Technicapping to Handicapping

[Dr. Jack]

The goal is not to eliminate technicapping because I love the threads (hope they continue) and the goal is to only increase the audience here to include other types of handicapping discussion.

A heavily moderated forum without sarcasm or hijacks. The place for intelligent conversation related to all handicapping, betting systems, spreadsheets including mathematics & quantitative technicapping.

[Dr. Jack]

In the future we will do some things to help it along. Now we will just see where it goes from here.

[Romanowski]

good stuff jack

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

good stuff jack

<tup>

[Deck]

I love how this is both a sports forum and gambling forum. we have seemed to lean more towards the sports forum though. when i first signed up here it was to learn different ways to cap any games. Glad this is coming back.

[Chicago RED]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

The goal is not to eliminate technicapping because I love the threads (hope they continue) and the goal is to only increase the audience here to include other types of handicapping discussion.

A heavily moderated forum without sarcasm or hijacks. The place for intelligent conversation related to all handicapping, betting systems, spreadsheets including mathematics & quantitative technicapping.

<tup>

[dakidoc]

This is a bit of a wiseass comment, but I think hijinks is the correct term, not hijacks (meaning to steal, etc). Hijinks seems to fit better in the spirit of what Dr. Jack probably had in mind. Correct me if I am wrong.


high jinks noun plural

wildly playful or mischievous behavior <despite the team's dismal record, the players have won over many fans with their exuberant high jinks>
Synonyms buffoonery, clownery, clowning, foolery, high jinks (also hijinks), horsing around, monkey business, monkeying, monkeyshine(s), roughhouse, roughhousing, shenanigan(s), skylarking, slapstick, tomfoolery
Related Words childishness, clownishness, foolishness, funning, jesting, joking, nonsense, silliness, waggery; boisterousness, rambunctiousness, rowdiness, rowdyism, rumbustiousness [chiefly British]; devilry (or deviltry), impishness, knavery, mischief, mischievousness, prankishness, rascality, roguery, roguishness, trickery; cavorting, frivolity, frolicking, gamboling (or gambolling), merrymaking, playfulness, revelry, roistering, romping, sporting, sportiveness.

[JimmyJiYa]

Hi Jack,

Good thread. I'll kick it off with two somewhat new models of handicapping I've been using recently and another I'm researching.

Model 1.

I prefer to not mention the service as to not promote them just yet (though things are going well), but they use a handicapping model that combines three attributes.
1. They use a collective pool of industry professional handicappers. So its like a professional expert consensus. So these guys I assume like other cappers would do all the analytics research on each games stats, etc.

2. The model also uses a larger scale of global collective consensus . So all the various points where public consensus can be attained such as public opinion, sportsbook opinion, etc.

3. They model then apparently analyzes and grades #1 and #2, including the historical performance, and uses some magical formulas, to produce their picks.

I find it somewhat of an interesting, yet logical approach vs. the one-man show, or using one source of consensus. Now does it work? I'm paying to see and can report back later.

Model 2.
- This is a model I'm exploring right now...and not finding any solutions other than to bring a whiz kid from googles computer science engineering team to help - anyone know anyone that fits this? lol. Basically its a data model that uses various statistical data points, similar to what model 1 #1 would use, but applying 'machine learning' to it. This way the computer intelligence would analyze, learn and refine from the data. Perhaps someone on Cappersmall is familiar with such a model?

Ok boys, those are my two new'ish handicapper models to explore/discuss. Any feedback/thoughts on these approaches?

[JimmyJiYa]

bump. No thoughts guys?

[BILLYZEKE]

OK i handicap the 3 pro sports NFL NBA MLB
NFL n NBA are similar MLB is far different then the other two there is no numbers to write down all i have to see is pithcers data and Bull pen and whom they just beat and how they won that series !

OK let me Explain technical handicapping NBA !

with a new thingy that is called the NEW age of handicapping sports NO odds maker or Computer software handicapping system can put a figure on it because it involves the huamn emotional psychological state of mind !

1st the technical side !

basic math n a calculator is needed and a large note book 8 1/2 by 11 because so many games to do each day and it takes an hour to do a large card !

i use the last 5 road games and last 5 home games of the teams adding up the PF and PA !

Then i get the Pickem Differntial and add the numbers together to get differnce between two teams if both are plus numbers or both negative or one is negative and the other is positive !

Then add in the point spread to see if the spread is off or i get balanced number !

VEgas uses a ver complicated power ratings model plus their data base on US the public how we bet and why ?

Plaese do not fall into that BS of Sharp action the public money out weighs sharp action by millions of dollars even the small 10$ bettors are in the Millions and imagaine 2 million $10 bets all on one side !

opposed to 20 $10,000 wagers !

so thats the basic math technical side i use !

NOW reading into the Emotional edge last night TWO games in NBA both upsets happened !

Thunder were freaking happy just pounded the shit out of the Roseless bulls and secured thier playoff spot !

in comes the playoff hopefull Grizzlies rested and The Thunder just didnt want this game they didnt Need it and tanked the 2nd half !

Bulls the loser of that game on a B 2 B but traveliing twice Home away then back home couldnt over come that loss THE Playoff bound Rockets came in on a B 2 B but was only 4th game in 7 nights for them and just LOST in OT last night but not as a DOG they were favored I guess they were looking ahead to this game or something !

the spread was off way off it made the bulls - 9 pts and rocets plus 1 point and rockets are on that goofy streak every other game covered !

so guess what next game fade them to death favored because that game was 6th str8 game they covered after losing !

THE weird side was Rockets starters logged 183 minutes in that game bulls only 138 but they were hard used minutes getting smoked by thunders defense !

YES i too had the Bulls last night in our NBA streak contest so call me stupid for breaking my system that spread was way off the mark and Vegas smiled !

ANOTHER thing Common opponent recent Rockets BEAT the THUNDER @ OKIE

Bulls just lost to them ! Head banging wall Icon here

so thats it thats how i do it and i have my plays monitore at a site

heres my sizzling streak right now

4/1/12 3:30PM Miami Heat at Boston Celtics +3½ Win!
4/1/12 3:30PM Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Under 186 Win!
4/1/12 6:05PM Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors -6½ Win!
4/1/12 6:05PM Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic Under 202 Win!
4/1/12 6:05PM Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic -5½ Loss
4/1/12 9:35PM Golden State Warriors +10 at Los Angeles Lakers Win!

no plays yesterday i was in here clicking around figuring out what was what !

BUT i made the wagers and lost !