Breeders Cup...Saturday, Nov 4

[Wabash Wonders]

BC Juvenile Fillies

#10 Her Majesty 10-1

Lightly raced( 2 races) filly who beat the boys handily in her maiden win at a mile and then improved in her next race breaking from the 13 post and running 5 wide most of the way and still finished a closeup 3rd in the Grade 2 Alcibiad at Keeneland losing to Bel Air Beauty who is my second choice here. Today she adds lasix and puts blinkers on for the french connection( Biancone and Leparoux) and I expect her to get a nice stalking trip right behind what should be a quick pace up led by Dreaming of Anna.

selections: 10-6-3-1


BC Juvenile


# 9 Circular Quay 5-2


Ive watched this 2 year old colt run all summer and I just cant find a horse in this field capable of beating him. His 1st 2 wins came over this same Churchill downs track and his last race was a closeup 2nd place finish on the Polytrack at Keeneland. The key race might be his 3rd race at saratoga in Sept when he broke slowly in a field of 5 and was 13 lengths back at first call and still 10 lengths back at the halfway mark( 12 lengths and 8 lengths behind Scat Daddy at those points)and rallied to win going away by almost 5 lengths!


selections: 9-3-7-6



BC Filly and Mare Turf


#5 Honey Ryder 4-1


I realize Ouija Board is the horse to beat in this race and deservedly so. However, I am going with the reliable Honey Ryder, who is a turf specialist at these marathon races. Of the 10 horses in this race, only 5 have run this distance before with 4 of them doing it a total of 6 times with 2 victories( Ouija Board and Germance) Honey Ryder has run 6 times at the distance winning 5 of them. She has also run twice at a mile and a half and won both of them also. Ill take a chance on her in a mild upset...


selections: 5-2-4-7


BC Sprint


#14 Kelly's Landing 20-1

Speed, Speed and more Speed! Plenty of it in this race as there will be a mad dash for the lead as everyone tries to catch Bordonaro comming out of the gate. What does all that speed mean? A perfect setup for a closer and I believe thats what will happen in todays Sprint. My choice is the 5 year old veteran Kelly's Landing who loves the Churchill track( 2 wins and 2 seconds from 5 starts). He holds the 6 furlong track record at 1:07.2 Breaking from the outside post will allow him to settle right in behind all that speed and make his run at the end. Another intriguing thing about Kelly's Landing is that in his 17 career starts, only 3 times has he gone off at double digit odds( 11-1 once and 12-1 twice) and he won all 3 races. This is my longshot play of the day...


selections: 14-4-11-6


BC Mile


#14 Aussie Rules 10-1


European shipper who has one race over the Keeneland turf track since shipping over looks like the real deal. He likes to sit just off the pace so the outside post shouldnt be a problem. Should be enough speed up front for him to run at. Wide Open race here...


selections: 14-12-6-3


BC Distaff


#2 Pine Island 5-1


I see this race as being a 3 horse race between Pine Island, Fleet Indian, and Asi Siempre. Asi Siempre ran for the first time on a surface other than turf last time out when she ran over the Polytrack at keeneland and won by more than 2 lengths. Whether she can carry that form over to the regular dirt surface remains to be seen, but I like her chances. Fleet Indian is the obvious choice having won 8 straight, but she is due to lose. That leaves Pine Island who is a lightly raced 3 year old and still improving. In 6 races her beyer figures have gone up with each race(69,81,88,97,101,102) This only her second try against older horses( she won an allowance race against older in her second race) but has been well tested with 4 grade 1 starts since then winning 2 and placing 2nd in the other 2. A solid choice here...


selections: 2-7-12-14


BC Turf


#7 Hurricane Run 3-1

Another turf race and another European horse to the winners circle. Hurricane Run has been dominant on the turf in Europe posting timeform ratings in the high 120's and low 130s range. He has 4 wins from 7 starts at the mile and a half distance and will probably be up close if not on the lead throughout. I look for he and English Channel to battle it out down the stretch...

selections: 7-10-11-6


BC Classic


#3 Bernardini 1-1


What can I say...If I have to pick a winner for this race, Bernardini has to be the choice. Will I bet him at even money? No way. I will put him on top in exoctic plays and possibly single him in a pick 3 or pick 4, but there is absolutely no value in a win bet on him. But I still think he wins this race. After bernardini, it gets a lot more complicated. I know everyone on the west coast loves Lava Man. Welcome to Kentucky Lava Man and go to the rear of the class. Just my opinion, but I dont see him stacking up against this field. I do like Invasor, but not being able to get in a prep race becasue of a fever will hurt his chances I think. The one I really think has a chance at a big number is Lawyer Ron. After starting out the year in great form and then getting a terrible trip in the Derby finishing 12th, he was put on the shelf for a few months( 5 to be exact). He has come back since then to run 2 big races( 103 and 105 beyer figures) winning once and finishing a close 2nd in his last race. Since then he has joined the Todd Pletcher barn and gets the riding services of Pat Valenzuela today. If he can get him to rate behind the speed , look out for Lawyer Ron today. I think he will run a big race but still might not be good enough to beat Bernardini. Others to include in your exotics are David Junior and Premium Tap.


selections: 3-5-11-7


Good luck to all today at the races...

[tp123]

Great writeup, youve done your homework. good luck today

[WildKat]

Good Luck Wabash!!

[cheezer]

Thanks a lot, Wabash, and best of luck today.

[Ron Mexico]

Pine Island....... RIP

[hungjury]

Originally Posted by Ron Mexico

Pine Island....... RIP

Yeah, thats so messed up. I thought they didn't do that anymore

[Raymatsu]

What can they do? Least this way the horse does not have to suffer!

[dollarbills]

boring breeders cup IMO

[Wabash Wonders]

Originally Posted by dollarbills

boring breeders cup IMO

BORING?...About the only response I can say to that is, either you lost a lot of money, or you dont really appreciate horse racing. I thought the telecast was excellent with some great stories especially the ones about Lava Mans owners and about trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Only 2 favorites won with only 4 finishing in the money. 5 winners went off at double digit odds(15-1,15-1,24-1,13-1,10-1). The average winning payout was $24.62! To me the highlight of the show was the overhead shot of the Juvenile race showing Street sense and Circular Quay as they ran together and broke off with SS going inside and Circular Quay going outside and getting beat 10 lengths. What a ride by Calvin Borel. It was his only ride of the day and it was by far the best. If 8 favorites had, then that would have been boring. But to me it was a great show. Id like to know what some others think...

[ryhenry09]

Originally Posted by Wabash Wonders

BORING?...About the only response I can say to that is, either you lost a lot of money, or you dont really appreciate horse racing. I thought the telecast was excellent with some great stories especially the ones about Lava Mans owners and about trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Only 2 favorites won with only 4 finishing in the money. 5 winners went off at double digit odds(15-1,15-1,24-1,13-1,10-1). The average winning payout was $24.62! To me the highlight of the show was the overhead shot of the Juvenile race showing Street sense and Circular Quay as they ran together and broke off with SS going inside and Circular Quay going outside and getting beat 10 lengths. What a ride by Calvin Borel. It was his only ride of the day and it was by far the best. If 8 favorites had, then that would have been boring. But to me it was a great show. Id like to know what some others think...

It was somewhat exciting.. I thought the coverage was great! Very tough day to cap when those big horses hit. I hit 2 Exactas, just missed a couple of Tri's.

[hungjury]

Originally Posted by Raymatsu

What can they do? Least this way the horse does not have to suffer!

Thats what they tell you. They kill them because they know they'll never be the same and they don't want to spend all the money on medical bills. They don't have to kill them.

They use to do that with greyhounds but found that some dogs are faster after they break their leg. I know horses aren't the same but they can at least sell the horse to someone who would care for it.

[tw burke]

its allways exciting