Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

Horse Racing Sports Handicapping at the Racetrack!

Likes Likes:  0
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-05-2017, 06:45 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 149,027
Rewards: 164,728
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 374
Likes (Received): 8440
Horse Racing 9-5-17

Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-05-2017, 06:45 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 149,027
Rewards: 164,728
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 374
Likes (Received): 8440
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie

Fort Erie - Race 1

WPS, Exactor, Triactor, 20 Cent Superfecta, 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Daily Double


Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $18,600 • Post: 1:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING SINCE AUGUST 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JULY 5 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(LIMITED TO 8 STARTERS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF FIVE FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. HELISSIO SARASOLA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HELISSIO SARASOLA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning di stance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). MCGARRETT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Hor se has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5
HELISSIO SARASOLA
2/1

3/1
2
MCGARRETT
9/5

9/2
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-05-2017, 06:46 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 149,027
Rewards: 164,728
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 374
Likes (Received): 8440
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 74

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 PROMISES TO KEEP 5/2

# 12 GIVE ALL CASH 15/1

# 5 PAPPY ON THE ROCKS 10/1

I think PROMISES TO KEEP is a solid choice. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 68 speed figure which is one of the best in this field. Will almost certainly come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved rapidly to the lead recently. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 86 - of his last outing. GIVE ALL CASH - Has been racing admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. Ought to be carefully examined in this contest if only for the decent speed figure garnered in the last contest. PAPPY ON THE ROCKS - Has to be given a chance based on the respectable speed rating earned in the last race.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-05-2017, 06:46 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 149,027
Rewards: 164,728
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 374
Likes (Received): 8440
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Louisiana Downs - Race #2 - Post: 3:42pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: 3

#3 CIAO FOR NOW (ML=7/2)
#6 CHAT RAT (ML=3/5)


CIAO FOR NOW - Faces state bred foes today after finishing fourth versus 'open' company on August 14th. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. I have to like this gelding's chances of winning at the shorter trip. CHAT RAT - The ROI when Castillo and Delany get together is fantastic. The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. Taking a big drop in class rating points from his August 26th race at Louisiana Downs. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this horse the advantage. Have to like the way Delany has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TOAST TO MICHAEL (ML=6/1), #2 SMOOTH GALLOP (ML=8/1),

TOAST TO MICHAEL - This gelding didn't show me enough down the stretch run to warrant backing against stronger competition. Substandard speed fig last race out at Louisiana Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this mount will improve too much today. SMOOTH GALLOP - This animal doesn't have a conquering temperament. Time-and-again finishes in the place and show spots.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #3 CIAO FOR NOW on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-05-2017, 06:47 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 149,027
Rewards: 164,728
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 374
Likes (Received): 8440
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6600 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 5, 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 ARCHER QUEEN 8/5

# 3 D'FOREST DIVA 5/1

# 1 FLEET PERFORMER 10/1

ARCHER QUEEN is my choice. The handler wheels this one back quickly to race again. With a sound jock who has won at a decent 19 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top selections. Should best this field here, showing respectable figures of late. D'FOREST DIVA - Has been running quite well lately and will most likely be on the lead early on. Put up a reliable speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. FLEET PERFORMER - Could provide positive gains based on very strong recent speed figures with an average of 59. A solid 74 avg class figure may give this mare a distinct class edge versus this field.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-05-2017, 06:47 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 149,027
Rewards: 164,728
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 374
Likes (Received): 8440
Handicapped by Valuline at Presque Isle Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Presque Isle Downs, Race 6 (Tuesday September 5, 2017)

MR. CAT
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

PID-6 5.5f ALLW Six Horses
"A" CLM 16,000 3YUP $15,000
P# ex p3 t ML WP TVL

2 MR. CAT 7/5 45% 6/5 Strong Favorite icon
3 SMARTY'S PAL 8/5 18% 9/2
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 09-05-2017, 06:48 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 149,027
Rewards: 164,728
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 374
Likes (Received): 8440
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 4:31pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,500 Class Rating: 76

Rating: 3

#9 RETURN OF A GIANT (ML=8/1)
#1 ROCKY THE KID (ML=20/1)
#2 MEGACOSM (ML=12/1)
#11 OK NOW (ML=9/2)
#10 DON'TSELLHIMSHORT (ML=10/1)


RETURN OF A GIANT - You always have to be on the lookout for profit making rider/trainer duos; we have one right here. McCaslin had been running this gelding at higher levels recently. Did win a $10,000 Claiming race though, on May 7th. Could do it again here. McCaslin drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to figure that this horse will be one to beat at this level. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should benefit from this shorter distance. ROCKY THE KID - I like when a pony has dropped in class at least five class points like this one did last time out and then runs against a similar field right back. St Lewis must've found the right level. This gelding is in a good spot here. Is at the same distance he won at on May 16th. You may want to disregard that last race at Parx Racing on a track listed as good where he finished off the board. Should do well right here in this race on a fast track. MEGACOSM - The return on investment when Hernandez and Pinkney get together is terrific. Was in a $25,000 Claiming race at Monmouth Park in the last race. That event had an Equibase class figure of 96 and he is moving down today. A certain contender. Entered a $25,000 Claiming race at Monmouth Park last time around the track and raced on a track listed as good finishing fifth. Expect better in this race. OK NOW - All systems look good for this gelding. Last work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready. I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice effort within the last thirty days. Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. That was a powerful win last time out. In my opinion has a good chance to repeat today. Just see his recent speed fig, 73. That one fits in this bunch. DON'TSELLHIMSHORT - Lets try to beat the low-odds horses with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a decent race. Entered a $5,000 Claiming race at Penn National last out and raced in the slop finishing fourth. Have to give a better effort in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 MY COTTON JONES (ML=3/1), #12 TRUE TO HIS WORD (ML=5/1), #7 IN THE SCRIPT (ML=8/1),

MY COTTON JONES - When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a better speed figure than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint. TRUE TO HIS WORD - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint contests of late. Improbable to see him doing it today either. Finished fourth in his most recent race with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field. IN THE SCRIPT - Not probable that the rating he earned on August 12th will hold up in this event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #9 RETURN OF A GIANT to win if you can get at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,9] with [1,2,9] with [1,2,9,10,11] with [1,2,9,10,11] Total Cost: $24
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 09-05-2017, 06:48 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 149,027
Rewards: 164,728
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 374
Likes (Received): 8440
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

Thistledown - Race 4

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)


Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 47 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 3:10P
FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MT. ORAB KIDD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the h ighest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PROBATE CAT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
1
MT. ORAB KIDD
3/1

5/2
6
PROBATE CAT
10/1

9/2
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
9-5-17, horse, racing

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:18 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.00% Host: cappersmallweb6