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  #51  
Old 12-19-2017, 09:18 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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S&P down to 2692, the bet might have paid off. We shall see. When a chart has a "floor" under it, it means that some unknown buyer(s) like Kellogg is buying at 346.5 to sell corn flakes. Kellogg does not care if it is paying a few pennies too much. They need the 56-pound bushels of corn @ under $3.50 to sell the 1.5-pound boxes of flakes @ $3.69 per box or 246˘/pound. I hope everyone understood this before. Selling something for ~80X what you paid gives great leeway in making a profit. There is no reason consumers cannot buy ground corn for 60 cents a pound, cook it, it is just easier to skip the cooking process and let the cereal company do it for you.



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Old 12-19-2017, 12:23 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Dogs of the Dow

Big time mutual funds want to move around their holdings soon. If the tax bill does not pass, the market will o down ut not stay down. 4% GDP here; 6% coming by 2019.

Click on the link for (MO) you do not have to smokem to enjoy profits. Move the month/year scale around, never stays down for long.

https://www.google.com/search?q=stoc...hrome&ie=UTF-8


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Originally Posted by AuburnKid View Post
This popular and simple strategy often does well. I do not do this but it has been a long-term winner. At 70 years old, it's for investors with a longer investment window.

from
How the Dogs of the Dow Fared in 2016 -- The Motley Fool

What makes the Dogs of the Dow strategy so attractive?
Two things stand out about the Dogs of the Dow strategy: it's easy to use, and it has performed well. The way you pick the Dogs is very simple. When the year starts, look at the top 10 yielding dividend stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials. Invest equal amounts of money in all 10 stocks. Then, hold onto those stocks throughout the year. At the end of the year, dividend yields will have changed, and so following the strategy for another year will inevitably require you to sell some of your holdings and buy new ones.

The secret behind the success of the Dogs of the Dow is that it tends to take strong elements from two different investing styles. On one hand, dividends play an obvious role, because the strategy picks only the highest-yielding Dow stocks. At the same time, though, high-yield stocks in the Dow tend to be ones that have lagged in performance in past years, and that adds a value-investing element to the mix. Often, hard-hit stocks bounce back the following year, and that adds upward momentum to the Dogs of the Dow.
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Old 12-21-2017, 05:12 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Merry Christmas
Ira Epstein's Charting Course!

6-hours of online videos containing a complete explanation of how to formulate a comprehensive charting based trading plan.



It doesn't matter if you trade futures, ETFs or stocks.

A chart is a chart.

The video course builds on the use of 5-select technical indicators as well as the chart patterns that create them.
Ira Epstein’s Charting Course – Ira Epstein Division of Linn & Associates, LLC.
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  #54  
Old 12-24-2017, 01:42 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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What to watch for in biotech in 2018



What to watch for in biotech in 2018
Thu, Jan 4, 2018 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EST




Thu, Jan 4, 2018 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EST



Join reporters Adam Feuerstein and Damian Garde for our inaugural STAT webinar. They’ll review last year's highs and lows and tell you what trends, trial readouts, and M&A shake ups they’re looking out for in 2018. They’ll also do a quick orientation on what to expect leading into JPM ’18.



https://register.gotowebinar.com/reg...source=Website
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  #55  
Old 12-27-2017, 12:42 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Ira Epstein's Charting Course!

6-hours of online videos containing a complete explanation of how to formulate a comprehensive charting based trading plan.



It doesn't matter if you trade futures, ETFs or stocks.

A chart is a chart.
see video;

Ira Epstein’s Charting Course – Ira Epstein Division of Linn & Associates, LLC.
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  #56  
Old 12-29-2017, 06:39 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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June S&P 500 futures hit new all-time high at 2700 this morning.
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Old 01-21-2018, 09:43 PM
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Commentary for 1-21-18 at 8:11pm

The US government shut down Friday night. There's still a chance that the Senate could reach on early Monday morning that finds a compromise to stay open, via a short term extension. Expect the President to play hardball on his position as he's in his element. To him, this is likely similar to when his real estate deals, many decades ago were going south and he told the banks they could have them back. They didn't and he did well. My guess is that he realizes negotiations in Washington aren't all that different than what he's experienced before, which from his point of view gives him the upper hand. Today he recommended that the Senate consider the Nuclear Option which is the option where a simple majority vote in the Senate carries the day to reopen the government. This was rejected by Mitch McConnell as soon as the President recommended it but the seed was planted. Some 20 bipartisan Senators are meeting trying to come up with a deal to vote on to get the government reopened on Monday morning before government offices would regularly open. I'm not staying up all night to see whether they succeed, but no deal is bearish stock indices and the Dollar while a deal to keep the government open will be taken as just the opposite.

While some say the President is hard to read and as Chuck Schumer says."like jello", the simple fact is that he's known as being a ruthless businessman and he brings that mentality with him to the Presidency. Is it all that different from years of listening to those in Congress say one thing, change their minds an do something else. I think not. Over breakfast today I nearly coughed up my juice when I read that an ethics member,House of Representatives, Representative Patrick Meehan, was kicked off the ethics committee for paying off a female accuser. He was ordered to payback taxpayers as he used taxpayer money to pay her off and will be himself investigated by the Ethics Committee. I hope this makes my point.

In a break-through for Germany's Chancellor Merkel, the Social Democrats backed formal coalition talks after a divisive party convention today. This should lead to a breakthrough toward her fourth term and an easing of political uncertainty in Europe's biggest economy. She meets with the CDU today and tomorrow to get their backing. It sounds like she's made good progress which in the long term should be bullish the Eurocurrency. Tonight's Senate vote however will overshadow he progress.

NAFTA talks kick off in Montreal today with reports due on January 27th and 28th to key negotiators for a January 29th ministers meeting. I have become more convinced than ever that these meeting will end up resulting in tweaks to NAFTA as long as all parties give a bit. There's simply too much at stake for all not to come to an agreement in the end. Given that President Trump recognizes that July Presidential Election in Mexico means Mexico's current President will not make any commitments, these talks and the tough stances each side takes now are political shows. The real substance will come after a new Mexican President is elected. In the end, I expect tweaks and a deal where all claim victory. In between now and than, currency plays will present themselves.

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. declined by 5 this week to 747 from 752 for the week ending January 19. Natural gas rigs increased by 2 bringing the number of gas rigs in the US up to 189 from the 142 at work a year ago.

OPEC met over the weekend. They agreed to meet again in April before the "big" meeting in June were decisions on oil production cuts will take place. This weekend's meeting resulted in OPEC agreeing to continue working with non OPEC members, namely Russia. They also decided to work on coming up with what they termed a better definition of what the 5-year average price of demand for oil is. Seems to me 5-years is 5-years and any tinkering means they won't be using current data. The Saudi's are said to be getting very close on final decisions of their Aramco IPO. Given Brent Oil is trading at $70, the stated price goal the Saudi's wanted for the IPO. that world stock markets are on fire in terms of rising sharply, that world economies are getting stronger and the few IPO's have taken place recently, I can't imagine what they are waiting for. It can't get any better in terms of timing.

Last week, Piper Jaffray's Simmons division analysts slightly increased their forecast for the total oil and natural gas rig count to an average of 1,004 in 2018 and 1,128 in 2019. The week before they had forecast 996 rigs in 2018 and 1,126 in 2019.

Japan's Business Optimism Index was reported tonight to have risen to an 11 year high/ It jumped to 35 in January from December's 27 reading. The index was last at a reading this high back in January 2007. right before the world economic turn down.

Grains are still trying to work higher, led by soybeans and soymeal.
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  #58  
Old 01-22-2018, 12:35 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Bonds going down in price as stocks rise

March 30 year bonds index (/ZBH8) were falling since November but have kept rising back up until about Jan. 2. Tonight there was a small rise that I took as a selling opportunity. I sold 1 March 30 year bond futures contract (~$33/tick) @ 148 and 26/32.

I have been trying to get short bonds for some time now.
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  #59  
Old 01-22-2018, 04:28 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Bond prices falling nicely. Soybeans that Ira Epstein said were rising, are rising.


Online learning.
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:15 PM
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commentary for 1-22-18 at 11:43am

The Senate just passed an extension to reopen the government. It now goes to the House of Representatives for approval and if approved, onto the President for his signature.

What was agreed to was an extension to fund the government through February 8th and the promise of a vote on the Senate floor concerning a bill about DACA. What that bill will say was not mentioned. In other words the "Dreamers" are still left in limbo, the "chain" as its called was not mentioned concerning family members of those here being allowed to come to the US. In the end they're better off than before today as they know a vote is coming up on their status in 17 days. All that is binding is that there will be vote. Will we be back here with no permanent funding for the government on February 8th? No one knows at this point. However, the odds are now near 100% that the US government will reopen tomorrow fully staffed. Other than some having a day long furlough along with some government parks and museums having been closed, there was no real impact. Was all this necessary?

The immediate market impact after the vote in the Senate was taken was this. Stock indices resumed their rally, the Dollar is waffling between a small loss and small gain. Gold and silver are slightly lower and bonds and notes are pretty much unchanged to slightly lower.

Chicago Fed December National Activity Index: +0.27 , prior month +0.11 revised from +0.15. A total of 37 individual indicators improved in December, but 47 fell, the Chicago Fed said. One stayed the same. In total, 43 contributed positively and 42 contributed negatively.

The above reading out of Chicago are just so-so. Not good but not bad.

Stats Canada reported this morning that Canada's wholesale trade during November was up +0.7% from the previous month. November inventories fell -1.2% from the prior month

The IMF reported today that world output, adjusted for inflation, will grow 3.9% a year in 2018 and 2019, the strongest since 2011, and an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the IMF's forecasts in October

A cargo of US soybeans shipped to China has been the first agricultural trade conducted using blockchain technology. LDC, Bohi, Societe Generale and ABN Ambro took part in the trade where the sales contract, letter of credit, and certificates were digitized on the Easy Trading Connect (ETC) platform.

Crude oil has been all over the board today, meaning higher and lower as the market digests the idea that Russia and OPEC will work together to keep oil prices stable. This means going forward the two will consult each other over pricing concerns. That is being taken as bullish. The bears are looking at prices causing more oil from the US and Canada coming to market. Canadian rig counts have exploded.
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  #61  
Old 01-22-2018, 03:26 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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The March NASDAQ 100 INDEX (/NQH8) kept rising 21 more points @ $20/point in the after-hours extra 15 minutes hitting 6933.25 only dropping in the last two minutes to 6931.
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  #62  
Old 01-22-2018, 03:47 PM
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Wow! The market usually goes nowhere after hours. The 15 minutes from 1500 to 1515 hours are open then it closes until a potty break and reopens at 1530 when it took off again. At 1546 another in a series of new highs were hit. Now a 6940.5 off of a 6941.25 high but still trending up.
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  #63  
Old 01-22-2018, 04:16 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Says it all.

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  #64  
Old 01-22-2018, 06:31 PM
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Nice chart coverage

It shows how much news does affect things

wde
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  #65  
Old 01-25-2018, 05:44 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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This might be important. I will stop posting these reports now. If you wifh to continue getting them, use link below.

Confirm Your Email – Ira Epstein Division of Linn & Associates, LLC.

Commentary for 1-24-18 at 7:29pm

President Trump will be meeting his some of his counterparts in Davos Switzerland tomorrow. On Friday he will make his keynote speech. What he says, how he says it, and what the impact of what he does is a large unknown, one I decided in the financial futures market sector to step away from today

Conference Board US Leading, Coincidence, and Lagging Economic indicators for December will be released at 9:00 am CST Thursday morning. Analysts expect the leading index up +0.5% month over month

US December new home sales are forecast to fall by -7.2% to 680,000 unit annualized pace compared to the previous month's 733,000 unit pace. The data will be updated Thursday morning at 9:00 am CST

Weekly US jobless claims data will be released Thursday morning at 7:30 am CST. The initial claims are seen up by +17,000 to 237,000 in the latest reporting period. Continuing claims were 1.952 mln last week

Through Treasury Secretary Mnuchin today the Trump Administration came out endorsing a weak US Dollar. This occured when Secretary Mnuchin said a lower valued Dollar is good for US trade. The impact was immediate. The US Dollar plunged and most currencies rallied sharply. Metal market rallied off ideas that a declining Dollar will spur on inflation. Commodity prices as a whole as many are traded in Dollars, which when the Dollar falls tends to prop up their prices. Crude oil falls into this category.

Early in the morning we'll get to the European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Announcement. Shortly afterwards we should get a press conference with the bank's President. He will be questioned about the strength being see in the Eurocurrency and its impact on the Eurozone. Expect him to say the bank will continue with its bond buying program as schedule and to dodge questions on when the bank will start to tighten its monetary policy, The question itself has been answered already given the the program in place is due to end in September of this year. If he hints the program could end earlier, it would send the Eurocurrency sharply higher.

In a surprise move, North Korea called for unification of the South Korean boarder and while saying South Korea is not helping matters with its military exercises. Of course no mention was made by their outlets of their missile or nuclear tests and the impact they have had on the peninsula. Propaganda of course, but nonetheless an olive branch of sorts as well.

I will have plenty to write about tomorrow and Friday so I am keeping tonight's message short.






Publication Dates:

Sunday Evening

Twice Daily, Monday - Thursday

Friday Morning
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  #66  
Old 02-01-2018, 05:25 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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The file is too big to fit into the frame. Click to view. It is about Kansas City wheat. /KEH8 I just bought 4 contracts @ 461.

https://download.qtmarketcenter.com/...7330361554.jpg
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  #67  
Old 02-01-2018, 01:41 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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I bought 4 more @459.50 and put in a tight buy stop @ 458 which held. Up $1550 on the trade. This could be the big "home run play" of the year.
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  #68  
Old 02-01-2018, 07:54 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Do you ever trade grain futures?

March hard red KC wheat open 2 cents off of the 469 close. A member can enter this trade.

Please respond if you have any interest or I will stop posting useless info.
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Old 02-02-2018, 12:38 PM
TREY TREY is offline
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Auburn kid do invest in any stocks?
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Old 02-04-2018, 09:51 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TREY View Post
Auburn kid do you invest in any stocks?
Yes. I have my long-term investments in Southern Co. (SO) and others which I do not push because I only keep them because of the taxable event it causes if I sell them. They may not be suitable for younger investors. I am 71 now.

I post investments here that I put in my short-term "fun account".
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Old 02-05-2018, 08:40 AM
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I am taking the summer off.
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Old 02-06-2018, 07:16 AM
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If you have thinkorswim or any other charting program that shows minutes, look at the low at 23088. You will see a shelf that never dips below this number for 23 minutes. Someone's computer program picked that number to buy. For 23 minutes they bought every contract offered. That support sent the DJIA March contract on a 1000 point ride @ $5/point. There are two human points also. At 6:02 the contract fell back to 23,500 and rises to 23,900 then a big selloff occurs. Humans picked the even hundred points entry points.

Buying just above the shelf was a safe entry point.
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Old 02-12-2018, 03:50 PM
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large file. Crude oil going down.

https://www.iraepstein.com/email-ass...1517955989.png
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Old 02-23-2018, 06:41 PM
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Or see Ira Epstein Division of Linn & Associates, LLC. – Ira Epstein Division of Linn & Associates, LLC.
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Old 02-26-2018, 01:02 PM
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The drought in Argentina is getting worse with crop losses potentially on course for historic levels.

May wheat up +9
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