Longshot play of the day at Keeneland

[Wabash Wonders]

Race 5 today at Keeneland...


#1 El Aleman 12-1


This horse has gotten no respect at the betting window in any of his first 5 races and some may say deservedly so but a closer look tells me he ready to break thru today and finally break his maiden.

As a 2year old last year he ran twice. His 1st race was on the turf at Ellis Park where he went off at 32-1 in a mile race and ran 5th of 10 finishing 9 lengths back. He exchanged bumps at the start and was last 11 lengths back at first call, so ran an even race passing tired rivals at the end. His 2nd race he added Lasix and went off at 45-1 again at a mile moving to the polytrack at Turfway. He was 8th of 10 horses at first call just 4 1/2 lengths back and finished a rallying 4th just a length behind the winner. He then went to the sidelines for 6 months returning March 1 in a mile race at Turfway where he went off at 14-1 odds. Obviously needing that race, he ran a dull 7th of 12 horses finishing 12 lengths back. However, note that the second and third place finishes from that race both came back to win and that the 3rd place finisher was Felon, who is an improving 3 year old who is entered in todays Lexington featuring many horses trying to get into the Kentucky Derby. So that was obviously a key race despite the dull performance. His connections then felt highly enough of the horse to run him next in the LanesEnd Grade 2 at Turfway as a maiden stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. However, this was to much for him as he was outrun finishing 9th of 11 horses at 148-1 odds. One thing to note however is that his speed beyers continued to improve with each race.( 43,44,52,56) His last race was just 2 weeks ago on the 2nd day of the meet at Keeneland. Dropping back to straight maidens after his unsuccesful try against graded stakes company, he stayed at the 1 1/8 miles distance going off at 60-1. This time instead of laying back, he broke to the lead and held on til late before weakening and finishing 4th losing by just 3 lengths and improving his beyer again to 74. Today, he gets the #1 post and cuts back to 1 1/16 miles. Speed was holding good yeaterday and if it continues, all El Aleman needs is a good break and he could easily go gate to wire at a price.

Good luck to all today at the races...