Would you tell anyone if........

[Beep]

You figured out a system that worked?
I have a system that was successful for 1/2 of last hockey season and about another one 1/3 of this baseball season. One is rather simple and the other complex. Its taken a lot of trial and error, but I would not say its proven by no means, it could just be luck, but I'm excited about the upcoming hockey season. Nothing special but I hope to be up 35 units for the full upcoming season?
If you had a system that worked would you tell anyone else how it worked? Would you post how it worked on cappers mall?

[Patriots Game]

Yes

[T100]

I would be greatly interested in what you got for NHL, If your willing to share with me so I can judge for myself if I would play it. ask Dr Jack for my email addy or give me permission to access your email addy thru Jack.

[jarhead60]

No, I wouldn't share.

I have a math system for the NFL which is successful, and I won't share it for two reasons:

1. This is a competitive world and I use the system, and I am not going to give up any edge I have.

2. If the system was well known, not only would I lose my competitive edge, but the point spreads could change and the system wouldn't work as well as it does.

See what happened to the "DrZ" system for betting place and show at the races, and also what happened at the odds payout over time a horses with good Beyer speed ratings, and what happened to casino blackjack after "Beat the Dealer" was published.

All that being said, I am more than willing to help anyone who wants to develop their own system.

[VegasKilla]

Lots of systems do okay for a year or two but eventually it will even itself out.

[Beep]

Yep I agree its unproven until at least a full season meets your expected results, it can still be i the black but if it does not meet your expected results then it is doesn't matter much. I'm probably getting ahead of myself, just wishful thinking.... Still exciting though.

[smooth53_98]

Generally I don't share my systems/angles/methods. In some cases (primarily horse racing), I have been collecting data for years, refining, retesting, etc... Unless I really know or trust someone, I am not about to share years of my own hard work and diligence with just anyone - unless we are collaborating on something and are both willing to put in the effort to test-revamp-rework-etc...

[smooth53_98]

To echo what jarhead said... I am willing to consult others looking to develop their own angles/systems by helping them to avoid 'reinventing the wheel'.

[jarhead60]

In NFL football, one winning season is not enough to "prove" that a system works. A real long term win rate of 60% would be fantastic, but a standard deviation of 10% would produce both losing years and years over time.

[Beep]

Yeah I gave up on football, there are not enough games in the season to form any kind of trend, that I could find anyhow. All my years of trying i only came out ahead three seasons for football. I don't touch it anymore.

[smooth53_98]

Originally Posted by Beep

Yeah I gave up on football, there are not enough games in the season to form any kind of trend, that I could find anyhow. All my years of trying i only came out ahead three seasons for football. I don't touch it anymore.

I feel the same way... the MLB, NBA, and NHL offer much more data each season and you can let the season go for a couple of weeks to see how teams shape up... if you do that in football, you are halfway through the season before you are ready to play. Hence I like horse racing... generally something running most of the day on any given circuit.

[inSite]

yes I have posted explanations of all my successes on here but generally no one listens :)

[grzftbl]

Originally Posted by smooth53_98

In some cases (primarily horse racing),

I've been to March Madness in Vegas for the last 6-7 years. 2 guys that go w/ us (20-25 from same city) do more on horse racing than hoops.

This weekend they bet $160-$170 to win $2000 on the last race on Saturday and bet $6XX on Sunday and won $4300 on the last race.

Now I don't know what they did (they won't share) but the do very well on ponys.

Sounds like you know your horses too!!!

[smooth53_98]

Originally Posted by grzftbl

Sounds like you know your horses too!!!

Some days things set up perfectly, other days - your horse breaks down, stumbles out of the gate, and you end up with seconditis....

Honestly, if I could make the profit I do on horse racing on a sport, I would probably switch over... I guess the question becomes - is it easier to track the form of a human playing a game a couple of days a week for a few months, versus an animal running every 3-4 weeks or so...