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  #1  
Old 10-13-2014, 02:50 PM
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Another ugly day going into the closing bell

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  #2  
Old 10-13-2014, 03:26 PM
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In your opinion what is next? Is this a good time to invest?
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  #3  
Old 10-15-2014, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Dr. Jack View Post
In your opinion what is next? Is this a good time to invest?


An email I received from my son, who is in the mortgage biz



As far as markets go, this has been the most insane day I’ve ever seen. You have to go all the way back to the Long Term Capital crisis in ’98 to find these kind of panic-induced volatility levels. The price action today and the adherence to technical objectives has been absolutely remarkable From that point forward, the market was glued to headlines; everything from “outbreak” to plunging oil prices to low inflation numbers. A terrible retail sales print (really terrible if you x-out iPhone sales) was the catalyst to drop 10yr yields to 1.86, down from 2.20 at yesterday’s close. Prices on 10yr futures were nearly up 3 points which is the single day limit to halt trading. While mortgages failed to keep pace with treasuries, at one point Fannie 3.5s were up nearly 1.5 points to 105-11. At that point we were scrambling to move down in coupon, buying 3.5 hedges back and selling 3s vs production. For the 5th day in a row, stocks were getting absolutely hammered, with the DOW down 460 points. That all completely changed shortly after 2pm when the Fed hit the panic button. According to two “people familiar with her comments” who met with Fed Chair Yellen last week – who asked not to be named because the meeting was private- Yellen was said to voice confidence in economic expansion amid foreign risks. It doesn’t seem like much and it would have been better if the Europeans had been the calming force, but the statement was enough to take back most of the gains in the treasury/mortgage space and cause the equity markets to change course. Going into the close, the momentum certainly seems to be on the side of equities, not Treasury/MBS markets. With respect to the markets, the Dow closed strong at 16,141, down 173 points. Fannie 3.5s have given up all of the earlier gains, and are now actually down on the day. The yield on the 10yr, after being down nearly 40bps, closed down only 10bps.

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  #4  
Old 10-15-2014, 04:02 PM
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overreaction

this pullback hasn't even hit 10%. People are so used to no volatility that even the slightest move down is spooking people. I am buying here and adding to my positions that have been oversold. Small caps now with the 3rd straight day beating the S&P, economic fundamentals here are still intact and the only way the market really corrects down another 10% is if we fall into a recession. Right now I dont really see that at all and the companies that have reported so far have come in pretty decent
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  #5  
Old 10-31-2014, 06:01 PM
heading south
 
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Originally Posted by rjb1816 View Post
overreaction

this pullback hasn't even hit 10%. People are so used to no volatility that even the slightest move down is spooking people. I am buying here and adding to my positions that have been oversold. Small caps now with the 3rd straight day beating the S&P, economic fundamentals here are still intact and the only way the market really corrects down another 10% is if we fall into a recession. Right now I dont really see that at all and the companies that have reported so far have come in pretty decent
bottom day post, look at volume on SPX, SPY or DOW on 10/15, marked the bottom, higher than normal relative volume.... DOW all time record highs today, crazy fast comeback from mid Oct lows

@duckstocks twitter

Last edited by duckster; 10-31-2014 at 06:04 PM.
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  #6  
Old 11-11-2014, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by duckster View Post
bottom day post, look at volume on SPX, SPY or DOW on 10/15, marked the bottom, higher than normal relative volume.... DOW all time record highs today, crazy fast comeback from mid Oct lows

@duckstocks twitter
I'll admit I didn't think the market would have that sharp reversal back up within a couple weeks but it did and it was a very profitable trade for sure
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