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Old 07-28-2018, 10:37 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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Cryptos and Stocks

I've decided to start this thread for a number of reasons. First, to simply post where and what I'm investing in, and to help me track and to learn. I think it will be beneficial to me to write out why I'm investing in certain things and have it to look back on. I think it's very easy to forget over time the reasons why an investment was chosen and what time horizon I had originally chosen. Looking back at past trades and rational for them is very beneficial for progressing as an investor. Secondly, I'd like to help others learn about possible investments, especially in the blockchain space. Most of my posts in this thread will be about crypto investments, as they have been the focal point of my life for the past 9 months, and I honestly see them as potentially the best investment opportunity ever. However, I also follow and invest in other markets as well.

I plan to disclose my personal positions in everything I discuss in here. i.e. what I already own, plan to buy, or simply things I'm keeping an eye on, but not position sizes, that's irrelevant. I have no ulterior motives for posting here; I'm not naive enough to think that my posts will help "pump my bags." I'd just like to hopefully give back a little bit to people here at Cappersmall as I find it to be a great forum that has helped me learn a lot about sports betting over the years.


*Disclaimer* None of this is professional financial advice, nor should be taken as such. I'm not a professional, despite having a degree in finance and having been an avid investor for 16 years. Opinions are my own. Own your own trades. I'm not looking for praise for winning plays, nor do I expect any bitching about money lost. Don't take my or anyone else's word on investments without doing your own research as well!

Now, onto my top short term crypto trades:
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Old 07-28-2018, 10:49 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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Ethereum Classic (ETC)

Ethereum Classic is a fork of Ethereum. Basically the same thing as Ethereum except nobody actually really uses it. But that's beside the point. The play is on the fact that Coinbase announced it will list it in the coming months on 6/11/2018, a month and a half ago. price obviously has moved a bit since the announcement. It went from around 12.5 to a high of 19, and now sits at 16.86 at time of posting. So of course, a nice move up was missed, but I anticipate a fairly substantial move up once the next announcement comes of the actual date it will be listed. So you may ask why in the hell does it matter if it's listed on Coinbase? First of all Coinbase is the largest on ramp for people to directly buy crypto with fiat money. I don't have the time to look back at the % gains when others like Bitcoin Cash were added, but they skyrocketed in price. Now to be fair, I don't expect a massive move for ETC here. It has already been known for a month and a half, and the type of listing, at least initially, will be different from previous listings. They first announced it going to be listed, next will announce the actual date of trading to be available, and even then it will first just be available for coinbase pro, custody, prime. But not initially for their basic on ramp of buying directly will US dollars. All of the moves Coinbase is implementing is to try to cover their ass from potential insider trading complaints, as was clearly the case when bitcoin cash was added out of the blue, yet price was skyrocketing for a day or two before the official announcement. Given this, I don't expect ETC to 2x or 3x or anything crazy. However I do expect a nice pop of 20-30% once they announce the date that trading will begin, and I anticipate this announcement in the next week or two. A sneaky feeling is telling me it happens this monday (7/30/2018)

Not sophisticated enough to buy actual ETC? Don't worry. ETC is actually available to buy in traditional markets under the ticker ETCG. It's an investment trust that owns ETC but can be traded like a stock. It's ran by the same company that does GBTC, (the only way to trade bitcoin without actually buying it) Of course there are downsides here; there's a premium you're paying, and also can only be traded during stock market hours unlike crypto trading that's 24/7, so you might not be able to get in or out of your position at the desired time. Price is $34.05/share today and was trading at 42 a week and half ago. My target exit for ETCG is $42-45.

I own positions in both currently and plan to sell most likely on the announcement of the actual date it will begin trading on Coinbase. I generally would set a stop limit for for this one I'm opting out because I'm confident I'll be able to flip for a profit in the short term and just don't think it will drop much if any at all before that occurs. I will update when this occurs.

Here's the Coinbase announcement from 6/11 to help answer some questions you might have. Adding Ethereum Classic Support to Coinbase – The Coinbase Blog
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Old 07-28-2018, 11:44 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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Bitcoin (BTC)

First a small intro for that don't know:

Bitcoin is what it's all about when trading cryptocurrencies. Theres 1500+ others ( alt coins) out there. It's debatable about the long term future of basically every one, except bitcoin imo. Bitcoin was the first, and is still by the far the best out there. It's network has never been hacked or interrupted and has stood the test of time. It's evolved over time imo from being a digital currency, to now being more like digital gold, and the new best store of value out there. This is due to its finite number of coins, 21 million, 17+ million of which have been mined, 4 million remaining. While around 3-4 million are though to have essentially lost forever. Therefore there is a natural growing demand over time as supply is so limited. They can never be duplicated, double spent, or otherwise altered. It can be exchanged by the 100 millionth of a single bitcoin, or 1 satoshi as its known. Created 9 years ago, initially $1/BTC it saw its peak at nearly 20k last december, growing 2000% alone in 2017. Since then it has been in an overall bear market, dropping from to 20k to 6k back to 12k back to 6k up to 9k down to 6k, and now sits at 8k. The only question in BTC price in my opinion and many others is not if it will go up wildly again, but when.

IMO the only two ways of the next mega bull run coming again is either another huge influx of new investors (which was the case last year, coupled with the hype of futures trading for bitcoin), or the passing of a Bitcoin ETF. An ETF will not only allow retail investors a chance to much more easily buy bitcoin in traditional ways, but mainly it gives the large institutions the chance to invest where most havent been able to previously. Bitcoin and the whole crypto market in general has been off limits to 95% of the investable money out there, but an ETF changes that. This will undoubtedly cause the price the explode due to the increased demand. Hundreds of millions of bitcoin will have to be purchased to initially fund it, decreasing available supply. On the announcement of an ETF passing, I almost guarantee the BTC price jumps nearly 50% in a day, and I'd guess 300% by the time it is actually trade-able. I firmly believe it will reach 50k within the next 2 years, and possibly in the next 6-9 months. So the question is when? I think the ETF is the more likely catalyst, as i believe that is what will cause the next big wave of new investors.

So it's up to the SEC, who has denied multiple bitcoin ETF's over the past couple years, most recently 2 days ago by the Winkelvoss twins. Bitcoin recently has been trending upwards again for the past month, since its yearly low of 5800. It had built up to 8400, many speculating on upcoming ETF decisions. So the Winkli ETF gets denied, oh shit, is it gonna dump? Nope, a meager 400 dollar drop then the next day regains its losses and now we sit at 8250 at time of writing. But here's the thing, that ETF wasnt going to get passed. There are multiple others up for review now, of which seem way more likely for approval. There's was going to be priced at 01. BTC/share, use their small exchange(Gemini) for spot price, and they would hold the bitcoin themselves. The other two ETF's still up for approval are from a large ETF provided, Direxion, and The CBOE who currently provide futures trading for bitcoin. There ETF proposals are more ofr the institutions, as they will be priced at 25 BTC each, so retail investors wont be able to afford them. This seems the most likely route the SEC will possibly pass, given the new asset nature of bitcoin. Also they will be able to provide insurance for the bitcoin being held. Many believe they will in fact approve one of these ETFs. So When? The Direxion ETF decision must be made by Sept 21st, and will most likely be on that day. The CBOE one, also the seemingly most likely one can be delayed until late February of 2019.

So whats the play? Well in my opinion everyone should be accumulating bitcoin over time whenever the price dips, hold, and hopefully retire early. But I also trade BTC a bit. You can buy more, or gain more buy selling high and buying more back at lower prices. I agree that we are still in a long term bear trend until we can get over 10k and stay there for a week or so. However, i do think that will happen. I've been very bullish for a the last 2 weeks, it really seems like people are getting hyped for the ETF possibility, and at the same time are realizing a little bit that most of the other coins out there are shit and still way overvalued so they are trading back to BTC. And rightly so, because you don't want to be in anything other than BTC when the announcement comes. The way I will be playing this if basically how i play all crypto trades; have it on exchange versus an off exchange wallet so i can have a stop limit set so its sells if a big price crash occurs. This is especially critical in this trade because an SEC denial of Direxion's or CBOE's ETF will probably cause a considerable price crash, unlike the recent denial 2 days ago.

So, the play is to accumulate as much bitcoin as you can until Sept 21st, be sure to have a stop limit set maybe 5% below current price. Upside is upwards of 50% in a day, downside capped at 5%. Then we go from there. If denial of Direxion's another bear market will likely ensue,if it passes, its going to 50k. If denied, then wait until late February at the latest, before the CBOE ETF gets passed. Chance of either passing is anyone's guess. Realisticll it's probably more likely to not get approved but it will be close. I'm guessing Direxions doesn't, but CBOE's does, but not until February 2019. Pretty fuckin easy trade imo. Hold until Sept 21, if dumps, sell and lock in the profits you made leading up to then and hold out until until price starts going up again on anticipation of the next.

*Note: unlike with my previous Ethereum Classic trade, I wouldn't try trading this move using GBTC (tradable bitcoin, similar to an ETF, but a much higher premium and very poorly designed investment trust). Partly due to the fact that the return wont be as high, and the possibility of not being to sell if markets aren't open when the announcement comes. If you don't feel capable of buying bitcoin and transfering to an exchange where you can have stop-limit orders set, or simply don't trust the unregulated exchanges, then GBTC is still an option. It's better than not having any exposure.
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Last edited by Xone; 07-28-2018 at 11:45 PM.
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Old 07-30-2018, 03:28 AM
TN TITAN Fan In STL TN TITAN Fan In STL is offline
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Good write ups Xone,I hope your right.
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Old 08-03-2018, 07:29 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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Ethereum Classic Update:
The Coinbase announcement came 2 hours ago that testing will commence on Aug 7th and will allow inbound transfers starting then, and trading 24-48 hours after that. Price jumped 15%, down to about an 11% gain as of now. Unfortunately the price and the general crypto market had fallen quite a bit in the past 5 days so its sitting close to even now. My sell limits weren't hit due to the drop it had taken so I'm still fully in my position. I was hoping to exit at this point with a nice quick gain but now reevaluating. I'm unsure what price will do over the next 4 days leading up to the listing. I feel like i should just sell and hope to buy back in lower between now and then but instead I plan to set a tight stop limit in case it quickly sells of at this point. Price is at 16.49, down from 16.86, but I am actually up a bit in bitcoin value, as it was 0.00206 btc/etc at purchase and now 0.00222. So i'm setting my stop at purchase price and see if i can still reach my target of 20% gain in the next few days.
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Old 08-03-2018, 08:32 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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Bitcoin Update

So the crypto markets appear to be headed back down. I have actually exited a portion of my position at this point. To clarify, I invest in crypto in two ways. I have 1/2 of my portfolio in bitcoin that is strictly buy and hold for the long term. I don't plan on selling this portion anytime soon, at least not until we get another insane parabolic runup like last december. The other half of my crypto portfolio I trade with; sometime daily, sometimes weekly. That 50% is generally split half bitcoin, half altcoins. So my total allocation tends to be 75% btc, 25% alts. This allocation has changed over time, and certainly will change in the future, but that's a whole another thread.

I've changed my view on the market in the last few days now that it seems apparent bitcoin is still in the bear market and the short term bull run is most likely over. That run almost certainly was primarily on anticipation for the ETF, which now we have until Sept 21st before the next possible one. I was optimistic that we could at least stay at the 8k level until then, but it's just too long in crypto. I think we head back down to at least 6k, but most likely 5k before it turns back up. I think this will occur over the next 3-4 weeks then we will start to pump with the next possible ETF, which will probably get denied, and then will dump again. I'm becoming less and less optimistic that we will see a substantial bull run at all this year. I'm guessing not until the CBOE's ETF in February 2019.

So at this point, my trading portfolio is mostly in virtual US dollars (Tether) other than my Ethereum Classic position and a couple other small alt positions. You may be wondering why i wouldn't just sell all my bitcoin if I think we are heading back down. Two reasons: 1st, I set my portfolio up as a split between active trading and long term hold to reduce variance and partly as an experiment to see which strategy will be more profitable. Historical data shows buy and hold strategy works best, however its also very true that returns from active trading can be much higher if done well. It's hard, but also infinitely more exciting (and frustrating). Secondly, its just better risk management to not be all long or all short. Theoretically I could sell now then buy back in lower thus resulting in more total bitcoin and higher profits. But just because I believe the price will go down in the short term so doesn't mean I will be right or will be able to time the bottom in a way that will result in more higher profits, or that it will even go down from here at all!

That's where i stand at this point, and of course I could change my view at any moment. It's up to each person individually to decide which investment approach suits them best. For most people, I definitely would advise to just buy and hold. It's much easier, you won't have the stress of constant price checking and trying to decide what to do daily, and in the end almost certainly will result in profit, regardless of the price you buy at. (Which in this case I believe Dollar-Cost Averaging to be the optimal buy strategy, whether its on the way down or up) Another option is to actively trade your whole position. If you have the time and skill, this strategy makes the most sense and is most profitable. I mean, why hold during a bear market? Traders look at dips and bear markets as opportunities to increase their position sizes, resulting in my higher profits when the markets turns up. Then there's the mixed strategy I use. The key to any type of investing is knowing which type you are, and sticking to it. It's very easy to get emotional when trading and make bad choices and eventually dwindle your portfolio down over time. Having a mixed strategy like I do takes discipline, but as long as have your two portfolios/accounts separate and can allow yourself to not think about your long term hold account, especially is bear markets, I think it will will work very profitable over time.

I have had a bunch of other topics I feel like writing down but don't have much time ever. I'll slowly roll them out as I have time. Topics include alt coins (and how they are dying and most are scams) Tether (and how it could crash the market soon, but also may be necessary to get a BTC ETF approved) and where I see certain metals markets going, primarily Uranium.

Also I did buy some Twitter (TWTR) stock the other day after it dropped from 43 to 31 over a couple days. I bought at 32.16. I didn't feel like making a whole post for this because I don't have strong reasoning for the play other than seeing it as a big discount, and I'm bullish on the nasdaq and stock market overall right now.
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Old 08-03-2018, 09:29 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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Current price: 7470

Currently Bitcoin is showing strong support at 7200. However, if it breaks below for and stays below for an hour or more shorting it would be high probability trade. It should drop to around 6700 pretty quickly. Conversely, I see resistance between 7700-7800. A break above 7800 would be quite bullish, but I believe its less likely at this point. I've never shorted BTC before due to my raging bullishness on it and general philosophy on shorting, however I'm seriously considering it if it breaks support at 7200.
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Old 08-08-2018, 09:01 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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Trade Updates:
Bitcoin: $6335

I sure wish I had taken that short position at 7200. Instead I sat on my thumbs (well I was at work) and watched the price plummet $1000 over 24 hours due to the CBOE/Vaneck/Solid X ETF being DELAYED. This was the first of 3 possible delays for this ETF that I, and many others, expect to be eventually approved. The market overreaction has been hard to believe considering the Winklevi ETF being denied 2 weeks ago only dropped bitcoin 500 which it recovered back the next day. Also, the market should have expected this delay. There was no way in hell the SEC was approving it withing 45 days of being sent to them. The only surprise was that they delayed it slightly earlier than people expected. Also the fact that we were on a bearish decent at that point certainly has helped expedite the fall.

So where do I stand now? Well my Ethereum Classic trade actually worked out mostly as I expected. My stop-loss never got hit and I was able to watch it run up to over $20 yesterday. I then reset my stop to 19.50, which was hit after the ETF news broke, resulting in a profit of about 16% in USD value. Unfortunately my small holding of ETCG had dropped a lot from purchase price and never recovered, so I'm still underwater in that position and may have to cut my losses soon. It still has room to rise again since ETC still isn't open for trading on Coinbase of today; it should be tomorrow or the next day. Current price is $15.40 for ETC. I'm tempted to get back in hoping for a big pop once its actually trading at Coinbase, but since I still own ETCG I'm standing pat.

Notably, a big surge in the price yesterday was due to Robinhood beating Coinbase to market in listing ETC. Robinhood by the way is a great option for many beginner crypto investors to consider using over Coinbase. They offer "fee free" trading, which is amazing compared to Coinbase's fees. It's still not exactly fee free, they charge a small spread on purchase price (less than 1%) compared to Coinbase who charges about 2% on the spread and another 1% ish in fees. The difference is that on Robinhood you don't physically own your bitcoin which is a pro and con depending on preference. For many this is a great option because you don't have to worry about storing your crypto yourself, however most enthusiasts would never consider this option, as holding your own crypto and essentially being your own bank is one of the main points of crypto in the first place. Furthermore, Robinhood not only has about 20 cryptos you can buy, but is also a traditional exchange offering equities. They are only approved in 19 states currently however. I started using Robinhood a couple weeks ago and am happy with it since i can trade much cheaper. The downside is not being able to transfer and also you can't set stop-limits, which actually really sucks when trying to trade crypto in a 24-hour market.

As far as Bitcoin is concerned, I'm bearish until we are in the 5000's. I believe we will drop to at least 5k, and really it needs to if we're going to get another serious bull run. Other than all the institutional infrastructure that's being built at incredible speed, which inevitably points to bitcoin and crypto having a clear bullish future, there isn't really much to be optimistic about in the market right now. The next ETF decision will be Direxion's around Sept 21, and now also the CBOE/Vaneck/Solid X on Sept 30th. I think the market will suffer until mid September, then should start to run in anticipation once again.

Despite this, I'm considering a long trade tonight if bitcoin can hold around 6300. We dropped so hard so fast over the last 36 hours a small pop seems likely to me. However, I think it will be small and short lived. I'd target an exit between 6700-6800, then go short from there down to 5k, then reevaluate.
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Old 08-16-2018, 01:25 AM
Xone Xone is offline
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Crypto Market Updates
Bitcoin: 6305

Bitcoin fell below 6k briefly 2 days then has since rallied over the last 2 days up to 6600 hundred again for the second time in 6 days now. It hasnt been able to break it while continuing its trend of making lower lows. I'm certain we are headed back down in the next 24 hours, the only question is how low.

The good news, I believe, is that the SEC has to make their final decision on the ProShares Bitcoin ETF's on/by Aug 23rd. These ETF's (really just 1 split between long and short) has really gone under the radar in the crypto community compared to others, which is pretty odd to me. This etf proposal is by a big name etf provider in ProSHares, and is different from previous and other current proposals in that the underlying asset would be futures contracts as opposed holding physical bitcoin. This difference is huge in many aspects. Mainly being that it shouldn't immediatly spike bitcoins price nearly as much.

So while I definitely expect a short term drop in bitcoin's (and especially alt coins) prices in the next few days, I also think we will get another nice move up in the days leading up to Aug 23rd when the SEC will almost certainly rule on this ETF. In all likelihood it will be denied (I'd guess 70% chance of denial) and the market will dump once more. In all honesty I think bitcoins price will be surpressed under 8k for the rest of the year, and range as low as 4k, with 5k being my optimistic low target.

For buy and holders, this sucks. But if that's your strategy (and it is a good one) then stick to it. Bitcoin will reach all times highs again within a year. mark my words. But for traders, this range of 4/5-8k leaves plenty of room to make money if your playing the chart trends and news correctly. For me I sold out of trading portfolio coins earlier today at btc 6500 and am now planning to go short when bitcoin breaks 6200 which i think will be very shortly, and ride it down 5800ish. After I'm in small profit will set a break-even stop-loss. Re-evaluate at 5800.

I'm staying out of alt coins completely for now after selling off my 25% alt allocation today at near 2 day highs for a nice profit. Alts have been getting bled to death especially hard in the last week, had an expected pop a day ago, but now I believe will continue to bleed until many disappear completely. I was going to due a whole write up on where I see the alt market is going soon, but the jist is that I think it's going to implode soon and the majority of coins are going bust. So you don't want to be holding onto these coins for very long IMO. They do however still present trading opportunities, but I think most will be losing trades unless they are short trades until a legit "alt season" is confirmed.

Conclusion:
Short term
(less than a week): BTC breaking down from 6300 to at least 5800, and very possibly (despite that being the yearly low) lower than that.
Short-Mid Term: A small runup in price following the weekly low in anticipation of the ProShares ETF on AUG 23rd (Note that the last 2 decisions were made at around 5 pm EST)
Mid term (8/23-end of 2018): When that ETF most likely gets denied (although the SEC certainly could catch most by surprise here, I think there is a legit shot of approval) then price will dump again (have a stop loss set!) and we will be stuck in the 4/5000-8000 range until a black swan event occurs or 2019, whichever happens first!
Long term (2019-Infinity): "One coin to rule them all" haha lame I know, I've been typing too long I think. But yeah, Bitcoin will continue to boom and bust (like it has during it's 10 year existence) for the foreseeable future, in my opinion. If you'rs is different, I'd love to hear it!
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Last edited by Xone; 08-16-2018 at 01:28 AM.
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Old 08-17-2018, 09:17 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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BTC: 6610

Well I was wrong in the direction the market would go from last post. Alts have been crushing it, with most up 20%+ today and about 40% in the last 2 days. I missed the train on this one, (other than a small ethereum position I took this morning on the advice of a friend which i just closed out up 10%) but my feeling are still generally the same. If I was in alts right now I'd seriously be considering taking profit, or at minimum raising my stop-loss. I still believe the market has a lot of flushing to do. I was expecting a quick drop, then a run-up before the ETF decision on the 23rd. Maybe that drop won't come until the 23rd and we keep running up until the decision, then in all likelihood a big drop down into the 5000's following the denial. But who knows, maybe it's approved and we moon. Will just have to wait and see. I'll be keeping a close, cautious eye on it leading up to then. If BTC gets over 6700 and holds I'll become more bullish in the short term. But be wary of the alt coins, they will reach new yearly lows in the next week I believe.
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Old 08-19-2018, 07:17 PM
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buy on weakness and hodl for the next bull run. I have read, but I haven't seen any proof,but in order for bitcoin to trade on the cboe and cme futures markets the total market cap of btc must be $100 billion dollars. which is right around the $5800 price. It has bounced off that area twice this year which were yearly lows. Could be true or could be coincidence? So for reference that is my bottom. So for now it just a waiting game. It sucks having money tied up and at a loss but, people thought the same thing when btc was $200 for 2 years. I think it will recover much quicker than 2 yrs.

As far as the etf, the more I read the more the I see the possibility that wall street turns btc into a derivitive type instrument for them to manipulate using an etf like gold and silver has been done.. Unless the etf shares are backed by physical btc it takes the scarcity value away. But they must be careful if they plan to do this because btc has its own defense mechanism built in to its code. Btc could get consensus and hard fork to a new coin. And the old coin would be rendered worthless. So only the existing btc would get a forked coin so if there were and extra million coins in the goldman sachs account that were not backed by the original btc, they will be on the hook for settling those million extra coins. So it all comes down to whatever that ends up trading is backed by actual btc held by either the institution or by a custodian to really see a parabolic move imo. If it is written in perfectly clear language that the etf shares have to be backed 100% for sure. I agree with Xone it would probably go to $50k pretty quick. Remember that the coins that are on bitfinex and bitstamp are the coins that control the price, so irregardless if there is a shortage of coins or whatnot, those traders determine the price. The bottom line though is you want to be in for the next run.
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BITCOIN $50K
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Old 08-20-2018, 06:55 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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I've heard that $100 billion threshold number thrown out too, but in regards to an ETF. Although I haven't heard/seen and proof of it being an actual thing so I don't really think it's so. I do think it acts as very strong support among investors though. It's bounced off it twice this year now and hasn't broke below. I can definitely see it happening though will any significant negative news. It's been crazy to watch price decline all year despite regulatory fears subsiding, and the vast majority of news coming out has been very positive in respect to institutional growth and adoption. Good news does very little, bad news causes large drops. Indicitive of a bear market. So i think if the next ETF gets denied on the 23rd we drop below 5800 if btc is still around where it is presently (6450). I think price starts rising up in the next fews days though in anticipation, so hopefully the drop won't take us that low. if we break 5800 or $100 billion market cap it could be a long ways down.

And I totally agree with you that wall street will look to take over btc trading through derivatives products. This could be good long term in terms of decreasing volatility and thus making it able to be used as currency. But I don't think this is the future of bitcoin, rather a store in value (digital gold). And I guess I could see a positive in a futures ETF for the fact that it leaves more bitcoin available to the average person. As far as an ETF that physically holds btc, I've heard the argument form Andreas Antonopolis that there's concern of forks due a custodians large btc holding and them going againt consensus on some change/implementation. This could cause bitcoin to fork and essentially create a "corporate or wall street" bitcoin, and the original bitcoin. I would hope that wouldn't happen, but who knows. I'm definitely more for a physically held btc ETF, but i'm not an expert of all the implications of both options and how it will affect bitcoins' future. I sure hope wall street doesn't ruin it. I believe it could become the future World Currency and that would greatly help the majority of us escape the stranglehold of central banks and governments poor monetary policies. Regardless of how it shakes out, I think we have at least a few more years of amazing investment opportunities, don't miss out!
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:46 PM
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The Proshares bitcoin futures ETF was denied today a day prior to the deadline. I would say the market fell accordingly, dropping a few hundred dollars. Only a few % drop, as speculators expected it to get denied, and price was already near yearly lows. Price sits at 6380 at the moment. I expect it to continue to decline, reaching yearly lows of 5800 in the next few days, possibly another small bounce of that support level, but then ultimately to work its way down to 5000ish. I think this will take some time however, as I believe many people will view anything in the 5000's a good entry point. But once bitcoin spends more time in the 5000/6000 range it will become more the norm. I don't want to sound doom and gloom or pessimistic, just being realistic with how bear markets work. While I think bitcoin will hold its value fairly well in this range, I'm definitely expecting ethereum and most alt coins to continue to suffer more. I'm against shorting bitcoin, however I did open a leveraged short position on ETH at 286 last night (currently 270) and plan to let that ride for some time. Stop now set at 283 to lock in profit.
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Old 08-25-2018, 01:57 PM
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Derivatives are poison. Bitcoin is volatile because of liquidity. Over time the price will rise as adoption becomes more widespread. There will be more applications to solve any volatility. Right now all you need is a bitcoin wallet that would automatically hedge whatever you deposit. If I have 1 bitcoin right now, I can short 1 bitcoin and have a net zero position, so regardless of the price the fiat dollar amount I put into my wallet stays the same. But I think once bitcoin get past a certain price point nobody using it for daily purchases will see any change. Example, btc reaches $250k if it goes up $10k or down the difference on $20 in your wallet will be negligible. But bitcoin as it is right now will not be the way it is spent. From what I see lightning networks will be a sidechain and eventually settled on the blockchain. The bitcoin blockchain probably wont be the layer that people will use. It will be the layer on top of the blockchain imo. No need to worry about custodial forks etc. Bitcoin forks are determined by the consensus among the miners not who has the lions share of bitcoin. Like I said in my other post. Bitcoin was created to get rid of all the banksters and frauds of fake money on wall street etc. If there is any funny business, there can be a forked coin and if the miners follow that forked coin that is the new bitcoin. Lastly we haven't been below $6k for more than 24 hrs. Imo the etf rejection in sept is already baked into the cake. No one is expecting it to get approved so I think to say that would be negative news is not applicable, just my 2c.
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Old 08-25-2018, 09:07 PM
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Great points Roofies, I completely agree. That idea of a wallet where you can hedge seems genius, I've never heard of that idea before. I don't know how it could actually be pulled off (ie shorting bitcoin in a wallet off exchange) but I'm sure its possible.

As far as the ETF rejections, it was nice that the SEC came out and actually denied all 3 pending futures ETFs (Proshares, Direxion, and granite shares i think) at the same time. The direxion was due for sept 30th, now the market doesn't have to fear any potential bullrun getting stomped out by more rejections. I was a little surprised price didn't drop more than it did on the announcement, but I also thought the price was going to be a little higher leading up to it, so I guess not too much of a surprise. It's nice to see the market finally acting more like a traditional market in the sense that foreseeable news isn't causing such drastic price spikes. One thing I found notable about the ETF rejections release was their view of the cme and cboe futures markets being too small to use as underlying pricing for an ETF. While they didn't give a threshold for how large the market should be, I guess the few hundred million per day wasn't sufficient. It may seem like a lot but this is tiny compared to other futures markets. Bitmex is currently doing about a billion dollars a day, dwarfing the cme/cboe, but an unregulated offshore exchange certainly cant be used to price.

So while a lot of the negative news is out of the way, thoughts of ETF's can quiet down for a while, I'm still not convinced bitcoin is ready to go on a sizable run, or that the yearly bottom is in. Price has been ticking up since the news and people are getting optimistic again but I'm still skeptical. We may get a small uptick, but until the trend we're in is broke I'm not making many moves. If we go up I expect 7600/7700 to be the top. We keep getting lower highs, 8250 being the last top, so I'm betting for this trend to continue. That still leave a thousand dollars to the upside but I wont be bullish until we break that mark. my guess is we move up to 7600 then back down to 5k, but it's just a guess so I won't be pushing trades hard.

My tentative plan of how I plan to trade in the short term is to be long bitcoin and short ethereum. I think the alts, primarily erc-20's and those who have ico'd are going to perform poorly moving forward. people are realizing most utility tokens have very little utility (especially on a network that has nearly no activity) and tyhe fear of regulation is becoming more imminent. It's amazing to me that the US hasn't came down hard on ico's yet, but i fully expect that hammer to come down shortly. The SEC is there to protect consumers, and they've been doing shitty job of it. Now, I'm not really for regulation generally, and am for personal responsibility and think that if you're dumb enough to get scammed you deserve it and it's the only was to learn. But the point remains that most ico's are unregistered securities, many are outright scams, and only the projects founders, VC's and angel investors are actually making money while retail investors are getting rekt. So while I may day trade an alt every now and then, I would never do it without a stop-loss and never hold for an extended period. just too much risk. As far as ethereum is concerned, being that most ico's are on the ethereum network, if regulation hits, ethereum suffers (despite it seemingly getting clearance from the SEC as not being an unregistered security, anymore) Furthermore, all these ico's raised money thru ETH, and some some stupid reason, most kept those funds in ETH until they either had to sell to pay expenses, or got fearful of ETh price dropping and panic sold. This has been happening for months and is very clearly a lot of the reason ETH compared to BTC (and price in general) has dropped a ton. I think this trend continues for a while and may actually start accellerating as ico's start fearing for there lives. While I think this will cause a lot of volatility and fear in the market, in the end it will be good for bitcoin. It's hard to guess how it might affect btc price. Maybe price suffers from the whole market dropping in cap, but I could also see it being the reason for the next big bull run. If everyone sells out of alts and ETH they are left with fiat or bitcoin. Hopefully people will be smart and get out of their alts before they have nothing at all left.

I don't want to sound so negative, as I truly love all the technology. There are dozens of very good projects out there, and I believe some will live on and eventually go on to be successfull, but they are few and far between (I'd estimate no more than 25 of the currently 1800+ projects on coinmarketcap are still around in any meaningful way in 2 years) the only coins I feel relatively safe in now are non-ico proof of work coins, primarily actually currency type coins and privacy coins (Stellar, litecoin, monero and maybe nano and ravencoin to name a few)

Since I'm unclear on where the market is heading in the short term, and don't really expect much large movement, I think my idea of being long bitcoin, short ethereum is a good way to hedge to a somewhat neutral position, while leaving good potential for upside if I'm right. The crypto markets have generally run together (example: btc up 5%, alts up 10% and vice versa) but we saw coins decouple from bitcoin for a while earlier this month, and i think this starts happening more. So if they stay coupled, I'm fairly hedged by directional moves, but if they decouple and ETH keeps dropping like I expect than I stand to profit nicely. I've been getting burned out watching markets and trading too much lately, so I think this approach will allow me turn off without worrying much about daily price action, while at the same time should be more profitable in the end by not over trading in a market that has no clear direction.

Damn this post was longer than I expected, but I'm enjoying writing my thoughts out, regardless if anybody is actually reading it or giving a shit.
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Old 08-25-2018, 09:40 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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To follow up on last post, at the moment I don't really have many trades in play yet. my 50% btc hold portfolio is obviously unchanged, but my trading portfolio I'm currently in mostly in tether. My ETH short position I had stopped out at 283 yesterday for a tiny profit which was unfortunate because that was the high for the day and currently sits at 276. I'm waiting for a little confirmation on both btc and eth before opening new positions. btc has been ranging 6680-6780 all day, with 6780 being the high from a few days ago and high since aug 8th. If we break above and hold I'm bullish to 7600/7700. If we get denied and break below 6600 im bearish. For ETH I'm hoping for a higher price before going short again, but a break below 270 probably gets me back in as well. I also hold a small XRP (Ripple) short position which I may use interchangeably or alongside with ETH a lot more in the future. I don't want to rant on now about all the negatives I see in XRP now, but it's definitely a good one to short long term I believe.
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Old 08-26-2018, 02:47 PM
BFDwager BFDwager is offline
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To follow up on last post, at the moment I don't really have many trades in play yet. my 50% btc hold portfolio is obviously unchanged, but my trading portfolio I'm currently in mostly in tether. My ETH short position I had stopped out at 283 yesterday for a tiny profit which was unfortunate because that was the high for the day and currently sits at 276. I'm waiting for a little confirmation on both btc and eth before opening new positions. btc has been ranging 6680-6780 all day, with 6780 being the high from a few days ago and high since aug 8th. If we break above and hold I'm bullish to 7600/7700. If we get denied and break below 6600 im bearish. For ETH I'm hoping for a higher price before going short again, but a break below 270 probably gets me back in as well. I also hold a small XRP (Ripple) short position which I may use interchangeably or alongside with ETH a lot more in the future. I don't want to rant on now about all the negatives I see in XRP now, but it's definitely a good one to short long term I believe.
Reminded me of this article...

Bitcoin’s Price Was Artificially Inflated, Fueling Skyrocketing Value, Researchers Say - The New York Times

Also, your comment about a previous post running long... to paraphrase Hunter S. Thompson, "Writing about something, requires you to think deeply about the subject. I use writing as a learning tool."

I enjoy reading your post along w/Roofies

gl
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Old 09-07-2018, 02:24 AM
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Thanks BFD! I'm just seeing your post now, been away for a while, mainly because I haven;t been very active in trading recently. I know that quote too, Hunter S. Thompson was my favorite writer.

As far as tether goes, i'm still on the fence about it in general. There's no doubt that every time more tether is "printed" and sent to the exchanges it has caused an artificial pump in the market. And I believe those exchanges are manipulating volume and prices to some extent. But at the same time I can see the need for a stablecoin like tether, and as real volume has increased greatly in the last year there is more demand for it. If there wasn't enough tether supply available then its value would increase, hence defeating the purpose of a stablecoin. And it does seem natural to me that when batches of 100-300 hundred million dollars of tether are released into the ecosystem that will naturally lead to an increase in market cap. Then there of course is the concern of whether there is actually the money to back up all tether out there. I go back and forth on my level of concern over it. I think the issue of the money to back it up isn't very concerning ( I would guess they do, or mostly do, or at least bitfinex which basically owns it does) As far as the manipulation, well who knows, there probably is some, but i'm not complaining now, I just hope it doesn't implode and crash the market. I think the biggest concern would be the US gov't seizing it/shutting them down on some basis. And that could be good even. It would more easily pave the way for a more legitimate/auditable stablecoin to take over ( like the one Stellar and IBM are working on)

As far as my recent trades go, I had been employing the strategy I covered in my last post. I had a BTC buy order set at 6850 that was filled when BTC pumped past 7k on 8/27. I then had sell order set to 7480 as I thought 7500 might have some resistance and possibly be the end of the 2-3 bull run. Unfortunately we topped at 7400 and in the massive crash yesterday I got stopped out at 7k for just a small profit. On the flip side, I entered into a short trade on ETH around the same time at 270 which was sitting pretty flat for 2 weeks until the dump yesterday which was lovely! I closed that out yesterday at 230 for a nice profit.

Onto what really matters. What's next? Right now I'm completely out of the market (tether) in my trading account until the dust settles. Yesterday's dump certainly caught me by surprise (as it did everyone) but only because of the size and speed of it. I thought BTC would continue the trend of lower highs and top between 7500-7800 before heading back down to at least 6k but not in 12 hours!! So, I generally think we continue a little lower now, maybe as low as 5k. We could also get a quick dead cat bounce back up a little toward 6700/6800, or could run very flat for a couple weeks. I think that's the most likely scenario right now, that we range between 6 and 7k for a couple weeks. SO i don't have any trade plans on BTC right now, just waiting to see. As far at ETH goes, I'm still bearish here. I only closed my short position out yesterday because I thought we might get a small bounce to the upside after a 20% drop yesterday. That bounce hasn't really happened ( BTC is currently bouncing a little, 6500 at the moment for a low of 6330 yesterday and ETH is at 230 compared to a low of 220 yesterday) Again I want to see what the market is going to do in the next couple days but I'm targeting 250 as a price to go back short again, and then targeting 200ish to close that out. ETH is in an interesting spot. It has just been destroyed from its all time high and BTC comparative all year and doesn't have much support at these price levels. It's actually now down 30% on the 1 year chart compared to BTC +43%. I think the price level that ETh is at now is some support going back 13 months, and 200 might be a psycological support price, but considering everything happening with Ethereum (ICO market hurting, ICO's continuing to sell ETH off to pay the bills, Alt coin market hurting, recent negative change in block rewards for miners, more delays in casper and plasma) there isn't much to bullish about ETH right now other than the fact that it's price has declined so far it might look attractive to some buyers.


Hopefully the market can stabilize. There's so much positive news coming out. So much institutional interest and infrastructure beginning to be built to really make crypto mainstream. And most importantly, there's so much good than bitcoin, blockchain, and cryptocurrencies can and will do for society. It's only a matter of time. 2019 will be HUGE.
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Old 09-09-2018, 08:09 AM
Roofies Roofies is offline
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Guys I am going to give an explanation imo on how the bitcoin market works, take it for what it is worth.
Bitcoin is a confidence game which uses FUD, hype,emotions(anger, envy, greed, euphoria, and the list goes on), lies, fomo or just about any other means to make you buy high and sell low. That is the only way traders can make money. There are no earnings reports or nothing else to base price on other than pure speculation of the highest degree. Pay no attention to the media. They write stories to try to justify why bitcoin went up or down. In the end it is all bullshit.
With that said bitcoin goes up when there are sellers and down when there are buyers. It does the exact opposite of what people think. When someone buys bitcoin trading bots immediately trade against you. I dont care how much you buy. $10 or $10k, the bots sell. Have you ever noticed every time you buy the price always goes down? Unless you are buying into an actual pump chances are you are going to buy and it will go down. And same goes when you sell. You sell and the price keeps rising because the bots are buying. This behavior makes you want to chase price and it brings in emotions whether you believe it or not. you are pissed either way when buying or selling your bitcoin. It keeps falling after you buy and you are mad because you kick yourself because you could have bought in cheaper, or you are mad you sold because the price keeps going up and you left money on the table by selling early.
Example the rise over the last 2 weeks to $7400. People are trying to time and guess correct when the next bull run is going to start. The price action looked good, many buyers and not many sellers so people were thinking maybe this was the start of the bull run and buying. Well those that bought in under $7k were feeling good right? Well its not that easy. If you are going to make huge returns you have to "pay your dues" and more or less prove to the whales and other large traders that you are in for the long haul and not in for a quick buck. So they test you and dump the price like they just did. So you were sitting pretty one day and the next you were at decent sized loss. Some people panic and sell just to be out and relieved. They play right into the hands of the whales. That is where the term hodl comes in. You never ever sell especially on a dump. Chances are some deep pockets just bought in and the whales are dumping the price to see if they will cave and sell or they plan on holding. When bitcoin crashed from $20k down to whatever, I personally believe that some entity bought a HUGE position and the whales just dumped everything to get them to sell or lock them in to their coins at a loss and force them to baghold. The bitcoin market cannot be bought up higher like the stock market. If someone comes in and buys $10 million worth of bitcoin, it doesn't matter because the bots are going to trade right against that amount and people may never know this purchase even happened. This is what happens on OTC(over the counter trades). These involve millions of dollars buying and selling btc off the markets, so no one knows. So look at it this way when the price is going down its a very good chance that bots are trading against new money that has entered the market trying to scare them into selling because they are seeing huge losses, and it works. I know because it has happened to me and yet through the years the price has always recovered and gone on to new all time highs, just like it is going to do this time. And if it doesnt for some reason so be it, but I just cant see bitcoin failing at this point in time. Bitcoin is such a psychological game you just need the right mind set if you are going to follow price action which most people do. Dont get mad when the price dumps, look at it as a buying op. And when it rises take it in stride because it will dump eventually. Ask yourself this, could you weather a price drop from $50k to $10k? Well if you want $100k per coin you better be able to. The money that is going to be thrown around in bitcoin in the future is going to be sick. Have a number in your head and dont plan on selling until that number is reached. You can take some profits but from time to time and treat yourself but the idea is to accumulate as much bitcoin as you can. During last years bull run I took some profit at $19k ish but for the most part I am still hodling everything. You would have had to be pretty lucky to sell everything at $20k and have bought back you position now. That scenario is extremely unlikely. There have been so many bounces and fake rallies in the past 9 months if you tried to time your reentry you would have been wrong many times and would have led to giving back profits, rather than just holding and not having to worry about buying back.
The longer you are in the more stripes you will earn and the more you will understand the dynamics. Its going to be a bumpy ride but its going to be worth it.
G/l All
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Old 09-26-2018, 12:11 AM
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Guys I am going to give an explanation imo on how the bitcoin market works, take it for what it is worth.
Bitcoin is a confidence game which uses FUD, hype,emotions(anger, envy, greed, euphoria, and the list goes on), lies, fomo or just about any other means to make you buy high and sell low. That is the only way traders can make money. There are no earnings reports or nothing else to base price on other than pure speculation of the highest degree. Pay no attention to the media. They write stories to try to justify why bitcoin went up or down. In the end it is all bullshit.
With that said bitcoin goes up when there are sellers and down when there are buyers. It does the exact opposite of what people think. When someone buys bitcoin trading bots immediately trade against you. I dont care how much you buy. $10 or $10k, the bots sell. Have you ever noticed every time you buy the price always goes down? Unless you are buying into an actual pump chances are you are going to buy and it will go down. And same goes when you sell. You sell and the price keeps rising because the bots are buying. This behavior makes you want to chase price and it brings in emotions whether you believe it or not. you are pissed either way when buying or selling your bitcoin. It keeps falling after you buy and you are mad because you kick yourself because you could have bought in cheaper, or you are mad you sold because the price keeps going up and you left money on the table by selling early.
Example the rise over the last 2 weeks to $7400. People are trying to time and guess correct when the next bull run is going to start. The price action looked good, many buyers and not many sellers so people were thinking maybe this was the start of the bull run and buying. Well those that bought in under $7k were feeling good right? Well its not that easy. If you are going to make huge returns you have to "pay your dues" and more or less prove to the whales and other large traders that you are in for the long haul and not in for a quick buck. So they test you and dump the price like they just did. So you were sitting pretty one day and the next you were at decent sized loss. Some people panic and sell just to be out and relieved. They play right into the hands of the whales. That is where the term hodl comes in. You never ever sell especially on a dump. Chances are some deep pockets just bought in and the whales are dumping the price to see if they will cave and sell or they plan on holding. When bitcoin crashed from $20k down to whatever, I personally believe that some entity bought a HUGE position and the whales just dumped everything to get them to sell or lock them in to their coins at a loss and force them to baghold. The bitcoin market cannot be bought up higher like the stock market. If someone comes in and buys $10 million worth of bitcoin, it doesn't matter because the bots are going to trade right against that amount and people may never know this purchase even happened. This is what happens on OTC(over the counter trades). These involve millions of dollars buying and selling btc off the markets, so no one knows. So look at it this way when the price is going down its a very good chance that bots are trading against new money that has entered the market trying to scare them into selling because they are seeing huge losses, and it works. I know because it has happened to me and yet through the years the price has always recovered and gone on to new all time highs, just like it is going to do this time. And if it doesnt for some reason so be it, but I just cant see bitcoin failing at this point in time. Bitcoin is such a psychological game you just need the right mind set if you are going to follow price action which most people do. Dont get mad when the price dumps, look at it as a buying op. And when it rises take it in stride because it will dump eventually. Ask yourself this, could you weather a price drop from $50k to $10k? Well if you want $100k per coin you better be able to. The money that is going to be thrown around in bitcoin in the future is going to be sick. Have a number in your head and dont plan on selling until that number is reached. You can take some profits but from time to time and treat yourself but the idea is to accumulate as much bitcoin as you can. During last years bull run I took some profit at $19k ish but for the most part I am still hodling everything. You would have had to be pretty lucky to sell everything at $20k and have bought back you position now. That scenario is extremely unlikely. There have been so many bounces and fake rallies in the past 9 months if you tried to time your reentry you would have been wrong many times and would have led to giving back profits, rather than just holding and not having to worry about buying back.
The longer you are in the more stripes you will earn and the more you will understand the dynamics. Its going to be a bumpy ride but its going to be worth it.
G/l All
Great post, I appreciate the insight from someone who's been in much longer than me. I cant argue against the logic long term holding, it has definitely been an extremely profitable play throughout the existence of bitcoin, and one that I certainly expect to continue. I'm not sure to what extent I agree with ya on bots counter-trading against your every purchase though. I know there many situations of bots trading for both individuals and exchanges, but a bot cant countertrade everyone simultaneously. The price will go up if more buyers than sellers and vice versa. price only goes down when you buy if you buy at the wrong time. But will eventually go back up anyway in bitcoins case. It's like you said, a psychological game played by geniuses, whales, and exchanges. I agree, very difficult people to trade against. Especially the exchanges that have the insider info and YOUR COINS to trade with. Not to mention insider info most altcoin's owners/developers can/do use to manipulate their coins price.

It's definitely a long game, but i'm a fool and will still continue to try to time the swings from time to time.
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Old 09-26-2018, 01:13 AM
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BTC 6384

Been a while since my last post, partly being lazy/busy, but mostly that I just havent traded much lately. Since the big dump earlier this month from 7400 to 6150 I've just been waiting for a lower entry price in the 5000's or some indication that we are into a sustained bull run. For the latter to be the case right now I'd say that would be a price above 8500. And even then I'm not very bullish until we break and hold 10k, so a fairly tight window for profit, but also a high probability trade in my opinion. I would much prefer to buy heavily somewhere in the 5000's, as low as possible obviously, but will have to wait and see how price action goes. Bitcoin has only dipped below 6k, to around 5850, twice this year now. This is also the psychological level of a $100 billion market cap for bitcoin. I still believe the bottom has not been found, despite us bouncing off this level multiple times now. I don't think bitcoin will drop below 5k, maybe ever, although it is certainly possible. I just don't think enough time has passed, and enough people have felt the pain of losses long enough for max capitulation. Also i think the fact that most altcoins are still overvalued is a major reason prices continue to be depressed. My conspiracy is that the bitcoin whales are manipulating the prices of altcoins down to legitimate valuations, or trying to destroy them completely. This is easily down by swinging bitcoin in relatively small ranges as it has been for months now. Due to altcoins 2-3x coupling with bitcoin, when bitcoin rises they do more, and then when it falls alt crash harder than they rose. Most alts are down 90% from january highs, but for many there current valuations are still 1000's % up from inception (most in less than a year's time) and have valuations much higher than they should considering they have no product, or users (Not to mention coins don't equal equity!) Anyway, I got off subject slightly, but I believe bitcoin won't have a sustained bull run this year, despite all the moves in the right direction for mainstream adoption that are beginning to happen. Things just take time. Especially technology ADOPTION. It's funny that a lot of the fuel for wild speculation in crypto currencies is due to blockchains abundant possibilities for advancement in efficiency and an ability for a trustless, immutable, unconfiscatable currency that can't be manipulated by inflation, yet the reality is that technology is advancing much quicker than humans ability to keep up with it. It will just take time for both the technology to advance further, and then even longer for people to commit to change for the better. Hopefully people begin to understand now, so that gap between when cryptocurrency is really ready for mainstream adoption and when people are ready to embrace it won't be too long.
In retrospect, if you would have bought bitcoin every time it hit 6200, and sold every time it hit 7400 you'd be up over 60% this year. Not bad considering if you had just bought it once at 6200 you be up about 3% right now. 6200-7400 is a great gain, people just too greedy and hold on longer thinking the next mega bull run has begun, despite there being no real catalyst. There's only two ways to trade/invest/own bitcoin. Buy and hold for years (which is good and what I do with half of my bitcoin investment) or trade the smaller swings (weekly-monthly) and take profit earlier that you think you should. I try to never let a winning trade go negative. Once in profit set break even stop limit. As price rises slowly move stop limit higher to lock in real profit, but not raising it to high to get stopped out on a small swing back down before he bigger move up. The natural volatility, coupled with most of the exchanges being able to counter-trade you and go stop hunting(easier when they know where your stops are set!) has resulted in my stops getting hit too often. It's the toughest part about trading crypto imo. You can't trade without them imo because of the ability for a 30% dump at any moment, but then again you get these crazy wicks that can move double digits easily where price will bounce up or down and back again within minutes or seconds. So even a 10% stop loss can get trigger and bounce back up completely screwing you over. Point being, its tough. And thus, take profit when it's there! 10% gains are good gains, especially when it's in a week, or a day! Crypto traders are the greediest bunch out there. You just need to wait for a good set up/entry point at strong support level, set stop even stop loss once in small profit, then ride the wave up, increasing stop limits and limit sell orders along the way. Then, unless you are certain we have begun the next mega bull run, take profit and either short once it begins going down or simply wait for it to drop. rinse, repeat.
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Old 10-10-2018, 01:20 AM
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BTC 6550-6600

Bitcoin has been stuck in a very tight range between 6400-6700 ever since my last post 2 weeks ago. Volatility and volume have been at yearly lows. I don't bitcoin has moved more than a % in either direction for over a week now.

So the obvious questions are how much longer will this continue, and when it breaks which direction and how violently?
Short answer: who fuckin knows.
Longer answer: My gut feeling is that it's about to break either way very soon, like within the next 24 hours. Direction? Very unsure. Despite bitcoin seemingly running flat for the last few weeks, it has actually been slowly working it's way up, continuing to make higher lows. So I'd say the chart is looking more bullish than not right now. Also there continues to be positive news around crypto with more and more big institutions getting invested and laying framework for trading products for both retail and institutions. From what I hear about OTC (over the counter) markets the volume has been very strong for months and hasn't been slowing. This is a major reason bitcoin price hasn't been moving much lately since OTC trades don't affect market price. At first I thought well who cares if volume is high, there still needs to be sellers to match buyers, so just because buying demand is high what does that matter. Well the primary sellers are the large miners and primary buyers are large institutions. Most miners have a need to sell to pay operating costs, even though many would probably prefer to sit on it until price moves up to attain higher profits. If they sold on the open market it would drop price to sell such large amounts, and they are actually able to sell at a premium in the otc markets because of the high demand, and they big players are willing pay that premium because they too don't have the ability to buy large amounts through exchanges without driving price up. It seems apparent to me that the smart money (institutions, savvy investors, people in the know) are stacking up at reasonable price levels, and doing it in a way that keeps price at that low level until they have accumulated as much as they can. So long story short, the environment seems pretty bullish to me. That being said, I am still in the belief that bitcoin will drop below 6000 again soon, and ultimately down to around a low of 5000 this year. If I'm forced to guess bitcoin's next move after this tight range breaks it's that it will drop violently to the yearly low of 5850, bounce of that support level briefly, then down to 5k by the end of October. But I could be wrong. If my assumption that the big players are buying all they can below 6500, then they should certainly be buying hard all the way down, making it difficult to drop too far. Who's knows, I'm obviously uncertain. Hence the reason I'm not really trading or making large long term decisions still.

I have however been making a number of great alt coin trades recently in this sideways market I'll touch on briefly. Stellar (XLM) is one of my favorite coins and one that i trade often. I've been meaning to do a whole writeup on XLM just havent got around to it. Lately it has lost legs as it was somehwhat following Ripple's (xrp) insane pump recently, but since that pump is ending, so is XLM's, for now. I expect XLM to be listed on Coinbase soon, which will give it a great pump. current price about $0.245
Another great trade recently I somehow caught right before it began to pump is Tron (TRX) It was my first trade ever on this shitcoin, and it came at a great time. I bought in at about $0.021, topped about $0.028, down to $0.025 right now. Sitting at support level, I have my stop set at $0.024, and a preliminary sell target just under 3 cents.

Conclusion: Same mid/long term plan as before. Targeting 5k price for going big long term, but also have smaller buy orders set at $5850 as I think price will bounce at that level regardless if its just briefly or long term. I'm confident you can't go wrong buying bitcoin at that price. If price breaks up from here, Ill be a buyer on my trading account if price break resistance at 6800, but will be very cautious moving forward from there, taking profit when it's there to be taken.

Afterthought on another reason for low volatility recently: Retail investors are completely bored with bitcoins lack of positive price movement. All the degenerates, gamblers, fair weather traders, inexperienced traders have either lost all their money are left the market for the time being. I feel like the majority of the massive price spikes up or down have been whales preying on the aforementioned. They can market buy or sell a large amount ( which will cost them money on the slippage) but they make up for it by both having leveraged trades on other sites and also by others fomo buying or panic selling when they see the price spike. Or simply by causing stop limits to trigger adding fuel to the pump. But without the help of the gamblers and fish, these manipulative plays aren't nearly as effective, if at all, since the only remaining traders are smart enough to realize their game and not taking the bait. Thus, price stagnation.
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Old 10-10-2018, 02:00 AM
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Stocks:

The stock market is finally showing some volatility as bitcoin has screeched to a halt. My favorite recent trade has been on volatility, VIXY. An ETF that reflects the movement of CBOES VIX volatility index. I bought about 10 days ago at $21.87. The trade was based mainly on the 1 year chart. Volatility was at yearly lows, hitting that low once earlier in the year before spiking up 100% in about a 2 week period. Volatility can only go so low before it has to go up. I'm sure the price of this ETF could go lower if volatility stayed stagnant, but it looked like a can't miss trade, and sure enough it starting jumping last thursday. It topped about $25.22 the other day, currently at $24.02. I'm not taking profit yet on this trade though, in fact planning to add to my position as I think volatility continues to increase. The beauty in VIXY is that you can profit on upwards aor downwards moves. I think it is more likely that the stock market keeps correcting lower, possibly down to the index's 200 day moving averages, at which point I think they bounce sharply higher after that needed correction, with the help of strong expected earnings upcoming. Definitely something I'd suggest watching.

Another trade I haven been in for a couple months and am looking to add more for the long term is in Uranium. This is another one I've been planning to do a big write-up on since I first entered the trade but for now I'll make it short. Uranium prices have been getting crushed for the last 8 years since that big nuclear meltdown in Japan in 2011. japan closed all their nuclear plants and worldwide demand has dropped a ton, but it's definitely looking like it's about to come back strong. Japan has been in the process of reopening plants, and china is going all nuclear and liquid natural gas. Also many developing nations are building nuclear plants now. Demand is coming back and for a commodity that is selling for $27/pound compared to $140/ lb in 2008, that sets up for serious potential. Two options to look at for trading uranium equities are an etf URA, or the biggest and best miner, Cameco (CCJ)
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Old 10-12-2018, 01:48 AM
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BTC 6200

Bitcoin finally made it's move after weeks of stagnation, just as I expected, dropping about 350 bucks in an hour. Price now sitting at the 6200 support level that has been a great buying spot over the past 6 months, but this really doesn't feel like a good time to buy imo. Still being patient and expecting lower prices in the near future. There's really no good reason for bitcoin's price to rally at the moment.

There is a lot of concern in the market currently pertaining to Tether and bitfinex which is the most likely reason for the recent drop. Tether's $1 peg has dropped to around .98 cents, while other stable coins are now trading at $1.02-1.03, showing that people are willing to eat 2% to be in a safer "stable coin" This more interesting impact Tether's price is having is in the discrepency between BTC prices between different type's of exchanges. BTC price on Coinbase has been trading around $100 less than prices on most exchanges that utilize Tether, and last during during the dump it was a $200 difference. This could be the beginning of the downfall for Tether, considering new stable coins have been coming out left and right recently. In my opinion this can she seen as very positive. Tether has been the main stable coin and has grown to huge market cap all while not being transparent with their cash reserves which has always caused concern for many. Tether becoming insolvent and crashing would inevitably result in a market crash. But fortunately there have been a half dozen alternatives coming out, so at this point (or at least in the near term) the demise of Tether probably would be ok, and possibly even great for the crypto market as a whole.

I do have a limit buy order set at 6010 on my trading account (hoping it gets filled before Tether tanks!) This is reflective of both the 5850 yearly low support (adding 100-150 for the "Tehther premium" on Binance where I trade mostly, and also the fact that 6000 should be another pyschological support level. I expect a bounce from this level for sure, but kind of doubt it will be anything significant. I would plan to sell half at a small gain, at about 6200, with a stop loss then set somewhere around 6100, and a remaining sell order at 6500. However The trade isn't risk free by any means, especially if my buy order hits while I'm asleep, bounces very briefly before i can set sell orders and stop losses, then dumps below 6k. It's definitely a better trade if it occurs while actually watching the market, but I'm taking the gamble.


Also, keep watching the VIXY etf, up 20% since i mentioned 2 days ago. I'm still in the trade with my stop loss at $28. Closed today over $30. I don;t expect this to go much higher, but we'll see how much crazier this stock market dump lasts. I think this is just a correction ( and much needed). I think once the index's hit move down to their 200 day moving averages (which aren't far off now) they will hold support and could be a great entry into equity markets. I'll be watching closely and am ready to deploy capital if opportunity presents itself, but for the mean time I'm not panicking on current stock holdings. If prices break 200 day MA and stay under for a few days I'll become concerned.

Good luck out there everyone, tread carefully, move slow and don't panic. The sun will come out tomorrow
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Old 10-15-2018, 11:14 AM
Mr.nikels Mr.nikels is offline
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Thank you guys so much for creating this thread. I have been all over the web looking for an intelligent space to discuss my trades and trade ideas without ridicule. I would like to hear thoughts on the recent spike that broke the 6800 level. I know most see it as a bullish sign but after reading these threads. I am watching.
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