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  #26  
Old 10-16-2018, 04:27 PM
Roofies Roofies is offline
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bitfinex price actually went to $7700. most likely a short squeeze due to the fud around tether coin(usd in coin form on exchanges) and traders fleeing it and buying bitcoin instead. you witnessed what btc can do in a moments notice, up $1500 in an hour is sick. more to come.
gl
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  #27  
Old 10-16-2018, 08:28 PM
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BTC 6450

Wow, crazy few days in the crypto space, all fueled by concerns over Tether and Bitfinex as I mentioned in my last post. Sunday night bitcoin shot up 10-15% momentarily depending on exchange, a clear result of people fearing Tether could implode so many converting into Bitcoin and other alt coins and stable coins. Tether's $1 peg had been trading around 98 cents then dropped all the way to 85-90 cents at one point. Other newer stable coins grew to almost $1.10! In the last day, fears have subsided somewhat, with Tether now back to 97-98 cents and other stable coins back down to around $1.04. Bitcoin has come back to earth somewhat as well. However, a substantial difference in BTC prices between exchanges still exists due to Tether being traded sub $1. In my mind, the "real" price of BTC is what it's being traded on non-Tether exchanges. You might think there are good arbitrage opportunities to be had with such a price difference, but you're taking big risks to do so. Example: If you buy 1 BTC on Coinbase then transfer to bitfinex or Binance where it's trading a few hundred dollars higher, to sell you need to convert it into either Tether, Tru USD, or Paxos. You can certainly do it into Tether if you think Tether isn't going to implode and will make it back to $1, however you risk Tether going to 0, so you are essentially risking 100% to make about 3%. And if you sell it for another stablecoin (TUSD or PAX) that are trading at 1.04, its just a wash for time being, and when they go back to their peg you lose 4%. The same goes if you buy Paxos (a fully regulated and verified stable coin) through their website for $1, then transfer to exchange, sell for 1.04, but into what? Again, if you have faith in Tether, then there's an easy 4%, or into bitcoin at an 3-4% inflated price.

Tether's implosion could go many ways. If it's a slow bleed out like has been happening recently, bitcoin's price should continue to rise as people sell there Tether. This would be ideal imo. Not because it will give BTC a short term rise (because that is essentially artificial) but because it will remove Tether from the space slowly, while giving way to better, more regulated and transparent stable coins (something the space desperately needs for new people to come in, which is the only way BTC will continue to rise over time) all while not crashing the market. This is the other possibility that's very real if Tether crashes at any moment. In this scenario, people wont have the opportunity to sell into other coins, they could just lose all their money, and the market could crash hard. Hopefully this doesn't happen, but it could, so I'm taking precautious measures.

It's really hard to gauge whether or not Tether is going to crash. It obviously doesn't look good, being that it has been under $1 for 2 weeks now and hasn't recovered. but this has been due to Bitfinex (which started and own Tether I believe) having banking issues. They have had to change banks which is causing all the fear in the market. USD deposits have been closed, but apparently just reopened today. Bitfinex apparently has a new bank, and they have been assuring everyone that everything is ok. Only they really know if they are solvent or not. If so, they are probably making a killing buying Tether from its customers and selling them inflated bitcoin, when prices stabilize they sell Tether back for bitcoin and have just made a killing. A part of me thinks this is the case and everything will be just fine for Tether and bitfinex, at least in the short term. I would think if Tether and bitfinex were going under they would have by now. Also they shouldn't have been able to get another bank account if they weren't fine, but hey it's overseas banking so anything is possible. Maybe they are just waiting for tether to stabilize so they can buy back bitcoin, completing their arbitrage, then exit scam. Or maybe it just continues to hang where it is around 97-98 long enough for other stable coins to gain traction, then dies off simply because nobody will use it anymore since they have better, regulated options. This is what I think is the most likely scenario. It will just take some time for other stable coins to grow in popularity. There are 2.5 billion Tether out there and only 50 million PAX and 160 million TUSD. That's why their peg have risen above $1, due to the high demand and small supply (not anything wrong with the way they are pegged to keep them stable at $1) In order to get more in circulation people or exchanges have to buy these coins from their sponsor companies in order for new ones to be created. I looked into buying PAX yesterday from their website, at the time thinking of possibly going for the arbitrage opportunity despite the high risk, but then changed my mind on it, however I think I'm still going to because once the market stabilizes it seems like a cheaper way to buy new Bitcoin. Instead of buying on Coinbase or somewhere else with USD and paying 2-4% to do so, i figure i can buy PAX, transfer to Binance, and buy bitcoin for zero in fees. I began setting up an account on Paxos website last night. They do full KYC verification, so I have to wait a few days for that to happen, which is fine since PAX and BTC are still high premium so the opportunity isn't there yet. I'm not sure if there are any fees associated with buying PAX straight from the company, but I doubt it. Either way, I think it would be very beneficial to the crypto space for everyone to do so. I think stable coins are very important for the market because many people want to be able to sell their coins into virtual USD if they see market risk. People don't like that if they see the market going down they have to sell there alt coins into bitcoin, still leaving them will a lot of volatility. Eventually their will be more regulated exchanges where people can move in and out of coins right to actual USD, as you would with stocks in your brokerage account. However, stable coins will still continue to be very important if crypto is to become what many see it as: a peer-to-peer currency that isn't controlled by government. What's holding this back right now is the volatility of crypto. You can't have all your money in something that moves multiple % points daily, thus stable coins. They are needed for crypto adoption imo. Thus people (and exchanges mainly) need to start buying them to meet increase supply and meet user demand. Then Tether can die, and there will be much for faith in the market. Then institutions will get in. Then Moon.

All in all, the recent days have seemingly worked out well for me. My trading account is up 15% in the last 2 days so I'm happy. I'm still unsure at where my money should be though however. I've been in and out of Tether, bitcoin, alt coins, and PAX unsre of where to park my money, but somehow I'm up through all of it. However at this point I'm not wanting to risk anything, so I just moved most of my trading account over to a derivatives exchange and have shorted bitcoin at 2x leverage. Not because I think bitcoin is going down, but rather to hedge my long term bitcoin holdings. So right now I'm essentially equal long and short, without having the risk of holding Tether, or paying the fees to sell BTC into USD. I think this is the optimal play right now with all the uncertainty. Another option is to simply short at 1x leverage on a derivatives exchange. Shorting at 1x is essentially the same as being in a stable coin. I'm not sure on the math and how this works, but it does. Your only risk then is counter-party risk (risk of having money on exchange)

I'm still not very confident of this market short term, I think there's a very good chance bitcoin falls to 5k soon as I've been predicting for a while. On the flip-side institution involvement continues to grow with BAKKT on track to open in December, and now Fidelity has announced they are opening BTC custody and trading for institutions. This is HUGE. Custody and insurance are the two things keeping institutions out of crypto right now, but with a mammouth like Fidelity now about to offer it, things could begin to change quickly. There's still no guarantee all of these things will result in a bitcoin mega bull run. Fidelity for example is just going to buy and sell bitcoin on behalf of customers via OTC markets, so price won't directly be affected. Still, I think there's little doubt this will increase adoption, awareness, etc. which will in turn increase price. That's really the only thing that affects price; adoption/use. The BTC price over the last year is simply a product of this. price rose very sharply outpacing actual adoption/use, and now has come back down to near a realistic historical adoption curve. I think its still a little high considering how often people actually use BTC for transactions, but its getting close. Most people know about bitcoin now. However most don't actually understand it, and even fewer actually own it, and even less actually use it. Once institutions get in, and stable coins exist that people can trust, the large percentage of people that know of bitcoin but haven't bought because of lack of trust will realize that it's legit, then the next bull run will occur.
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  #28  
Old 10-16-2018, 08:33 PM
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As far as the stock market goes, all 3 major indexes went down to their 200 day moving averages a few days ago, and have bounced very nicely since, just as I predicted. Now the only question is whether it be be sustained for is it just a dead cat bounce of support before dropping more and breaking through the MA. If this happens, stocks and our economy as a whole is in big trouble, as there isn't much support below the 200 day MA. (it hasn't been broke since Aug 2015) Today the market rose sharply, over 2% most indexes. I was expecting a somewhat slower climb back to all time highs, but we are getting into earnings season now so earnings will mostly dictate the direction of the market. Hopefully they don't disappoint..
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  #29  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:51 PM
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BTC 6390

It's been a quiet few days since all the Tether/Bitfinex drama began, and for the most part I think that can be seen as a good thing. Tether hasn't imploded, bitfinex hasn't gone under. Stablecoin and bitcoin prices among exchanges have narrowed the gap some, with tether now trading over 98 cents and other stablecoins down to about 1.02 and thus bitcoin prices between tether and non-tether exchanges less than a $200 difference. So obviously fears in the market have subsided some, but we're clearly not out of the woods yet since difference in prices remain. Fortunately, the major exchanges must have seen my last post when I called for them to start buying more alternative stablecoins (just kidding) as news came out the next day that many of the largest exchanges were listing multiple new stablecoins, and Pax apparently selling $500 million of their new coins recently, a massive spike from their current $40 million in circulation. So the moves are obviously being made to create competition for Tether which is a very good thing for the market moving forward. The question remains as to why prices haven't begun to move up, especially considering the incredibly bullish news of Fidelity and ICE's BAKKT coming to market in the next few months which will finally allow large institutions to get into the market. Prices are at yearly lows, which have been a great buying spot all year, yet buying isn't outpacing selling. I think there's a few reasons. One, we're in a bear market, so good news just doesn't affect price the way it would in a bull market. Two, the Tether/Bitfinex concerns stool loom. Three, Bitcoin is a hype/fomo market filled with inexperienced traders, so most won't start buying until they see the price going up. Most won't until they see confirmation that we are on an uptrend. And still many more will wait until the top to buy. Another factor could be the recent stock market fears. If the stock market keeps declining I think it's more likely bitcoin price will suffer also since it's such a speculative and volatile asset. If people pull out of stock they aren't going to put it into something riskier, they are more likely to pull out of bitcoin as well if they own both, but certainly not transfer from stocks to bitcoin. It's very possible the last bull run from last year had extra fuel from people that had made a lot of money in stock over the last 10 years so they felt they had extra money to speculate with. And there are most likely many other factors I don't know of, but given all these factors, I can see why price isn't moving up. I don't necessarily think this means price must go down from here, it could stay stagnant longer, but I'm still of the belief the market hasn't reached capitulation. Thus, even though I don't think it's a bad time to buy bitcoin, I still think we see lower prices to buy in. And I think this is the thinking of the majority large players out there, both institutional and individual. I'm starting to ramble as always so i'll end it now.

I'll wrap it up with some advice to keep in mind. All that matters is how much bitcoin you own. This especially applies to altcoins. It doesn't matter what an altcoin is valued at in USD, only if it is increasing in BTC value. You can't sell your altcoins for USD, you sell them for bitcoin. Altcoins should only be traded to increase the amount of bitcoin you own. Bitcoins price in the short term doesn't matter, because we all believe it will increase over time. It's nearly impossible not to over time given the tokenomics of it. So if you trade on exchanges, the dollar value of your portfolio shouldn't matter nearly as much as your BTC equivelant. If that is increasing over time through trading, even if your dollar value is decreasing, you are winning.
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  #30  
Old 10-28-2018, 08:33 AM
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my observation/take on the stability of bitcoin price over the last couple weeks. dont get used to it. what you are witnessing is bitfinex unwinding its price down to get into parity with bitstamp. i dont like seeing things like this because what you are seeing is obvious manipulation among whales. bitstamp whales are keeping the price steady at $6400 and whales at bitfinex have brought their price down a few hundred in the same time period. prices are now less than $100 apart. once the prices come to an equilibrium I think we see a massive short squeeze and shoot up. there just isnt much meat left on the bone to short btc at these levels and the traders know this. i am still very confident the bottom is in and the only way to go is up.
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Old 11-06-2018, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Roofies View Post
my observation/take on the stability of bitcoin price over the last couple weeks. dont get used to it. what you are witnessing is bitfinex unwinding its price down to get into parity with bitstamp. i dont like seeing things like this because what you are seeing is obvious manipulation among whales. bitstamp whales are keeping the price steady at $6400 and whales at bitfinex have brought their price down a few hundred in the same time period. prices are now less than $100 apart. once the prices come to an equilibrium I think we see a massive short squeeze and shoot up. there just isnt much meat left on the bone to short btc at these levels and the traders know this. i am still very confident the bottom is in and the only way to go is up.
I haven't had strong conviction which way BTC will move for a month, and still don't. I was beginning to think along the same lines as you around your post, but now about 10 days later the short squeeze didnt happen and now shorts are actually down to about yearly average on bittfinex so the short squeeze seems much less likely now to me. And prices have come back to near parity so im lost. I'm actually thinking we are just going to continue in this range for a while longer, like months longer. Maybe we'll get a false breakout soon, but I doubt it will break much above the 200 day ma at around 7100. And the same goes for a break downwards which I still think is going to happen at some point this year. But I'm beginning to think it won't be much lower, maybe more like 5850 instead of 4900-5200 that i previously was hoping for. Either way I definitely think the current price of around 6400 is a good price to buy btc at. I've been buying a little at current price, but also still waiting patiently for lower prices, or at least very strong conviction a big uptrend is occurring before throwing big money at it. Everybody is just sitting on their thumbs waiting for something to happen, like bakkt coming, or etf decisions. But I don't really see those things having any influence on the market until maybe mid december when the big vaneck/solid x ETF decision comes, except it can, and will get delayed again until february so this should be a non event. there are the 9 that we previously rejected under review again and should be denied again soon but that should be expected by the market too. As far as bakkt I don't think it will be a flood in right away, and thats assuming it starts when expected. people will at least wait a month for numbers to come out. A real rally, or crash, would take a major catalyst right now I believe, and I just don't see it coming this year unfortunately. Patience is a virtue, plus it gives more time for accumulation for those of us a little late to the party!
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  #32  
Old 11-06-2018, 11:40 PM
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BTC 6500

My current crypto alloaction:
50% long BTC
10% long ETH
15% 3x short BTC (Hedge)
25% Miscelaneous alt coins mainly stellar, bitcoin cash, and zcash currently

I've finally started trading alts again over the last couple weeks after being nearly completely done with them over the previous month. I was wrong and they've pretty much all done pretty well over the past month at different times, most moving up 50% and some 100% since lows. So I'm back on the money train, but being cautious with stop losses on all trades. With such good gains in over the last month i could see big profit taking at the first sign of weakness.
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  #33  
Old 11-14-2018, 10:25 PM
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BTC 5500!

Bitcoin finally broke silence after months in dormant. Everything dumped hard down 10-20%. Bitcoin breaking 100 billion market cap and making new yearly lows. While I do think there is reason to be worried the market could drop much further, for the most part I don't that's going to happen. First of all, I've been for the most part expecting bitcoin to make new lows with an optimistic target low of around 5k. But the main thing I feel like was the catalyst for the sell off today was due to fear surrounding the bitcoin cash hard fork tomorrow 11/15. I don't want to go in deep about the fork, mostly because I don't fully understand all the possibilities/implications ( I don't anyone does, nor should they care) of the fork, but the jist is that Craig Wright aka Faketoshi (guy who claims to of invented bitcoin but hasn't proven it) is trying to change bitcoin cash and says he will by force, and has even gone further to threaten to take over blockchains afterwards. Leading up to the fork I don't there was much fear surrounding the fork at all, if anything, people were excited because it was causing BCH to pump and mnay were hoping for free coins if they held BCH and it forked into two coins. But in the last few days I sensed a change. Faketoshi started getting loud, and did an interview with Tone Vays laying out his plans and sounding confident (but mostly like a megalomaniac) I personally dislike bitcoin cash, roger ver, and craig wright, so I think this is great because I think they are just killing each other with this, but there's also the real possibility that Wright, who has more miners and hash rate seemingly on his side, could fork off into bitcoin SV and then 51% attack the original bitcoin cash chain and essentially destroy it. This would be awesome actually in my mind because it would cripple roger ver and Bitmain - the worlds largest maker/supplier of high end mining chips, and also the largest miner I believe. Bitmain holds like $500 Million of bitcoin cash, so erasing most of that would not only be funny/insane but mostly just good for breaking up that monopoly some IMO. The more worrisome aspect comes next if Wright decides to then 51% attack other chains after. The conspirator theorist in me starts to think maybe he is Satoshi after all and is doing this to destroy bitcoin cash and other bullshit blockchains that are just getting in the way of the one true bitcoin; bitcoin! or is it bitcoin satoshi's vision? who the fuck knows.

Anyway, I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the events of tomorrow. The fork is scheduled for 4:40 pm UTC time tomorrow, which is around noon tomorrow for US. My initial though a week ago was that bitcoin cash would keep pumping until the fork. I had bought some on the dip after its initial pump, but go stopped out as it continued to fall. Now it these prices I'm actually almost tempted to buy some again, thinking it might pump tomorrow before the fork, or shortly after. Really no good reason to other than this thing has had 2 wild turns so far, I can see a 3rd easily. But I mostly plan to just watch and see what happens with my main concern on it's effect on actual bitcoin. Today could be the lowest bitcoin will ever fall to again, or it could just be another dip in the road in this crypto recession that could continue another 6 months. I find it hard to imagine bitcoin not going on a strong by mid to late next year due to the bitcoin halving schedule where miners begin to receiving half of the previous amount of bitcoin.

My bitcoin short position was half closed out locking in some profit after it broke 5850, My remaining short i lowered my stop-loss to 6025, guaranteeing profit from entry point of 6375. I'm tempted to go back short with a larger position again, but I'm hopeful that 5k would be the max low so there isn't a large profit margin there, but then again on leverage it could be quite profitable. I really want to wait and see what happens after the fork tomorrow though. Expect high volatility tomorrow afternoon, and most likely higher volatility than in previous weeks in general going forward.

The two plays I really plan to focus on over the next month though are Zcash (ZEC) and Stellar (XLM) The plays are solely on anticipation of a Coinbase listing. They, along with 3 others (two of which have already been listed) were announced as possible additions a few months ago. All 5 have have been pumping at various times in anticipation. It's an easy game in theory. Coin gets officially anounced being added to coinbase pro, coin pumps. dips a little right after announcement, giving chance to buy in if you hadn't previously held pre announcment. Then a couple days later it get added to normal Coinbase, coin pumps one last time, then dumps. I say easy, but i missed out on the BAT and ZRX adds because i was more confident in XLM so thats where my bets were. I did make some money on the first Ethereum clasic add though, and I plan on catching the ZCASH and Stellar adds now. In a sense I already did some because I was holding last week and they gained like 20% before dumping today, luckily stops caught and locked in profit. I rebought near the bottom today, but then was stopped out again. I'm waiting now before jumping back in until tomorrow gives us more direction. Also BAT was just added a week ago, but I'm guessing it will be at leats a week before sometjing gets added again. And it could also be Cardano, the 5th coin they hinted at, but it seems unlikely since they don't even have a functioning blockchain yet! Also a random coin could swoop in out of nowhere. So there is risk in holding either or both coins, seeing how the other might dump once one is announced, although maybe it will pump because people will see it as the next one in line. Regardless, I think these are the only two coins I'd be holding right now other than bitcoin and ethereum. Maybe bitcoin cash if your a true gambler!

Good luck out there everyone. Remember, it's only magical internet money. And seeing that it's magic, it will once again become worth far more in the future.
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Old 11-24-2018, 07:30 PM
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Bitcoin 3800

Damn what a wild past 11 days it's been in crypto! Bitcoin plunged another 15% a couple hours ago to 3650 really catching me by surprise. I figured after a 35% drop we would get a little pop short term, or at least sideways action a little longer. The dominoes just keep falling. The fear and uncertainty began with the bitcoin cash feud and then the SEC announcing that ICO's must become compliant or face the consequences basically. Then to top it off, people's last hope for the year in Bakkt delays there opening from Dec 12 to Jan 24th I believe. I haven't heard of any explanation for today's continue sell off, but there doesn't have to be. In reality, while I think all these things played a role in crypto's dump, the truth is demand/buyers simply aren't meeting supply/sellers. This has been the case all year obviously, but after holding steady in 6k's more months the levy finally broke. In retrospect, it is very obvious to me now. The insane speculative bubble that took place in 2017 overextended the market to insane extremes both in price and infrastructure investment. Demand for mining machines/chips was insane, everyone jumped into mining and starting blockchain companies. Now as price plummets and regulation tightening people are forced to sell and close up shop. Crypto hedge funds are closing because they have lost a ton of money this year and most are paid by percentage of profits so its easier to close up than hope to make initial investment plus profit in the next year. Dumb people that borrowed money to buy crypto now have to sell to pay off or risk bankruptcy. But the main reason price continues to fall is because people are realizing that demand isn't reaching supply and may not for a while longer. Retail investors buy high and sell low. Everyone bought when bitcoin was towards the end of its cycle but nobody seems to want to buy now thats its a fraction of the price despite the fact that nothing fundamentally has changed to the negative in bitcoin. I hadn't realized the amount of bitcoin mined everyday until recently. There are about 1800 bitcoins mined per day, or about $6.8 million/day at bitcoins current price! That's a lot of fuckin supply for the market to absorb daily on top of normal trading. Now of course not all of that is being sold, and certainly not daily. But even if you figure half of it's sold averaged out over a month, that's a lot of selling pressure in a bear market. Most people in crypto are just trading alt coins trying to increase their BTC rather than buying more with fiat. This is/was the main cause and result of the last 2 years.

This current dump that is happening today is particularly telling to me. I can tell people are actually selling their crypto into bitcoin into USD and fully exiting the market as opposed to just selling into Tether or other stablecoins because the price of the stable coins is dropping. In the previous drops you always see the stablecoins rise above $1 due to quickly hightened demand, yet they are falling along with everything else. This tells me that people are selling everything into USD. Maybe some big fish know that tether and bitfinnex are about to implode, but most likely people are just exiting because they can't take anymore. The good news is this is beginning to smell like final capitulation. In my honest opinion, while the price you bought bitcoin at definitely plays a factor, if you're still holding bitcoin now I think you're at the point of no return. Unless of course you invested more than you can afford to lose and you really need the money to live, selling at this point seems dumb unless you really believe bitcoin is going to 0. And that shouldn't be the case, or else why did you buy bitcoin in the first place? It's impossible to guess how low bitcoin will drop, but it's important to remember that bear market for bitcoin commonly drop this far! Bitcoin has had at least 4 instances before this time where it has dropped over 80%. Until 2 weeks ago bitcoin was down about 76% from all time high. Right now we are about 81% down. So I think we are most of the way done falling. I'm targeting 3100-3300 for the ultimate low. This would be a 50% drop from where we had been ranging for the past few months, and about 84% total fall from highs. After that I see 2800 as a support zone that's possible, and a total worst case scenario of 1000 dollar bitcoin, but I find that very unlikely. Once again the conversations/fears will come up about mining profitability and fear that miners will all quit and the bitcoin networks security (arguably it's strongest characteristic) may falter. But I don't this is a major fear necessarily. You hear a lot about the average price to mine a bitcoin is 5-7k, however from my understanding the majority of mining is done by large companies with access to very cheap electricity and economies of scale that allow then to mine for 1-3k/bitcoin. Also, currently bitcoin's hash rate is dropping signally miners are going offline, yet this actually decreasing the difficulty for miners so they are increasing their bitcoin mined despite the falling price. Most believe in bitcoin's future, and have a ton of money invested in miners, thus will continue to mine at break even or small loss. The network will remain in tact, no doubt about it.

I, for one, am not selling. I've learned enough over the past year of studying crypto everyday that this market will rebound. It may take a bit longer. It will take a bit longer. The question is how long. I'm still hopeful we can begin moving up in early 2019. I think the VanEck ETF will be approved in late february, and before that Bakkt, Fidelity and other will be selling crypto futures. However this will all begin as mainly institutional trading due to the size of them. The ETF is supposed to be 25 bitcoin/share and the futures will be at least a bitcoin. So this won't start another retail hype cycle yet. But it gets the ball rolling to legitimizing bitcoin to the masses. by summer or late 2019 buying due to the next halvening upcoming (where bitcoin miners receive half of the current bitcoin for a mined block, thus cutting the daily btc supply hitting the market in half) Even if it takes until 2020 when maybe a new implimentation like stronger privacy built into bitcoin, eventually bitcoin will reach new all time highs.

I plan to lay off the crypto markets for a while. Watching price daily and portfolio value dropping is finally starting to get a little painful. I refuse to make the mistake of selling of near what I think are the lows, but at the same time I'm not interested in buying any more at these levels. It's funny, I've been waiting patiently all year long to really invest a ton of money into crypto if I felt the moment was right. For the past 4 months or so I thought that point would be if bitcoin got down to 5k, or price went above 11k and looked like it would keep running. But once it hit 5k I changed my mind quickly. I knew it wasn't the time to buy. Although I did admittedly end up buying about 1/10 of what I had planned on buy just because I wanted to stick with my plan just in case. But through this all I'm proud of myself for not getting to overextended with my investments. I didn't buy bitcoin until it had dropped to 6k initially, then managed to keep myself from going big until I knew the time was right. Luckily that point hasn't come so I haven't lost a lot. Also I'm glad I finally learned I should be hedging my crpyto by being both long and short. This through this 45% fall in the past 11 days I actually increased my bitcoin value over 25%. While that's still a loss in USD value but gaining more bitcoin without buying it is the objective in my opinion, that's how gains get compounded when price increase. Unfortunately I wasn't hedged as much I should have been, but better than nothing. I think this is important going forward as well.

Well I ended up rambling a bit there I think, but here are my conclusions:
-Bitcoin may continue to fall further, or at very least will stay in this area for at least a few more months
-But bitcoin is not dead! It is possibly the most important technological advancement we've seen since the internet and will continue to push the boundaries of what is sound money, of privacy, and of what we allow our governments do to control our futures with their high questionable monetary and economic policies
-Once the bear market ends, you want to be positioned to take advantage. Whether that means holding through the last leg of this bear or being ready to buy once the bull market starts.
-The reality is it's nearly impossible to catch it correctly. The best way is to dollar-cost-average buy an amount you can afford every paycheck. This is what I'll be doing once the dust settles, probably after the holidays.

I truly hope none of you guys here at the forum have gotten in too far deep, but if you have, just remember it's just money, you can make more. Don't get too depressed, or worse..Many people made the same mistakes of buying at the wrong time or subsequently holding on for too long. If you really can't take the pain anymore, you're better off selling now. Take time to fix your financial and mental state, learn from lessons. Their will always be another bull market if you're patient.
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Old 11-24-2018, 08:44 PM
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As a follow up, I've been mainly focusing on bitcoin, however I think the alt coin market is what will decide the the ultimate direction of bitcoin in the coming year. I think we all knew that regulation was coming due to the thousands of projects that raised billions of dollars through ICO's. Fortunately it appears that the SEC is taking a mor ethan fair appoach will dealing with these "companies" it sound like if they come to the SEC and register they may only face fines. Most likely they will be forced to refund money they raised to US investors however. This will be very tricky considering most projects have gone through most of the money they collected through "donations". The fear is that this process may drag on for a while. Some will come forward right away, some will fight it, some will be long drawn out legal battles. I think about half of the current 2000+ tokens/coins go to zero or near zero in the next few months. Others will to but may take a while longer. In the end I think this will be great for crypto as a whole. We need to get the scam projects out. The legit ones that managed their fundraising capital smartly and comply with the SEC will live on and possibly grow much stronger due to the decrease in competition. This will play out like the dot com bubble. Thousands enter, a handful actually make it big. The big question to me is how this will effect bitcoin. Long term i don't think it has much effect at all. bitcoin is bitcoin and I believe will always have increasing value over time. But in the next 6 months could it actually benefit from alt coins dying off? As people realize their alts could go to zero they will sell for bitcoin or other alt coins they believe will live on. Some will sell all together to fiat and leave the market as is beginning to happen, but I could also see a small boost to bitcoin as people find safe haven is the safest coin.

2017 was the year of the ICO and craziest bull run the world's ever seen. 2018 death of the ICO fundraising method and crushing bear market. 2019 will be the year of regulation, institutionalization of crypto, and exodus of 90% of crypto projects. As always in crypto, we hope that it moves quickly so the innovation and subsequent rise in price can occur. But the reality is that governments, courts, and institutions move slow, so we need to stay patient and positive. Blockchains and cryptocurrencies aren't going away, that much is for sure. It just gives people that are still unaware a chance to become enlightened, and gives time for these the technology to advance further. Naysayers look at bitcoin as a massive speculative bubble that has burst and now will die. The reality is that speculation outpaced technology by a few years. The tech is there, it's constantly evolving and getting better. The use cases are still being formed. The user interface for wallets, dapps, etc are still in infancy. Crypto, as a currency is still difficult to use for some people, and simply not as efficient as fiat money in most cases. But the day will come when the tech is usable for the masses. The billions of dollars people "donated" to these projects in return for tokens they can use to spec trade with won't go wasted. some made fortunes, some lost fortunes, but in the end, hundreds of projects were given the ability to innovate on potential world changing technology by "grants" donated by individuals. That alone is monumental. Remember, most projects are open source, meaning even if there projects dies off, the code is still there for people to learn from. 20 years from now I think the world mostly uses cryptocurrencies and we look back at this time as the one of the most significant revolutions of all time, in that the people stood up to tyrannical central banks and took control of their money and finances for the first time in existence.
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  #36  
Old 11-24-2018, 09:09 PM
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As far as owning/trading alt coins right now: You're probably better off not. But if so inclined, as I still am slightly, my only suggestion is to only hold coins that you think won't face SEC scrutiny. That's all ICO tokens. I think the others that didn't raise money should be ok, and maybe get a boost from people trading into them from their utility tokens. Proof of Work coins should be high on the list. Follow what happens in mining. As bitcoin mining becomes unprofitable for some, they may switch to other PoW coins that they can mine profitably instead of leaving the mining game altogether and selling their equipment at massive losses. I also really like Stellar, always have. They never ICO's and can't be mined. The tokens were just created by then have been given away, airdropped, etc. Never sold to anyone. Thus they can't be deemed a security. You can even claim $25 worth for free through blockchain dot org/getcrypto. Transactions process in seconds and fees are less than a penny to send transactions. This is in fact better than paypal, venmo, wechat, western union, etc right now! Definitely watch Stellar (XLM). This is almost the same as Ripple (XRP) but Ripple sells their tokens, XRP is clearly an unregistered security, and all the morons that continue to buy XRP for some reason are going to get crucified. At least thats how I see it. I still can't unserstand how Ripple is the #2 largest market cap. I won't ramble forever on all the reasons why Ripple is awful, but I'm certain the XRP token will go to zero. Stay away. Other coins I have interest in that should be safe from regulation are ZCash and Monero, both privacy coins. They are both mined, and both offer full privacy from tracking transactions. Even if the general crypto market dies, Monero should live on as the currency of the dark web (The thing that originally made bitcoin so popular, until people realized it wasn't actually so anonymous) There's a few more tokens for sure that will live on and prosper (Ethereum for example) but most seem way to risky to own right now in my opinion despite the dirt cheap relative prices they are trading at currently.

For the record, I don't think the alt market won't die right away, or maybe not at all. Just because the US is regulating doesn't mean all will die. There's still the rest of the world. And while I think most of the world will begin to follow the US's stance, their will always be ways for people and companies to get around regulation (VPN's). Hell, it's been happening for years already!
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Old 12-13-2018, 11:18 PM
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Stock Trade: TZA

I bought into the Direxion small cap bear 3x leveraged ETF yesterday at $12.15 pretty much on a whim. (I've finally decided after last week's close on the major indices that we in all likelihood are headed lower. It definitely looks like the market has topped. The only question in my mind is how quick and how far will it go.) Anyway, if you like very high returns in a bear market, shorting small caps makes a lot of sense to me.

It had a nice bounce today up 4.3% so I decided to take a look closer at the chart to determine my exit strategy ( yes, definitely poor form doing this post buy) and to my pleasure I find a perfect cup and handle formation, and its just appearing to breakout from the handle at about the $12.70's. rule of thumb is to expect an increase in price equal to difference of bottom to top of cup formation, which i calculate about 4.95 increase from $12.70's, so a take profit target of $17.70. Also next significant resistance levels at about $17 and $18.30. My stop limit is now set at break even from purchase at 12.15. Even if I wasn't in yet or if I decide to add to my position in next few days my stop would probably be in a similar spot.
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Old 12-15-2018, 07:56 PM
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BTC 3180

Once again bitcoin has made new yearly lows today. In my last BTC post I said I was targeting the next low around 3100-3300. Well we are there. Down 43% in december alone. The next level everyone is looking towards is the key 3000 level. This was the high from june 2017, and everyone is sitting around waiting patiently to see if this key support level will hold. If it doesn't, there isn't much support below until 1300! Now of course this doesn't mean if we can't hold 2900/3000 BTC will fall all the way down to there, but it definitely becomes a major concern. I'm hopeful, along with everyone, that this level can hold and maybe we range in the 3k's or even bounce above 4k over the next couple months. It will just be awful for bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general if it falls that far. It could potentially have very negative effects to the network because there won't be miners left to secure the network. But the bigger concern to me is just the damage to reputation and further pain induced on holders of the currency could result in a multi-year bear market continuation. And to be honest I'm getting slightly concerned this could actually happen. This is because everyone thats still left are just sitting around waiting for BTC to bottom before getting back in. We've been burned dozens of times throughout the year trying to buy the bottom, at this point most have to learned. People are being patient finally but the result now is that nobody has the balls to start buying. We keep waiting for buyers to come in and then jump on the train, but if everyone is waiting for that the buying just doesn't come. Everyone wants to see if 3k will hold before getting in, but if everyone does that, 3k won't hold. And if it goes much below (2850 is my level) I think instead of buying coming in we can see another major drop. At that point most everyone will be expecting sub 2k BTC and will sell what they still have and wait to re-enter. I think the move down could be quite swift. Then the question becomes if it bounces hard back up or stays suppressed for a year or more.

The last few weeks I keep trying to come up with list of reasons price could hold, go up, or drop further. Here's my bullish cases:
1. price is cheap relative to recent prices, and multiple historical ratios like cost of mining/price and many more
2. The industry is growing and big institutions are prepping to finally introduce more investments products in the next month or two ( Bakkt, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley)
3. More crackdowns are happening to clean up scams and fraud that have previously kept many investors out, and have burned many that have been in over the last couple years
4. The SEC appears to be doing their best at not stifling innnovation in the crypto space. It's been frustrating at the slow speed they are moving at, but the fact that government and the SEC isn't trying to stop bitcoin (They can't) is positive.
5. And just all the reasons why bitcoin is so great ( unconfiscatable, immutable, frictionless, borderless, sound money, deflationary, decentralized, store of value, etc)
6. Big money appears to be accumulating. I recently heard that the vast majority of the 300 largest bitcoin wallets are showing growth. nearly every one has money going in over the past 2 months. This is very bullish to me. See many believe bitcoin is controlled/manipulated by the few percent of top holders of the coin. Some see this as a negative (When you have such a large % of total supply its easy to move the price in the direction you want if you know what your doing) So whether or not you think price is being manipulated down by whales so they can accumulate more ( it's probably partly true) The fact that they are now accumlating instead of selling off more gives me supreme confidence that it will have another massive bull run in the future. This is the game, period. If you know the game, you can participate even if you don't have the power yourself. If this was just a big house ponzi scheme and this last year was the end of it, the big addresses would be decreasing in size, but instead they are growing. Very bullish another big pump is coming, despite the fact that I don't think it's a great thing for bitcoin's long term outlook (5+ years) because it points to increased centralization. Bitcoin was great because anyone could mine it from home, and it was totally decentralized. Now mining has become pretty centralized due to the increased difficulty, and now even more of the total supply is owned by a few hundred people/companies. But that's a concern to address after the next mega bull run in my opinion.

Bearish cases:
1. Regulatory uncertainty: While the SEC has begun to crack down on some ICO's and exchanges, they still haven't given us enough info on their direction of what is and what isn't a security. We still don't have an ETF (which I've said for 8 months was going to be the only thing to bring us out of this bear market) and people have begun to lower their expectation that the big Vaneck/CBOE ETF will be approved by the deadline of February 27th based on past and recent statements from the SEC concerning manipulation and the lack of oversight and regulated exchanges.
2. See opening paragraph about the fact that people are seemingly just waiting on the sidelines before getting back in, resulting in very few buyers and increasing selling pressure.
3. Still too many overvalued alt coins despite many losing 95+% of value from all time highs in January. I've been waiting and expecting for dozen if not hundreds of coins/tokens to exit scam, quit developing, exchange delisting, SEC fines, etc for months, and so far not too many have.
4. Full capitulation/max pain hasn't been quite been reached. I keep thinking we can't begin the next hull run until full capitulation, and that means all aspects of crypto, not just by token holders. Miners have begun to shut down, some projects are done, mass layoffs are beginning to happen, hedge funds are shutting down because their losses are seemingly to big to recover from, I heard a Stanford prof jumped off a building. The last one sucks to hear, but honestly that's what it's gonna take for this to turn around. I think we are very near to the end, just not quite there.
5. Plain and simple, there's more sellers than buyers still. some miners are forced to sell there hoards of BTC they were hoping they could stash until price increased but now have to sell to stay afloat. 1800 bitcoins mined per day is a lot of potential selling pressure. Also people selling this time of year to buy Xmas presents, people really fearing it's going to zero and cutting there losses, hedge funds being forced to liquidate and close up. All points to supply exceeding demand

And other reasons I can't think of at the moment, but the point is that there are plenty of reasons for price to keep dropping despite I think most people feeling that bitcoin is trading below fair market value at this point. I'm of the belief that even if we can hold 3k, i think it will take at least a few months, possibly 6 months or a year before confidence comes back among current speculators, and new people entering. Everyone knows the last bull run was fueled by new entrants to the space, and the next bull run will need the same. This should start with institutional involvement which will in turn give faith to people who are still ignorant to bitcoin and blockchain. But it takes time. So I think best case scenario is we can stay above 3k and range for a while until public perception changes.

As far as how my portfolio looks, I'm mostly in spot long bitcoin and some in stable coins. I'm really waiting to see what happens as we approach the 3k point then decide whether to buy or sell. As far as alt coins go, I've wisely exited all positions. before I would hold and have stop losses to cut losses while leaving myself open for pumps. Now I think it's smarter to have stop buy orders that will trigger if price rises above a certain point. I'm still expecting Stellar (XLM) to be added to coinbase any day now. current price .0000295 btc, i have buy stop order at .00003150, and expect a pump to at least .00004 when added to coinbase. The other coin I have orders for as much as I ahte to admit it are for Ripple (XRP) Now to be clear, i really dislike xrp. I think the coin is essentially a scam, despite it being the #2 in market cap currently. And I can admit I've been wrong it many times in the past. Ive been burned shorting it a couple times, although i recently had a successful short from.0000915 to .00008520. currently at .0000885. Ripple is easily the most controversial coin. You either love it or hate it. most in crypto hate it because it's not decentralized among other things. But the fact is, for some reason the media, and noobs love the coin. Some think it will be the thing that all banks in the world use to transact among each other. I'm very skeptical to say the least. But they market like crazy. They've had snoop dog and Bill Clinton recently speak at their convention. Ashton kutcher promotes it and was just on Ellen promoting it. That's seen by millions of women out there. They have the hype/marketing/etc that could keep this coin moving up. I still think it's clearly an unregistered security (they are currently under many lawsuits for such) Coinbase has added them despite being a top 3 coin for years now. And once they announced 5 possible adds bakc in the summer and XRP wasn't one, it was clear sign coinbase had legal concerns over it too. So it was a no go for me and had been shorting it. However, Coinbase recently announced 30 more possible coin additions that could be coming soon, and XRP was on the list this time! So its possible coinbase now thinks they could sell it without legal repercussion of their own which is in itself bullish imo. But if they actually do it I think it will easily go to $1 (about 0.28 right now) Coinbase has been doing this 12 days of Xmas thing where their announcing something special each day. My speculation is that day 12 will be big, and by big I think it could be adding XRP. Today was day 6. So, I have my stop buy orders set for XRP in case it starts pumping. Nothing pumps like XRP, so I'm ready if it does. With a stop buy order you won't realize the full pump, but I think it's better risk management than holding the coin with a stop loss set.

I also have small holdings of Digibyte (DGB) and TomoChain (TOMO) that I have in anticipation of being added to Binance soon. I admit it's kinda lame that most of my alt holding over the past 6 months have been based mostly on exchange listings, but there's not a whole lot of other opportunities in this awful bear market. Would have been better off not holding or trading once in the last 6 months to be honest, but the learning has been worth the small "paper" losses. I know I'll be prepared both as a trader and mentally for when the next big crypto bull comes, however far away that may be!
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Old 12-19-2018, 10:25 PM
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BTC 3725

Bitcoin is finally having a nice relief rally for the first time since the plunge from the 6k's, reaching above 3900 at one point today from lows in the 3100's a few days ago. It's pulled back some throughout the day, so now the question is whether it can continue and how much higher. I'm pretty confident we will go up from here to at least 4200 where we'll test recent of previous highs. If it can break 4200 it will then have the 50 day EMA (currently around 4400) to contend with which was last broke mid september and even then couldn't stay above. Also thats the area where a lot of short positions were taken on the exchanges where you can short as you can see from the btcshorts charts on tradingview. So in all likelihood we will see a rejection of this very strong resistance at 4400 and move back down. However, if btc can break that level it will squeeze shorts and we'll be clear up to 5k, and then possibly 5700-6000. That would be ultimate take profit point, because I'd give us it a 5% chance at best it will move higher than that in the near term. The bear market isn't over and may not be for a while, but bitcoin is definitely due for a relief rally.

If I'm playing this move, and I am, if I wasn't in a position yet I would be comfortable buying in the area bitcoin is now (3600-3800), with a first target of 4200, and stop loss around 3550. I'm already in a long I took 2 days ago when we broke 3500. I still have some in stable coins and waiting for a break of 4400 to add on to my position. If we go much lower than 3550 this relief rally if probably over.

I'm also in some alt coins positions again. I keep telling myself to quit them completely, but hey, when bitcoin is in an uptrend, alts simply are going to perform better. So until they don't, I won't. Anyway, Ripple (XRP) is really doing well. I think it getting a nice "buy the rumor" type pump with many anticipating a coinbase listing on the 12th day of this xmas bullshit. My buy orders got filled on this a couple days ago on the initial pump and I expect this to continue moving up until day 12 which is the 21st. they have been announcing around noon-2pm eastern i think. I'll be selling sometime before this as I still think it probably won't be listed. i'll be setting buy stop orders right before that time however once I've exited just in case it is added. Hopefully then my buy orders will fill for a quick 20-50% gain. Exchange listing haven't been what they used to be. with every new add the coins pump less and less, especially considering we're in a terrible bear market and nobody is buying at ton. But with XRP I think it will be different. For some reason a lot of people fuckin love xrp (probably because they made a ton of money in the past or know someone who did, certainly doesn't mean it will keep happening) so I think that add would result in an insane initial pump, with a real chance of actual follow through unlike every other exchange listing of recent. The other I'm still holding is Stellar (XLM). it's been beaten down badly in the last 2 weeks since it wasn't listed last big coinbase add when Zcash got the nod instead. But it's still holding support and has been very good against btc for months now, so I'm still expecting a move up from around 0.00003100 to 0.00004000 in the near term.
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Old 12-31-2018, 04:34 PM
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Bitcoin 3680

Its been a couple weeks since my last update so lets look at what has changed. Bitcoin continued its rally up to around 4150, cooled off slightly, then back up to about 4200. I managed to sell a portion of my trade right below the high at 4175, even though I was hopeful it would move higher and possibly break the 50 day EMA. It got rejected and has been moving lower for the past week or so. At this point, I think the relief rally is over and we probably keep inching down(or plummeting) toward 3k again. Although I haven't completely lost faith, and am keeping in my previous stop loss of 3550 in tact. I bought in around 3500, so this still results in profit, especially considering I took profit at 4175 as well. If your in at a higher price I'd consider closing out longs now.

How I view the market moving forward: I don't think bitcoin has found it's low yet, however I'm cautiously optimistic that the low is near. I think btc needs to test below 3k, but I think there's a strong chance it holds near that level, maybe 2800 as a low. I find it hard to believe that buyers won't come in around here. It just seems to good to be true to be able to buy at that price considering previous price levels of the past 2 years, and price action over the course of bitcoins 10 year existence. However, if it falls below 2500 or so I think there's a good chance it falls to 1000ish. And if that occurs either a) it's a sharp spike down followed by a sharp spike back up, or b) the damage to reputation becomes so drastic that it takes years for the market to recover. I think b) is more likely, but I don't really see it happening. I'll take stab and put it less than 10% of happening. The most likely scenario I see is bitcoin dropping to 2800ish and running choppy between there and 4k for a couple months, then hopefully builds up some steam going into summer, begin steady uptrend for the rest of the year, then explode in price again by late 2019, reaching previous all time highs by end of year and shooting past 50k sometime early 2020. Long road map, surely it won't happen as I think, or anyone else thinks probably, but I think it's a very plausible and realistic outlook.

Some considerations for the next coming days: There's been a social push put out termed "proof of keys" where the idea is for everyone to remove all their crypto from exchanges or other 3rd parties on or before January 3rd. The idea is to both make exchanges prove that they have your crypto on hand and aren't running some fractional reserve bullshit. Furthermore, it's to kind of show these 3rd parties that we are indeed in control of our money. I'm personally all for the idea. However, I'm more curious of the results of it. First of all, who knows how many people will go along with this movement. My guess is relatively few; not enough to show exchanges don't have the crypto to cover. If some are running fractional reserves, they probably have enough to cover the percentage of people that try to withdraw (not to mention they can see it coming so they would be stupid to not be sure they can cover withdrawals. I'm more curious about what price might do. Will people simply withdraw there coins to their wallets (i.e no sale) or will people consolidate and sell all there alt coins for bitcoin then remove. Or sell all there crypto for stablecoins and withdraw? I don't know. But I think most likely is that due to this uncertainty, people will at minimum move into stablecoins for a couple days in order to reduce risk. This is probably what I'll do with what I have on exchange, but then again I might be in all stablecoins by then anyway if bitcoins drops below 3550 in the next day or two.

My other concern is tax implications. I don't know much about this, but considering a new year is about to occur, we could see selling today or tomorrow in order to lock in tax losses.

My next post I'm going to compile a list of crypto's I like for the coming year. Stay tuned!
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Old 12-31-2018, 05:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xone View Post
Stock Trade: TZA

I bought into the Direxion small cap bear 3x leveraged ETF yesterday at $12.15 pretty much on a whim. (I've finally decided after last week's close on the major indices that we in all likelihood are headed lower. It definitely looks like the market has topped. The only question in my mind is how quick and how far will it go.) Anyway, if you like very high returns in a bear market, shorting small caps makes a lot of sense to me.

It had a nice bounce today up 4.3% so I decided to take a look closer at the chart to determine my exit strategy ( yes, definitely poor form doing this post buy) and to my pleasure I find a perfect cup and handle formation, and its just appearing to breakout from the handle at about the $12.70's. rule of thumb is to expect an increase in price equal to difference of bottom to top of cup formation, which i calculate about 4.95 increase from $12.70's, so a take profit target of $17.70. Also next significant resistance levels at about $17 and $18.30. My stop limit is now set at break even from purchase at 12.15. Even if I wasn't in yet or if I decide to add to my position in next few days my stop would probably be in a similar spot.
Follow up to this trade:

Possibly my best trade ever. TZA crushed it for about 2 weeks as the market dropped. It even went slightly past my target zones of $17-18.30, topping at 18.70 on christmas eve. good for about a 55% gain from the time I bought on 12/12. Of course I didn't profit quite that much though (sold half at 17, then the other half at 18) but I'll take it! The target was perfectly timed for what I thought would happen with the market too. The selloff was pretty drastic and seemed apparent that some sort of relief rally was needed. The markets were down like 15% or more at that time for the month, the worst december since the great depression and one of the worst months in memory. Considering that, and the end of the year was approaching some relief seemed logical. I think this relief may last another week or so, then I expect a continuation of the downtrend. The only question is how quick and drastically it occurs. I'm not sure, but I do believe its down throughout 2019, so I'll be playing accordingly through inverse ETF's, leveraged or not.
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Old 12-31-2018, 06:55 PM
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Coins/Tokens I like in 2019

First, to preface, my view for the past 6 months, and most likely moving forward, is that the only coin I think is safe enough to hold for long periods of time (multiple months, years, etc.) is bitcoin. Everything else I feel holds enough risk/uncertainty that holding for long periods makes the risk to reward ratio too out of skew. With the loom of regulation still holding like a storm cloud over most projects, we just don't have enough certainty as to whether or not many of these alt coins will even be around by 2020. I believe the vast majority of alt coins will go to zero or essentially zero by years ends, whether it's due to the SEC hammer coming down hard, or the mere fact that most of these projects either aren't going to be successful, aren't even trying to develop anything, or might even create a working product/blockchain but just gets no adoption or gets beaten out by competition. The parallels between alt coins and internet startups in the 2000's are very obvious, and the results will be very similar imo. Thousands try, but the fact of the matter is that ideas and speculation of what the future can/will hold get out in front of reality. Most will die due to this, but the few that win will win huge. in 2000, people came up with every possible idea for an internet company, but technology and people alike weren't ready or trusting enough for them all to succeed. Fast forward to today, and most of those initial ideas are now very successful businesses. The same will hold true in crypto. In 2017 people saw the amazing impacts blockchain could have on the future in terms of increased efficiency, and financial independence. But The tech isn't quite there, and even more so the people aren't ready for it. Trust takes times, plain and simple. People didn't trust the internet at first. It took years for most people to warm up the idea of putting their credit card info into some website, now we do daily. Crypto is even more confusing to people than the internet was, and with all the scams that have occurred, it's going to take a few years before the general population starts warming up to the idea of blockchain and using crypto as currency. At it's core, currency is nothing more than trust. We trust in the US dollar because it has worked for a long enough period of time. Our government has yet to default, so people have no reason to doubt it. yet. Gold and silver have endured throughout time because people have the trust of thousands of years of it's use as money. I believe bitcoin is beginning to gain the trust of currency after 10 years of it working without flaw. With every passing year that trust gets stronger, but it will take more time to gain the trust by the people in order to become a legitimately recognized currency, and even longer for any newer cryptocurrency. Anyway, I'm rambling, here's my list of crypto's I think will perform the best in 2019, with rationale.

Starting with highest current market cap:
Bitcoin (BTC) - obviously
Ethereum (ETH) - This one I'm very unsure of, but is on the list for it's short term potential. Eth will have it's block reward lowered from 3 ETH/block to 2 in mid January. This effectively will reduce the future supply and in the past has always been good reason for a coin to pump leading up to it (see bitcoin). So i like ETH quite a bit for the next couple weeks, but 2019 will depend on how fast ethereum can innovate and push out upgrades. They have been working on transaction speed and a change from POW to POS, among other things. if they can get them done this year Eth may be a great investment, if delayed til 2020, expect Eth to remain under $100 most of the year. Furthermore, the big question has to due with regulations and ICO's moving forward. ETH ran from $10 start of 2017 to about $1400 januray 2018, in large part due to people buying ETH to buy into ICO's. The ICO's were stupid and thought they should keep their fundraising dollars in ETH because why not, its crypto, its going up! SO there wasn't selling pressure at all until 2018. If ICO's are done forever, ETH needs to find another strong use case in 2019.
Stellar (XLM) - I've liked this coin since i got into crypto this year, but to be honest I can't tell you why exactly. there's not a lot of info that comes out about XLM, except that they are working with many large companies. What I like is that they didn't ICO or ever sell tokens. All tokens have been given out for free over time. Transaction speed is 2nd to none, less than a couple seconds, and at near zero cost. I think XLM has maybe the best chance of any cryptocurrency at actually being a currency that people can use to send micro payments across the world. A worry I have is in the supply. only about 20% of Lumens (Stellars token) are in circulation, the rest controlled by the Stellar foundation. So as they release these it causes inflation, bad for price) But considering they aren't selling them, there is no incentive for them to dump on you. Reddit's founder said beginning of 2018 to watch out for Stellar, something i was watching for all year. It's hasn't come, maybe I should give up, but it just seems like there is a lot going on behind closed doors with this project. The fact that it's top 5 in market cap with only the 20% in circulation being counted, tells me that people know something i don't. The same can be said about Ripple. They are in fact pretty much the same token. Ripple used for bank transactions, Lumens for people. Fuck the banks, I'll get down with Stellar instead. Note: due to being a transnational coin (currency) it's best to have a stable price. it's not intended to rise in value, it only does due to speculation. If stellar achieves what it wants, it may be wildly successful, but that doesn't necessarily mean the token will be, so maybe it's a better project to follow rather than invest. We'll see.
Cardano (ADA) - I've never liked this coin. It's another platform/protocol play, aiming at being better than ethereum. It had an insane rise from launch in mid 2017 at around 2 cents to $1.15 in January 2018, now 4 cents. The thing is cardano has yet to have a fully released product yet. They seem to being taking a prudent approach in not going to main-net until they are sure there protocol works perfectly. Who knows if they ever will, but I believe they must be getting close. When these platforms announce they are releasing main net soon they have all pumped big time. Think EOS in mid 2018. The price just kept climbing for over a month leading up to main net, doing over 300% in that time. I expect the same here, and won't be surprised to see ADA over $1 at some point this year. I also like it currently if it can get past 1200 Sats (0.00001200 BTC) I've been trading it the last couple weeks since it broke 1000 Sats and has been bouncing between there and 1200 where it has quite a lot of resistance. If it can break and hold 1200 sats (currently 1090) i think it has clear sailing to 1600 in the short term. But again, Cardano has risks of regulation, reduced desire for protocol platforms, and risk they just don't produce anything. Best bet is to wait for announcement of main net, then jump in and ride the wave until the day before main net launches.
Binance Coin (BNB) - Probably my #1 alt coin pick of 2019. BNB is the coin from Binance exchange (the largest spot crypto exchange in the world) The coin gives users 50% of trading fees (currently reducing from .1% to 0.5%) so your dumb to not own any if you trade on binance. The token was probably the best performing throughout 2018, losing less overall in dollar and BTC terms than nearly every other crypto. I see this trend continuing as Binance continue to grow and dominate. Furthermore, they plan on opening a new "decentralized" exchange shortly. The term DEX or decentralized exchange is misleading because most, if not all have some sort of central point of failure, or someone at least in change of maintaining the exchange. What it really is a non'custodial exchange, meaning they won't hold your coins your trading on exchange. This is meant to reduce people's fears of the exchange being hacked or them running away with your money. Anyway, it just presents more use case for holding the BNB token. they also burn tokens regularly, resulting in less coins, and thus less supply and higher price. The company clearly has been crushing it since inception and looks to continue to into 2019
Monero (XMR) - the ultimate privacy coin, fairly mined, untraceable. If you'r doing illegal stuff and need to exchange money, look no further. Continues to improve over time. Downsides though due to its ultimate privacy large regulated exchanges will probably never adopt it. Governments are sure to disapprove, could even ban it. Increasingly people seem to care less and less about privacy even though it should be opposite. So who knows where this coin goes. It could do really well if regulation comes down hard on other crypto's or tax law gets worse. People may turn to Monero more and more to hide assets, but it's kind of anyone guess as to how much people will value this ability in the future. I tend to think there should/would be lots of demand for this, but who knows.
Decred (DCR) - admittedly I don't know a ton about this coin, something I need to research more. But I know that it has a lot of interest of big fish/companies/VC's, etc. Even Jimmy Song is behind it and he's a bitcoin maximalist, so there has to be something there. They have an interesting governance model that allows users to vote on things. They also have staking I believe and give money to charity regularly. Based on the numerous reputable people I've heard talk favorably about this project I think it performs quite well in 2019.
DigiByte (DGB) - Has a similar voting governance model as Decred. Has a unique consensus model that used multiple types to make it possibly the most secure coin out there. Very decentralized. I think they also have the longest blockchain as well. Can't remember if its more blocks or total transactions or what, but it actually beats out bitcoins, that is impressive. The biggest upside I see is that it hasn't been listed on binance yet ( the only one in the top 50 I think that hasn't yet) So i expect this to be listed shortly then I'll offload my small position.

That's it for current top 50 coins. After that things become even more speculative but I'll go ahead and list a few I kind of like anyway:
Komodo
Holo
Waltonchain
Digitex Futures
WAX
Ravencoin
Horizen
Zcoin
Loom network
Kyber Network
Substratum
Tomochain
Origin Trail
Note: The purpose of this list is mostly for myself to look back on a year from now and see where my head was. Some of the coins/tokens I hold now, most I don't. For all I know many of these coins won't even be around a year from now, but I feel like it's a pretty solid list of projects that stand a good chance of enduring an elongated bear market and could actually become some of the largest companies and/or currencies in the world 5-10 years from now.
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  #43  
Old 02-07-2019, 07:20 PM
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BTC 3355

It's been a while since my last update but not really much has changed in the crypto market. Bitcoin has basically been running flat, while moving slightly lower over the past 5 weeks, but I think we are now getting very close to somewhat sizable move in either direction. My thinking for the past 5-6 weeks has been that we are going to move lower once the previous uptrend to 4200 fell short and fell back to 3600. I took a sizable leveraged short position on btc at 3550 that has paid off nicely so far. My target for first take profit was just above 3300, where the 200 week MA is currently at. This MA has never been broke in BTC, thus it looks the the make or break point in my opinion. The other strong support level below that is probably the 50 month MA, around 3050, that also has never been broke. My feeling for the past couple weeks has been that this support will break as btc approaches for the 2nd time, and we flirt with 3k and possibly lower. However, today I've shifted gears and now beleive we do stand a good chance of bouncing around 3300 again, but it doesn't have to do so much with bitcoin as it does with some of the other large cap cryptos. Litecoin for example has a nice cup and handle formation going for it that's right at the cusp of breaking out. If it can get above 0.01 BTC it should shoot up to 0.013 btc. I'll look for a break, and then retest of the green line around 0.01 for an entry for a trade here as shown below. Also litecoin has a block reward halving coming up that is beginning to fuel speculation. On top of that LTC has been advertising a lot in different areas. I haven't really been a fan of litecoin for quite some time. It's kind of viewed as the testnet for new bitcoin implementation and not much else, other than faster transaction times, however I'm beginning to realize that coins with POW mining should stand a much better chance of survival due to the miners. There's strong incentive for miners to do what they can to keep their coin going due to the large sunk costs of their ASIC miners. So with all these things going for it, I'm actually pretty bullish on LTC so long as bitcoin can hold the 3k level

The big money maker for me and many others over the past month has been Binance Coin. FOr those that don't know, Binance is by far the largest and best crypto exchange out there. They have the best liquidity and most coins listed. Binance coin is used to reduce trading fees, so everyone that trades there holds some (I'd assume) It's been in this beautiful channel for since Dec 18th. I've been trading the hell out of it for weeks now (I kept thinking I should post it here for everyone but then got lazy, sorry!) Anyway, it has now broken out of the channel so we will see where it goes from here. I'm expecting it to touch 0.00258 BTC which is also it's all time high in BTC value. I plan to sell half of my position there, as I expect a small pullback, but I think it ultimately has much farther to run. Why? Well it has been pumping on a few things. First, they are coming out with a new exchange soon, Which they call Binance DEX. DEX means decentralized exchange, which it technically isn't because Binance is obviously a centralized company. The draw to decentralized exchanges has always been that the exchange doesn't hold your crypto, you do. You connect your wallet, generally Metamask, to the exchange and trade ethereum for alt coins while always being in control of your private keys and crypto. With all the exchange hacks that have happened and continue to happen, there is definitely demand here. So Binance's "DEX" is actually a non-custodial exchange. So this, couple with the assumtion that binance coin (BNB) will be largely used here is causing upward movement. Also, binance is now running ICO's through their platform, and instead of ethereum being the main thing to purchase ICO's tokens like in the past, they of course are using their token so of course demand is rising. There has been no better alt coin to hold over the past year, and I expect that trend to continue throughout 2019. Get yourself some BNB
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KNNutovz/
Another large cap that's poised to pop imo is ethereum. ETH had a real nice run up last month in anticipation of a major protocol upgrade that in part would reduce the mining reward from 3 to 2 ETH/block mined, thus reducing new supply. However 1 day before the hard fork there was a serious bug found in the code so the fork was halted. price subsequently has fallen, however ethereum is now on track again for the hard fork on Feb 22nd I believe, so I expect another rise in price. Also I'm curious about Binance's DEX and how people will connect and trade here. in the past, DEX's use ehtereum to trade because you can't with bitcoin in the same way using Metamask or something like it. Something new just came out that will allow you to connect to a DEX with bitcoin but I can't remember what it's called. And Since it just came out I doubt bpeople will be using it right away. So I'm guessing people will have to go out and buy ETH in order to use Binance's DEX. By the way, this exchange is supposed to go into beta testing next week according to the CEO

So, Based on the seemingly strong bullish cases for these 3 majors over the next month I'm thinking bitcoin will indeed move down to 3300 or 3250 at worst and then the moves in these coins will bring the whole market up in the short term. I still think BTC price ultimately moves below 3k in the next couple months and bottoms around 2600. Some people think we can go as low as 1000. I don't discount that it's possible, but I put it below 10% chance. The other possibly is that we have seen the low at 3150. I can think of many bullish cases for this, but they are mostly short term. The Biance stuff is bullish, Fidelity seemingly coming online in March can be major. Fidelity being one of the largest and most trusted names in finance should go a long way in garnering trust in bitcoin among both retail and institutional investors. But it could be delayed again as it already has once. Also we are still waiting on BAKKT which has been delayed twice since november. It seems apparent that they won't open until April or May. The other elephant in the room is all this bitcoin that Mt Gox has been waiting to reimburse customers from the largest ever hack years ago. I forget how much bitcoin is being reiumbursed but it's a large amount. The selling of some of it by trustees to pay creditors over the past year has been blamed a lot for the price decline due to the amount that has already hit the market. With a bunch more being dispersed it will definitely drop the price IMO. The question is what people will do with this bitcoin. obviously some will sell, and some will hold. I'd guess a lot will be sold right away. Many of the people receiving may have left the space after the hack and will have no interest in keeping it. But the fact is, price will drop leading up to the disbursement due to the uncertainty of how much will be dumped. There still isn't a set date but people are anticipating around May for this to occur. I believe the bear market won't end until after this event, and am hopeful this be result in the final capitulation wick down and then we can begin the new cycle.


Unrelated I was thinking about my price target for next cycle, this is what I came to. Based on bitcoin mined daily; currently BTC block reward is 12.5 BTC every 10 minutes, or 1800 btc/day. currently thats $6 million/day in btc theoretically hitting the market (of course not all is sold right away, but going with it for argument sake) at the peak of 20k btc, that was 36 million/day. Now im not saying that's the main reason for bitcon peaking at 20k, but given that much new supply, eventually demand couldn't keep up and price fell. It would have been impossible for price to keep rising unless new people kept flooding in to keep demand consistent with supply. But adoption runs in cycles just like bitcoin price. When bitcoin has it's halving in may 2020, new supply hitting the market will then be cut in half, only 900 bitcoins/day. My conservative assumption is that by that time the number of people holding will be at least double what it was last cycle. So, double demand and half of new daily supply leads my to guess that next cycle's peak will be 4x of previous, or $80,000 bitcoin. I'm less sure about a timeframe for the peak, but I'll throw out a complete shot in the dark of Late 2020. This analysis is probably way off or flawed in thinking, I didn't just come up with it today so haven't thought long and hard about it yet, but just thought I'd throw it out there.

On the flip-side, not to be a head in the sand bull, I was also thinking today about another far less bullish idea. So we all know that alt coins basically act as leveraged bitcoin, moving in line with it but at a 2-3x pace both up and down. So the question is when is the best time to hold bitcoin? Well, if bitcoin is in an uptrend what do you want to hold? Most would say alt coins because they are going up faster. What should you hold when bitcoin is in a downtrend? definitely not alt coins. So bitcoin? Not me. We also have stable coins. Why hold onto something that losing value? Move into stable coins and wait. So when is holding bitcoin optimal? I'm struggling to make a case for it. The best I can come up with is simply using bitcoin derivatives to go leveraged long in an uptrend instead of messing with alt coins. It is probably easier, since with alt coins you need to factor in what bitcoin is doing along with what your alt is doing. So I here many make the argument that leveraged bitcoin makes more sense than alt coins. however you also incur higher trading fees with a leveraged position. Also it's not as easily accessible, especially for US residents to trade bitcoin derivatives. So I think this can be a possible issue for bitcoin moving forward. I struggle with it because I know bitcoin is by far the best crypto and most other are shit and believe most will eventually go to near zero. But only time will tell. Don't get me wrong, bitcoin still has immense value as a store of value, or as uncensorable, immutable, unconfiscatable value transfer. But due to it's pseudoanonymous properties and the fact that not too many merchants accept it, I'm struggling to see a strong reason to hold it for prolonged periods. And this ultimately is what has driven the price up over time, people buying and holding no matter what. If you don't sell, that supple is essentially off the market and drive price up. But if people start realizing that it's more sensible to trade alt coins in uptrends and sell into stable coins on downtrends, that supply increases and could result in less overall value. Also a lot of value I think comes from using for gray market stuff like funding poker and gambling sites in the US. It seems like the US is on the brink of legalizing this stuff again, so it's use case could be diminished. Even with that use case, most of these sites will accept other crypto's now too. It's cheaper and faster to deposit/withdraw using litecoin for example. Anyway, just some thoughts I had today. Hopefully I'm wrong on this idea and the alt coins die and bitcoin stays it course. Who knows, but I'm beginning to warm up to some alt coins more than I was the past 6 months.
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  #44  
Old 02-08-2019, 05:40 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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The chart caused my last post to format weird and cut off, here's the re-post

BTC 3355

It's been a while since my last update but not really much has changed in the crypto market. Bitcoin has basically been running flat, while moving slightly lower over the past 5 weeks, but I think we are now getting very close to somewhat sizable move in either direction. My thinking for the past 5-6 weeks has been that we are going to move lower once the previous uptrend to 4200 fell short and fell back to 3600. I took a sizable leveraged short position on btc at 3550 that has paid off nicely so far. My target for first take profit was just above 3300, where the 200 week MA is currently at. This MA has never been broke in BTC, thus it looks the the make or break point in my opinion. The other strong support level below that is probably the 50 month MA, around 3050, that also has never been broke. My feeling for the past couple weeks has been that this support will break as btc approaches for the 2nd time, and we flirt with 3k and possibly lower. However, today I've shifted gears and now beleive we do stand a good chance of bouncing around 3300 again, but it doesn't have to do so much with bitcoin as it does with some of the other large cap cryptos. Litecoin for example has a nice cup and handle formation going for it that's right at the cusp of breaking out. If it can get above 0.01 BTC it should shoot up to 0.013 btc. I'll look for a break, and then retest of the green line around 0.01 for an entry for a trade here as shown below. Also litecoin has a block reward halving coming up that is beginning to fuel speculation. On top of that LTC has been advertising a lot in different areas. I haven't really been a fan of litecoin for quite some time. It's kind of viewed as the testnet for new bitcoin implementation and not much else, other than faster transaction times, however I'm beginning to realize that coins with POW mining should stand a much better chance of survival due to the miners. There's strong incentive for miners to do what they can to keep their coin going due to the large sunk costs of their ASIC miners. So with all these things going for it, I'm actually pretty bullish on LTC so long as bitcoin can hold the 3k level

The big money maker for me and many others over the past month has been Binance Coin. FOr those that don't know, Binance is by far the largest and best crypto exchange out there. They have the best liquidity and most coins listed. Binance coin is used to reduce trading fees, so everyone that trades there holds some (I'd assume) It's been in this beautiful channel for since Dec 18th. I've been trading the hell out of it for weeks now (I kept thinking I should post it here for everyone but then got lazy, sorry!) Anyway, it has now broken out of the channel so we will see where it goes from here. I'm expecting it to touch 0.00258 BTC which is also it's all time high in BTC value. I plan to sell half of my position there, as I expect a small pullback, but I think it ultimately has much farther to run. Why? Well it has been pumping on a few things. First, they are coming out with a new exchange soon, Which they call Binance DEX. DEX means decentralized exchange, which it technically isn't because Binance is obviously a centralized company. The draw to decentralized exchanges has always been that the exchange doesn't hold your crypto, you do. You connect your wallet, generally Metamask, to the exchange and trade ethereum for alt coins while always being in control of your private keys and crypto. With all the exchange hacks that have happened and continue to happen, there is definitely demand here. So Binance's "DEX" is actually a non-custodial exchange. So this, couple with the assumtion that binance coin (BNB) will be largely used here is causing upward movement. Also, binance is now running ICO's through their platform, and instead of ethereum being the main thing to purchase ICO's tokens like in the past, they of course are using their token so of course demand is rising. There has been no better alt coin to hold over the past year, and I expect that trend to continue throughout 2019. Get yourself some BNB
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KNNutovz/
Another large cap that's poised to pop imo is ethereum. ETH had a real nice run up last month in anticipation of a major protocol upgrade that in part would reduce the mining reward from 3 to 2 ETH/block mined, thus reducing new supply. However 1 day before the hard fork there was a serious bug found in the code so the fork was halted. price subsequently has fallen, however ethereum is now on track again for the hard fork on Feb 22nd I believe, so I expect another rise in price. Also I'm curious about Binance's DEX and how people will connect and trade here. in the past, DEX's use ehtereum to trade because you can't with bitcoin in the same way using Metamask or something like it. Something new just came out that will allow you to connect to a DEX with bitcoin but I can't remember what it's called. And Since it just came out I doubt bpeople will be using it right away. So I'm guessing people will have to go out and buy ETH in order to use Binance's DEX. By the way, this exchange is supposed to go into beta testing next week according to the CEO

So, Based on the seemingly strong bullish cases for these 3 majors over the next month I'm thinking bitcoin will indeed move down to 3300 or 3250 at worst and then the moves in these coins will bring the whole market up in the short term. I still think BTC price ultimately moves below 3k in the next couple months and bottoms around 2600. Some people think we can go as low as 1000. I don't discount that it's possible, but I put it below 10% chance. The other possibly is that we have seen the low at 3150. I can think of many bullish cases for this, but they are mostly short term. The Biance stuff is bullish, Fidelity seemingly coming online in March can be major. Fidelity being one of the largest and most trusted names in finance should go a long way in garnering trust in bitcoin among both retail and institutional investors. But it could be delayed again as it already has once. Also we are still waiting on BAKKT which has been delayed twice since november. It seems apparent that they won't open until April or May. The other elephant in the room is all this bitcoin that Mt Gox has been waiting to reimburse customers from the largest ever hack years ago. I forget how much bitcoin is being reiumbursed but it's a large amount. The selling of some of it by trustees to pay creditors over the past year has been blamed a lot for the price decline due to the amount that has already hit the market. With a bunch more being dispersed it will definitely drop the price IMO. The question is what people will do with this bitcoin. obviously some will sell, and some will hold. I'd guess a lot will be sold right away. Many of the people receiving may have left the space after the hack and will have no interest in keeping it. But the fact is, price will drop leading up to the disbursement due to the uncertainty of how much will be dumped. There still isn't a set date but people are anticipating around May for this to occur. I believe the bear market won't end until after this event, and am hopeful this be result in the final capitulation wick down and then we can begin the new cycle.


Unrelated I was thinking about my price target for next cycle, this is what I came to. Based on bitcoin mined daily; currently BTC block reward is 12.5 BTC every 10 minutes, or 1800 btc/day. currently thats $6 million/day in btc theoretically hitting the market (of course not all is sold right away, but going with it for argument sake) at the peak of 20k btc, that was 36 million/day. Now im not saying that's the main reason for bitcon peaking at 20k, but given that much new supply, eventually demand couldn't keep up and price fell. It would have been impossible for price to keep rising unless new people kept flooding in to keep demand consistent with supply. But adoption runs in cycles just like bitcoin price. When bitcoin has it's halving in may 2020, new supply hitting the market will then be cut in half, only 900 bitcoins/day. My conservative assumption is that by that time the number of people holding will be at least double what it was last cycle. So, double demand and half of new daily supply leads my to guess that next cycle's peak will be 4x of previous, or $80,000 bitcoin. I'm less sure about a timeframe for the peak, but I'll throw out a complete shot in the dark of Late 2020. This analysis is probably way off or flawed in thinking, I didn't just come up with it today so haven't thought long and hard about it yet, but just thought I'd throw it out there.

On the flip-side, not to be a head in the sand bull, I was also thinking today about another far less bullish idea. So we all know that alt coins basically act as leveraged bitcoin, moving in line with it but at a 2-3x pace both up and down. So the question is when is the best time to hold bitcoin? Well, if bitcoin is in an uptrend what do you want to hold? Most would say alt coins because they are going up faster. What should you hold when bitcoin is in a downtrend? definitely not alt coins. So bitcoin? Not me. We also have stable coins. Why hold onto something that losing value? Move into stable coins and wait. So when is holding bitcoin optimal? I'm struggling to make a case for it. The best I can come up with is simply using bitcoin derivatives to go leveraged long in an uptrend instead of messing with alt coins. It is probably easier, since with alt coins you need to factor in what bitcoin is doing along with what your alt is doing. So I here many make the argument that leveraged bitcoin makes more sense than alt coins. however you also incur higher trading fees with a leveraged position. Also it's not as easily accessible, especially for US residents to trade bitcoin derivatives. So I think this can be a possible issue for bitcoin moving forward. I struggle with it because I know bitcoin is by far the best crypto and most other are shit and believe most will eventually go to near zero. But only time will tell. Don't get me wrong, bitcoin still has immense value as a store of value, or as uncensorable, immutable, unconfiscatable value transfer. But due to it's pseudoanonymous properties and the fact that not too many merchants accept it, I'm struggling to see a strong reason to hold it for prolonged periods. And this ultimately is what has driven the price up over time, people buying and holding no matter what. If you don't sell, that supple is essentially off the market and drive price up. But if people start realizing that it's more sensible to trade alt coins in uptrends and sell into stable coins on downtrends, that supply increases and could result in less overall value. Also a lot of value I think comes from using for gray market stuff like funding poker and gambling sites in the US. It seems like the US is on the brink of legalizing this stuff again, so it's use case could be diminished. Even with that use case, most of these sites will accept other crypto's now too. It's cheaper and faster to deposit/withdraw using litecoin for example. Anyway, just some thoughts I had today. Hopefully I'm wrong on this idea and the alt coins die and bitcoin stays it course. Who knows, but I'm beginning to warm up to some alt coins more than I was the past 6 months
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Old 02-08-2019, 06:01 PM
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BTC 3600

The move came, and to the upside! I guess my assumption that some of the other large caps would send the market up was spot on. Litecoin was up 33% at one point today! I sure am glad I set my buy orders right above the resistance level it was hanging at! I wish I hadn't gotten greedy and had closed my short position at 3350 yesterday instead of trying to squeeze it out to 3300. At least My trade was in profit and stop loss hit locking in a small profit. I have set some buy orders right below where we are now ( 115 Ethereum and 3575 bitcoin) I think today's massive move will continue in the short term (2-4 weeks) I haven't had much time to chart stuff out or anything yet but my initial feel is that bitcoin will move up to around 5k before turning back over to test the 3k level again. Before bitcoin was hitting resistance at the 50 day MA around 4200. Now that MA has moved down to about 3600. So long as we close today above there I think it will now serve as nice base, and I now am eyeing the 200 day MA that's currently about 5400, but will probably move down a little by the time bitcoin can reach it. But again, I think this move has, and will continue to be fueled by litecoin and ethereum speculation that should last at least a couple weeks.

So to reiterate, I think now is a great time to take on new trades, especially in btc, eth, and ltc. However, I wouldn't suggest going all-in or anything. I don't think this is the end of the bear market. It's possible; we have now made a higher low, and if we can get above 4200 it will be a higher high too which will be very bullish. But I'm just not convinced yet. Stocking up for long term hold (1+ year) can be done 3 ways effectively. riskiest but most profitable is trying to catch the exact bottom. Or you can dollar cost average anywhere at current price and lower. The more conservative, but arguably best move is to wait until bitcoin break past the major resistance level around 6k, wait for a pullback back to 6k to confirm it as support, then we will be off to the races. That's my suggestion to almost anyone reading this who doesn't plan to trade often, just wants to buy and hold. If price skyrockets again as I expect (80k+ in a few years), it won't matter a whole lot if you bought at 3k, 2k, or 6k. Just don't be the sucker that waits until its 20k+ again before deciding to take the plunge!
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Old 02-08-2019, 06:30 PM
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Also, another tip for trading different crypto in an uptrend is that different market cap coins tend to move in waves. First we generally see the large caps (top 10-15 on coinmarketcap) move the quickest. Then it will shift to mid caps (15-50 on cmc) and lastly the small caps. The last move is kind of subjective because generally small caps will move up faster than most at during any uptrend due to the lack of liquidity in them as a result of their smaller market caps. Also it may never get to that final wave if the uptrend is halted prematurely.

Another tip that coincides with the above is look for the coin(s) in that market cap group that hasn't pumped as much as the others. Your generally best not jumping into a coin that has just skyrocketed. Sure, you may miss out on a much bigger move up, but your better off instead looking for the one that hasn't jumped yet. These assets still continue to all move together generally (Despite their not being much sensible reason for it imo)

Cyurrently the two large caps that didn't move much today relative to the other are XRP and XLM. XLM is what I'm buying some of. It has been massacred for the past 2.5 months. It's been my one big loser throughout admittedly, but it just touched a major support level at 2130 satoshi's a couple days ago. It's currently only about 2200 sats so it barely moved today. Also I like that it fell for a high of 4400 sats in novemeber, so a nice 50% btc value drop. I'm troubled by the fact it fell so much with no good reason behind it, but it's still a coin I have faith in. It's my ride or die coin since i started about a year ago. I'm thinking about making a large long term hold position at this actually, but still moving slow and waiting to be sure that it's going to hold this support level. Currently $.08, bottomed at .07 2 days ago. Although all time $.34 or 4700 sats, so you could either say its bullish that it hasn't fallen too far from ATH like most coins, but then again it might not have as much room for multiple times returns.
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Old 02-19-2019, 06:50 PM
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BTC 3900

As I expected, btc and crypto in general have continued higher, having an explosive past 36 hours. The question remains, have we found the bottom? Should I buy in now? In my opinion, maybe, and maybe. So I'm definitely warming up to the idea that bitcoin may have bottomed out at 3150. From the time it fell to 5k from 6k I've been targeting 3000 or 2950 for the ultimate bottom, so it wouldn't surprise me. However, I still think the same as 11 days ago when we began moving up from 3350 that this current rally will top at 5k at the most and we move back down from there, and then hopefully it can hold previous support around 3k. We really need another hold of that support to further determine that 3k is the bottom. But looking at the historical chart of the last bear market bottoming, we are looking pretty identical right now. % drop from high, RSI bottoming out at 43, the big capitulation wick down, length of time between top and bottom all show that bitcoin has indeed bottomed. Refer to chart below for reference.

Another thing I wanted to touch on is when to buy in big for the next mega cycle. As you can see from the chart below which is the blx index made by brave new coin that is supposed to be a representation of the true bitcoin price and volume index over multiple exchanges over multiple years. The chart is assumed to be quite accurate, especially since NASDAQ just picked it up to use as the industry (wall street) standard bitcoin index. They also have one for Ethereum. The notable thing about this chart to me is the volume. You can see towards the end of 2016 volume is insane compared to all other times in the history of btc. This shows me that this was the point where the vast majority of smart money bought in. Not in 2017 when the major rally started as most would expect. And also not until about 8 months after bitcoin bottomed around $170. Most bitcoin was bought at $650-850.

So my point is that while you definitely don't want to be the moron that buys anywhere near the top, you also don't necessarily have to be a sniper and try to catch the exact bottom in order to reap extraordinary gains. Sure if you bought the bottom at 170 you could have over 100x return, but even by playing it safe you could have nearly 30x returns. I spend everyday looking at it so I certainly am trying to catch the bottom, however I still haven't bought in huge yet. I'll be sure to say when I do, but the point is that you probably have a few months, if not 6+ to mull it over. What I am watching for is that insane level of volume to come in to signal to me that the big players are loading back up for the next cycle. And honestly I don't think that will come until we get to 6k again. That was our major support level, and now will be major resistance. Over 6k and people will feel very confident once again and flood in. If you have not interest in trading and don't want to worry about the volatility, I'd suggest for waiting for this level. I, however, want maximum gains and am thus looking for bitcoin to come back down to 3k and hold, then I plan to go all in.
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Old 02-19-2019, 06:51 PM
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Old 02-19-2019, 06:52 PM
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I can't figure out how to post charts without them getting cropped out, maybe this link to the chart will work

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hSoVrovy/
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Old 03-09-2019, 05:53 PM
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BTC 3900

I think today may be a decision day for bitcoin. We've been ranging from 3650-4150 for over a month now. Have been rejected at 4150 twice now but refuse to drop to new lows. The number I've been targeting as local resistance is 3920. If we can get a daily closing candle (30 min from now) above that I think we make another test of 4150. I think we will break it on our 3rd attempt. Then 4300ish is my next resistance level. If that can break there should be easy sailing to 4900. 5300 is my most optimistic target currently, with little to no faith we can breach that before moving lower once more.

Is the low in? I'm still putting it at 40-50% that 3150 was the bottom and we wont go lower. 75% chance that it won't go much lower (2950 is still my low target). Maybe 10% chance price goes sub $2000. Time will tell, but regardless if we have bottomed or not, I don't expect a quick move upwards. I would actually be somewhat surprised if we break 10k at any point this year. Expect at least another 6 months of price below the biggest resistance level of 6k. That's the true test of whether or not we are in a bull market.

I am however warming up to alt coins again. I've been weary for at least 6 months, half expecting serious regulation/fines/imprisonments to destroy the alt coin market and bring bitcoin lower with it. But it just doesn't seem to be happening. It still may, governments take a long time to act, but it really seems that governments are taking a hands off approach and letting innovation live. And accordingly I've been trading alts a lot more recently. With bitcoin staying fairly consistent it gives alts room to run. Most have seemingly bottomed out over the past few months and are now giving really nice gains. Binance is owning the exchange space, and their coin BNB has been on a fucking tear for months now but especially last couple weeks. I had been trading it a lot and making great money but unfortunately missed the last monster move. I had exited most of my position around $11 to watch it go to $15 a couple days later. oh well, win some lose some. Now I'm just waiting for it to retrace enough to get back in. Cardano (ADA) and Stellar (XLM) I've been holding for a month or so with little to no movement, but have both finally began moving up today. I hope it's finally their time to shine, I think it is.

More than anything, sentiment on social media (twitter and youtube) has been great recently. Lots of optimism. Probably because people are finally making some money, so it's not really a technical signal to show we have bottomed and are going to move up. But at the same time, crypto is a pretty sentiment and hype driven asset class, so strong sentiment and optimism can go a long way I believe.

But like i said, I think the next couple days, possibly hours will determine the trajectory of bitcoin's next move. We are butted right against the long term downtrend diagonal, so odds would probably say we will be rejected once more and move lower. A break through the diagonal however will be a strong sign that the bear market is over and it's blue skies above. Chart showing diagonal below. Stay tuned and position yourselves wisely.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pXeM4P2E/
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