Early thoughts on Belmont Stakes

[Wabash Wonders]

Here is my early thoughts on the Belmont Stakes now that post positions have been drawn...


#1 Master of Hounds(10-1)...His first try on dirt in the Derby was a succesful one and this is bred to get the distance. Im very high on this horse and expect him to be in top 3 and could easily win it all.

#2 Say Thirsty(20-1)..Ran 12th in the Derby and don't expect much better from him this Saturday either. Toss out

#3 Ruler On Ice(20-1)...Definitely outclassed here, but with blinkers added could show enough speed to press Shackleford on front end. He wont be there in the end at all, but could be part of the early pace. Toss out

#4 Santiva(15-1)...I was high on this horse in the Derby and he ran 6th, beaten only 51/2 lengths. Throw out that effort in the Blue Grass on the polytrack and this horse been improving with each race. He also is bred for the distance and has the tactical speed to be up close in what could be a paceless race. I doubt we will get 15-1 at post time, but still should be a nice price with most of the action going to AK,Shackleford and Nehro. Another I expect to be in top 3 and could win it all.

#5 Brilliant Speed(15-1)...This is another horse that is bred for the distance and ran very well in the Derby. However being a deep closer and with not a lot of pace in this race, Im dont think he will be able to run them down in the end. But he will be running at the end and a must use underneath in exotics.

#6 Nehro(4-1)... Everyone already knows all about this horse. 3 straight 2nd place finishes in La, Arkansas and Kentucky Derbies. Well rested since he skipped the Preakness and no reason to think he wont run another big race. This is my 3rd horse that I like in top3 and could possibly win it all.

#7 Monzon(30-1)...Somewhat of a mystery horse but I keep hearing nice things about this colt. He didn't show much in the Sam Davis at Tampa back in Feb and then took 3 months off. Came back in the Peter Pan and was bumped at the start and then was 5 wide into the stretch and finished 6th. I dont see this horse threatening to crack the top 3, but may use him on the bottom of a superfecta and hope he adds some value.

#8 Prime Cut(15-1)...Another horse that is outclassed here, but he did run 3rd in the Peter Pan. I don't see him getting any better than that. Toss out

#9 Animal Kingdom(2-1)...The favorite is making his 3rd start in 5 weeks. I think any horse that ran in both the Derby and Preakness has little chance to win this race. Too many good fresh horses to overcome to have any chance of winning. But I will use him underneath in my exotics.

#10 Mucho Macho Man(10-1)...This horse would be one of my top selections if he had not run in the Preakness, but as I said above, I just dont see any of the 3 who ran in both Derby and Preakness winning this race. But this is a very good horse and a must use underneath in exotics.

#11 Isn't He Perfect(30-1)...No chance. Toss out

#12 Shackleford(9-2)...The Preakness winner will more than likely be the frontrunner again since there is really no other major speed in this race. And being on the lead is how this horse wants to run. But breaking from post 12 will not help his chances. And the fact that he had a relatively easy lead in the Derby with very slow fractions and couldn't last, why would anyone think he can last another 1/4mile. He may hang on for a piece though, so will use him underneath in exotics.


Recap..

Top horses...Master of Hounds, Santiva, Nehro

2nd tier...Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man,

Others to include...Brilliant Speed, Monzon,Shackleford.


I will post my actual plays Friday night...

[bt33]

Thanks for the write-up Wabash, I look forward to your plays Fri.

[wire2wire]

I like...#1 MASTER OF HOUNDS...to win it...BOXING #3 9/12...w2w

[DaTexans]

Why do u think Ruler on ice will press the pace i see him hanging back and closing he has closed ever race he's ever been in. I would think Prime cut or Nehro and Mucho Macho Man would be pressing Shackleford. Nehro was up close to the pace in the derby i think he was running 4 most of the race. Would like to hear more on your thoughts on Ruler on ice

[Wabash Wonders]

Originally Posted by DaTexans

Why do u think Ruler on ice will press the pace i see him hanging back and closing he has closed ever race he's ever been in. I would think Prime cut or Nehro and Mucho Macho Man would be pressing Shackleford. Nehro was up close to the pace in the derby i think he was running 4 most of the race. Would like to hear more on your thoughts on Ruler on ice

I never said he will press the pace, I said he could. Normally when blinkers are added a horse will show more speed. The fact that blinkers are being added "could" mean they want this horse closer to the pace for this race.

[DaTexans]

Ok i was just wondering i like Ruler on ice a little and if he is pressing the pace he is a throw out like you said. I was wondering if read or heard his trainer talk about him pressing the pace. Its the fact that he is putting on blinkers ok. Thank You for the info and Good Luck on the race's you bet

[rhgraham]

gonna be on nehro

[MCP313]

Thoughts on Master of Hounds +105 over Shakelford

Santiva +135 over Shakelford

Nehro +130 over Animal Kingdom


06/11 06:30 PM
3701. Master of Hounds -150
3702. Brilliant Speed +120
06:30 PM
3703. Master of Hounds +105
3704. Shackleford -135
06:30 PM
3705. Stay Thirsty -150
3706. Ruler on Ice +120
06:30 PM
3707. Stay Thirsty -140
3708. Prime cut +110
06:30 PM
3709. Santiva -110
3710. Brilliant Speed -120
06:30 PM
3711. Santiva +135
3712. Shackleford -165
06:30 PM
3713. Brilliant Speed Even
3714. Mucho Macho Man -130
06:30 PM
3715. Brilliant Speed +125
3716. Shackleford -155
06:30 PM
3717. Nehro +130
3718. Animal Kingdom -160
06:30 PM
3719. Nehro -185
3720. Shackleford +155
06:30 PM
3721. Monzon -125
3722. Isnt He Perfect -105
06:30 PM
3723. Mucho Macho Man Even
3724. Shackleford -130


Thats all of them offered for me......any favs or one that stands out, TIA

[Caddyman]

Thanks for the interesting information. I have to say I know nothing about horse racing but I love to wager on it. I get pretty pumped for this. I am looking for a match up for saturday, can't wait to see what you come up with.

[Wabash Wonders]

Here are my plays I just put in for tomorrow. Have to work tomorrow which is why I had to put these in tonight.


$20 WPS #4 Santiva

$10 WPS #1 Master of Hounds

$2 exacta box...1,4,5,6,9 costing $40

$2 Tri box...1,4,6 costing $12

.10 superfecta...1,4,6/1,4,6,9/1,4,5,6,9,10/1,4,5,6,7,9,10,12 costing $18

.50 pick 4 starting in race 8...1,5,6,7/1,2,6/4,6/1,4,6 costing $36


total wagered $196


good luck to everyone tomorrow...

[Midnight Rider]

Thx for all the info, good luck

[sakras]

Great writeup, thanks for the information.

My play, Brilliant Speed.

GL!!!

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by Wabash Wonders

Here is my early thoughts on the Belmont Stakes now that post positions have been drawn...


#1 Master of Hounds(10-1)...His first try on dirt in the Derby was a succesful one and this is bred to get the distance. Im very high on this horse and expect him to be in top 3 and could easily win it all.

#2 Say Thirsty(20-1)..Ran 12th in the Derby and don't expect much better from him this Saturday either. Toss out

#3 Ruler On Ice(20-1)...Definitely outclassed here, but with blinkers added could show enough speed to press Shackleford on front end. He wont be there in the end at all, but could be part of the early pace. Toss out

#4 Santiva(15-1)...I was high on this horse in the Derby and he ran 6th, beaten only 51/2 lengths. Throw out that effort in the Blue Grass on the polytrack and this horse been improving with each race. He also is bred for the distance and has the tactical speed to be up close in what could be a paceless race. I doubt we will get 15-1 at post time, but still should be a nice price with most of the action going to AK,Shackleford and Nehro. Another I expect to be in top 3 and could win it all.

#5 Brilliant Speed(15-1)...This is another horse that is bred for the distance and ran very well in the Derby. However being a deep closer and with not a lot of pace in this race, Im dont think he will be able to run them down in the end. But he will be running at the end and a must use underneath in exotics.

#6 Nehro(4-1)... Everyone already knows all about this horse. 3 straight 2nd place finishes in La, Arkansas and Kentucky Derbies. Well rested since he skipped the Preakness and no reason to think he wont run another big race. This is my 3rd horse that I like in top3 and could possibly win it all.

#7 Monzon(30-1)...Somewhat of a mystery horse but I keep hearing nice things about this colt. He didn't show much in the Sam Davis at Tampa back in Feb and then took 3 months off. Came back in the Peter Pan and was bumped at the start and then was 5 wide into the stretch and finished 6th. I dont see this horse threatening to crack the top 3, but may use him on the bottom of a superfecta and hope he adds some value.

#8 Prime Cut(15-1)...Another horse that is outclassed here, but he did run 3rd in the Peter Pan. I don't see him getting any better than that. Toss out

#9 Animal Kingdom(2-1)...The favorite is making his 3rd start in 5 weeks. I think any horse that ran in both the Derby and Preakness has little chance to win this race. Too many good fresh horses to overcome to have any chance of winning. But I will use him underneath in my exotics.

#10 Mucho Macho Man(10-1)...This horse would be one of my top selections if he had not run in the Preakness, but as I said above, I just dont see any of the 3 who ran in both Derby and Preakness winning this race. But this is a very good horse and a must use underneath in exotics.

#11 Isn't He Perfect(30-1)...No chance. Toss out

#12 Shackleford(9-2)...The Preakness winner will more than likely be the frontrunner again since there is really no other major speed in this race. And being on the lead is how this horse wants to run. But breaking from post 12 will not help his chances. And the fact that he had a relatively easy lead in the Derby with very slow fractions and couldn't last, why would anyone think he can last another 1/4mile. He may hang on for a piece though, so will use him underneath in exotics.


Recap..

Top horses...Master of Hounds, Santiva, Nehro

2nd tier...Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man,

Others to include...Brilliant Speed, Monzon,Shackleford.


I will post my actual plays Friday night...

good call

[Chris46139]

don't be an asshole Rev

[Wabash Wonders]

Well, not a very good day at all although I doubt many people had this race figured out. Obviously the slop made the race different from what I expected but Im not making any excuses. I still felt I handicapped the race pretty good and had alot of things right including the fact that none of the 3 horses who ran in both the Derby and Preakness would be a factor and they were not. I also said that Ruler On Ice could be the one to press Shackleford on the lead and he didand ended up winning the race. There were many people who didn't think any horse would press Shackleford for the lead.

As for you Rev, the next time you pick 7 winners out of 11 races on a single card like I did last Sunday at Churchill, then come back to the horse forum and strut your stuff. But until then, go play somewhere else. we dont appreciate assholes in the horse forum...