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#1
01-23-2008, 10:25 AM
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Derby Prep Races...
This thread will be only about the derby prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. I will attempt to handicap each race every week and post my plays and some thoughts. As time goes on I will post my top 10 Derby horses as I see it each week. This week there is 1 prep race, The California Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Saturday.
Derby prep schedule... Jan 12 2008 San Rafael Stakes Santa Anita III 1 mile $150,000 1 El Gato Malo 6.80 4.40 2.60 5 Indian Sun 6.20 3.00 6 Massive Drama 2.20 Jan 12 2008 Lecomte Stakes Fair Grounds III 1 mile $100,000 5 Z Fortune 12.00 5.60 4.00 6 Blackberry Road 4.20 2.80 7 Mad Flatter 6.00 Jan 26 2008 California Derby Golden Gate Fields 1 1/16 miles $150,000 February Feb 2 2008 Swale Stakes Gulfstream Park II 6 1/2 furlongs $150,000 Feb 2 2008 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Santa Anita II 1 1/16 miles $200,000 Feb 9 2008 Turf Paradise Derby Turf Paradise 1 1/16 miles $100,000 Feb 9 2008 Risen Star Stakes Fair Grounds III 1 1/16 miles $300,000 Feb 10 2008 San Vicente Stakes Santa Anita II 7 furlongs $150,000 Feb 16 2008 Sam F. Davis Stakes Tampa Bay Downs 1 1/16 miles $200,000 Feb 16 2008 Borderland Derby Sunland Park 1 1/16 miles $100,000 Feb 18 2008 Southwest Stakes Oaklawn Park III 1 mile $250,000 Feb 24 2008 Fountain of Youth Stakes Gulfstream Park II 1 1/8 miles $350,000 Mar 1 2008 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes Turfway Park 1 1/16 miles $100,000 Mar 1 2008 Sham Stakes Santa Anita III 1 1/8 miles $200,000 March Mar 8 2008 Louisiana Derby Fair Grounds II 1 1/16 miles $600,000 Mar 8 2008 El Camino Real Derby Bay Meadows III 1 1/16 miles $200,000 Mar 8 2008 Gotham Stakes Aqueduct III 1 1/16 miles $200,000 Mar 15 2008 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita II 1 1/16 miles $250,000 Mar 15 2008 Rebel Stakes Oaklawn Park II 1 1/16 miles $300,000 Mar 15 2008 Tampa Bay Derby Tampa Bay Downs III 1 1/16 miles $300,000 Mar 16 2008 WinStar Derby Sunland Park 1 1/8 miles $600,000 Mar 22 2008 Rushaway Stakes Turfway Park 1 1/16 miles $100,000 Mar 22 2008 Lane's End Stakes Turfway Park II 1 1/8 miles $500,000 Mar 29 2008 Florida Derby Gulfstream Park I 1 1/8 miles $1,000,000 Mar 29 2008 U.A.E. Derby Nad al Sheba II 1 1/8 miles $2,000,000 April Apr 5 2008 Santa Anita Derby Santa Anita I 1 1/8 miles $750,000 Apr 5 2008 Wood Memorial Aqueduct I 1 1/8 miles $750,000 Apr 5 2008 Illinois Derby Hawthorne Race Course II 1 1/8 miles $500,000 Apr 12 2008 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Keeneland I 1 1/8 miles $750,000 Apr 12 2008 Arkansas Derby Oaklawn Park II 1 1/8 miles $1,000,000 Apr 12 2008 Holy Bull Stakes Gulfstream Park III 1 3/16 miles $150,000 Apr 19 2008 Federico Tesio Stakes Pimlico 1 1/8 miles $125,000 Apr 19 2008 Coolmore Lexington Stakes Keeneland II 1 1/16 miles $325,000 Apr 26 2008 Derby Trial Churchill Downs III 1 mile $100,000 Apr 26 2008 Withers Stakes Aqueduct III 1 mile $150,000 May May 3 2008 KENTUCKY DERBY 134 Churchill Downs I 1 1/4 miles $2,000,000 
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#2
01-24-2008, 05:41 PM
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right on mate...thnx for da info...u really help out!
__________________
57 Game Hitting Streak; Thor-Bred RESULTS ; Harness RESULTS ; 7th NFL season; King of Hill; Meadowlands results ; NFL Survivor ; NCAAFwkly ;
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#3
01-27-2008, 12:33 PM
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California Derby at Golden Gate Fields Race 8 Post time 6:50 est
The date in my original post was wrong, should be the 27th which is today. The favorite is #11 Yankee Bravo at 5-2 making his 3rd start, 2nd in the US with 2nd time Lasix. He won his maiden race overseas in 5F sprint no the turf after missing the break, then got up to track the leaders before drawing clear to win by 6 lengths. His first race in the US was also a win in a stakes race on the turf at a mile at Santa Anita. He was again was off slow at the break, but tracked the leaders and won by a half length. The second place finisher also came back to win. With a decent trip, this horse should be tough to beat. Others with a chance... #4 Victory Pete 7-2...broke maiden last time out with 84 beyer, highest figure in the field. Improving figures over last 3 races, should be part of pace. #5 Medjool 10-1...Lone maiden in field with 3 seconds and a third from 4 races under his belt. Beyers are improving and very competitive with this field posting 79 beyer last time out. Should be up close stalking the pace. Good longshot play. #7 Capture the Call 10-1... Broke maiden last time out in second start, both over this track. Should be part of the pace, but dont expect to get 10-1. #8 Tres Borrachos 8-1...Overmatched last time out in Grade 1 at Hollywood. Will be a factor if he runs back to maiden win 2 races back when he wired the field to win by half length over Medjool. Another who will be part of the pace. #10 Spinng Sound 12-1...Ireland bred adding blinkers today and going from turf to polytrack. Broke his maiden on polytrack 3 races back overseas. Good longshot play. good luck to all at the races today...
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#4
01-31-2008, 12:27 PM
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As expected, Yankee Bravo came from off the pace and easily won the California Derby on Saturday. There are 2 prep races this weekend and I will have my selections for those races posted Friday night.
Jan 12 2008 San Rafael Stakes Santa Anita III 1 mile $150,000 1 El Gato Malo 6.80 4.40 2.60 5 Indian Sun 6.20 3.00 6 Massive Drama 2.20 Jan 12 2008 Lecomte Stakes Fair Grounds III 1 mile $100,000 5 Z Fortune 12.00 5.60 4.00 6 Blackberry Road 4.20 2.80 7 Mad Flatter 6.00 Jan 26 2008 California Derby Golden Gate Fields 1 1/16 miles $150,000 11 Yankee Bravo 5.20 3.40 3.00 2 Cafe Tortoni 10.00 5.60 4 Victory Pete 5.40 February Feb 2 2008 Swale Stakes Gulfstream Park II 6 1/2 furlongs $150,000 Feb 2 2008 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Santa Anita II 1 1/16 miles $200,000 Feb 9 2008 Turf Paradise Derby Turf Paradise 1 1/16 miles $100,000 Feb 9 2008 Risen Star Stakes Fair Grounds III 1 1/16 miles $300,000 Feb 10 2008 San Vicente Stakes Santa Anita II 7 furlongs $150,000 Feb 16 2008 Sam F. Davis Stakes Tampa Bay Downs 1 1/16 miles $200,000 Feb 16 2008 Borderland Derby Sunland Park 1 1/16 miles $100,000 Feb 18 2008 Southwest Stakes Oaklawn Park III 1 mile $250,000 Feb 24 2008 Fountain of Youth Stakes Gulfstream Park II 1 1/8 miles $350,000 Mar 1 2008 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes Turfway Park 1 1/16 miles $100,000 Mar 1 2008 Sham Stakes Santa Anita III 1 1/8 miles $200,000 March Mar 8 2008 Louisiana Derby Fair Grounds II 1 1/16 miles $600,000 Mar 8 2008 El Camino Real Derby Bay Meadows III 1 1/16 miles $200,000 Mar 8 2008 Gotham Stakes Aqueduct III 1 1/16 miles $200,000 Mar 15 2008 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita II 1 1/16 miles $250,000 Mar 15 2008 Rebel Stakes Oaklawn Park II 1 1/16 miles $300,000 Mar 15 2008 Tampa Bay Derby Tampa Bay Downs III 1 1/16 miles $300,000 Mar 16 2008 WinStar Derby Sunland Park 1 1/8 miles $600,000 Mar 22 2008 Rushaway Stakes Turfway Park 1 1/16 miles $100,000 Mar 22 2008 Lane's End Stakes Turfway Park II 1 1/8 miles $500,000 Mar 29 2008 Florida Derby Gulfstream Park I 1 1/8 miles $1,000,000 Mar 29 2008 U.A.E. Derby Nad al Sheba II 1 1/8 miles $2,000,000 April Apr 5 2008 Santa Anita Derby Santa Anita I 1 1/8 miles $750,000 Apr 5 2008 Wood Memorial Aqueduct I 1 1/8 miles $750,000 Apr 5 2008 Illinois Derby Hawthorne Race Course II 1 1/8 miles $500,000 Apr 12 2008 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Keeneland I 1 1/8 miles $750,000 Apr 12 2008 Arkansas Derby Oaklawn Park II 1 1/8 miles $1,000,000 Apr 12 2008 Holy Bull Stakes Gulfstream Park III 1 3/16 miles $150,000 Apr 19 2008 Federico Tesio Stakes Pimlico 1 1/8 miles $125,000 Apr 19 2008 Coolmore Lexington Stakes Keeneland II 1 1/16 miles $325,000 Apr 26 2008 Derby Trial Churchill Downs III 1 mile $100,000 Apr 26 2008 Withers Stakes Aqueduct III 1 mile $150,000 May May 3 2008 KENTUCKY DERBY 134 Churchill Downs I 1 1/4 miles $2,000,000
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#5
02-01-2008, 09:46 PM
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2 prep races going off Saturday. The Swale, a 6.5 furlong sprint at Gulfstream( race 6) and the Robert B Lewis, 1 1/16 milesat Santa Anita(race 5).
In the Swale, I like #4 St.Joe at 6-1. This colt is making his 3 year old debut. His last race was in a Grade 3 at Delta Downs in December where he sprinted clear and faded to 6th at a 1 1/16 miles. 2 races back he ran 3rd losing by 3 lengths to Court Vision in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs. He battlede all the way and made a good effort in his 1st try after breaking his maiden. Court Vision is one of my early choices for the Derby this year. A bullet half mile work at Palm Meadows last Sunday, cutting back to a sprint after a 2 month freshening makes this a nice play at 6-1... In the RB Lewis at Santa Anita, a 5 horse field where the morning odds range from 2-1 to 5-1 makes for a wide open affair. I am going with the Japan bred #4 Reflect Times who is stretching out after winning 2 sprints from well off the pace. Plays are... Gulfstream race 6 #4 St. Joe 6-1 Santa Anita race 5 #4 Reflect Times 3-1 good luck to all at the races...
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#6
02-08-2008, 09:06 AM
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St. Joe showed early speed but faded and was eased in the Swale.
Reflect Times layed way back as expected and did not have enough of a rally to finish any better than 3rd in the Robert B. Lewis. Robert B. Lewis 2 Crown Of Thorns 5.40 3.40 2.60 3 Coast Guard 4.00 2.80 4 Reflect Times (JPN) 2.80 Swale 2 Eaton's Gift 9.60 5.00 3.40 3 Surrealdeal 24.80 6.20 6 Wincat 2.80
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#7
02-09-2008, 10:18 AM
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Todays Derby prep race is the Risen Star, the 9th race at Fair Grounds. This race features the 3 year old debut of Pyro, who finished 2nd to war Pass in last years Breeders Cup juvenille at Monmouth. He is listed as a 3-1 ML favorite and the one to beat and obvious class of the field. All but 2 others are making their 2nd starts of the year and a few of those are worth a look.
#11 Z Zortune... Won the LeComte Grade 3 Jan 12 at Fair Grounds. Is 3-0 so far and has good tactical speed, but the outside post could cause problems. A good trip is all he needs to be in the mix. 7-2 ML #3 Visionaire... Deep closer will get a stern class test but has been brilliant in last 2 wins including 5 1/2 length romp after getting bumped hard at the start in an allowance at Gulfstream. Good #3 post position, but may not get enough pace up front for his closing kick. 6-1 ML #2 Blackberry Road... Another closer who has run in 5 graded stakes since breaking his maiden last June at Churchill Downs. Definitely the most battle tested in the field who finished second to Z Fotune as the favorite last time out in the LeComte. Draws #2 post position and could be dangerous with a good trip. 5-1 ML #1 Check It Twice... My longshot play of the race is a Calder shipper who was taken over by Todd Pletcher after he won his last race on Dec 1. He is 3-1-1 from 5 starts all at calder and now is in the barn of one of the top trainers in the country. This horse has come from off the pace in all 5 of his races but has shown some good tactical speed at times. He has been training swiftly and has 2 bullet works the last 2 workouts including a 5F bullet at 59.4 last Saturday morning. All the speed is drawn to the outside and if this horse gets a good break, he could take them gate to wire. 12-1 ML I like both #3 Visionaire and #1 Check It Twice as best bets to win this race... good luck today at the races...
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#8
02-10-2008, 10:27 AM
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Well, for anyone who saw this race, you saw why Pyro is one of the leading candidates for this years Kentucky Derby. He came from dead last at the top of the stretch and flew by everyone in winning going away. Z Fortune finished a game 2nd, with my choice, Visionaire finishing 3rd. My other choice, Check It Twice was scratched.
8 Pyro 3.80 2.60 2.20 11 Z Fortune 3.40 2.60 3 Visionaire 3.60 Quote:
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#9
02-16-2008, 11:48 AM
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Although my schedule shows only 2 prep races today, there are actually 3 depending on what schedule you look at.
The Sam F. Davis stakes at Tampa Bay which is race 10 today features the 3 year old debut of Z Humor, who ran 5th in the Breeders Cup juvenille last year and then closed out his 2 year old campaign with a win in the grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot in December. He is the 9-5 ML favorite, however there are a few others I like who could pull the upset. #1 Wise Answer 4-1ML...Had a nice 2 year old campaign with a 4-2-1 record from 7 starts. His lone start this year was on New Years Day on the turf in a grade 3 stakes at Calder against the likes of Cowboy Cal, Why Tonto and Cannonball who all run later today in the Halladale Beach stakes at Gulfstream. Wise Answer ran 7th that day and I will assumed he just did not like the turf. Shows some nice works since that New Years Day race and draws the inside post along with being back on the dirt makes this one dangerous. #4 Fierce Wind 6-1 ML... Followed up a 10 length maiden win in Dec with a convincing 5 length win in an allowance race at Gulfstream in his first start this year on Jan 21. Gets a big class test today and should be the pacesetter along with #9 Honey Honey Honey who breaks from the outside post. Could take them gate to wire. #7 Smooth Air 9-2ML...Has 2nd best last out beyer(95) behind Z Humor(96) in off the pace win in grade 2 Hutcheson at Gulfstream over a sloppy track in 1st start of year on Jan 5. Has lifetime 3-1-1 record from 5 starts and looks to be the best on paper after Z Humor. Should be close to the pace as he stretches out to 2 turns for first time. My choice....#7 Smooth Air 9-2 to Win. Trifecta box using 1,4,7,8 The Hallandale Beach Stakes at Gulfstream is race 8 today. This race boils down to a 3 horse race and rematch between #1 Cowboy Cal, #3 Why Tonto and #4 Cannonball who ran 1,2,3 last time out in a grade 3 stakes at Calder on New Years day. Cowboy Cal with the inside post looks to be the one to beat as he should get the jump on the field and control the pace. My choice here is #1 Cowboy Cal 9-5 ML to win Trifecta box using 1,3,4,10 The 3rd prep race today is the Borderland Derby race 11 at Sunland Park. This race has a 5 horse field and is pretty wide open with the ML favorite being 8-5 and the longest shot being 6-1. #4 Poni Colada is the 8-5 ML favorite and is trained by top trainer Steve Asmussen. This will be his 7th lifetime start over 6 different tracks so experince is definitely on his side as only 1 other has more than 3 starts including #1 Capetown Royal who is a maiden making his 2nd career start. His 1st start however was in a stakes race at Sunland where he ran 3rd. This horse sold for $310,000 last year at auction which is more than 40 times the stud fee of $7500. Connections obviously see something in this colt and with normal second time out improvement I look for him to break his maiden today. My choice is #1 Capetown Royal 3-1 to Win good luck today at the races...
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#10
02-20-2008, 10:36 PM
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Quote:
results... Sam F. Davis 4 Fierce Wind 8.80 4.60 3.40 6 Big Truck 7.60 5.60 7 Smooth Air 4.20 Borderland Derby 4 Poni Colada 5.40 3.00 2.40 2 Cape Time 3.20 2.20 5 No Jepordy 2.60 Hallandale Beach 3 Why Tonto 13.40 4.20 2.80 1 Cowboy Cal 2.40 2.10 4 Cannonball 3.00
__________________
2011 Fair Grounds Best Bet of the Day contest winner 2011-12 NFL posted record 40-37-3(8-4 in playoffs) 2011-12 CBB record 132-130-8
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#11
02-21-2008, 09:27 PM
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Just 1 Derby prep race this weekend, but it is a good one at Gulfstream Park. The Grade 2 Fountain of Youth , which features the 3 year old debut of Court Vision. At the start of the year, Court Vision was my top choice to contend for the Kentucky Derby so I obviously like this horse to win Sunday and I haven't even handicapped the race yet,lol. But I do see that he has a very good pattern of workouts and trainer William Mott is very good at winning off long layoffs. I will give some insight to those who have a chance after I handicap the race and post them Saturday night.
__________________
2011 Fair Grounds Best Bet of the Day contest winner 2011-12 NFL posted record 40-37-3(8-4 in playoffs) 2011-12 CBB record 132-130-8
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#12
02-23-2008, 08:27 PM
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Fountain of Youth Grade 2, Race 9 at Gulfstream Park
#3 Court Vision 3-1... Making his 3 year old debut after winning 3 races as a 2 year old including 2 graded stakes races. Been training well and if ready, should blow by these at the end much the way Pyro did last week. Others to watch... #1 Cool Coal Man 6-1...Only other 3 time winner besides Court Vision. Won here last month at the same distance so making second start of year. Should get a good stalking trip from inside post. #7 Monba 4-1...Making his 3 year old debut also after 3 good races as a 2 year old winning twice and running 4th just 2 lengths back in a Grade 1 at Hollywood in Dec. behind Into Mischief. Trained by Todd Pletcher so you know he will be ready... #8 Anak Nakal 6-1...Another making his 3 year old debut and one I have on my Derby watch list along with Court Vision. This colt had 2 wins and a second from 3 starts last year at 3 different tracks(Belmont, Aqueduct, Churchill) and 3 different distances(7F, 1M, 1 1/16M). Now he stretches out to 1 1/8M and should be just off the pace. #12 Adriano 20-1...This is my longshot play. Adriano has had 4 turf races and 1 polytrack race in 5 starts(2-1-0) and makes his 1st start over a conventional dirt track. He had a bullet 6F work in 1:12.3 last week on dirt. Makes his 2nd start this year after a convincing 6 3/4 length win in an allowance race at Gulfstream last month. Outside post shouldnt hurt this deep closer... Good luck to all today at the races...
__________________
2011 Fair Grounds Best Bet of the Day contest winner 2011-12 NFL posted record 40-37-3(8-4 in playoffs) 2011-12 CBB record 132-130-8
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#13
02-27-2008, 03:59 PM
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Quote:
1 Cool Coal Man 16.60 8.40 6.00 9 Elysium Fields 8.00 4.40 3 Court Vision 3.40 Cool Coal Man got the perfect stalking trip and won by a half length with Court Vision another almost 6 lengths back. Despite running 3rd, I was pleased with Court Visions performance. The fractions of this race are questionable, but I am sure that the fractions during the race call were wrong. They made it seem like it was a very slow pace with a 25.3 and 49.1 opening quarter and half, but this was wrong. I have seen conflicting results at different sites, but I do know the pace was much quicker than those watching live thought. This was a good start for Court Visions preperation for the Derby and I will be watching him closely...
__________________
2011 Fair Grounds Best Bet of the Day contest winner 2011-12 NFL posted record 40-37-3(8-4 in playoffs) 2011-12 CBB record 132-130-8
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#14
03-05-2008, 03:20 PM
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There are 3 derby prep races comming up this weekend. 2 of them feature some top derby hopefuls and I will give my views on each race before Saturday. The 2 races are as follows...
Saturday at Aqueduct Gotham Stakes featuring undefeated Giant Moon. Saturday at Fair Grounds Louisiana Derby featuring Pyro.
__________________
2011 Fair Grounds Best Bet of the Day contest winner 2011-12 NFL posted record 40-37-3(8-4 in playoffs) 2011-12 CBB record 132-130-8
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#15
03-28-2008, 10:34 AM
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Sorry I have not updated this thread that last few weeks. But Saturday we have the Florida Derby and it looks like it should be a great race. The only thing this race lacks is big name contender( no Pyro, War Pass, Court Vision, Colonel John or other big names here) but there are some entries listed on top 10 lists around including Fierce Wind, Elysium Fields Hey Byrn and Big Brown(3-1 ML favorite) all winners over the Gulfstream surface. Hey Byrn has 2 wins over the track. In fact only 3 of the 12 entered have never won at gulfstream including the mystery horse from Peru, Tomcito. Tomcito dominated in Peru winning 4 of 5 races, including a 3.5 length win a grade 1 race at 1 1/2 miles. He also has won at 1 1/4 miles. This is his first start since Nov 17 and first time Lasix, but has been training well including a mile breeze(1:39.8) March 10 and a 5 furlong bullet work(58.8 sec) 11 days ago. ML is 12-1 on Tomcito.
Big Brown is making his 3rd start after a big performance March 5 winning by almost 13 lengths in an off the track allowance race with just a 5 horse field. This will be a huge class test but obviously there are alot of expectations from this one. 3-1 ML favorite tells you that... I will be going with the mystery horse Tomcito at a price in this race. This horse has an amazing kick(from the races I have seen) and there should be a decent pace up front in this one for him to run at. Tomcito to win...
__________________
2011 Fair Grounds Best Bet of the Day contest winner 2011-12 NFL posted record 40-37-3(8-4 in playoffs) 2011-12 CBB record 132-130-8
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