My Derby thoughts and plays...

[Wabash Wonders]

With the conditions, still handicapping so will post all my plays later. But will give my insight on who I like now. I already have some future wagers in on Dublin who has been my top selection for a while and still is.

Top pick...

#17 Dublin...Been very consistent this year without winning(3-0-1-2) running against many of these. Sitting on a big race and today is the day.


Next choices...

#4 Super Saver...One thing I love to see with a young 3 year old is increasing beyers from race 1 with no break in pattern. Super Saver has this(74,85,85,93,93,98) although he did have 2 even back to back races but never dropped. This is the sign of an improving horse. The fact he beat my top selection by a nose last out and add Calvin Borel to the mix and you have a possible winner.

#13 Jackson Bend...Zito trained horses are always ones to watch in the Derby and this one has been training well since arriving at CD. Chased Eskendereya his last 2 races finishing 2nd in both. Has good tactical speed to keep him close to the leading pace setters. Increasing beyers in all 3 starts this year(90,92,93) and veteran Mike Smith takes over the reigns.


#14 Mission Impazible...Has only 5 starts( tied with Devel May Care and Conveyance with the fewest) but shows the increasing beyer pattern I like. His maiden win over the poly at Keeneland had no beyer but since then his figures have been 70,87,89,94. Had a nice 5F(1:00.1) work in the slop last week so should handle the off track. Look impressive in last race winning the La Derby. Dangerous at a price.


Use underneath...


#2 Ice Box..Another Zito trained entry that has the running style to pick up the pieces at the end. Probably won't win, but a definite use in the exoctics.


#7 American Lion...Has the speed to be close to the pace and the breeding to handle the distance( sire is BC Classic winner Tiznow). Thats always a good combination.

#16 Awesome Act...Stumbled at the break and then lost a shoe but still ran a good 3rd last out behind Eskendereya and Jackson Bend. That was only his 2nd try over dirt after winning the Gotham in his initial try. I probably wont use this one on top anywhere, but he definitely scares me. A must use underneath.

#20 Sidney's Candy...Obviously #1 Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy were top 2 choices after Eskendereya dropped out and before the post position draw. But after the draw I dropped Lucky from all consideration. Just cant see him overcomming all the negatives against him. Sidney's Candy however I still think can make an impact from post #20. I doubt he can win from this post, but I think he is good enough to get a piece if he handles the offtrack.


Sleeper picks...

# 8 Dean's Kitten...a turf horse that I think will love the wet sealed churchill track. Has the running style to pull the huge upset if race sets up for him. Have this one included in my Oaks/Derby DD and Oaks/Woodford?Derby pick 3.


#10 Paddy O'Prado...Another turf horse who seems to love the wet churchill track(had a 5F bullet work(58.2)last week) Could surprise at a big price. Another I included in my Oaks/Derby DD and Oaks/Woodford?Derby pick 3.



Super sleeper..



#18 Backtalk...hunch play more than anything being by Smarty Jones who also won this race in the slop....


All other horses for me right now are throw outs. I will base most of my bets around these horses mentioned.

[Chris46139]

Good luck today Wabash, bring home something big today