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  #26  
Old 10-16-2018, 05:27 PM
Roofies Roofies is offline
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bitfinex price actually went to $7700. most likely a short squeeze due to the fud around tether coin(usd in coin form on exchanges) and traders fleeing it and buying bitcoin instead. you witnessed what btc can do in a moments notice, up $1500 in an hour is sick. more to come.
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  #27  
Old 10-16-2018, 09:28 PM
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Wow, crazy few days in the crypto space, all fueled by concerns over Tether and Bitfinex as I mentioned in my last post. Sunday night bitcoin shot up 10-15% momentarily depending on exchange, a clear result of people fearing Tether could implode so many converting into Bitcoin and other alt coins and stable coins. Tether's $1 peg had been trading around 98 cents then dropped all the way to 85-90 cents at one point. Other newer stable coins grew to almost $1.10! In the last day, fears have subsided somewhat, with Tether now back to 97-98 cents and other stable coins back down to around $1.04. Bitcoin has come back to earth somewhat as well. However, a substantial difference in BTC prices between exchanges still exists due to Tether being traded sub $1. In my mind, the "real" price of BTC is what it's being traded on non-Tether exchanges. You might think there are good arbitrage opportunities to be had with such a price difference, but you're taking big risks to do so. Example: If you buy 1 BTC on Coinbase then transfer to bitfinex or Binance where it's trading a few hundred dollars higher, to sell you need to convert it into either Tether, Tru USD, or Paxos. You can certainly do it into Tether if you think Tether isn't going to implode and will make it back to $1, however you risk Tether going to 0, so you are essentially risking 100% to make about 3%. And if you sell it for another stablecoin (TUSD or PAX) that are trading at 1.04, its just a wash for time being, and when they go back to their peg you lose 4%. The same goes if you buy Paxos (a fully regulated and verified stable coin) through their website for $1, then transfer to exchange, sell for 1.04, but into what? Again, if you have faith in Tether, then there's an easy 4%, or into bitcoin at an 3-4% inflated price.

Tether's implosion could go many ways. If it's a slow bleed out like has been happening recently, bitcoin's price should continue to rise as people sell there Tether. This would be ideal imo. Not because it will give BTC a short term rise (because that is essentially artificial) but because it will remove Tether from the space slowly, while giving way to better, more regulated and transparent stable coins (something the space desperately needs for new people to come in, which is the only way BTC will continue to rise over time) all while not crashing the market. This is the other possibility that's very real if Tether crashes at any moment. In this scenario, people wont have the opportunity to sell into other coins, they could just lose all their money, and the market could crash hard. Hopefully this doesn't happen, but it could, so I'm taking precautious measures.

It's really hard to gauge whether or not Tether is going to crash. It obviously doesn't look good, being that it has been under $1 for 2 weeks now and hasn't recovered. but this has been due to Bitfinex (which started and own Tether I believe) having banking issues. They have had to change banks which is causing all the fear in the market. USD deposits have been closed, but apparently just reopened today. Bitfinex apparently has a new bank, and they have been assuring everyone that everything is ok. Only they really know if they are solvent or not. If so, they are probably making a killing buying Tether from its customers and selling them inflated bitcoin, when prices stabilize they sell Tether back for bitcoin and have just made a killing. A part of me thinks this is the case and everything will be just fine for Tether and bitfinex, at least in the short term. I would think if Tether and bitfinex were going under they would have by now. Also they shouldn't have been able to get another bank account if they weren't fine, but hey it's overseas banking so anything is possible. Maybe they are just waiting for tether to stabilize so they can buy back bitcoin, completing their arbitrage, then exit scam. Or maybe it just continues to hang where it is around 97-98 long enough for other stable coins to gain traction, then dies off simply because nobody will use it anymore since they have better, regulated options. This is what I think is the most likely scenario. It will just take some time for other stable coins to grow in popularity. There are 2.5 billion Tether out there and only 50 million PAX and 160 million TUSD. That's why their peg have risen above $1, due to the high demand and small supply (not anything wrong with the way they are pegged to keep them stable at $1) In order to get more in circulation people or exchanges have to buy these coins from their sponsor companies in order for new ones to be created. I looked into buying PAX yesterday from their website, at the time thinking of possibly going for the arbitrage opportunity despite the high risk, but then changed my mind on it, however I think I'm still going to because once the market stabilizes it seems like a cheaper way to buy new Bitcoin. Instead of buying on Coinbase or somewhere else with USD and paying 2-4% to do so, i figure i can buy PAX, transfer to Binance, and buy bitcoin for zero in fees. I began setting up an account on Paxos website last night. They do full KYC verification, so I have to wait a few days for that to happen, which is fine since PAX and BTC are still high premium so the opportunity isn't there yet. I'm not sure if there are any fees associated with buying PAX straight from the company, but I doubt it. Either way, I think it would be very beneficial to the crypto space for everyone to do so. I think stable coins are very important for the market because many people want to be able to sell their coins into virtual USD if they see market risk. People don't like that if they see the market going down they have to sell there alt coins into bitcoin, still leaving them will a lot of volatility. Eventually their will be more regulated exchanges where people can move in and out of coins right to actual USD, as you would with stocks in your brokerage account. However, stable coins will still continue to be very important if crypto is to become what many see it as: a peer-to-peer currency that isn't controlled by government. What's holding this back right now is the volatility of crypto. You can't have all your money in something that moves multiple % points daily, thus stable coins. They are needed for crypto adoption imo. Thus people (and exchanges mainly) need to start buying them to meet increase supply and meet user demand. Then Tether can die, and there will be much for faith in the market. Then institutions will get in. Then Moon.

All in all, the recent days have seemingly worked out well for me. My trading account is up 15% in the last 2 days so I'm happy. I'm still unsure at where my money should be though however. I've been in and out of Tether, bitcoin, alt coins, and PAX unsre of where to park my money, but somehow I'm up through all of it. However at this point I'm not wanting to risk anything, so I just moved most of my trading account over to a derivatives exchange and have shorted bitcoin at 2x leverage. Not because I think bitcoin is going down, but rather to hedge my long term bitcoin holdings. So right now I'm essentially equal long and short, without having the risk of holding Tether, or paying the fees to sell BTC into USD. I think this is the optimal play right now with all the uncertainty. Another option is to simply short at 1x leverage on a derivatives exchange. Shorting at 1x is essentially the same as being in a stable coin. I'm not sure on the math and how this works, but it does. Your only risk then is counter-party risk (risk of having money on exchange)

I'm still not very confident of this market short term, I think there's a very good chance bitcoin falls to 5k soon as I've been predicting for a while. On the flip-side institution involvement continues to grow with BAKKT on track to open in December, and now Fidelity has announced they are opening BTC custody and trading for institutions. This is HUGE. Custody and insurance are the two things keeping institutions out of crypto right now, but with a mammouth like Fidelity now about to offer it, things could begin to change quickly. There's still no guarantee all of these things will result in a bitcoin mega bull run. Fidelity for example is just going to buy and sell bitcoin on behalf of customers via OTC markets, so price won't directly be affected. Still, I think there's little doubt this will increase adoption, awareness, etc. which will in turn increase price. That's really the only thing that affects price; adoption/use. The BTC price over the last year is simply a product of this. price rose very sharply outpacing actual adoption/use, and now has come back down to near a realistic historical adoption curve. I think its still a little high considering how often people actually use BTC for transactions, but its getting close. Most people know about bitcoin now. However most don't actually understand it, and even fewer actually own it, and even less actually use it. Once institutions get in, and stable coins exist that people can trust, the large percentage of people that know of bitcoin but haven't bought because of lack of trust will realize that it's legit, then the next bull run will occur.
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  #28  
Old 10-16-2018, 09:33 PM
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As far as the stock market goes, all 3 major indexes went down to their 200 day moving averages a few days ago, and have bounced very nicely since, just as I predicted. Now the only question is whether it be be sustained for is it just a dead cat bounce of support before dropping more and breaking through the MA. If this happens, stocks and our economy as a whole is in big trouble, as there isn't much support below the 200 day MA. (it hasn't been broke since Aug 2015) Today the market rose sharply, over 2% most indexes. I was expecting a somewhat slower climb back to all time highs, but we are getting into earnings season now so earnings will mostly dictate the direction of the market. Hopefully they don't disappoint..
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  #29  
Old 10-19-2018, 10:51 PM
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BTC 6390

It's been a quiet few days since all the Tether/Bitfinex drama began, and for the most part I think that can be seen as a good thing. Tether hasn't imploded, bitfinex hasn't gone under. Stablecoin and bitcoin prices among exchanges have narrowed the gap some, with tether now trading over 98 cents and other stablecoins down to about 1.02 and thus bitcoin prices between tether and non-tether exchanges less than a $200 difference. So obviously fears in the market have subsided some, but we're clearly not out of the woods yet since difference in prices remain. Fortunately, the major exchanges must have seen my last post when I called for them to start buying more alternative stablecoins (just kidding) as news came out the next day that many of the largest exchanges were listing multiple new stablecoins, and Pax apparently selling $500 million of their new coins recently, a massive spike from their current $40 million in circulation. So the moves are obviously being made to create competition for Tether which is a very good thing for the market moving forward. The question remains as to why prices haven't begun to move up, especially considering the incredibly bullish news of Fidelity and ICE's BAKKT coming to market in the next few months which will finally allow large institutions to get into the market. Prices are at yearly lows, which have been a great buying spot all year, yet buying isn't outpacing selling. I think there's a few reasons. One, we're in a bear market, so good news just doesn't affect price the way it would in a bull market. Two, the Tether/Bitfinex concerns stool loom. Three, Bitcoin is a hype/fomo market filled with inexperienced traders, so most won't start buying until they see the price going up. Most won't until they see confirmation that we are on an uptrend. And still many more will wait until the top to buy. Another factor could be the recent stock market fears. If the stock market keeps declining I think it's more likely bitcoin price will suffer also since it's such a speculative and volatile asset. If people pull out of stock they aren't going to put it into something riskier, they are more likely to pull out of bitcoin as well if they own both, but certainly not transfer from stocks to bitcoin. It's very possible the last bull run from last year had extra fuel from people that had made a lot of money in stock over the last 10 years so they felt they had extra money to speculate with. And there are most likely many other factors I don't know of, but given all these factors, I can see why price isn't moving up. I don't necessarily think this means price must go down from here, it could stay stagnant longer, but I'm still of the belief the market hasn't reached capitulation. Thus, even though I don't think it's a bad time to buy bitcoin, I still think we see lower prices to buy in. And I think this is the thinking of the majority large players out there, both institutional and individual. I'm starting to ramble as always so i'll end it now.

I'll wrap it up with some advice to keep in mind. All that matters is how much bitcoin you own. This especially applies to altcoins. It doesn't matter what an altcoin is valued at in USD, only if it is increasing in BTC value. You can't sell your altcoins for USD, you sell them for bitcoin. Altcoins should only be traded to increase the amount of bitcoin you own. Bitcoins price in the short term doesn't matter, because we all believe it will increase over time. It's nearly impossible not to over time given the tokenomics of it. So if you trade on exchanges, the dollar value of your portfolio shouldn't matter nearly as much as your BTC equivelant. If that is increasing over time through trading, even if your dollar value is decreasing, you are winning.
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  #30  
Old 10-28-2018, 09:33 AM
Roofies Roofies is offline
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my observation/take on the stability of bitcoin price over the last couple weeks. dont get used to it. what you are witnessing is bitfinex unwinding its price down to get into parity with bitstamp. i dont like seeing things like this because what you are seeing is obvious manipulation among whales. bitstamp whales are keeping the price steady at $6400 and whales at bitfinex have brought their price down a few hundred in the same time period. prices are now less than $100 apart. once the prices come to an equilibrium I think we see a massive short squeeze and shoot up. there just isnt much meat left on the bone to short btc at these levels and the traders know this. i am still very confident the bottom is in and the only way to go is up.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Roofies View Post
my observation/take on the stability of bitcoin price over the last couple weeks. dont get used to it. what you are witnessing is bitfinex unwinding its price down to get into parity with bitstamp. i dont like seeing things like this because what you are seeing is obvious manipulation among whales. bitstamp whales are keeping the price steady at $6400 and whales at bitfinex have brought their price down a few hundred in the same time period. prices are now less than $100 apart. once the prices come to an equilibrium I think we see a massive short squeeze and shoot up. there just isnt much meat left on the bone to short btc at these levels and the traders know this. i am still very confident the bottom is in and the only way to go is up.
I haven't had strong conviction which way BTC will move for a month, and still don't. I was beginning to think along the same lines as you around your post, but now about 10 days later the short squeeze didnt happen and now shorts are actually down to about yearly average on bittfinex so the short squeeze seems much less likely now to me. And prices have come back to near parity so im lost. I'm actually thinking we are just going to continue in this range for a while longer, like months longer. Maybe we'll get a false breakout soon, but I doubt it will break much above the 200 day ma at around 7100. And the same goes for a break downwards which I still think is going to happen at some point this year. But I'm beginning to think it won't be much lower, maybe more like 5850 instead of 4900-5200 that i previously was hoping for. Either way I definitely think the current price of around 6400 is a good price to buy btc at. I've been buying a little at current price, but also still waiting patiently for lower prices, or at least very strong conviction a big uptrend is occurring before throwing big money at it. Everybody is just sitting on their thumbs waiting for something to happen, like bakkt coming, or etf decisions. But I don't really see those things having any influence on the market until maybe mid december when the big vaneck/solid x ETF decision comes, except it can, and will get delayed again until february so this should be a non event. there are the 9 that we previously rejected under review again and should be denied again soon but that should be expected by the market too. As far as bakkt I don't think it will be a flood in right away, and thats assuming it starts when expected. people will at least wait a month for numbers to come out. A real rally, or crash, would take a major catalyst right now I believe, and I just don't see it coming this year unfortunately. Patience is a virtue, plus it gives more time for accumulation for those of us a little late to the party!
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  #32  
Old 11-07-2018, 12:40 AM
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BTC 6500

My current crypto alloaction:
50% long BTC
10% long ETH
15% 3x short BTC (Hedge)
25% Miscelaneous alt coins mainly stellar, bitcoin cash, and zcash currently

I've finally started trading alts again over the last couple weeks after being nearly completely done with them over the previous month. I was wrong and they've pretty much all done pretty well over the past month at different times, most moving up 50% and some 100% since lows. So I'm back on the money train, but being cautious with stop losses on all trades. With such good gains in over the last month i could see big profit taking at the first sign of weakness.
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Old 11-14-2018, 11:25 PM
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BTC 5500!

Bitcoin finally broke silence after months in dormant. Everything dumped hard down 10-20%. Bitcoin breaking 100 billion market cap and making new yearly lows. While I do think there is reason to be worried the market could drop much further, for the most part I don't that's going to happen. First of all, I've been for the most part expecting bitcoin to make new lows with an optimistic target low of around 5k. But the main thing I feel like was the catalyst for the sell off today was due to fear surrounding the bitcoin cash hard fork tomorrow 11/15. I don't want to go in deep about the fork, mostly because I don't fully understand all the possibilities/implications ( I don't anyone does, nor should they care) of the fork, but the jist is that Craig Wright aka Faketoshi (guy who claims to of invented bitcoin but hasn't proven it) is trying to change bitcoin cash and says he will by force, and has even gone further to threaten to take over blockchains afterwards. Leading up to the fork I don't there was much fear surrounding the fork at all, if anything, people were excited because it was causing BCH to pump and mnay were hoping for free coins if they held BCH and it forked into two coins. But in the last few days I sensed a change. Faketoshi started getting loud, and did an interview with Tone Vays laying out his plans and sounding confident (but mostly like a megalomaniac) I personally dislike bitcoin cash, roger ver, and craig wright, so I think this is great because I think they are just killing each other with this, but there's also the real possibility that Wright, who has more miners and hash rate seemingly on his side, could fork off into bitcoin SV and then 51% attack the original bitcoin cash chain and essentially destroy it. This would be awesome actually in my mind because it would cripple roger ver and Bitmain - the worlds largest maker/supplier of high end mining chips, and also the largest miner I believe. Bitmain holds like $500 Million of bitcoin cash, so erasing most of that would not only be funny/insane but mostly just good for breaking up that monopoly some IMO. The more worrisome aspect comes next if Wright decides to then 51% attack other chains after. The conspirator theorist in me starts to think maybe he is Satoshi after all and is doing this to destroy bitcoin cash and other bullshit blockchains that are just getting in the way of the one true bitcoin; bitcoin! or is it bitcoin satoshi's vision? who the fuck knows.

Anyway, I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the events of tomorrow. The fork is scheduled for 4:40 pm UTC time tomorrow, which is around noon tomorrow for US. My initial though a week ago was that bitcoin cash would keep pumping until the fork. I had bought some on the dip after its initial pump, but go stopped out as it continued to fall. Now it these prices I'm actually almost tempted to buy some again, thinking it might pump tomorrow before the fork, or shortly after. Really no good reason to other than this thing has had 2 wild turns so far, I can see a 3rd easily. But I mostly plan to just watch and see what happens with my main concern on it's effect on actual bitcoin. Today could be the lowest bitcoin will ever fall to again, or it could just be another dip in the road in this crypto recession that could continue another 6 months. I find it hard to imagine bitcoin not going on a strong by mid to late next year due to the bitcoin halving schedule where miners begin to receiving half of the previous amount of bitcoin.

My bitcoin short position was half closed out locking in some profit after it broke 5850, My remaining short i lowered my stop-loss to 6025, guaranteeing profit from entry point of 6375. I'm tempted to go back short with a larger position again, but I'm hopeful that 5k would be the max low so there isn't a large profit margin there, but then again on leverage it could be quite profitable. I really want to wait and see what happens after the fork tomorrow though. Expect high volatility tomorrow afternoon, and most likely higher volatility than in previous weeks in general going forward.

The two plays I really plan to focus on over the next month though are Zcash (ZEC) and Stellar (XLM) The plays are solely on anticipation of a Coinbase listing. They, along with 3 others (two of which have already been listed) were announced as possible additions a few months ago. All 5 have have been pumping at various times in anticipation. It's an easy game in theory. Coin gets officially anounced being added to coinbase pro, coin pumps. dips a little right after announcement, giving chance to buy in if you hadn't previously held pre announcment. Then a couple days later it get added to normal Coinbase, coin pumps one last time, then dumps. I say easy, but i missed out on the BAT and ZRX adds because i was more confident in XLM so thats where my bets were. I did make some money on the first Ethereum clasic add though, and I plan on catching the ZCASH and Stellar adds now. In a sense I already did some because I was holding last week and they gained like 20% before dumping today, luckily stops caught and locked in profit. I rebought near the bottom today, but then was stopped out again. I'm waiting now before jumping back in until tomorrow gives us more direction. Also BAT was just added a week ago, but I'm guessing it will be at leats a week before sometjing gets added again. And it could also be Cardano, the 5th coin they hinted at, but it seems unlikely since they don't even have a functioning blockchain yet! Also a random coin could swoop in out of nowhere. So there is risk in holding either or both coins, seeing how the other might dump once one is announced, although maybe it will pump because people will see it as the next one in line. Regardless, I think these are the only two coins I'd be holding right now other than bitcoin and ethereum. Maybe bitcoin cash if your a true gambler!

Good luck out there everyone. Remember, it's only magical internet money. And seeing that it's magic, it will once again become worth far more in the future.
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