Belmont Stakes analysis...

[Wabash Wonders]

Here are my thoughts for the Belmont Stakes...


1. Chocolate Candy 10-1...Ran a good 5th in the Derby in his first try over a conventional dirt track. His previous 9 races were all over the Polytrack. Ran 2nd behind Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby prior to the Derby and now makes his 3rd start off a layoff. Should get a good stalking trip from the rail behind Charitable Man and Miner's Escape. Definitely use underneath in exotics and could pull the upset...

2. Dunkirk 4-1...Stumbled at the start in the Derby and never got on track over the sloppy track. Throw that race out and this horse looks the one to beat. Ran huge in the Florida Derby only to lose to Quality Road in posting a 108 beyer which is tops in this field. Shows 3 good works since the Derby over the Belmont track and should be ready to fire. Definitely the one to beat...

3. Mr. Hot Stuff 15-1...ran 15th in Derby in first try over dirt track. All previous races have been over the Polytrack. I don't give this one much chance at all...

4. Summer Bird 12-1...ran 6th in Derby despite being 3 and 4 wide most of race and then 7 wide into stretch. Like Mine That Bird, was sired by Birdstone so breed for the mile and half distance. Adds blinkers which should put him closer to the pace and be in good position to make a run in the stretch. My longshot play to win the race....

5. Luv Gov 20-1...Broke his maiden on Derby day at Churchill and then ran 8th in Preakness. Sired by Ten Most Wanted who ran 2nd in Belmont behind Empire Maker in 2003, and won the Travers later that year. Another that has no chance in my book...

6. Charitable Man 3-1...Probable pacesetter comming off strong performance 4 weeks ago in Peter Pan. 3 for 3 on dirt tracks and 2 for 2 over the Belmont surface. If allowed to run free on the lead with no pressure, he could go gate to wire, but I don't see that happening. Will get pace pressure from Miner's Escape and weaken in the stretch. Use underneath in exoctics but don't see this one winning...

7. Mine That Bird 2-1...Not much to say that hasn't already been said about this horse. Pace won't be as fast as what he would like, but I think it will be good enough to set up his late closing kick. Definitely use on top and underneath in all exoctics...

8. Flying Private 12-1...Ran his best race ever in Preakness finishing 4th only 4 lengths behind winner. Posted 102 beyer in that race. Only horse besides Mine That Bird to run all 3 triple crown races. I think the grueling test catches up with him and he "bounces" off that last big effort. Will finish in bottom 3...

9. Miner's Escape 15-1...One of 2 Nick Zito entries and comes off his best race winning the Federico Tesio at Pimlico on Derby day. Look for this one to pressure Charitable Man from the start. Probably won't last as long as Charitable Man, but should soften him up for the closers. No play on this one...

10. Brave Victory 15-1...The other Zito entry and this one is a live one! Has 3 races over the Belmont track and 1 win. His last race was a 3rd place finish behind Charitable Man in the Peter Pan, where he made up 5 lengths on CM over the last 3 furlongs. 2 solid works since that race makes this one a live longshot. My other longshot play...


I will play win bets on Summer Bird and Brave Victory, and also key Dunkirk and Mine That Bird on top in trifectas with Chocolate Candy, Charitable Man, Summer Bird and Brave Victory.


Also playing a $1 pick 4 starting in race 8...

1,2/8/1,5,9/2,4,7,10 costing $24



Good luck to all in the Belmont Stakes

[Chris46139]

You don't like Hull or Munnings in the 7th? Loved Hull myself I know unproven but think he has a chance

[iggs111]

Originally Posted by Chris46139

You don't like Hull or Munnings in the 7th? Loved Hull myself I know unproven but think he has a chance

YOU LIAR!!! I thought it was past your bedtime!?!?!?!

[Chris46139]

Originally Posted by iggs111

YOU LIAR!!! I thought it was past your bedtime!?!?!?!

LMAO going right now was code for watching a movie with my wife I got called out.

Oh and Wabash I meant the 8th in my post

[Wabash Wonders]

Originally Posted by Chris46139

You don't like Hull or Munnings in the 7th? Loved Hull myself I know unproven but think he has a chance

I actually thought about singling the 1/1A entry(Regal Ransom,Everyday Heroes). I only added #2 This Ones for Phil because his 2 best races have been when he has cut back from a mile to a sprint like he does in this race. I agree Hull and Munnings are tough contenders but I was trying to keep the price of ticket down. I think if I get by this leg I have a winner...

[Chris46139]

I'm most worried about the 10th so many good horses and really have to wait until tomorrow to cap to see if they keep it on the turf

[Midnight Rider]

Thanks for the write-up. GL today.

[goterps74]

[Bisket]

1. Chocolate Candy 10-1...Ran a good 5th in the Derby in his first try over a conventional dirt track. His previous 9 races were all over the Polytrack. Ran 2nd behind Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby prior to the Derby and now makes his 3rd start off a layoff. Should get a good stalking trip from the rail behind Charitable Man and Miner's Escape. Definitely use underneath in exotics and could pull the upset...

he's also been in new york for a month training and resting. If the derby had been 1 1/2 miles he would have finished 2nd at least

[goterps74]

Originally Posted by Bisket23

he's also been in new york for a month training and resting. If the derby had been 1 1/2 miles he would have finished 2nd at least

who u betting?

[Bisket]

candy wps

[goterps74]

Originally Posted by Bisket23

candy wps

phuck it... i will tag along

GL

[Wabash Wonders]

Originally Posted by Wabash Wonders

Here are my thoughts for the Belmont Stakes...


1. Chocolate Candy 10-1...Ran a good 5th in the Derby in his first try over a conventional dirt track. His previous 9 races were all over the Polytrack. Ran 2nd behind Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby prior to the Derby and now makes his 3rd start off a layoff. Should get a good stalking trip from the rail behind Charitable Man and Miner's Escape. Definitely use underneath in exotics and could pull the upset...

2. Dunkirk 4-1...Stumbled at the start in the Derby and never got on track over the sloppy track. Throw that race out and this horse looks the one to beat. Ran huge in the Florida Derby only to lose to Quality Road in posting a 108 beyer which is tops in this field. Shows 3 good works since the Derby over the Belmont track and should be ready to fire. Definitely the one to beat...

3. Mr. Hot Stuff 15-1...ran 15th in Derby in first try over dirt track. All previous races have been over the Polytrack. I don't give this one much chance at all...

4. Summer Bird 12-1...ran 6th in Derby despite being 3 and 4 wide most of race and then 7 wide into stretch. Like Mine That Bird, was sired by Birdstone so breed for the mile and half distance. Adds blinkers which should put him closer to the pace and be in good position to make a run in the stretch. My longshot play to win the race....

5. Luv Gov 20-1...Broke his maiden on Derby day at Churchill and then ran 8th in Preakness. Sired by Ten Most Wanted who ran 2nd in Belmont behind Empire Maker in 2003, and won the Travers later that year. Another that has no chance in my book...

6. Charitable Man 3-1...Probable pacesetter comming off strong performance 4 weeks ago in Peter Pan. 3 for 3 on dirt tracks and 2 for 2 over the Belmont surface. If allowed to run free on the lead with no pressure, he could go gate to wire, but I don't see that happening. Will get pace pressure from Miner's Escape and weaken in the stretch. Use underneath in exoctics but don't see this one winning...

7. Mine That Bird 2-1...Not much to say that hasn't already been said about this horse. Pace won't be as fast as what he would like, but I think it will be good enough to set up his late closing kick. Definitely use on top and underneath in all exoctics...

8. Flying Private 12-1...Ran his best race ever in Preakness finishing 4th only 4 lengths behind winner. Posted 102 beyer in that race. Only horse besides Mine That Bird to run all 3 triple crown races. I think the grueling test catches up with him and he "bounces" off that last big effort. Will finish in bottom 3...

9. Miner's Escape 15-1...One of 2 Nick Zito entries and comes off his best race winning the Federico Tesio at Pimlico on Derby day. Look for this one to pressure Charitable Man from the start. Probably won't last as long as Charitable Man, but should soften him up for the closers. No play on this one...

10. Brave Victory 15-1...The other Zito entry and this one is a live one! Has 3 races over the Belmont track and 1 win. His last race was a 3rd place finish behind Charitable Man in the Peter Pan, where he made up 5 lengths on CM over the last 3 furlongs. 2 solid works since that race makes this one a live longshot. My other longshot play...


I will play win bets on Summer Bird and Brave Victory, and also key Dunkirk and Mine That Bird on top in trifectas with Chocolate Candy, Charitable Man, Summer Bird and Brave Victory.


Also playing a $1 pick 4 starting in race 8...

1,2/8/1,5,9/2,4,7,10 costing $24



Good luck to all in the Belmont Stakes

4 Summer Bird 25.80 9.30 4.70
2 Dunkirk 5.40 3.60
7 Mine That Bird 2.60



$2 Exacta (4-2) Paid $121.00

$2 Trifecta (4-2-7) Paid $295.00

$2 Superfecta (4-2-7-6) Paid $852.00

[Wabash Wonders]

Originally Posted by goterps74

phuck it... i will tag along

GL

Just goes to show, if you are going to tag along, always tag along with the guy who started the thread... lol, just messing with you, hope you had a little on Summer Bird also...

[goterps74]

Originally Posted by Wabash Wonders

Just goes to show, if you are going to tag along, always tag along with the guy who started the thread... lol, just messing with you, hope you had a little on Summer Bird also...

I threw a couple of bucks (see below) on it along with some other ones u recommended... Horse racing and college bb is your forte


Wager Type: RACEBOOK
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: $2.00 / $ (USD) Accepted 6/6/2009 6:11 PM - EST
Amount Paid: 25.80

Desc: Belmont Park race #11 $2 W 4 (#20258982)




Thanks