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  #1  
Old 05-13-2013, 12:59 PM
inSite inSite is offline
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Two Nice Short Opportunities

Found my home in stocks while football is not being played. Can't seem to get into the other sports so much. Here are two short opportunities I have been keeping an eye on.

1. ANGI - Angie's list. Just look at their financials and you will understand. The only thing keeping this thing afloat is venture capital. The idea of the site is ridiculous because there are free sites just like it. They spend half of their budget on these stupid commercials. Revenue is high, IMO maxed out, but they aren't making a profit. Look for this to go to $5 a share before they decide to make their service free and somehow get ad revenue.

2. LOTE - Lot78. One of the most successful pump and dump schemes I have ever seen - and they haven't dumped yet. This stock rose from under $1 to over $10 in a months time.
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Old 06-20-2013, 01:05 PM
whodi whodi is online now
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Nice up trend so far for ANGI. I would start shorting this one BIG TIME under 23.50, which would be a break up the current up trend and then the start of a downtrend. Next support level is around 20 and then low 12s
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Old 11-22-2014, 08:50 PM
ILikeToParty ILikeToParty is offline
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ANGI - 5.78 today

LOTE a penny????


Are you a fucking magician?????


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Old 11-22-2014, 08:55 PM
Roma Roma is offline
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great call
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:22 PM
inSite inSite is offline
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Thanks guys, these were just too obvious.
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Old 11-29-2014, 07:42 PM
pkking pkking is offline
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Thumbs up ! I should start paying attention to your points
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Old 06-01-2015, 02:01 AM
nutty_bar nutty_bar is online now
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I came across this thread and was very amazed!! Are you still around onsite? Any hot stock tips?
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Old 07-16-2016, 11:01 PM
Briefcase Briefcase is offline
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Any opinion about TSLA?
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Old 07-18-2016, 01:34 PM
capainter capainter is offline
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Any opinion about TSLA?
Awesome cars, but they haven't found a way to be even close to profitable yet. They lose like $2B a year. They are going to be a strictly super premium good for the foreseeable future. I think the low end units (model 3) will be way less popular than they anticipate and they can't make/sell enough of the premium products to justify their valuation, even if they could make them at a profit (which they can't). If there is demand for the model 3, they will need to spend enormous amounts to increase production enough to meet demand.

People that drive Teslas are generally wealthy and have other more practical vehicles for longer trips. There won't be a way to stop on the road and charge your battery quickly anytime soon (gas station equivalent). Charging is slow in general and you need a home charger with a 240v outlet, which most people have to have an electrician install. If you rent and do not own your home, this is likely not even an option. Simply put, the model 3 isn't very practical, especially for the target audience (the young, childless, high expendable cash, urban renter group).

My main concern with TSLA is that they are totally reliant on an artificially high (current) stock price to continue to raise money to recoup the cash they are burning. It's a massively capital intensive business and prospects of operating at a profit anytime soon just aren't there. If they can't keep a share price around $200, each new issuance of stock is going to dilute the existing share holders more on a % basis, causing the share price to continue to fall and a potentially ugly downward spiral.

Elon Musk is an incredibly pompous individual but he has done a good job keeping the company (and stock price) afloat during a difficult period with a lot hype and promises. Smoke and mirrors for sure, but you can't argue with results.

The market will always overpay for a growth story and Tesla is that, to a degree. As long as he can keep the share price in the $200-250 range and keep selling more cars than he did last year, he's going to be able to keep raising cash at a high valuation and be fine.

I don't mind the Solar City deal in all honesty. The market is allowing him to raise cash very inexpensively and by some metrics, Solar City is super cheap right now, if you believe in their business model and the credit of their customers. It's only like 5% of Tesla's market cap and a potentially huge business opportunity. Of course Musk is getting criticized because he's robbing Peter to pay Paul, but based on current market conditions it's a low risk, high reward move.

At some point I think the market will give up on the company (going to hinge on Model 3 sales/production levels), and unless the company can get to breakeven/profitable before then, the market will recognize that there's a strong compound effect to a falling share price, and it will drop precipitously. I just don't see that happening anytime soon. Money is too cheap right now.

To review:
-Love the product. Price is where it is because its a cool fucking car and a growth story
-Horrible profitability
-Musk is smart but too pompous and impractical for my liking
-Probably status quo for another year or two, losses eaten up by new cheap, dumb capital. Don't see a whole lot of upside or downside prior to Model 3 playing out
-If Model 3 demand and/or production capability isn't to the market's liking, stock drops hard and fast because their main/best source of capital is reliant upon a high price, and the model 3 is the product that is supposed to make the company profitable
-Even if Model 3 clicks on all cylinders, I don't know that a meaningful profit can be achieved. These cars have extremely high capital and materials costs.

But always, always keep in mind, rates are zero and nobody has anywhere else to put money other than crap like TSLA so really who knows.

Last edited by capainter; 07-18-2016 at 01:43 PM.
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Old 07-20-2016, 01:45 PM
Briefcase Briefcase is offline
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Tesla TSLA
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Old 07-20-2016, 01:45 PM
Briefcase Briefcase is offline
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Current price $229.00 per share.
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Old 07-20-2016, 01:46 PM
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Elon Musk has become a hero but will it continue?
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Old 07-20-2016, 01:46 PM
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Obviously I don't believe so.

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Old 07-21-2016, 12:26 PM
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Old 07-21-2016, 02:10 PM
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Old 07-21-2016, 02:30 PM
capainter capainter is offline
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Are you shorting/playing put options?

https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux in case anyone missed it..
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Old 07-21-2016, 02:44 PM
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Yes
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Old 08-03-2016, 06:51 PM
BFDwager BFDwager is offline
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Are there any legalized MaryJane stocks worth an investment?
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Old 08-03-2016, 08:35 PM
skidmarkymark skidmarkymark is offline
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Two Nice Short Opportunities

I'm owning Canopy Growth Corp. up here in Canada. It just went from OTC listing to being listed on the Toronto stock exchange which gave it a pretty good run up in price.

They're the biggest grow organization in Canada and Marijuana is to be federally legalized in 2017 here. Although there are tons of dispensaries operating right under the government noses, they seem to turn a blind eye for the most part.

It was a small play for me but I am in long on it. Make sure to do your DD because you can never count on the government to get anything done haha.
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Old 09-01-2016, 08:43 AM
inSite inSite is offline
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On the original post, LOTE, haven't seen anything that obvious in years. The SEC really cracked down on these penny stock pump & dumps, so we aren't seeing anything overvalued in that way now. I mean, Amazon is overvalued, but I would never short it. I don't see how Facebook has revenue considering I don't think their ads have led to a purchase once for me personally. But big companies have an ad budget and they are going to spend it somewhere. And facebook owns instagram which is the future, short term at least.

I have had big success with one thing only lately, going long on low float nasdaq stocks that are undervalued .. float under 5 million shares, cash value and or book value under the current price. Two examples this year off the top of my head, CLRB and TOPS . These have already made their moves so I am not recommending buying these now. If you do find a deal like those though, important to note they are prone to manipulation. Hedge funds will run them down to shake people out of their positions and buy more shares cheap.
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Old 09-01-2016, 09:23 AM
capainter capainter is offline
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TSLA down 4% today... another bad quarter and indications that they will have to sell more stock by end of year. I'll probably play the downward momentum short term if we get a bounce today or tomorrow and there's a good entry point.
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Old 09-17-2016, 01:31 PM
cornbread cornbread is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skidmarkymark View Post
I'm owning Canopy Growth Corp. up here in Canada. It just went from OTC listing to being listed on the Toronto stock exchange which gave it a pretty good run up in price.

They're the biggest grow organization in Canada and Marijuana is to be federally legalized in 2017 here. Although there are tons of dispensaries operating right under the government noses, they seem to turn a blind eye for the most part.

It was a small play for me but I am in long on it. Make sure to do your DD because you can never count on the government to get anything done haha.
Great pick on CGC!

Pharmacann is another good Canadian Marijuana stock. It just had a big lift, I would wait till it settles back down a little then take a look for long term. You should check out The Crows Nest by Jimmy Mengel. Fantastic monthly newsletter runs about $4 a month. No hype or get rich schemes just great safe investing strategies. We were on cgc when it was under $1 and called Tweed. Jimmy toured the facilities and interviewed the CEO at the old Hershey factory in Ontario. As always use your own due diligence first.
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Old 09-17-2016, 02:46 PM
skidmarkymark skidmarkymark is offline
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Great pick on CGC!

Pharmacann is another good Canadian Marijuana stock. It just had a big lift, I would wait till it settles back down a little then take a look for long term. You should check out The Crows Nest by Jimmy Mengel. Fantastic monthly newsletter runs about $4 a month. No hype or get rich schemes just great safe investing strategies. We were on cgc when it was under $1 and called Tweed. Jimmy toured the facilities and interviewed the CEO at the old Hershey factory in Ontario. As always use your own due diligence first.
Oh nice yeah ill check it out. Never can have too much reading material.

I wish i bought more really, i think its about to blow up here. They're already pushing the boundaries with the number of dispensaries up here. Basically acting like its officially legal when it is not yet.

Canopy is opening up a big new facility just a bit south of where i live so that is a good sign for the future.
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Old 09-17-2016, 06:56 PM
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I only put $1000 on it, I'm kicking myself in the ass for not buying more. There is another one that is a longshot but cheap. Medbox falisified income statements to raise stock price. They were hit with sanctions and the stock plummeted from $10/share to less than a penny. Its all time high was $106 but that was an initial surge that didnt last.
Everyone was fired they hired an executive from Pepsi and changed the company to Notis Global NGLB. They have been overly compliant and transparent in running the company. I like the new Board running the company and the way its being run. Right now you can get 1 million shares for $150-$200. If it goes up to a tenth of the $10 your a millionaire. I thought it was worth the gamble, I got it at $200 for 1.1 million shares. Better odds than the lottery
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Old 10-10-2016, 10:46 PM
Briefcase Briefcase is offline
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TSLA $200...it's easier to play with a lead.
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