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Old 04-08-2006, 12:08 PM
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Big Races and Hopeful Winners for Saturday's Horses
Hey everyone...
I managed to handicap a few of the bigger races tomorrow Saturday. Here is what the primer logic would suggest as strong plays tomorrow...

Hawthorne Race 7 Ill. Derby...#10 Sweetnorthernsaint (at 4-1 or better) ran another great race in the Gotham a couple of weeks back. Hawthorne is a huge speed track, and I am expecting Desormeaux to take this horse to the front (hopefully he does not hang or get caught in speed duel. All of these horses appear to be a notch below the top 3 year old contenders, so we might see some "form changes" in this race....maybe to cash in on a big Trifecta.

The play is $2 trifecta 10/1,7,8/1,3,5,6,7,8,9 for $36
$50 place and show on #10 ($100 play).

Hawthorne Race 9 The Lost Code...this looks like the strongest play of the day; #1 City Dweller, if we can get 2-1 or more. Beyer figs and primer pace analysis puts this horse in a great spot for the lead to use the track bias. As I normally do not play favorites, I will make an exception and hit this one hard to place. The play is $300 place on #1 City Dweller...hoping to get a $3.60 mutuel to place. I like this horse even more with an off track...pay attention to the weather.

Oaklawn Race #11 The Oaklawn Handicap...here is a solid longshot play; #2 Andromeda's Hero. I have been awaiting this big closer to make some gains and top the 100 Beyer level in a race. He tries every race and has made over $637K in 16 lifetime starts (in the money 9 of 16 starts). Problem is that he is so one-dimensional; he has one late run and that's it. However, I think the pace will be pretty swift here, and the inside post may keep him a bit closer to the pace (note his starting posts in his last 4 races). Jockey switch to Borel and third start of form cycle may also help. Hoping to get at least 8-1 here, as I know some pretty sharp people who like to bet heavy on horses like this...so,

$100 win, place, and show. Keeping it simple here, but a possible trifecta box might be 1,2,3,6.

Good luck to all. I will play all of these plays regardless of the track condition, but you may want to be cautious on any off tracks. Great racing tomorrow; looking forward to adding to the bankroll.
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