dig into his rushing yards total as the Super Bowl gets closer but, for now, backing Michel to go Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns is a smart bet.


Pats controlling the clock

One thing that the playoffs have taught us is that the Patriots want to play slowly and methodically, at least early on. In the Divisional Round, they took the opening kickoff and ran 14 plays for 83 yards in 7:11 for a touchdown. In the AFC Championship Game, they one-upped themselves by taking 8:05 off the clock during a 15-play, 80-yard touchdown drive.

These marathon drives have left the opposing offenses standing around for a long time to begin the games and this approach has worked — the Chargers mustered just seven first-half points in the Divisional Round, while the Chiefs were shut out last week.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been slow starters so far in the playoffs, scoring three points in the first quarter against Dallas in the Divisional Round before being shut out in the first quarter last week at New Orleans. L.A. has rebounded with points in the second quarter, but the first-half total still hit Under 27.5 in both.

The first-half total for Super Bowl LIII opened at 28 and has ticked down to 27.5 at some sportsbooks, so it might be the right time to make this bet if you’re backing the above analysis: Take the Under 27.5 for the first-half total.


Rams bettors might want to wait

If you’re looking to bet on the Rams for Super Bowl LIII, you might want to hold off as it’s looking more and more likely that the line will move to Rams +3. In fact, it happened yesterday at Las Vegas’ South Point sportsbook:

Well, what happened is that Rams money flooded in at +3 and 17 minutes later the South Point had moved the line back to Patriots -2.5.

Is getting that extra half-point that important? Well, yes. Since 2002, the year the Patriots began this dynasty with a Super Bowl win over the St. Louis Rams, the margin of victory in the Super Bowl has been three on five occasions — by far the most common margin of victory. In fact, the Patriots were involved in four of the five games where the margin landed right on three.

There is, of course, two ways to look at the above info: If you’re looking to back the Rams, it might be smart to wait — but make sure you pounce on Rams +3 when you see it as it might not last long. If you’re planning to bet on New England, now might be the time to place your wager before the line moves to Patriots -3.
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Old 01-25-2019, 09:15 AM
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By: Brandon DuBreuil



PATS’ EARLY SUCCESS

Yesterday, we talked at length about what New England has been doing early in games during this year’s playoffs: Taking the kickoff and putting together ridiculously long touchdown drives. In the Divisional Round, the Pats took 7:11 off the clock on their first drive and last week they drove for 8:05 before punching it in. In both of these games, New England led by seven points after the first quarter.

In betting the first quarter, the coin toss obviously comes into play. If a team gets the ball first, it’s going to likely have more possessions (and therefore more chances to score) than the opponent. Most teams defer when they win the coin toss, as the Rams did last week, but Bill Belichick bucked that trend two weeks ago when he elected to receive the ball against the Chargers (last week, the Chargers won and chose to defer). In fact, it seems oddsmakers are even expecting the Patriots to elect to receive the ball if they win the coin toss as they’ve set odds even at whether a team will receive or defer if they win the coin toss.

So, if the Rams are expected to defer and if the Patriots are expected to receive the ball, then there’s a pretty good chance that New England will start the game with the ball. That would also give them a pretty good chance of getting at least two possessions to L.A.’s one in the first quarter. Yes, the Patriots struggle historically in the first quarter in the Super Bowl with just three total points in eight games. But we prefer the recent trend where the Pats have won the first quarter in both playoff games this season. In fact, the Patriots’ moneyline in the first quarter is 6-0-2 in New England’s last eight games. The Rams, meanwhile, have lost the first quarter in both playoff games this season. We like the idea of the Patriots jumping out to an early lead in Super Bowl LIII and we’re taking New England’s first-quarter moneyline.


GOING BACK TO THE WOODS

Admittedly, we had a bad week in trying to predict the Rams’ wide receivers. We missed the Over for Robert Woods’ receiving yards total of 75.5 and the Under for Brandin Cooks receiving yards total of 70.5 as Woods had a 6-33 line and Cooks went off for 7-107. We weren’t completely wrong in our pre-game analysis, however, as Woods actually had 10 targets to Cooks’ eight. But Woods had an average of 5.5 yards per reception and a long of just 16 yards, while Cooks’ average was 15.3 with a long of 36.

We talked at length last week about how Bill Belichick usually finds a way to shut down the opponent’s top offensive threat(s). That was in full effect last week as the Patriots held Travis Kelce to three catches for 23 yards and Tyreek Hill to one catch for 42 yards. But who will Belichick focus on this week? Well, it would make sense that his attention will first go to Cooks, especially since he played in New England last season. The Patriots know Cooks’ moves and tendencies, and likely how to shut him down.

Another factor to consider is that Rams coach Sean McVay will likely want to get his young quarterback comfortable early on in what is obviously the biggest game of his career. Throwing downfield to Cooks is not how you get your quarterback in a rhythm — but throwing safe, short completions to Woods is. This happened in the NFC Championship Game as three of Goff’s first four passes were targeted to Woods. We see this happening again early in the Super Bowl and we’re taking the Over 5.5 for Woods’ receptions total.


AVOIDING AARON

Aaron Donald is, along with Khalil Mack, one of the most valuable defensive players in all of football. The Rams’ interior stud led the league with a franchise-record 20.5 sacks this season for an NFL-record -183.5 yards. Not surprisingly, he also led the NFL in tackles for a loss with 25 and quarterback hits with 41. But here’s the angle we’re taking from a betting point of view: Donald only had 59 total tackles on the season for an average of 3.7 per game. His tackle total likely stays low for two reasons: Interior defensive linemen don’t usually put up huge tackle numbers and teams likely run as far away from Donald as possible whenever they can.

The other key factor we must refer to once again is the fact that Belichick does not let the opponent’s top players beat him. We’ve talked at length about this over the past couple of weeks and it likely won’t be the last time. Belichick, Tom Brady, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will spend hours coming up with a plan on how to negate Donald. They’ll run away from him, double team him, and just generally confuse him with their pass protection. It was clear that both the Cowboys and Saints employed similar game plans in the NFC playoffs as Donald had just two total tackles (and no sacks) in each of the past two games.

Another factor to consider is that New England’s offensive line is simply on fire. Brady is the only quarterback to have not been sacked yet this postseason. In fact, in 46 pass attempts last week against the Chiefs, Brady was only pressured five times. Two weeks ago, he was only hit twice on 44 dropbacks. The O-line has also been opening gaping holes for the running game with Patriots players not named Brady running for 333 yards on 79 attempts for an average of 4.2 yards per attempt. New England’s offensive line is on fire and we’re expecting it to limit Donald at Super Bowl LIII, much like the Cowboys and Saints have been able to limit him so far in the playoffs. Take the Under 3.5 on his total tackles and assists total.
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Old 01-25-2019, 10:09 AM
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For 18 minutes on Tuesday, Las Vegas bettors had the opportunity to jump on the first +3 offered on the Super Bowl. Word spread fast. "Let's get to the South Point, now. Hurry!" The Sharp groups did a mad dash to the book on South Las Vegas Blvd. And the South Point phone wagers lit up.

"I just wanted to test the waters to see if there was Rams money out there, and there certainly was," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "I'm doing 10 different point spreads props tomorrow and I wanted to be sure what my base number was and today clearly revealed that Patriots -2.5 is the base number."

The South Point is the only book in Las Vegas to offer exclusively flat numbers. It's a credit to owner Michael Gaughan who mandates it. Former book director Bert Osborne, who worked 30 years under Gaughan, proved mathematically that it was a better business model to not move the juice to -120 or -130 on a key number. And Gaughan, the son of Las Vegas bookmaking pioneer Jackie Gaughan, didn't like the fact that the -120 attached to a number kept novice bettors away because they were intimidated by not knowing what it meant. It's old school and I love it.

So it wasn't much of a shock that after a day-and-a-half of Super Bowl 53 wagering the South Point was the first to jump into 3 territory, the most key margin of victory number in the NFL.

"I just wanted to see," said Andrews. "Are they going to take 3? How long will it take to move me off? I just wanted to see what they would do, not only for the props but also for reference over the next two weeks. I now know there's lots of Rams money loving +3."

Andrews said a couple bettors on the phone made multiple $2,000 wagers (phone limit) in the short span it was offered. Andrews usually takes two to three limit wagers, or a cumulative of the same, to get on or off of -3.

As for Gaughan, I can't stop praising him because he's an absolute genius that could teach some of the larger brands in town about customer service. He constantly gives value to his guests. He keeps his food prices and drinks down and sometimes on a whim he'll say every drink at the bar is $2 for the next two weeks. That's Patron, Woodford, Grey Goose and whatever high-end drink there is. No short pours, either.

Gaughan once offered the Bills-Redskins Super Bowl at -6.5, +7.5 and when he owned the Barbary Coast he posted his William "Refrigerator" Perry to score TD prop at on the marquee (opened 100/1). No casino did that. He welcomed it, embracing the sports book. He knew big events created spinoff action in the casino. He also started the first pro football contest, Pick the Pro's, in Las Vegas.

Las Vegas is awaiting what he'll do for this Super Bowl and on Thursday what everyone will see is a dime line on the money-line. The South Point currently has the Patriots -140 and Rams +120, so expect to see something like -135/+125.

And another amenity the Gaughan family brings to the table is Michael's son Brendan Gaughan helping out and writing tickets on Super Bowl Sunday. In case you don't know, Brendan Gaughan is a NASCAR driver who will be racing in the Daytona 500 Feb. 17. It's all hands ondeck for the Gaughan family.

In other Las Vegas news, Caesars Palace opened about 60 props on Monday and used a 20 cent split which was nice. Wynn and the Westgate Superbook joined the city by moving to -2.5. The total has dropped to 57.5 just about everywhere with the exception being 58 at William Hill and Boyd Gaming.
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Old 01-25-2019, 10:09 AM
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Update - Monday, Jan. 21, 2019 - 6:00 p.m. ET

Super Bowl 53 isn't until Feb. 3, but bettors were running to the windows on Sunday to bet the Patriots immediately after their overtime win at Kansas City as if it was about to kickoff. The early perception from bettors in Las Vegas is that they love New England. In the 'what we saw last' spectrum, it was the Patriots winning a tough game on the road against the No. 1 seed while the Los Angeles Rams got lucky with some awful officiating at New Orleans.

As the sports books quickly adjusted their Super Bowl point-spread Sunday night, most moving from pick 'em up to -2.5, the folks that like the Rams just sat there waiting for the line to get higher and higher until the ultimate buy opportunity (+3) arrives. Think of Winthorpe and Valentine at the end of the movie Trading Places.

Wynn Las Vegas opened the Rams -1 and money forced them to Patriots -1.5, the lowest number in town along with the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Wynn book director Doug Castaneda says he thinks the money will eventually come in on the Rams so he's taking a stand early on. He's probably correct just because this story seems to be written the same every Super Bowl.

Here's the story: Bettors saw one team dominate or look amazing while the other team struggled or got lucky. They jump all over the team that dominated early on pushing the line upward, but then the second week of action comes. Fans from all over (especially Los Angelenos) drive or fly into town on Thursday, Friday or Saturday and bring all their cash with them. These people usually take the underdog because they've won with the underdog outright eight of the past 11 seasons.

Those bettors that don't understand the point-spread much but want action ask the ticket writer how it works. "How much do I win if I bet the Patriots to win," a novice bettor would say. The ticket writer says "You have to lay $140 to win $100 on the Patriots."

Bettor: "That doesn't sound very good, how about the Rams?"
Writer: "A bet on the Rams to win pays $120 plus your $100 back."
Bettor: "Yes, I like that. Give me the Rams for $100."

That type of transaction happens thousands of times at every sports book during Super Bowl weekend. And that money adds up large and eventually holds more weight cumulatively than sharp action. The Super Bowl is all about the public bettors.

The route that Wynn is taking is simply from reliving past Super Bowl trends. The Patriots got early action last year and then the public flipped the final weekend to Philadelphia and while the state set a record for Super Bowl handle with $158 million, the win was a tiny $1.1 million (0.7 percent) thanks to the Eagles winning outright. In 2016, bettors flipped to the Broncos side against the Panthers in the last weekend and were correct. In 2014, bettors flipped on the Seahawks side against Denver and won in blowout fashion.

Interestingly enough, three of the big shockers in recent Super Bowls saw the Patriots being upset, and one of those was in 2008 against the New York Giants, which was one of only two times Nevada books showed a loss in the pro football finale.

Anyway, I'm with Castaneda's philosophy as well. The masses will side with the underdog. The books will eventually be rooting for the Patriots in Super bowl 53.

The question now after only one day of wagering is how high the number will go. The books don't want to go to -3, but if the risk gets too high they'll have to and Rams money is waiting.

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick, who opened the game pick 'em, tested the waters Monday while their limits are still low at $20,000 and moved the Patriots to -2.5 -120, twice. Each time he moved it he immediately got action on the Rams at +2.5 EVEN.

My first thought was why would large money show their hand for +2.5 EVEN when they can wait the books out and get +3. Sharp money knows what they're doing and there's always a plan. Do they think that's the best they're going to get? Or are they trying to show the book for $20,000 that +2.5 EVEN is attractive to hold them at -2.5 and then jump on the Patriots at -2.5-flat on Wednesday when the limits are raised to $100,000?

William Hill's Nick Bogdanovich thinks they'll eventually be at Patriots -3 while Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay thinks Patriots -2.5 -120 will be the peak.

By the way, both William Hill and the SuperBook will be releasing over 300 Super Bowl betting props on Thursday and both will be using 20 cents splits while most others in town will be using 30 cent splits. Pair those two places against each other on the openers and search for some chunky middles on prices and numbers. Both William Hill and the SuperBook do their own numbers.

I can't say I'll have a Super Bowl update daily, but that's the goal and when something happens with the numbers or I find something interesting, I'll definitely share with the VegasInsider.com audience.

Best of luck on your Super Bowl hunt. My advice is to wait on the Rams if you like them with the spread or money-line, but jump at both when +3 because I think it'll go down before the Super Bowl weekend begins.

Having said that you know what to do if you like the Patriots. Betting New England now -1.5 at Westgate or Wynn isn't a bad move.
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Old 01-25-2019, 10:10 AM
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Super Bowl 53 Notebook
January 20, 2019
By VI News

Super Bowl 53 - New England vs. Los Angles Rams (CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia (Sunday, Feb. 3, 2019)

After watching the home team dominate the conference championships for the last five seasons with a 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread record, the visitors finally struck back this postseason but it wasn’t easy.

The Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots both captured overtime wins on the road against the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs respectively.

The Rams and Patriots both cashed tickets as three-point road underdogs and they will now square off in Super Bowl III at Mercedes-Benz Stadium from Atlanta, Georgia on Feb. 3, 2019.

Including those outcomes, road teams and underdogs went 7-3 both SU and ATS in this year’s postseason. Dating back to last season, underdogs are now 17-4 against the spread in the NFL postseason.

Prior to Week 1, New England was listed as a 6/1 betting choice to win Super Bowl 53 at the SuperBook while the Rams had 10/1 odds.

Line Movements:

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Los Angles as a one-point favorite with a total of 58. Soon after the opener was sent out, the line flipped to Patriots -1 .

Bookmaker.eu, a major global betting shop, sent out the Rams at -1 and they adjusted as well. New England is now sitting -1 .

William Hill properties and the South Point in Las Vegas both have New England listed -2 as of 11:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.

One book in Las Vegas, Wynn Resorts, is sticking low at pick 'em and expecting more Rams money late while respecting future risk according to Micah Roberts of VegasInsider.com.

The total is holding steady at 58 with a couple books going to 59.

Follow all the line movements for every major Las Vegas and Global sportsbook.

Betting Notes:

The Rams and Patriots met in the 2016 regular season from Foxboro and New England captured a 26-10 win over as a 13-point home favorite while the ‘under’ (44 ) connected.

Including that win, New England has won five straight encounters versus the Rams which includes a 20-17 upset in Super Bowl XXXVI from New Orleans as a 14-point underdog.

The Patriots went 4-5 on the road this season, which includes Sunday's 37-31 overtime win against Kansas City in the AFC Championship. New England went 2-0 versus playoff teams on the road, the decision versus KC and it also defeated the Bears 38-31 from Soldier Field. The 'over' cashed in both games.

The Rams improved to 7-2 on the road with their 26-23 overtime win over New Orleans from the Superdome in the NFC Championship. Los Angeles was 2-2 against playoff teams on the road.

Versus NFC teams, New England went 3-1 this season. The lone loss took place in Week 3 when the Patriots dropped a 26-10 decision to Detroit at Ford Field.

Los Angeles went 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS against AFC foes this season behind an offense that averaged 36.3 points per game in those wins.

Super Bowl Betting Notes:

New England owns a 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS record in Super Bowls, while going 1-5 ATS in the favorite role. The only cover as a 'chalk' came in their 34-28 overtime triumph over the Falcons as three-point favorites in Super Bowl 51 from Houston.

Last February the Patriots lost Super Bowl 52 to the Philadelphia Eagles, 41-33.

Quarterback Tom Brady is playing in his ninth Super Bowl, posting a 5-3 SU and 3-4 ATS record. This will be his third straight trip to the finale.

The Rams defeated the Tennessee Titans 23-16 in Super Bowl 34 before losing to the Patriots two years later.

St. Louis was the home of the Rams for both those contests. The Los Angeles Rams made one appearance in the Super Bowl, the 14th installment from Pasadena, California. The Rams dropped a 31-19 decision to the Steelers as 10 -point underdogs.

The NFC and AFC have split the last 10 Super Bowls, while the 'over' is 7-3 during this span.
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Old 01-28-2019, 09:51 AM
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In the first 50 Super Bowls, only one was decided by exactly one point – Super Bowl XXV in in 1991 when the Giants defeated the Bills 17-16 from Tampa, Florida as seven-point underdogs.
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The city of Los Angeles is seeking its second-ever Super Bowl title. The last L.A.-based team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy was the Raiders back in Super Bowl XVIII in 1984 over the Redskins.
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Old 01-28-2019, 09:51 AM
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Six Super Bowls have been decided by three points or less. New England has participated in four Super Bowls decided by three points or less, going 3-1 and that includes their win SB36 win over the St. Louis Rams.
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Old 01-28-2019, 09:52 AM
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The NFC West is looking to become the fourth division since realignment in 2002 to have two Super Bowl winners.
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Old 01-28-2019, 09:52 AM
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The Patriots have won five straight meetings against the Rams, with the last outcome taking place in the 2016 regular season from Foxboro. New England captured a 26-10 win as a 13-point home favorite.
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The amount of times New England has allowed three or more passing touchdowns in a game this season. The Patriots won four of those six games, but yielded at least three touchdown passes in both playoff wins over the Chargers and Chiefs.
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Old 01-28-2019, 09:53 AM
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Jared Goff (California) will be looking to become the seventh quarterback from a Pac-12 school to win a Super Bowl. The other six are Nick Foles (Arizona), Aaron Rodgers (California), John Elway (Stanford), Troy Aikman (UCLA), Mark Rypien (Washington State), and Jim Plunkett (Stanford).
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The Rams are 8-0 against AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the team in 2017. The team has averaged 34.8 PPG during this run, which helped the ‘over’ go 5-3.
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The Patriots are playing in their 9th Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era. This is the eighth Super Bowl that New England will be taking the field in a stadium that is either a dome or has a retractable roof.
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There have been 10 defensive players named Super Bowl Most Valuable Player. The most recent winner was Broncos linebacker Von Miller, who captured the award in Super Bowl 50.
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There have been 11 situations where a head coach was making his debut in the Super Bowl versus a head coach with Super Bowl experience. This took place last season as Philadelphia's Doug Pederson bested New England's Bill Belichick. In the last four times in this scenario, the rookie coach has come out victorious three times.
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