Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

Notices

Horse Racing Sports Handicapping at the Racetrack!

Likes Likes:  0
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:46 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
Horse Racing 8-26-17

Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:47 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
At the Gate - Saturday
August 25, 2017
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider



SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (11:35 ET)

#8 Good Magic 5-2
#2 Hazit 3-1
#6 High North 6-1
#5 Road to Meath 7-2

Analysis: Good Magic is one of two firsters in here sent out by the Chad Brown barn that is 20% winners overall with first time starters. Brown has hit with 3 of 13 juvie firsters at this meeting to date. This colt was a $1 million Keeneland purchase, by Curlin out of the stakes winner Glinda the Good ($226,758) who has dropped one winner. The colt is working quickly in the mornings capped off by a sharp gate drill on Aug. 20. He looks ready to fire.

Hazit debuts for the Pletcher barn that is 4 for 15 (with a +ROI) with two-year-old debut runners at this meeting. The $430,000 Ocala purchase is by War Front out of the stakes winner Rumor ($418,391) her first foal to race. Solid looking works over the Oklahoma training track and Johnny V. takes the call.

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,5,6,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,5,6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8



Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 10 The Sword Dancer G1 (4:49 ET)

#7 Idaho 2-1
#6 Erupt 3-1
#3 Sadler's Joy 5-1
#5 Money Multiplier 7-2

Analysis: Idaho ships in from overseas for the O'Brien barn. The colt won the Hardwicke (G2) two back at Ascot and then last out ran third in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) behind a couple of good runners. The winner Enable came back to win the Yorkshire Oaks (G1) on Thursday at York and the runner up Ulysses came back to win the Juddmonte International (G1) on Wednesday. The colt was no match for Erupt in the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine last fall but comes in here in much better form than his main rival and Ryan Moore is in to ride.

Erupt faded to finish ninth in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (G1) and has now lost three in a row since taking the Canadian International. He likes his ground firmer and he will get it this afternoon which should get him back on track. The multiple Group 1 winner is better than he has showed in his last three outings.

Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7



Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 9 The Pat O'Brien G2 (6:09 PT)

#8 Danzing Candy 8-5
#6 Kobe's Back 6-1
#1 Moe Candy 6-1
#4 Silent Bird 5-1

Analysis: Danzing Candy is going to be tough as the chalk here for Baffert. The colt dueled for the early lead and finished gamely to win the San Carlos (G2) last out by a neck. The runner up Ransom the Moon came back to win the Bing Crosby (G1) in his next outing on July 29. For a sprint, there is not much confirmed early speed in here and this guy is going to be on or just off the pace.

Kobe's Back was off a beat slow and after being outrun early came with a mild late run to finish fourth in the Bing Crosby, beaten 4 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The pace set up is not ideal for this guy but he does get an extra furlong here. Prat picks up the call and has been live when riding for this barn.

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 1,4,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 1,4,6,8 / 1,4,6,8,11


Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga

R3: #2 Chirping 12-1
R6: #5 Eskenformoney 12-1
R7: #7 Highway Star 10-1
R9: #1 Stallwalkin’ Dude 8-1
R11: #9 McCraken 12-1
R11: #1 Cloud Computing 8-1
R13: #6 Mohican 8-1
$13: #5 Champagne Papi 12-1
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:48 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8700 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 26 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500 MANITOBA BRED RESTRICTED RACES NOT CONSIDERED FOR ELIGIBILITY PURPOSES).


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 SHE'S A TEN 6/5

# 4 SHE BE FAST 15/1

# 3 PEAKABOO BRIDE 10/1

I favor SHE'S A TEN here. Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong speed figures (73 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Has a solid shot for this event if you like back class. Boasts reliable speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. SHE BE FAST - Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this racer a key contender. Should be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:48 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 55

Rating: 4

#1 SEEKING THE ROSE (ML=6/1)


SEEKING THE ROSE - Have to make this mare a serious competitor; she comes off a strong contest on Aug 3rd. A repeat of that recent effort on August 3rd where she registered a speed rating of 50 looks strong enough to win in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KATE'S SONG (ML=5/2), #4 SAMURAI JEAN (ML=7/2), #7 AZICHARGE (ML=4/1),

KATE'S SONG - This probable favorite ran on July 22nd and hasn't had a drill since then. SAMURAI JEAN - Run-of-the-mill speed rating last time out at Belterra Park at 1 mile. Don't believe this mount will improve too much in today's event. AZICHARGE - Registered a substandard rating in the last race in a $6,250 Maiden Claiming race on August 11th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 SEEKING THE ROSE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:49 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

Fair Grounds - Race 4

Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double


Claiming $5,000 • 870 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $5,500 • Post: 1:51P
QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * GAME ON VINCE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating.
6
GAME ON VINCE
7/2

5/2
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:50 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hazel Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8500 Class Rating: 39

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 RUN AWAY B B 7/2

# 5 RED ROCK STAR 3/1

# 2 COME ON SID 6/1

I give the nod to RUN AWAY B B here. Will probably compete admirably in the early speed clash which bodes well with this field. Ran a solid last race. Look for this racer to be close up at the finish versus these ponies. RED ROCK STAR - This pony is ranked high in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. His chances to prove victorious are much better this time around facing this easier bunch. COME ON SID - This field is much easier than the last one he ran against.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:50 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Louisiana Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating: 4

#9 WRECK EM (ML=5/2)
#3 SONG CAPTAIN (ML=12/1)


WRECK EM - This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +100. This thoroughbred may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. When the field turns for home, he could put these away. Just see his last speed fig, 58. That one looks good in this field. SONG CAPTAIN - Ran last out against tougher competition at Lone Star Park. The move down in the class scale should suit him well. I'm focusing on the class of this mount, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 INTERNAL STORM (ML=2/1), #4 BILLIARDS (ML=4/1), #6 SECRET POMATINI (ML=5/1),

INTERNAL STORM - This probable favorite may be out of form without any recent workouts. BILLIARDS - Hard to wager on at 4/1 odds after the last two outings. Tough for this closer horse to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. SECRET POMATINI - The seventh place result in the last affair was not the greatest. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last contest which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - WRECK EM - Don't overlook this horse in your wagering. He owns the best average class figure against these horses in this race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #9 WRECK EM on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:51 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #6 - 2:20 PM
The Personal Ensign Stakes
9.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I STAKES $700,000.00 PURSE

#2 SONGBIRD
#4 FOREVER UNBRIDLED
#3 GOING FOR BROKE
#5 ESKENFORMONEY

Known as the Firenze Stakesfrom 1948-85 and the John A. Morris Stakes from 1986-97, the Personal Ensign was renamed in honor of the undefeated champion filly owned and bred by Ogden Phipps. Her dramatic victory in the 1988 Breeders' Cup Distaff capped a 13-for-13 career as she became the first major horse in more than 80 years to accomplish such a feat. Here in the 68th renewal of "TheEnsign," #2 SONGBIRD qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, including a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Mike Smith has been in her irons on 14 previous occasions, hitting the board in each, winning 13 times, and is back today here at "The Spa" for ride #15. #4 FOREVER UNBRIDLED has also hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, including "POWER RUN WINS" in both her last start, as well as in her 3rd race back.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 08-26-2017, 06:51 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 139,641
Rewards: 152,891
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 349
Likes (Received): 6564
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Timonium

Timonium - Race 5

Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 5 &6) 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)


Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 3:15P
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 26 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 26 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $3,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. POMEROY'S PACKAGE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * POMEROY'S PACKAGE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6
POMEROY'S PACKAGE
6/1

2/1
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
8-26-17, horse, racing

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:44 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.00% Host: cappersmallweb2