Aqueduct Friday Card

[Joeaveragefan]

Aqueduct

Courtesy of Michael Dempsey

Weather: Mainly sunny. High 46F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.


AQU Race 1 Clm $12,500B (12:20 ET)

ML FAIR
#1 Cure
6/5 7/5
#2 Pervis
8/1 9/2
#3 System Restore
3/1 7/2
#5 Butler Cabin
5/1 9/2

Analysis: #1 Cure stalked the early pace and finished with good interest in a runner up finish behind a loose o the lead gate to wire winner last out against $15K non winners of three or a race in six months. He was claimed out of the race by the Jacobson barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim and has been live at the meet. He owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in late pace numbers. The eight year old gelding has lost a step or two from his younger days and has run as cheap as $4K, but he looks like he fits in this spot and the barn has been live at the meet.

#2 Pervis beat $7.5K non winners of two last out, angling to the outside with a good late rally. He turns around quickly here off the claim by the low % Ortiz barn that is showing a 0 for 2 mark first off the claim going back five years. He is going to need to move forward off his last effort to be in the mix here but worth tossing in the mix if he goes off near his 8/1 ML.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7/5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,3,5
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,5,7

AQU Race 2 Md Sp Wt (12:52 ET)

ML FAIR
#1 Imaspeedyguy
6/1 4/1
#3 Alarmist
5/2 5/2
#2 Tall Tale Teller
2/1 3/1
#5 Moonlight Song
8/1 6/1

Analysis: #1 Imaspeedyguy caught a muddy surface last out that was kind to speed and made a mild late rally to finish fourth. The gelding has now made seven starts, five on grass and the other two over wet tracks. This will likely be his first go over a fast dirt surface. He gets a bit more ground here and horses coming from off the pace fared well on yesterday's card and he should get enough pace in front of him here.

#3 Alarmist exits the same race as our top pick, setting the early fractions and unable to hold off the winner late in a runner up finish. The gelding earned a career top in the effort and has now landed in the runner up spot in six of his ten career starts. It could be more of the same here, and our top pick is going to offer better value for the top spot.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4/1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,5
TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,5,7

AQU Race 3 The Holly Springs S. (1:00 ET)

ML FAIR
#2 Saltamontes
8/5 7/5
#5 Nicole's Miss El
4/1 7/2
#3 Big Brownie
9/5 5/2
#1 Guyana Princess
12/1 8/1

Analysis: #2 Saltamontes cut back from a route and took the field gate to wire last out against open Alw-2 optional claimers. She is back with state breds here and she does have one state bred stake win on her resume along with three second place finishes. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and if she gets loose she will be tough to catch.

#5 Nicole's Miss El makes her first start since a runner up finish in the Tate behind repeat winner Red's Round table, who came back to beat optional claimers at Laurel Park in her next start on Jan. 21. She is a three time winner versus state breds and popped a couple of bullet works since her last outing. The barn has been chilly at the meeting but looks most likely to break up the chalky exacta.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7/5 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,3,5
TRI: no play


AQU Race 4 Clm $10,000 (1:50 ET)

ML FAIR
#7 Prince Dubai
10/1 6/1
#4 Marquet Rebel
3/1 3/1
#1 Dubai Gold / #1a Hill Crossing
7/5 5/2
#2 Merlin Bay
6/1 9/2

Analysis: #7 Prince Dubai was off a beat slow, came with a five wide rally and could not make up enough ground in the stretch in a fifth place finish behind a loose on the lead gate to wire winner over a inside speed favoring racing strip. The gelding does not win very often, but three of his four wins have come on the inner track including three back against restricted $7.5K foes. If he sees some pace he could be factor late here at a decent price for the Gyarmati barn that is having a good meeting including popping with a 51/1 longshot last month.

#4 Marquet Rebel was off poorly and never a threat last out in a fifth place finish against open $7.5K foes and was claimed out of the race by the Serey barn that is showing a 0 for 6 mark first off the claim but is a very capable barn. Two back off a two month break he had a clear lead heading for home but could not hold off the winner in a runner up finish behind #1 Dubai Gold. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and is capable with his best.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 4,7 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

AQU Race 5 OClm $75,000N1X (2:19 ET)

ML FAIR
#7 Holiday Promise
5/1 5/2
#6 Two Seventeen
8/5 5/2
#5 Maybe's Master
4/1 4/1
#1 Summer Sunset
10/1 8/1

Analysis: #7 Holiday Promise made a good late rally while wide to finish in the runner up spot in his first start at this condition, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The fourth and fifth place finisher in that race both came back to beat optional claimers in their next starts. He shipped to Maryland two back to pack up his diploma and the effort was flattered when the runner up Respectful Ed came back to graduate in his next outing at laurel park on Dec. 13. He is one of two in here sent out by Pletcher who has not used Alvarado much, and the 6/1 ML looks more than fair.

#6 Two Seventeen came off a two month layoff to break his maiden in his second career start and earned the top last out speed fig in the effort. He was making his first start for the Levine barn. He has some pedigree, a half to five winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Sal the Barber ($253K).

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7

AQU Race 6 Clm $30,000B (2:48 ET)

ML FAIR
#3 Milwaukee Mixer
8/1 5/1
#8 August Osage
12/1 6/1
#9 Sensational Slam
5/2 3/1
#1 Biddy
7/2 4/1

Analysis: #3 Milwaukee Mixer made a mild late rally to finish third last out in his local debut coming against open $25K claimers. The gelding has done his best work on the fake stuff and turf, but may be worth another look here. He drops into a restricted spot here facing non winners of two in life or straight four year olds. He showed speed in his previous starts and looks as if he will be more of an early threat in this spot.

#8 August Orage raced evenly in a fifth place finish last out against $25K non winners of two in his first start off a 3 1/2 month break. He was claimed out of the race by the Jacobson barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim and has been very busy hanging around the claim box in recent months. The colt figures to be tighter for his second start off the shelf.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5/1 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 1,3,8,9
TRI: 3,8 / 1,3,8,9 / 1,3,4,8,9

AQU Race 7 OClm $50,000N2X (3:17 ET)

ML FAIR
#3 De Price
6/1 4/1
#5 Crossbow
2/1 2/1
#1 Starforaday / #1a Mineswept
3/1 7/2
#7 Sam Sparkle
6/1 5/1

Analysis: #3 De Price caught a muddy speed favoring racing strip last out and made up some ground to finish in the runner up spot last out behind multiple stakes winner This Ones for Phil. The five year old beat $50K claimers two back at Churchill Downs, earning a career top in that effort. He can be a player here if he runs back to his effort two back and the price should be decent enough in this spot.

#5 Crossbow did not handle his first trip around two turns, setting the early fractions and tiring to finish seventh. Two back at today's six furlong distance he was a game second in the Hunch Stakes, beaten a half length by our fourth choice in here. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and the cut back to six panels should suit him.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4/1 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 3,5 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,2,3,5,7

AQU Race 8 Md Sp Wt (3:46 ET)

ML FAIR
#1 Captains Cat
9/5 8/5
#7 Riboletti
5/2 5/2
#3 Voter
6/1 5/1
#2 Acadian Blues
5/1 5/1

Analysis: #1 Captains Cat is coming off a good runner up finish last out in his third career start. The colt that beat him was Falaah, who came back to a very impressive looking Alw-1 win on yesterday's card here. Two back our top pick ran into another repeat winner, Simbammangu coming back to beat Alw-1 foes at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 31. The gelding has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground and the Chad Brown barn is 22% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

#7 Riboletti was second in both of his starts, last out as the 1/9 chalk, coming up 2 1/2 lengths shy of the top spot. The filly returns here for the McLaughlin barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. He certainly has enough pedigree to handle two turns. he is by Distorted Humor out of the stakes winner Riboletta ($1.5 million) who did her best work going long.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 8/5 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,7,8

AQU Race 9 Md $15,000 (4:15 ET)

ML FAIR
#1 Sheeds Paisley
5/2 2/1
#4 Tropical Jetset
2/1 5/2
#8 Mojito Mint
3/1 7/2
#5 A New York Phillie
6/1 5/1

Analysis: #1 Sheeds Paisley gets one more shot here as we backed this gal a couple of times and she came up short in fourth place finishes in her last two starts, She does seem to be on the improve and she looks as if she is going to appreciate the added ground here. Alvarado sticks with the main knock being the price is going to be even shorter today, but he catches a pretty weak group here.

#4 Tropical Jetset is coming off a third place finish last out with the addition of blinkers, her 21st try at breaking his maiden. She has nine runner up finishes in his career and could be looking at another one here in this spot.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,8
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,3,4,5,8


Good Luck today!
Please check all program numbers and post times before wagering.
Prices listed are the morning line odds followed by fair odds.

Race Ratings:
$$$$: The strongest play of the day. Some days there will not be a race at this rating, but when there is, it's straight to the betting window.
$$$: These races are the best wagering opportunities of the day. I either have a strong opinion on my top pick or feel this is a great race for value in the exotics.
$$: These races are usually races where I do not have a strong opinion, or feel my top pick may end up going off at a short price. A moderate investment only.
$: These races are in most cases a pass. Usually races with short fields offering little value or just inscrutable. Small investment or pass.

I post win, exacta, and trifecta betting recommendations. For trifecta players, as a general rule I do not play trifectas or superfectas in fields of seven or less. When playing trifectas, I usually will key top 2 over top 3 over 4 or 5 horses. On occasion I will key top pick over second and third choices over the field, and top pick over field over second and third choices if the race looks chaotic. In the early and late double, I usually use my top pair in each race. Pick 3's and Pick 4's will offer good value as long as the ML favorite is not my top pick in two of the races.