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  #1  
Old 10-31-2017, 09:37 AM
cman cman is offline
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Synergy Pharmaceutical "SGYP"

This is a perfect example of them rolling out a 2nd generation drug that quite frankly has benefited from the first companies research and has developed a drug with better or the same efficacy with half the side effects.

Trulance is a drug that treat Irritable Bowel Syndrome and now they are expecting to receive the go ahead to treat other versions of the colon issues.

They have taken about 10 % of the market from the mother ship of Trulista and now they expect to grow exponentially over the next year.

Currently trading at $2.70 near its 52 week low...

To other major funds have set target sell price between 6 to 8

I am buying in and I will consider selling 25% if it gets to $4 in a short time

Always appreciate the thoughts and advice anyone has

wde
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Old 11-03-2017, 03:29 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Nice call. I'm in for 1000 @ $2.99

Did you mean

Two other major funds have set target sell price between 6 to 8

I was long 2 /NQZ7 futures today. I sold and am now short 1 /NQZ7 with buy stop @ 6289
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:45 PM
cman cman is offline
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Yes two funds ...I hate using my phone to access ..lol

Nice on the long and short...

I want to start doing more shorts

wde
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Old 11-04-2017, 04:24 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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I always try to open a new account with a short for good luck. Longs grind up but like the crude 140----->35 was in months.
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Old 11-04-2017, 04:56 PM
cman cman is offline
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Ok you win!!

I do not understand the lingo I am making a guess u shorted crude oil from 140 until it bottomed at 35?

thanks
wde
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Old 11-05-2017, 07:41 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Originally Posted by cman View Post
Ok you win!!

I do not understand the lingo I am making a guess u shorted crude oil from 140 until it bottomed at 35?

thanks
wde
Oh, I wish, but I caught a piece of it. Just an example. I did short Enron @ 75 however. The wife told me to it.
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Old 11-05-2017, 05:45 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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This is easier to understand if you put a book or thick paper over the chart. You do not know the future.
Not yet. This is a "Head and Shoulders" formation.

In the 1990's, you could hardly watch the news without learning about Enron. The first time I bought
it in 1997 at 35, I sold at 43, went short and bought it at 36 in an upwardly moving channel.
I forget what I did then but I thought it was wise to exit all Enron positions and buy GENE stock.

Now reveal the left side up to Jan. 2000 @ about 75. The beginning of a left shoulder is forming
but you still do not know it yet. Reveal chart to point A. This is the head at about 89. But you still
do not know it yet. At point B, or maybe the next time price hits 80, the authors of the red lines
places the more shallow of the two red lines as a resistance line. He has it extend to the right off
into unknown prices. The share price drops to his green line, then rises to his resistance line @ mid Dec 2000. This is the place he would have placed a Sell order to sell X-number of ENE at about 78. From that time on, a sale short on any rise would be a winner.

Quote:
It took nearly a decade from the time the first flimsy wind
turbines were installed before the performance of California wind projects could dispel the idespread belief among the public and investors that wind energy was just a tax scam.
Read more: Articles: Wind Energy's Ghosts


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Last edited by AuburnKid; 11-05-2017 at 05:48 PM.
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Old 11-08-2017, 09:59 PM
cman cman is offline
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Synergy was down most the day and rallied at the end to wind up .02 cents. They are do to announce quarterly results after market closes tomorrow. I think this will be a positive finding as a lot of negative outcomes are tried to be buried after market closes on Friday.

I am deeply invested in this stock and I think a little leaking of findings will make its way at some point but overall I am looking for another good pickup.

Good luck to us all

wde
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Old 11-09-2017, 10:44 AM
Jumpsteady Jumpsteady is offline
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Bought 500 sh @ $2.93 11-09-17. Let’s see what happens.
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Old 11-10-2017, 05:20 AM
cman cman is offline
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They announced earnings and total script increases of 105% and revenue up 117%.

After hour trading up .12 cents very good news!!

I expect a strong day ahead of probably a average to a weak opening at the bell..

GL Jump this is my strongest position stock and I think after reading the conference call they will over the next quarter raise earnings due to a decrease in R&D expenses and the fact they expect market share to grow a bunch.

Good luck to us bro

wde
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Old 11-10-2017, 08:26 AM
Jumpsteady Jumpsteady is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cman View Post
They announced earnings and total script increases of 105% and revenue up 117%.

After hour trading up .12 cents very good news!!

I expect a strong day ahead of probably a average to a weak opening at the bell..

GL Jump this is my strongest position stock and I think after reading the conference call they will over the next quarter raise earnings due to a decrease in R&D expenses and the fact they expect market share to grow a bunch.

Good luck to us bro

wde
Good luck to you as well. Thanks for all of the good info!
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Old 11-10-2017, 03:21 PM
Jumpsteady Jumpsteady is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jumpsteady View Post
Bought 500 sh @ $2.93 11-09-17. Let’s see what happens.
Added 11-10-17 another 500 sh @ $2.80
Now own 500 sh @ avg cost of $2.87

Last edited by Jumpsteady; 11-10-2017 at 03:23 PM. Reason: correct avg cost basis
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Old 11-10-2017, 08:28 PM
cman cman is offline
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Lost .25 cents today. Not what I was expecting but it is not to be unexpected that a company that is still neg earnings. It cut the negative earnings in half this quarter and should get close to break even and profitable by the end of the 1st qtr in 18.

I have almost 1800 shares now so I am not backing off. I still think that as investors research the stock it will continue to grow this quarter as a growth stock..

but too say I am not disappointed especially as after hour trading was up .12 cents would not be truthful. I really thought the earnings report would spur some excitement toward this stock.

Jump and AK thanks again for the read and lets hope for a better week next week.

wde
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Old 11-11-2017, 06:14 AM
Jumpsteady Jumpsteady is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jumpsteady View Post
Added 11-10-17 another 500 sh @ $2.80
Now own 500 sh @ avg cost of $2.87
Correction to shares now owned -

It should be 1,000 sh @ avg cost of $2.87
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Old 11-14-2017, 11:08 AM
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The CFO for Synergy should be jailed...

I agree with the author of this article

Before I would not have sold 100% of my shares at $4 now I will..still think takeover will happen and hopefully soon...

The CFO and the Management team at Synergy have bungled this time for their company


Below is the article detailing the underhanded way they handled their Conference call to end the Quarter and then Monday they diluted the existing shares by the secondary offering


Synergy: How To Destroy Shareholder Value

Nov. 14, 2017 10:55 AM ET
Socialism, or communism as it is sometimes called, is merely a secular religion, where the State becomes a god.” - Stefan Molyneux
I am starting to believe that the most important executive at most small Tier 3 and Tier 4 biotech/biopharma concerns is not the CEO. It is also not the Chief Medical Officer or the head of Marketing. It is the CFO.

Planning for and funding operational needs while clearly communicating and keeping to plans with shareholders are paramount to credibility (and one’s stock price). Doing this while ensuring not placing the company in a position that puts it behind the ‘eight ball’ in capital raise negotiations can be a tricky balancing act. Those that do it well can enhance the valuation on their stock. Doing it incompetently, can and does erode stock value.

Unfortunately, in recent raises for Redhill Biopharma (RDHL) and even more perplexingly for Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP) after it just closed on a $300 million debt facility, the CFO in question not only did not do their job competently but caused their shareholders to lower their expectations for the company’s prospects because of the way they bungled the process. I still like the prospects for both company’s pipelines and/or key drugs, but management has to be put in a ‘penalty box’ given the lack of faith in the CFO being able to do their job without destroying shareholder value.

Let's take a look at the sequence of events that have happened at Synergy over the past few days and why the stock has declined on what were solid third quarter results.

Friday - The company reports earnings that beat both on the top and the bottom lines. Trulance scripts more than double sequentially from the second quarter. Encouraging results as I noted, but the stock fell almost 10% on the day in what was a weak tape for small biotech equities to end the week.



On Monday, we found out why the stock declined on the earnings beat on Friday. The stock dropped again as the company disclosed it was doing an additional $56 million secondary offering via an equity raise with stock offered at $2.58 with warrants exercisable at $2.86 per common share.

This was shocking to shareholders, myself included, who thought a recently arranged $300 million debt facility removed any short or near term funding needs for the company. Unfortunately, unbeknownst to shareholders and evidently analysts was a provision in the debt facility that had provisions to get the second $100 million tranche the company needed to have $128 million in cash on hand at the end of January.

Of course, this was not known to shareholders and the company obfuscated around this during its conference call

Turning to Slide 15, ensuring a strong financial foundation, as we previously announced in early September, we were able to execute on a debt financing of up to 300 million structured as a senior secured loan from CRG. We borrowed $100 million at the time of closing. This is an eight-year term loan, with maturity date of June 30, 2025, has an annual interest rate of 9.5%.

The deal structure allows us to pay interest only on quarterly basis for the first five years and we can elect to pick a portion of that interest for the first several quarters. This gives us flexibility to focus spend on the launch period and driving demand in growing revenue. This structure also provides us with access to multiple tranches of up to an additional $200 million in non-dilutive capital should we choose to draw upon it.

Under the terms of the agreement, we have access to an additional $100 million on or before February 28, 2018 and up to two additional tranches of up to $50 million on or before March 29, 2019 subject to certain conditions. While I cannot comment on specific conditions required to access the additional tranches beyond what’s publicly disclosed, I can tell you that we are confident in our ability to meet the conditions that will allow us to access to the additional capital if and when we need it."
Obviously, this put the company in a self-imposed bind. Synergy ended the third quarter with approximately $118 million in cash and marketable securities on hand. This is $10 million less than the $128 million spelled out in the conditions needed to get the second $100 million debt tranche at the end of January. With the next binary event for the company being January 24th (FDA date for approving Trulance for IBS-C), the company's 'window' to raise this additional funding was approximately November 24th.

This obviously did not put the company in a strong negotiating position, thus the secondary offering on terms that rightly was not well-received in the market.

I would not be surprised if company gets a hostile bid in $4 to $5 range after IBS-C approval ala what PDL Biopharma (PDLI) recently did with Neos Therapeutics (NEOS) which that company rightly rejected as its shareholders were justifiably unwilling to part with their shares for $10.25 apiece.

A $4 to $5 a share price level would have been unthinkable before this raise, but management has lost a lot of credibility and major shareholders may now being willing consider buyout in that range. Before this bungled secondary, I would not have taken less than $7.00 a share for my Synergy holdings, now I would be more than happy to take $4.50. One has to doubt the competence of management especially the CFO even if he is newly appointed at this point despite what is a new 'best of breed' drug in Trulance.

I think the stock stays in a ~$2 to ~$3 range until Trulance is approved for IBS-C some 10 weeks out thanks to the warrant overhang as well as a loss of shareholder confidence. The good news, if there is any, is that between the secondary raise, eventual warrant exercise, and the second $100 million tranche; hopefully the CFO will be able to get through 2018 without another dilutive move. Better yet would be for this company to be acquired by a firm with a stronger management team; albeit at a much lower level than shareholders were hoping for before recent events. Given this, I am not adding to or selling my stake in Synergy Pharmaceuticals.

I am licking my wounds like everyone else on this one at the moment. The picture above is of Synergy's new CFO, which in my mind has destroyed shareholder value unnecessarily. Any fellow shareholders that want to voice their displeasure around recent events, here is the link for Synergy's Investors Relations department.

Boy, those French! They have a different word for everything.” - Steve Martin
Note: We continue to put out a couple of free in depth reports on small biotech, biopharma and medical device stocks every month. Our last report came out Friday. To register to get this free investment analysis or to get past reports, just click HERE.

Thank You & Happy Hunting,

Bret Jensen

Founder, The Biotech Forum, The Busted IPO Forum & The Insiders Forum



Disclosure: I am/we are long neos, rdhl,sgyp.
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Old 01-22-2018, 07:44 PM
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SGYP has a huge week as they receive word from FDA if they will receive endorsment of their drug "Trulance" for expanded diagnosis treatment approval for Chronic Constipation. which will lead to enhanced Medicare approval

The stock was up 10% today to near where I purchased the initial 1000 shares at $2.64.

I will have a decision to make, as I believe in this drug, just not this companies leadership.

I fully believe the drug will be approved on the 26th by the FDA which will give it two "best in class" status for both conditions. Which I believe will take it back to where I bought most of my shares. However, on the the 1/31 they have to demonstrate a current cash position of 130 Million in order to free up their loan...otherwise the company will have to consider another way to gain cash to keep building sales.

Sales are strong and burn rate is still high, but most is for sales force, but any misses over the next 9 days then the stock will get ugly again...

wde
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Old 01-24-2018, 01:44 PM
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Trulance gets approved for expanded Constipation treatments. Now SGYP has to show enough cash flow by the end of the month to keep from having to raise funds by other means...

Then I can see this stock growing quickly

FDA approves Trulance for Chronic Idiopathic Constipation

wde
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Old 02-01-2018, 11:16 AM
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Well Synergy just posted that they met the threshold of 128 mil that releases the loan so as not to have to look for secondary funding. This past week as most of the gains were given up in anticipation of SGYP failing to meet this threshold this should make way for a positive quarter and by March 1st I would think this stock should be marching back to above initial buy levels of $2.70.

Ideal would still be a buy/offer as Synergy is still having to fund/market their own drug. Which slows this potential stocks growth...but it is clear management is wanting to take this drug as far as they can to maximize its offer.

wde
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:04 PM
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Nice jump today +22%
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Old 03-04-2018, 08:30 PM
cman cman is offline
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yes they exceeded earnings expectations and the new CEO recently announced a deal with a Canadian company for cash to expand "Trulance" prescriptions

The CEO also left open the possibility of buyout/partnership in the US which the old CEO and founder of Synergy was against that caused this terrible "burn" through rate of cash to develop a sales force to grow the market share.

I am hopeful and I am going to be long with this stock as I think it can get to $4 by itself but I still think a buyout is the best option to really make money with this stock

wde
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Old 08-25-2018, 11:33 PM
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It seems that we are having another rally...but it is not a major jump...it is more like a structured company should grow

Decreased (down 10 mil) Revenues exceeded projections...projected to be profitable in 2019

The stock has a shot to get back to above 6$ a share by the end of 19

wde
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Old 10-26-2018, 06:58 PM
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Ouch.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-26-2018 at 07:00 PM.
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:26 AM
cman cman is offline
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Has been a horrible run. They have continued to miss revenues and have now lowered them.

They have to reverse expenses now. The drug is approved and has a track to be sold. They need more partnerships in other countries.

If they file bankruptcy I am stuck until they emerge....or I can sell now and lose

Their cash burn rate has been reduced quiet significantly and I expect the board to go symbolic soon and not accept salaries

However, it is touch and go at this time

Unless you are really wanting a roller coaster avoid

wde
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Old 11-17-2018, 11:44 PM
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I think they have enough cash until the next quarter. However, living quarter to the next is no way to live for a company.

I cannot tell you how bad I feel I even brought this stock in here. I personally have lost a ton. I thought it would do well and I do think it is a good drug, it is just led by a company that is so greedy, that they could not sell to a company that could distribute it


wde
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