My Kentucky Derby thoughts...

[Wabash Wonders]

The biggest racing day of the year is upon us and once again the weather could be a factor. They are calling for a 40% chance of rain this afternoon so who knows what the track will be like come post time. Im basing my analysis hoping for a fast track, but could be some minor changes if track comes up sloppy...

I am sticking with my original play of #12 Santiva despite his performance in the Blue Grass. Rating him on his previous performance in the Risen Star where he ran a good 2nd to Mucho Macho Man and the fact he won on this track last year in a graded stakes race puts him in the thick of it at a nice price.

Others I like on top are...

#2 Brilliant Speed...I don't care about the poly only wins, this horse will handle the distance and be flying at the end.

#13 Mucho Macho Man...My second choice behind Santiva was the winner of the Risen Star and then ran 3rd, less than a length behind Pants on Fire and Nehro despite losing a shoe out of the gate. Strong second choice behind Santiva.

#16 Animal Kingdom...yes, another poly track horse who is lightly raced and has the running style to be a factor at the end. Look for this one to sit midpack and make a good run in the stretch...

Horses I will use underneath in exotic plays...

#1 Archarcharch...would have been among my plays on top if not for the #1 hole post. Still think he is a good enough horse to get up for a piece.

#8 Dialed In...Probable favorite which is why he is only being used underneath. Should be in position to gain a piece in the end.

#11 Master of Hounds...the mystery horse from overseas who also is a poly horse. If he handles the dirt, he could be the best horse in the field, but can he handle the dirt?...

#17 Soldat...if the track comes up wet, will also use this one underneath.


Others to consider...

#14 Shackleford and #19 Nehro...


good luck to all today at the races...