systems for baseball

[johnny1212]

will you be tracking any systems for baseball this season in here ?

[Romanowski]

sure johnny, but the details of the system(s) we would like to see too

[T100]

The system I want to employ is: Betting the underdog AND the -1.5 fav, both can usually be found as + money.
Just working on some filters to go with this system trying to avoid the 1 run game

eg: no play if two top ten pitchers start.
reason being this should be a low scoring affair possibly resulting in a 1 run game by the fav.

[Romanowski]

curious, but when you say system do you mean a play is made without concern of the spread or ml in the case of baeball

[dr. dough]

another question, do you intend playing every single game in the league except when the top ten pitchers start?

[T100]

Im going to assume both questions are directed at me.

To Romo`s question, yes, Ive seen situations for instance KC @ NYY where the yankees were -280/-300 m/l favs. One degenerate over at the dark side was asking why wouldnt you throw your entire bankroll down on NYY -280. My answer was<no>, careful with that as I just watched the Royals put up something like 35 some odd runs in detroit(before they moved the fences in). Sure enough KC walks into yankee stadium and lites up A Petitte.


And to dr dough, that will depend on what filters I use, for instance one top ten pitcher would still be a play as in the perfect world the fav should win by 2 or more and the imperfect world the top ten pitcher has a bad outing and the dog wins.
Another filter that should be used may be the chance of showers %, as Ive seen where games are called early and only one run apart.
Filter- where the plate ump may have a tendency to under the #, therefore having a higher % of a close game.
filter- ballpark stats (petco in S.D, `pitchers ballpark`)

I suppose any filter/stat that would/could result in a close game would be a noplay.

Hope that helps Gents

[Romanowski]

that isnt exactly what I asked...im asking if your system comes up with a play

without the ml or spread being part of the equation

[T100]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

that isnt exactly what I asked...im asking if your system comes up with a play

without the ml or spread being part of the equation

Aw, I see what your asking. No, this does NOT come up with a play. this is just a play on the 2 +money scenario`s that is offered by the offshores and trying to avoid the one run game win by the favorite at a -m/l odd.

eg: 1 UNIT on the underdog at +130
and
1 UNIT on the fav -1.5 at say +110
AND trying to avoid the 1 run game win by the favorite at -140.

So if the dog wins, you get that unit back to offset your loss on the -1.5 plus the +130 to show a profit of +30

[home dogs]

Originally Posted by T100

Aw, I see what your asking. No, this does NOT come up with a play. this is just a play on the 2 +money scenario`s that is offered by the offshores and trying to avoid the one run game win by the favorite at a -m/l odd.

eg: 1 UNIT on the underdog at +130
and
1 UNIT on the fav -1.5 at say +110
AND trying to avoid the 1 run game win by the favorite at -140.

So if the dog wins, you get that unit back to offset your loss on the -1.5 plus the +130 to show a profit of +30

you are making very minimal gains everytime you win a bet, the first time you lose a bet you will be losing at least 7x what you can be winning,
So you have to hit 7/8 games to break even doesnt sound like it will work too well

[T100]

home dogs, your comment then introduces another filter and that is to only play U/Dog M/Ls greater than say +150 and -1.5s at +140 and up.

this is what Im looking for from posters is ideas for fillters to maximize a profit.

[T100]

Another way to maximize profit is the book you use, in my case probably Matchbook and Pinny for the most user friendly lines.

[T100]

Originally Posted by T100

Im going to assume both questions are directed at me.

To Romo`s question, yes, Ive seen situations for instance KC @ NYY where the yankees were -280/-300 m/l favs. One degenerate over at the dark side was asking why wouldnt you throw your entire bankroll down on NYY -280. My answer was<no>, careful with that as I just watched the Royals put up something like 35 some odd runs in detroit(before they moved the fences in). Sure enough KC walks into yankee stadium and lites up A Petitte.


And to dr dough, that will depend on what filters I use, for instance one top ten pitcher would still be a play as in the perfect world the fav should win by 2 or more and the imperfect world the top ten pitcher has a bad outing and the dog wins.
Another filter that should be used may be the chance of showers %, as Ive seen where games are called early and only one run apart.
Filter- where the plate ump may have a tendency to under the #, therefore having a higher % of a close game.
filter- ballpark stats (petco in S.D, `pitchers ballpark`)

I suppose any filter/stat that would/could result in a close game would be a noplay.

Hope that helps Gents

Upon further review this filter is wrong
eg: on a total at 6.5, there are 12 outcomes under 6.5, nine of which pay and 3 that burn the bettor
1-0, 2-1, 3-2 I lose
2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 4-0, 4-1, 4-2, 5-0, 5-1, 6-0. I win

[ProlinePlayer]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

curious, but when you say system do you mean a play is made without concern of the spread or ml in the case of baeball

This section of the forum is a great idea. There are surprisingly few spots where sports betting can be discussed with an emphasis on the math and the analysis of statistics.

Unfortunately, if you allow threads of this type you'll soon be swamped with them and any chance of real analysis of sports betting will be lost.

PLP

[Romanowski]

its true, id like to have this section, with precise thread titles, such as...statistical analysis of 5 game road trip

then extract the data however you may choose to create you own systems etc

but we are just beginning the section, and ultimately its new so general topics such as this are ok

Ill add however I dont buy into a system that doesnt use the book odds as part of it

in the example above, a play would only be made when it falls into certain parameters

whether its -140/+120 or whatever... theres also no statistical analysis to go with it

in other words there no analysis that says when you play dog ml fav rl you would have yielded + so many units

[mvalentin]

Originally Posted by T100

home dogs, your comment then introduces another filter and that is to only play U/Dog M/Ls greater than say +150 and -1.5s at +140 and up.

this is what Im looking for from posters is ideas for fillters to maximize a profit.

Totally different sports but would this apply to say the Sabres Panters game tonight

Panthers ML +176
Sabres -1.5 +165

So basically if we play both for a unit we are banking on Buffalo not winning by 1

Buff wins by two or more profit = +65
Floriad wins = +76

Basically wanting to increase my combined wager (200) by a max of 38% (+76) going against an outcome (Sabres win by 1) that has occured 4 times in the last 10 Buffalo wins.

Mathematically is this bet worth the risk?

please correct me if my math is wrong

thanks