My Derby Analysis

[weazel079]

Here is the starting lineup. I will eliminate most the fied as I break down the derby.

#1 Cool Coal Man
#2 Tale of Ekati
#3 Ankal Nakal
#4 Court Vision
#5 Eight Belles
#6 Z Fortune
#7 Big Truck
#8 Visionaire
#9 Pyro
#10 Colonel John
#11 Z Humor
#12 Smooth Air
#13 Bob Black Jack
#14 Monba
#15 Adriano
#16 Denis of Cork
#17 Cowboy Cal
#18 Recapturetheglory
#19 Gayego
#20 Big Brown

[weazel079]

Horses that fail to fire in their last race before the derby usually don't show up for the big race. 43/46 (93%) Derby Winners won or finished 2nd/3rd in the final prep race.

Horses in red are eliminated.

#1 Cool Coal Man
#2 Tale of Ekati
#3 Ankal Nakal
#4 Court Vision
#5 Eight Belles
#6 Z Fortune
#7 Big Truck
#8 Visionaire
#9 Pyro
#10 Colonel John
#11 Z Humor
#12 Smooth Air
#13 Bob Black Jack
#14 Monba
#15 Adriano
#16 Denis of Cork
#17 Cowboy Cal
#18 Recapturetheglory
#19 Gayego
#20 Big Brown

[weazel079]

No horse has captured the Kentucky Derby without an April prep race in the last 20+ years. The Derby is a grueling race for these horses. Morning workouts can't simulate experiences gained through racing in the afternoon. Past greats like Charlie Whittingham and modern day conditioners like Michael Dickinson have been able to train older, more seasoned Thoroughbreds up to optimal performances off lengthy layoffs, but young, lightly raced three-year-olds have proven incapable of handling the demands of 10 furlongs under 126 pounds following an extended rest in modern times. A fresh horse is undesirable on Derby Day.

Eliminated in red:

#1 Cool Coal Man
#2 Tale of Ekati
#3 Ankal Nakal
#4 Court Vision
#5 Eight Belles
#6 Z Fortune
#7 Big Truck
#8 Visionaire
#9 Pyro
#10 Colonel John
#11 Z Humor
#12 Smooth Air
#13 Bob Black Jack
#14 Monba
#15 Adriano
#16 Denis of Cork
#17 Cowboy Cal
#18 Recapturetheglory
#19 Gayego
#20 Big Brown (Going to have to let this one beat me. Too many trends going against this horse. Very young horse, unexperienced horse with lots of speed right to its inside. Ground loss can be expected. Going to have to be a monster to win this.

[Bozzie]

nice work here....Weazel
Watching.

[weazel079]

Other than last years Street Sense, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with fewer than three starts at three before the race over the last few decades. Exampes of horses that have fallen to this trend: (Point Given 2001 favorite), (Arazi 1992 favorite at 4:5) (2005 - Declans Moon, Rockport Harbor, Wiko, Afleet Alex). young horses face completely different circumstances at Churchill Downs. How they handle the surface is a major factor because the track can be hard, with little bottom to it, and horses often have to bounce off it. The run into the first turn is anything but clean. Many jockeys have compared the trip to bumper cars with traffic problems being a concern throughout. And then there is the weight.

For the first time in their careers, Kentucky Derby participants get loaded down with an extreme weight assignment of 126 pounds. They're typically picking up at least four pounds off their last prep race while stretching out in distance.

And we can't forget the distance issue, either. Ten furlongs. Most horses aren't suited for the distance at this early stage in their career. Holy Bull (Travers [G1]) and Came Home (Pacific Classic [G1]) are a couple of recent examples of horses who went on to claim major events at 1 1/4 miles four months down the road, but they were up the track going 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
The Kentucky Derby is different from any other race. A little luck is necessary, but a horse must also be able to overcome adversity. Recent history shows us an April prep race, juvenile experience and at least three starts at three before the Kentucky Derby are all key ingredients to getting it done.

Eliminated in Red:
#1 Cool Coal Man
#2 Tale of Ekati
#3 Ankal Nakal
#4 Court Vision
#5 Eight Belles
#6 Z Fortune
#7 Big Truck
#8 Visionaire
#9 Pyro
#10 Colonel John
#11 Z Humor
#12 Smooth Air
#13 Bob Black Jack
#14 Monba
#15 Adriano
#16 Denis of Cork
#17 Cowboy Cal
#18 Recapturetheglory
#19 Gayego
#20 Big Brown

[weazel079]

28 of the last 29 winners (97%) had a win as a 2 year old in a race equal to or longer than 8 furlongs (1 mile). Experience and success going route at a younger age has resuted in success. Many horses don't have what it takes to get the the mile and a quarter.
11 of the last 12 winners (92%) showed a last furlong race time equal to or less than :13 seconds in their 9 furlong prep race. This shows that the horse will have the stamina and extra kick it needs to win the derby. In particular the Wood Memorial was a very weak race.

Eliminated in Red:
#1 Cool Coal Man
#2 Tale of Ekati
#3 Ankal Nakal
#4 Court Vision
#5 Eight Belles
#6 Z Fortune
#7 Big Truck
#8 Visionaire
#9 Pyro
#10 Colonel John
#11 Z Humor
#12 Smooth Air
#13 Bob Black Jack (Think this horse is going to be the leader then just die out badly late)
#14 Monba
#15 Adriano
#16 Denis of Cork
#17 Cowboy Cal
#18 Recapturetheglory
#19 Gayego
#20 Big Brown

[weazel079]

Only 4 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1940 have had a dosage index above 4.0. The Dosage Index (DI) is a mathematical figure used to rate a horse's capability to run successfully at various distances. Giacamo was the last to win with a DI over 4. BBJ, Gayego, and RCglory all have DI's over 4, are front running horses and most likely will not make the grueling distance. I already have them eliminated though.

[weazel079]

24 of the last 31 winners (77%) had a stakes win as a 3 year old. We want to play on horses that have won this year and know how to get the job done.

Of the four remaining one horses in eliminated.

#5 Eight Belles
#6 Z Fortune
#11 Z Humor
#17 Cowboy Cal

[weazel079]

38/46 (82%) of Kentucky Derby winners final prep races were the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Lexington, and Florida Derby. Horses that haven't run in these races haven't faced stiff competition yet and may be over their head.

Down to 2:

#5 Eight Belles
#6 Z Fortune
#11 Z Humor
#17 Cowboy Cal

[weazel079]

I can't separate these two and the odds shoud be reasonable, so I will play them both.

My Plays:
$10 Win $20 Place: #6 Z Fortune, #17 Cowboy Cal
$4 exacta: 6,17/2,4,5,6,11,12,14,15,17
$4 to win on #15 Adriano

[chucker]

Thanks for all the helpful research here Weasel.