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Old 11-07-2017, 09:48 AM
cman cman is offline
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Hanes Brand (HBI)

This is a cycle stock for me. It has cycled down again below $20 for absolutely no reason. 3 times in the last 15 months it gets up to the $24 mark and drops below $20. I am buying 100 shares and will sell when it crosses $22 usually takes about 60 to 90 day range.

Not sexy but a 10% + return in less then 4 months out paces any Stock market return % on a annual return.

This stock just reported earnings on tap with what was expected around 45 cents per share, revenue growth was the same as exoected and they did not expire a larger then expected bad debt.

The 3 major triggers that can drop a stock after a earnings call

Happy Hunting and any advice or comments are appreciated

wde
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Old 11-07-2017, 11:33 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Hanesbrands (HBI) reported a 2.2% year-over-year rise in its 3Q17 sales to $1.8 billion. That was in line with analysts' expectations and company guidance.


CNN Money

from
HBI - HanesBrands Inc Forecast - CNNMoney.com

Stock Price Forecast

The 16 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for HanesBrands Inc have a median target of 28.50, with a high estimate of 34.00 and a low estimate of 21.00. The median estimate represents a +48.48% increase from the last price of 19.20

AK gets 100 @ 19.13 near the bottom of an upwardly sloping channel. It is now 19.15 It is looking good!

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Old 11-07-2017, 02:54 PM
cman cman is offline
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Thanks AK.


I really like a couple of cycle stocks it helps keep confidence high when you step out on another stock that is a true growth stock.

wde
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Old 11-07-2017, 02:56 PM
cman cman is offline
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Still cannot figure why it hits that $24 and just cannot seem to breakout.

Still it is a steady stock for me and while I dont live on dividends it does pay for the buying and the selling at .15 per share if I have to wait for it to go up some

wde
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Old 11-07-2017, 03:14 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Originally Posted by cman View Post
Still cannot figure why it hits that $24 and just cannot seem to break out.
wde
Some things can be shown in a minute by minute chart. At 13:01 the price rises to $19.15 and hits no higher for 17 minutes. For certain this happened because one or more Sellers have a sell order of over 100,000 shares at exactly $19.15. All you have to do is count the shares traded starting with one minute of somewhere over 61,000 and add up the smaller minutes. Also, people think in terms of percentages of 1. A trade of 19.155 would would be made by a computer.

I'm not certain if this helps at all but that is how a ceiling looks like and why it forms. The accuracy of the minute chart will be lost in a day or so on my software.

It is interesting that in Jan 2017, the price hit exactly today's low of 18.98 and went up.
https://www.google.com/search?q=hbi+...hrome&ie=UTF-8

Last edited by AuburnKid; 11-07-2017 at 03:17 PM.
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Old 11-08-2017, 05:54 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Quote:
It is interesting that in Jan 2017, the price hit exactly today's low of 18.98 and went up.
Some analysts would call this a "double bottom", indicating price will go up. If the "double bottom" on the chart holds, the price should not fall below 18.98

Also in March 1 of their analysts said it would out perform, in Oct. 3 said outperform.

Last edited by AuburnKid; 11-08-2017 at 06:00 AM.
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Old 11-08-2017, 09:13 AM
Jumpsteady Jumpsteady is offline
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Just bought HBI 100 @ $19.32 on 11-08-17
Also, bought SPY 10 @ $257.77 last week 11-01-17

Thanks cman and AK!
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Old 11-08-2017, 03:41 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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HBI Up $61 per hundred. SPY up .44 or .17%
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Old 11-08-2017, 08:04 PM
cman cman is offline
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Solid day again this is not sexy but it is solid stock, with Under Armour (UA) losing shelf space and cutting back active wear products I think HBI may have chance to break that barrier this time but I am still going to stay with my strategy of selling at my target of between $22 and $23.

Thanks Jump and AK for the comments it is appreciated

AK keep coming with the charts I love them and it beings to light some of the cycles I like to follow

wde
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:13 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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AK keep coming with the charts I love them and it brings to light some of the cycles I like to follow.

wde
Take a look at SNAP chart. It appears that some people dumped 3 million shares just after the 3pm closing yesterday which is commonly when sensitive news is put out. It is out of range of my minute chart but it happened inside 5 minutes. Then from 5 am until 5:33 it rises to 16.09 and has dropped down to about where I shorted it months ago. I was thinking of adding to my 100 short @ 16 by 1000 but by the time I figured it out, it was too late. Oh, but a sell order @ 16 for 1000 GTC would have bound up $16,000 but would have been triggered for a sweet $4,000 winner.
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Old 11-10-2017, 04:50 AM
cman cman is offline
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Explain how that works plz. You set a auto trade in a after market account and then it still locks in at that price?

wde
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Old 11-10-2017, 06:11 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Quote:
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Explain how that works plz. You set an auto trade in a aftermarket account and then it still locks in at that price?

wde
I sold SNAP short about 3 months ago. I posted it somewhere on this forum. Then the stock price rises against me to 16.55 on Oct 16 and stays above 16 for about one week. It would have been a great time to add to my short position but I was late and I did not notice it until too late. What a much better capitalized investor might have done is put a sell order for 1000 in @ 16.00 GTC or good until canceled.

This would tie up $16,000 for three weeks. That would have been really quite a dumb move. It gives you "dead money" and if SNAP were again to rise to over 16, it might have been because of a buyout that might have pushed it to 50 or more, no one knows. It was just one of my musings that while true, require an impossible knowledge of the future.

What was possible was to research the stock and know when the 3Q earning are realized. Then if you were watching the fundamentals of SNAP, you might have used Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and again sold short on Monday ahead of the report. That was doable and investors who watch stock prices relative to earnings do this every day. I am too lazy to do this as it is a lot of work. I trained to do this back in 1974 but I have not done it in a long time. I really did use paper and pencil when I started accounting and I used a slide rule for the math.

Every once in a while some really screwy market moves occur. The biggest release that business follows is the crude oil/gasoline/heating oil inventories due on certain exact days. Things move so fast now that the speed of electrons through copper wire vs fiber optic or even the speed of light must be considered. Last Nov. 1 @ 11:00.00 it was released. What happened is clear but the why is much harder to figure out. The price of gasoline for the Dec. contract, expiring on Nov. 21, shot up 20 cents at $420/penny from 1.62 to 1.82 because of someone's "expert system" of computerized trading decides that there is a shortage in less than one minute. Inside the same minute, someone else's expert system gets the info a fraction of a minute later, computes that @ 1.82 the price is too high and pushes the price back to 1.62 where it then slowly falls in price like nothing happened.

I am certain that the time when each computer got the report was what made it a big deal. Another bank might tell its brokers to not trade in the first ten minutes until 11:10. That would make more sense.
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Old 11-10-2017, 10:44 PM
cman cman is offline
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Quote:
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Some analysts would call this a "double bottom", indicating price will go up. If the "double bottom" on the chart holds, the price should not fall below 18.98

Also in March 1 of their analysts said it would out perform, in Oct. 3 said outperform.
I think this is very important...just as the same as this stock getting to $24 at the high dropping.

Have automatic buys and sells inadvertently created a predictable stock price as long as for the most part margin/revenue does not vary too much. Theoretically, through buy backs and dividend it should break a ceiling but because of perceived competition keeps it stamped down?

wde
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Old 11-11-2017, 03:19 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Quote:
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I think this is very important...just as the same as this stock getting to $24 at the high dropping.

Have automatic buys and sells inadvertently created a predictable stock price as long as for the most part margin/revenue does not vary too much?

Theoretically, through buy backs and dividend it should break a ceiling but because of perceived competition keeps it stamped down?

wde
The answer is not about computerized trading. W.D. Gann was trading 100 years ago. Many of his works are still used. It's for sale on Amazon but it is so old it went into the public domain for free. See

http://gann.su/book/eng/W.D.%20Gann%...s%20Course.pdf
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Old 01-11-2018, 09:46 AM
cman cman is offline
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Hanes crossed $22 today and I just sold at $22.09. So right about 2 months and it cycled back up.

So I will wait and see if it breaks out or if it cycles down again I will probably get back in..

Off to a good start today

wde
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Old 02-02-2018, 10:51 AM
TREY TREY is offline
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Good time to get in on Hanes? And how confident are you in synergy?
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Old 02-02-2018, 06:11 PM
cman cman is offline
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I am confident Synergy that if they want this very important med to survive that sometime in the next year a jump will happen either through their increasing revenue....or through another company buying them out...

HBI again cycling down again...it hit almost 24 and is down ..personally I think this next week is a good time to short some stocks if you have the cash and option ability...as I think the interest rate hike will cause the market to tumble some more..

I would wait until HBI goes below 19.50

SGYP your call on that one...I am long...this med is not going away but there is only one other true drug in its class and it has been around for years...

I personally will be holding onto the stock through 18 unless it moves to above $5. I think it is a best in class drug...but this is a one trick pony drug company

So patience is the only choice

wde
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Old 02-08-2018, 08:58 PM
cman cman is offline
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Shorting would have been a nice quick win...I did not do it either...

However, HBI has crossed back to my cycle number. I will probably place an order after Monday closings to see the reactions. I still think the economy is strong and HBI which should be able to repatriate some money will benefit from it

wde
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Old 02-23-2018, 11:55 PM
cman cman is offline
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I have held off placing an order because this is the first time HBI has faced a "miss"...previously their dips occurred not backed up by any measurable..

They missed earnings (1 cent) for the first time in a long time. I am concerned that their lack of growth of E-commerce is starting to catch up.

UnderArmour is surging thanks to E-commerce and represents a bigger threat.

PE is still favorable and I may still get in again...they did not cut dividend which is positive but I am taking a wait and see approach.

With that said I want to thank HBI for being solid as heck for me in 2016/2017 with a predictable cycle. I love that type of stock

wde
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