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Old 02-17-2017, 08:20 AM
Joeaveragefan Joeaveragefan is offline
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Complete Friday Gulfstream Park Card

Gulfstream Park
Friday February 17
By Michael Dempsey


Weather: Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 78F. Winds ENE at 10 to 15 mph.

GP Race 1 Clm $16,000N3L (12:35 ET)

#2 Miss Steffi 10-1
#1 Luna Lunita 8-1
#7 Lookin for Money 5-2
#3 Starship Carnegie 8-1

Analysis: Miss Steffi set the early fractions and weakened in the stretch in a fifth place finish against $6,250 non-winners of three on the main track going a mile. She was claimed out of the race by the Sano barn that is 19% winners first off the claim. This gal makes her first start on turf and while her pedigree leans more toward dirt she has handled poly, winning back to back at Woodbine. She has some early speed and if she takes to the new surface she could score here at a generous price.

Luna Lunita dueled for the early lead and opened up a clear led heading for home, holding on to beat $12,500 non-winners of two. She handled turf, beaten just a neck two back at GP West against $8,000 non-winners of two. She comes here in sharp and is also going to be a decent price catching a weak group here.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,5,7


GP Race 2 Clm $12,500N2L (1:04 ET)

#4 Land Ho 5-2
#6 Stillburnin 2-1
#5 Leonides Da Roma 4-1
#2 Hy Dandy 3-1

Analysis: Land Ho tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a fifth place finish against $16,000 non-winners of two going 7 1/2 on turf. The runner up and fourth place finisher exited that race to win next out. The gelding drops in for a $12,500 tag while trying dirt for the first time in his career. His maiden win came over poly. He only has two published works over the main track here and they both were on the quick side.

Stillburnin also goes turf to dirt, last out checking in eighth against $16,000 non-winners of two going five furlongs. Three back in his last start on dirt he was a decent second at Monmouth Park against $35,000 non-winners of two. Juarez sticks for the Cibelli barn that is 16% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,5,6
TRI: no play


GP Race 3 Md $12,500 (1:33 ET)

#4 Scat Arb 10-1
#6 Miss Maserati 6-5
#5 Wild Dalton 4-1
#1 Cindy's Candy 5-1

Analysis: Scat Arb has been beaten by double digit lengths in six of her seven starts. She switches back to dirt last out and was not much of a threat after a wide trip. Juarez sticks for Cibelli while most of the other barns have very low win %. There is no speed or talent in here and this gal might have the best short of beating the chalk if she shows some speed like three back on turf.

Miss Maserati dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely to miss by just a neck last out in her second career start. Hard to get excited about backing her at even money or less off a 33 Beyer but not much else in here to get excited about. She is out of the stakes winner Glorious Smile ($116,225) who has dropped a pair of winners.
Race Rating: $
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,5,6
TRI: no play


GP Race 4 OClm $16,000SAL (2:02 ET)

#1 Chia Ghost 3-1
#5 Banzai Charge 9-2
#4 Mornin Brew 7-2
#7 Doctor J Dub 5-2

Analysis: Chia Ghost made a good five wide rally to won for this tag last out for his first win for the Procino barn that claimed this guy for $10,000 last November. The gelding has done his best running over the turf here. landing in the exacta in 9 of 20 trips. He caught a sharp pace to run at last out and should get an honest enough pace here.

Banzai Charge exits the same race as our top pic and he was off last and made up some ground late to finish fifth, beaten 5 1/4 lengths. The gelding was a game second two back earning a fig good enough to be in the mix in this spot. His last win came at GP West for a $8,000 tag back in November at this distance. He fits if he runs back to his effort two back.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7


GP Race 5 Clm $16,000 (2:32 ET)

#3 Gracious Plenty 3-1
#4 Dynamic Decision 5-2
#1 I.C. Lightning 6-1
#7 Starship Zorro 9-2

Analysis: Gracious Plenty pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fifth last out going nine furlongs for this tag. He was claimed again, this time going to the Nunn barn that is showing a 0 for 7 mark first off the claim. Two back while in the care of Medina, who claimed him off Pletcher, he won for this tag at this distance, his second win in four trips over the grass here. He draws a better post here and looks capable of bouncing back with a better effort.

Dynamic Decision stalked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish fourth last out at this level. He beat $16,000 non-winners of three in his previous start in a sharp effort. His last three speed figs fit well against this group and the De la cerda barn is having a solid meeting, winning at a 22% clip and have won 6 of 12 with Saez aboard.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 3,4 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7


GP Race 6 Clm $16,000 (3:02 ET)

#1 Latent Princess 6-1
#8 Sweet Butterfly 8-1
#2 Two Step Flor 5-2
#6 Keeker 7-2

Analysis: Latent Princess was not a threat last out with the jock dropping his stick facing Alw-1 optional claimers. Two back this gal beat $16,000 non-winners of three in a game effort. She drops into an easier spot here back in for a $16,000 tag and reunites with Saez. She figures to bounce back with a better effort here for the Sharp barn.

Sweet Butterfly stalked the early pace and finished up evenly in a fifth place finish last out for this tag in her second start off the bench. The Hills trainee has landed in the exacta in 5 of 8 trips over the turf here. Saez departs to ride our top pick while this gal picks up Lopez.* She may be tight and ready to go in her third start off the bench and the 8-1 morning line looks fair enough.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,2,6,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,2,6,8 / 1,3,4,6,8


GP Race 7 Md $35,000 (3:32 ET)

#4 Mr. Brix 8-1
#3 Wilshire Star 8-5
#6 Papa Pablo 6-1
#2 Hat in the Ring 7-2

Analysis: Mr. Brix makes his second start off a three month break here for the Plesa barn. This colt was a decent fourth in his turf debut at Monmouth Park last summer going a mile with the runner up Dream Shot a next out grad. He then checked in third in the slop, with the runner up a next out winner. He drops into an easier spot here tagged for $35,000. The $160,000 Ocala purchase is out of a War Chant mare, her first foal to race. Lopez stick and the 8-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Wilshire Star dueled for the early lead and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish last out for this tag in his first start off the claim by the Gonzales barn. Two back for $25,000 this guy was beaten just a neck in a game effort. He should be forwardly placed in a* race without much early pace while most of these do like to be fairly close to the lead. Castellano takes the call with the main knock being the likely light price.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 3,4 / 2,3,4,6 / 1,2,3,4,6


GP Race 8 Clm $16,000N2L (4:02 ET)

#8 Bistro Moncur 3-1
#6 Pira 5-2
#5 Run to Glory 4-1
#4 Make Big Money 8-1

Analysis: Bistro Moncur was outrun in the early going and came with a good late run to finish third last out for this tag, beaten 2 1/2 length for the top spot. Two back off the bench the Ward trainee checked in sixth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. The filly showed speed in her early races including agate to wire score on ply when she broke her maiden. She makes her third start off the bench here and expecting to see more early zip out of her here.

Pira was the beaten favorite last out in a fifth place finish exiting the same race as our top pick. Two back she came with a good late rally to miss by just a neck in a game effort. Lopez sticks and she fits here with her best. She has not run back to her maiden fig earned going 5 1/2 furlongs at the Spa last summer but looks like a good fit in this spot.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 4,5,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 4,5,6,8 / 3,4,5,6,8


GP Race 9 OClm $62,500N2X (4:32 ET)

#1 Yourdreamsormine 5-1
#3 Decorated Soldier 5-2
#9 Something Awesome 4-1
#4 Scarly Charly 3-1

Analysis: Yourdreamsormine stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth place finish last out in the Sunshine Millions Sprint, beaten two lengths for the top spot. The Wolfson trainee won at this condition three back over the main track here and is a seven time winner over the surface. He reunites with Lopez who was aboard for the win three back and the 5-1 looks generous.

Decorated Soldier makes his first start since last June where he tracked the early pace and faded to finish ninth in the Ohio Derby. He won the Northern Spur three back at Oaklawn Park in his first go against winners. Decent looking works at Palm Beach Downs for the Pletcher barn that is 37% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4,9
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,9 / 1,3,4,7,9


GP Race 10 OClm $16,000N1X (5:02 ET)

#1 Whipsnade 8-1
#10 Rontos Lily 5-1
#4 My Good Venezuela 4-1
#2 Stormin Charlotte 12-1

Analysis: Whipsnade chased the early pace and weakened late to finish third last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes in just her second career start on turf. In her turf debut she broke her maiden in gate to wire fashion here last April. The mare is out of a Distant View mare that has dropped two other turf winners. She makes her third start off the bench and is back in with state breds here. Worth a look here if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.

Rontos Lily exits the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf where she set the early fractions and weakened to finish sixth. She also is making her third start off the layoff here. She was 0 for 6 last year but did run well in a third place finish in the Honey Ryder before hitting the sidelines. She drops into an easier spot here.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,10 / 1,2,4,10
TRI: 1,10 / 1,2,4,10 / 1,2,3,4,10


*
Good Luck today!
Please check all program numbers and post times before wagering.


Race Ratings:
$$$$: The strongest play of the day. Some days there will not be a race at this rating, but when there is, it's straight to the betting window.
$$$: These races are the best wagering opportunities of the day. I either have a strong opinion on my top pick or feel this is a great race for value in the exotics.
$$: These races are usually races where I do not have a strong opinion, or feel my top pick may end up going off at a short price. A moderate investment only.
$: These races are in most cases a pass. Usually races with short fields offering little value or just inscrutable. Small investment or pass.


I post win, exacta, and trifecta betting recommendations. For trifecta players, as a general rule I do not play trifectas or superfectas in fields of six or less. When playing trifectas, I usually will key top 2 over top 3 over 4 or 5 horses. On occasion I will key top pick over second and third choices over the field, and top pick over field over second and third choices if the race looks chaotic. In the rolling doubles, I usually use my top pair in each race. Pick 3's and Pick 4's will offer good value as long as the ML favorite is not my top pick in two of the races.
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