Kentucky Derby is WIDE OPEN!!!!!

[Wabash Wonders]

I know some will say, " Big Brown has the speed and can run all day, no one will beat him" and others, " Pyro just didnt like the poltrack and he is the best and cant lose" West coasters will argue that Colonel John is the next Giacomo and has what it takes to win at 1 1/4 miles. But the bottom line is this years derby is as wide open as I have seen in years. Big Brown will be the public favorite I believe but none of my money will be going his way. He may be the best horse out there, but I cant bet on a horse in the Derby that only has 3 races and hasnt really faced any top quality horses yet. I am a big supporter of Tomcito who ran 3rd to Big Brown in the Florida Derby behind by more than 12 lengths. But keep in mind that Tomcito was making his 3 year old debut and first race in almost 6 months. And he still finished 3rd which shows the rest of the field was not very strong. If Big Brown wins I will be the first to congratulate those who bet on him, but I can not put money on horse with his experience in the Derby. Pyro, who will be the other betting favorite more than likely, is a different story. He has proven himself and deserves to be the favorite despite his poor performance in the Blue Grass. Its very possible he did not like the polytrack, and I also heard that his connections more or less said before the race that he would not win( read that on the Kentucky Derby website, but not sure how true it is). I for one, did not expect him to win, but I expected a better performance than he gave. Now the question is can he come back off that poor effort?

For me the questions surronding these 2 probable favorites is enough to make me look elsewhere betting wise. But now the question is, where? Outside of these 2, there is no clear cut favorite that has run with any consistancy and been winning. Ok, yes, Colonel John is the exception, but with him the question remains is he strictly a polytrack kind of horse. Churchill will be his first dry on a conventional dirt track. Lets face it, someone is sitting on a big race, but who is it? I like Tomcito's chances if he gets in. I think he needs to run again to get more graded earnings to qualify which means he may run next Saturday in the Lexington at Keeneland. And I think getting another race in before the derby will only help. The short 2 weel layoff til the derby is the only question, but I think the fact he has already won at 1 1/$ and 1 1/2 miles shows his stamina can handle it. That 3rd start off the layoff can sometimes be the big one too. Another that I like who I think is sitting on a big race is Court Vision. This horse has run what seems like 2 dull races finishing 3rd twice as a 3 year old in the FOY and Wood. His beyer did improve slightly in the Wood and was beaten less than 2 lengths. The 3rd start off the layoff could prove to be the big one and he will love the extra distance in what should be a very fast pace for him to run at late. Others to watch are Z Fortune, Gayego, Tale of Ekati, Smooth Air, Atoned and Recapturethegolory.

As we approach the Derby, Id love to hear some others thoughts on who they like and why...

[WildKat]

I am going to stick with Pyro...I been on him from day one and I'm gonna hope that it was just a bad day.......I should get some better odds now..lol

[Bozzie]

Love Colonel John
The Santa Anita Derby.
The kind of race you love to see... what a closing move from the outside. (see link)
And I might add sort of a weird trip.. the move to the middle of the track is a bit awkward but still managed to close strong.
I'll have this horse heading my exotics.

Link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZbEznrXXRs

[Pigeon]

Originally Posted by bozzie

Love Colonel John
The Santa Anita Derby.
The kind of race you love to see... what a closing move from the outside. (see link)
And I might add sort of a weird trip.. the move to the middle of the track is a bit awkward but still managed to close strong.
I'll have this horse heading my exotics.

Link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZbEznrXXRs

Colonal John and War Pass are both good for exotic bets. Similar type of Horses to Hard Spun where they take an early lead and either hold it or run out of gas so close to the finish line that they still make the exotics.

[uncfelix]

I really like Pyro. His path to the derby is perfect imo. That first race speaks for itself, the most impressive and dramatic big race move since Arazi in the Juvenile Breeders Cup. I think he ran the last eighth of a mile in 11 seconds or thereabouts. That tells me he should be okay running the derby distance. Next race, they keep him closer to the pace and out of trouble, a much more professionally run race. Nonetheless, I believe they will take him far back because that seems to be his preferred running style. Third race is a throw out. I heard Asmussen on TVG say that he thinks the Keeneland surface is good workout for horses and that was his decision in sending Pyro there. I don't think it matters that he did not win; they likely wanted a good workout. I mean this horse has been way too consistent on dirt to think that his performance on polytrack was anything other than an aberration. And I don't know if this is true or not, really wasn't paying attention, but I also heard that Asmussen was in Arkansas instead of in Kentucky on Saturday. If that's the case, then the argument is a little stronger that they weren't using the race for anything other than a tune up. Remember Curlin won in Arkansas the year before but did not get it done in Kentucky. Finally, with War Pass and Big Brown being front runners, I tend to think the pace should be honest enough, and I don't think anyone in this filed has Pyro's closing kick.

[smitch124]

War Pass anounced out of the derby....somebody here mentioned that their father said he didn't look right, Gary Stevens said the same thing. Now he's out....haven't heard if they said why yet.

[Wabash Wonders]

Originally Posted by smitch124

War Pass anounced out of the derby....somebody here mentioned that their father said he didn't look right, Gary Stevens said the same thing. Now he's out....haven't heard if they said why yet.

War Pass has a small fracture in his left ankle which is why he has dropped out of the Derby...

[smitch124]

Does this change the pace scenario for the Derby?

[Wabash Wonders]

Here is a list of top Derby contenders and earnings...


1. Pyro $1,020,000
2. Tale Of Ekati $738,000
3. Colonel John $720,000
4. Gayego $640,000
5. Big Brown $600,000
6. Z Humor $579,000
7. Monba $515,000
8. Court Vision $331,872
9. Z Fortune $329,000
10. Adriano $310,000
11. Recapturethegolory $300,000
12. Smooth Air $290,000
13. Salute The Sarge $258,940
14. Cool Coal Man $212,767
15. Anak Nakal $212,216
16. Eight Belles $210,000 (filly)
17. Cowboy Cal $207,660
18. Visionaire $202,500
19. Big Truck $194,500
20. Bob Black Jack $180,000
21. Denis of Cork $165,000

25. Tomcito $151,292 (runs today in Lexington)

29. Atoned $130,000 (runs today in Lexington)