Wong Teasers

[IrishTim]

Wong Teasers, or basic strategy teasers, are 2-team/6-point teasers in the NFL (and NCAAF under certain ranges) that cross the two most important numbers in football: the "3" and the "7".

Determining expected value on teasers only requires simple algebra and a push chart.

To calculate if a teaser is +EV or not, you need to determine if the amount you are capturing in the push rates you are teasing across makes up for the extra juice you are paying. You can do this by taking

P = probability of winning a single leg
N = number of teams in your teaser
O = the payout odds for the overall teaser (i.e. +300 = 3, +100 = 1, -110 = 10/11)

(P^N) x O = (1 - P^N) which you can reconfigure to P = (1 / O+1) ^ (1/N). It's kind of awkward typing in exponents and such on a computer, it's not nearly as complicated as it looks when you write it out.

For a 2 team, 6 point teaser at +100 you would do:
P = (1/odds you are being given + 1) ^ (1/number of teams)
P = (1/1+1)^(1/2) = square root of (.5) = .707 = 70.7%.

For a Wong Teaser at -110, it's:
P = 1/ [(10/11)+1] ^ (1/2)
P = .723 = 72.3%

So what the means is your breakeven point on each leg of the teaser (with payout odds of -110) is 72.3%. Assume each spread is a 50-50 proposition, that means you need to capture an extra 22.3% in the teaser to break even. Depending on what push frequencies you are using (and whether it's you're starting at 1.5, 2, 2.5 or 8.5, 8, 7.5) you're capturing about 24% with the 6 points.

As you can see, they are still profitable at -110 (1.7% edge vs. 3.3% edge at +100). You can also play around with different subsets, totals, trends, etc. to find a higher percentage but if I go any farther with this, some people may get pissed off at me.

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by IrishTim

You can also play around with different subsets, totals, trends, etc. to find a higher percentage but if I go any farther with this, some people may get pissed off at me.

No worries there bro, or at least Im not following why?

lets hear it :)

[MCP313]

Will these make money? Or Just hurt my head while trying to make money and inevitably possibly/probably (lose) not make money?

:peace:

[IrishTim]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

No worries there bro, or at least Im not following why?

lets hear it :)

There are some things that just shouldn't be discussed on an open forum. If everyone finds out about a book that is offering favorable teaser odds and runs to bet each one for the limit, they'll eventually come around to it.

Wong Teasers are the most basic teasers and are +EV, but others are more difficult to find and take some data analysis. I gave all the tools you need above, now it just takes some getting your hands dirty with the data.

Here's an example of another one: home favorites in NCAAF teased down from 7.5-8.5 to 1.5-2.5 with a total of 48 or lower. Anytime I find a situation like this, I make it the first leg of a bunch of my teasers.

Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp

Will these make money? Or Just hurt my head while trying to make money and inevitably possibly/probably (lose) not make money?

:peace:

Unless there are some changes that alter the NFL scoring distribution, yes. As I showed, you need each leg of a 2-team/6-point teaser to hit 72.3% of the time to break even. Well, sides teased across the 3 and 7 historically have covered around 74% of the time. You make enough of these bets, you will finish ahead.

[Romanowski]

they were a whole lot better BEFORE Wong published his book lol

you could tease 7 points -110 and in some cases +100

also books like Pinnacle, and 5dimes didnt hold a # to avoid crossing those key #s

[IrishTim]

I can only imagine those days. There are still plenty of teaser opportunities out there though.

[Romanowski]

there are and thanks for the post Tim...

[ZoomVT]

Thanks for posting these, i always played these Wong teasers but i always thought that there was a way to use other metrics to increase the return. It doesnt help that some books now charge double juice on 2 team teasers off the 3pt (but not the 7pt).