The best betting race of the year-The Derby

[The Tin Man]

I know it's long but this race is worth it.

Let me start by saying that if Bellamy Road runs back to the number in his last race, I don’t think anybody will be near him. But, I’ve seen over the years when a horse gets away from the pack like he did last time out they seem to run crazy high numbers. He will probably be the favorite. All that being said, I believe he can be beat.

Like any bet you try to put the odds in your favor. For me, several statistics for the Derby are important:
1) Only one horse with less than 3 prep races has won since 1948.
2) No horse has won with fewer than 5 career starts since 1918.
3) No horse has won without racing as a 2yo since 1882.
4) No horse has won that did not race within the last 4 weeks since 1955.
I really believe these 4 facts are very important in capping the Derby.

A few other stats that are relevant but not as important,
-Winner of last years breeders cup Juvenile has never won the Derby.
-Favorite almost never wins.
-It’s good to have 2 or more works on the track.
-Look for a horse whose speed rating numbers are on the rise, at least the last 3 or so.

Let’s take this right by the books with this system.
1) Less than 3 preps: #6 High Limit, #14 Wilko, #16 Bellamy Road, #18 Closing Argument.
2) Fewer than 5 starts: #6 High Limit, #7 Flower Alley, #9 Greeley’s Galaxy.
3) No 2yo race:#9 Greeley’s Galaxy.
4) Race last 4 weeks: #4 Noble Causeway, #11 High Fly.

So if you throw out these horses here’s what’s left:
#1 Sort It Out – Is in way over his head. I guess Baffert didn’t want to be left out of the party.
#2 Andromeda’s Hero – Seems to be coming around but couldn’t get it done in Grade 2’s. It’s not any easier here.
#3 Sun King – I would really like to know if he had any problem in the Blue Grass. My guess is the problem was who he raced against and their all back here.
#4 Noble Causeway – Did not race in the last 4 weeks. But does have progressively better numbers and 100 is not bad if he has one more step up?
#5 Coin Silver - Seems to really like slop and it bothers me because Pletcher has his “go to” rider on Bandini.
#6 High Limit – Less than 3 preps and fewer than 5 starts.
#7 Flower Alley – Fewer than 5 starts and only had 1 work on the track.
#8 Greater Good – Another one who looks like he’s in way over his head.
#9 Greeley’s Galaxy – Fewer than 5 starts. But he does have progressively better speed numbers and his last one is pretty good. Nice for exotics.
#10 Giacomo – Couldn’t beat others in here and never won but a maiden race.
#11 High Fly – No race the last 4 weeks. But he does have progressively better numbers the last 3, and 5 weeks is not that long of layoff. Florida Derby was a nice score and Bailey-Zito. Will defiantly use in exotics.
#12 Afleet Alex – This is my horse. He was sick for the Rebel. Came back strong in the Ark Derby. Throw out the Rebel and he is 6 for 8 with 2 very close seconds. Most all in stakes company. Loves to come from off the pace which is great in a race that looks on paper like it should have many contesting for an early pace. The only knock is the jock but he’s won with him before.
#13 Spanish Chestnut – Seems like Biancone feels the same way Baffert does.
#14 Wilko – Only 2 starts this year and won the Juvenile last year.
#15 Bandini – I really love his progressively better numbers and the Bluegass was a sweet win against 4 others back in here. He loves to stay close and that could be good if the pace slows down. I will probably use him as my savor bet.
#16 Bellamy Road – Only 2 starts this year. But like I said earlier if he runs back to that 120. Look out!
#17 Don’t Get Mad – I just don’t see a horse coming back to win a race of this caliber on 1 weeks rest.
#18 Closing Argument – Only 2 starts this year.
#19 Going Wild – I think I said this before….Lucas, like Biancone and Baffert, just doesn’t want to get left out of the party.
#20 Buzzard’s Bay – I like his last 3 progressively better numbers. If he has one more step up?......But I don’t like him not working on the track.

For me – Afleet Alex to win and Afleet Alex on top with Noble Causeway, Greeley’s Galaxy, High Fly, Bandini and just so I don’t get pissed I’ll use Bellamy Road. I’ll probably turn some of these exactas around depends on the odds.

Good Luck to all…..It should be a great race.