Belmont card

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@ND 31...3rd #3...5th #3...7th #12...9th #9...10th #4...w2w

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FIRST RACE LISTED SHOULD BE 2nd #1...w2w

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WON 2nd $10.00 $6.70 $6.90...RAN 3rd IN 5th $3.10...RAN 2nd IN 7th $13.00 $10.20...SCRATCHED IN 9th...w2w

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SUNDAY...RACE 6 FRAZZLE...w2w

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RAN OUT...w2w

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WEDNESDAY 9/15/10 3rd eagle strike...8th CRAFTY GEM...w2w

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SCRATCHED IN 3rd...RAN OUT IN 8th...w2w

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THURSDAY...1st FLASK...2nd A GIRL NAMED MARIA...7th HIGH CRY...8th HONORABLE TRUTH...9th FIVE TOWNS...w2w

[wire2wire]

RAN 2nd IN 1st $2.60 $2.30...SCRATCHED IN 2nd & 8th...w2w

[Joeaveragefan]

Belmont Park
Friday September 17
By Michael Dempsey


Weather: AM showers, partly cloudy in the afternoon, high of 75. Winds NNW at 11 mph. Chance of precip. 30%.


BEL Race 1 The Fifth Marine (1:00 ET)
ML
FAIR
#3 Nordic Truce
5/2 9/5
#7 Asphalt
6/1 9/2
#6 Radiohead
3/1 7/2
#4 Raging Wit
8/1 6/1
Analysis: #3 Nordic Truce came off a 2 1/2 month break with a fourth place finish in the Hall of Fame (G2). The colt was a bit rank early, was under a good hold under a patient ride by Leparoux and did not have enough punch late, coming up 1 3/4 lengths shy of the top spot. The guy won a stake in his first trip against winners, taking the Dania Beach at Gulfstream Park back in January, the followed that win up with a win in the Transylvania (G3) and a tough neck loss in the Hill Prince (G3). Clement finds a good spot here, although the price is going to be on the light side.
#7 Asphalt has a couple of in the money finishes in graded company and now comes back off a two month freshening after failing to fire his best last out in the American Derby (G2) at Arlington Park in his most recent start. The cut back in distance here should suit, and if our top pick takes too much attention on the tote, this guy near his 6/1 ML is a good option.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,4,6,7
TRI: 3,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 3,4,6,7,8




BEL Race 2 Md $16,000 (1:31 ET)
ML
FAIR
#2 Erin Erin
7/2 5/2
#6 Curlina
3/1 3/1
#8 Cranberry Queen
5/1 9/2
#7 Wind in My Sails
6/1 6/1
Analysis: #2 Erin Erin was not a threat last out in a seventh place finish for a $25K tag on the turf off a two month break. Three runners have come out of that race to run back and they all won. She now drops into a softer spot here tagged for $16K and tries the main track for the first time in her career.
#6 Curlina also goes turf to dirt with a class drop. She was coming back off a three month layoff last out when checking in sixth going 5 1/2 furlongs. She was beaten double digit lengths in both of her dirt starts, but those came against tougher in Florida. Her pedigree suggest the main track is the way to go and this is a softer spot.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 2,6,7,8
TRI: 2,6 / 2,6,7,8 / 2,4,6,7,8





BEL Race 3 The Salute Me Sir (2:03 ET)
ML
FAIR
#5 Giant Moon
7/5 7/5
#1 Manteca
6/5 8/5
#3 Mine Over Matter
10/1 8/1
#4 Naughty New Yorker
6/1 8/1
Analysis: #5 Giant Moon makes his first start since a game win in the Evan Shipman at the Spa. This guy has a couple of stakes wins against open company including a win in a Grade 3 in April of '09. The five year old has won 3 of 5 over the Belmont Park main track and this looks like a good spot.
#1 Manteca was third last out in the Majestic Light at Monmouth Park and returns to the state bred ranks here. The Pletcher gelding seems to fire every time out, landing in the money in 13 of his 14 career starts and is 2 for 2 over the surface here. His last three figs fit here and he figures to complete a puny exacta.

Race Rating: $
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7/5 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5
TRI: no play





BEL Race 4 Clm $20,000N1Y (2:35 ET)
ML
FAIR
#4 The Zipster
5/1 7/2
#1 Belo Sorte
2/1 5/2
#5 Who's the Cowboy
6/1 9/2
#7 No Questions
10/1 8/1
Analysis: #4 The Zipster prompted the early pace and did not have enough punch late in a third place finish against $16K non winners of a race in six months. Two back off a year layoff the gelding was a game second, beaten just a head for the top spot. The gelding makes his third start off the bench and the cut back to six furlongs should suit.
#1 Belo Sorte caught a sloppy track at the Spa last out against open $30K claimers, racing evenly in a fourth place finish. Three back the colt beat Alw-1 foes at Churchill Downs earning a fig good enough to handle this group. The colt owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks well spotted here dropping in price and facing restricted company.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,24,5,7





BEL Race 5 Clm $25,000N2L (3:07 ET)
ML
FAIR
#4 Glory in Motion
2/1 2/1
#9 Goodgollymissdolly
12/1 8/1
#2 Song for Pupcake
5/2 3/1
#12 Long Gone
10/1 8/1
Analysis: #4 Glory in Motion came up the inside with a mild late rally to finish fourth last out against state breed Alw-1 foes in her first start off a 3 1/2 month break. She is in for a tag here for the Benzel barn that was hot toward the end of the Spa meeting. The filly has two sibs that are winners, Soave ($142K) and Love Co ($122K).
#9 Goodgollymissdolly was a game second two back at this level, beaten just a head for the top spot. The winner of that race was Playa Bonita, who beat $25K non winners of three in her next start on Aug. 26. Our second choice may have bounced off that runner up finish or perhaps did not like the footing. There are rains in the forecast overnight so there could be some give in the ground here. There are a couple in here stretching out from sprints, but if this gal can get an easy lead she may stick around at a price.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 2,4,9,12
TRI: 4,9 / 2,4,9,12 / 2,4,6,9,12





BEL Race 6 Clm $25,000B (3:39 ET)
ML
FAIR
#8 Nergal
4/1 3/1
#5 Church Service
9/2 4/1
#4 Unaccountable
3/1 7/2
#9 Parc des Princes
7/2 9/2
Analysis: #8 Nergal ships in from Del Park for the Walder barn off a neck loss against $20K non winners of two since April 30. The sharp barn has not shipped much to NY recently, just 1 for 5 in the last six months. The gelding has finished out of the money in three trips over the Belmont Park turf, but this guy looks like he fits well in this spot.
#5 Church Service made a good late run to finish third last out against open $25K claimers, beaten a length for the top spot. The five time turf winner drops into a softer spot here facing non winners of two races over the weeds since March 15.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 4,5,8,9
TRI: 5,8 / 4,5,8,9 / 4,5,6,8,9





BEL Race 7 OClm $35,000N1X (4:11 ET)
ML
FAIR
#6 Mad for Smarty
12/1 6/1
#1 Hot Money
5/1 4/1
#13 I've Got Speed
6/1 9/2
#7 Ever a Friend
4/1 9/2
Analysis: #6 Mad for Smarty tries turf for the first time here after ailing to threaten last out going nine furlongs on the main track at the Spa. The colt adds blinkers and has a couple of sibs that have won on grass, and two of his sibs are stakes winners on the main track, top earner Medalist ($421K). The hall of fame barn was on fire at the spring meeting here and then went silent at the Spa. I'm thinking this guy may take to turf and the price should be right.
#1 Hot Money beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers and usually a runner exiting that level and entered against open Alw-1 foes can get over bet. I do like his effort two back over yielding footing and if we are on the grass there likely will be some give to the ground today. He did step out of the state bred ranks to beat $50K starter allowance foes three back.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,6,7,13
TRI: 1,6 / 1,6,7,13 / 1,6,7,8,11,13





BEL Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (4:43 ET)
ML
FAIR
#2 Five Grand Girl
5/2 9/5
#1 Catch a Thief
4/1 3/1
#4 Indian Burn
6/1 9/2
#3 Kiss Melissa
3/1 4/1
Analysis: #2 Five Grand Girl acted up a bit in the gate, then set the early fractions before getting tired late, finishing third in her first try at today's level, beaten a head for the runner up spot by our second choice. She regressed off a career top two back betting Alw-1 foes in a sharp effort at Monmouth Park. She owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in early pace numbers. Ramon picks up the call for Dutrow and the duo hit at a 35% clip. She looks tough in this spot.
#1 Catch a Thief earned a solid fig in her debut at Gulfstream Park back in April, then came right back to beat Alw-1 foes at Monmouth Park in her first try against winners. Two tries at today's level has seen her come up short, but she looks as if she fits here. She sports four quick works since her last outing.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4
TRI: no play





BEL Race 9 Md Sp Wt (5:15 ET)
ML
FAIR
#6 Heck
9/2 7/2
#4 Nice and Naughty
8/1 9/2
#5 Mississippi Too
3/1 7/2
#3 Strategic Sue
10/1 8/1
Analysis: #6 Heck is one of two in here sent out by the Weaver barn and hopefully is the higher price of the duo. The filly is coming off a fourth place finish where she was beaten 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot. She broke awkwardly, had to steady a couple of times in traffic , was caught in behind a wall of runners and made up some ground late when finally clear. She has one sib to race, Tailebytherail ($109K), a three time winner on turf.
#4 Nice and Naughty caught some traffic in the stretch in a sixth place finish, exiting the same race as our top pick. She was making her first start off a 11 month layoff. She is a half to a pair of stakes winners, top earner the NY bred Naughty New Yorker ($1.08 million), who was 0 for 2 on turf.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 3,4,5,6
TRI: 4,6 / 3,4,5,6 / 3,4,5,6,7





Good Luck today!
Please check all program numbers and post times before wagering.
Prices listed are the morning line odds followed by fair odds.

Race Ratings:
$$$$: The strongest play of the day. Many days there will not be a race at this rating, but when there is, it's straight to the betting window.
$$$: These races are the best wagering opportunities of the day. I either have a strong opinion on my top pick or feel this is a great race for value in the exotics.
$$: These races are usually races where I do not have a strong opinion, or feel my top pick may end up going off at a short price. A moderate investment only.
$: These races are in most cases a pass. Usually races with short fields offering little value or just inscrutable. Small investment or pass.

I post win, exacta, and trifecta betting recommendations. For trifecta players, as a general rule I do not play trifectas or superfectas in fields of seven or less. When playing trifectas, I usually will key top 2 over top 3 over 4 or 5 horses. On occasion I will key top pick over second and third choices over the field, and top pick over field over second and third choices if the race looks chaotic. In the early and late double, I usually use my top pair in each race. Pick 3's and Pick 4's will offer good value as long as the ML favorite is not my top pick in two of the races.

[wire2wire]

SATURDAY 9/17/10...2nd #7...3rd #3...5th #2...6th #6...7th #2...w2w

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Saturday date 9/18/10

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SCRATCHED IN 3rd & 5th...w2w

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SUNDAY 9/19/10...2nd #3...4th #5...6th #2...7th #1...9th #3...w2w

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RAN 3rd IN 4th $4.20...SCRATCHED IN 6th...w2w