Oaks analysis

Jerry's Kid · #1 05-02-2007, 09:22 AM

Race analysis

Churchill Downs - Kentucky Oaks
By BYRON KING

1. Rags to Riches 2. Octave 3. High Heels

RAGS TO RICHES has wowed observers by winning three straight in California, including the Grade 1 Las Virgenes and Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. A $1.9 million purchase by A. P. Indy, she figures to appreciate the stretch out to 1 1/8 miles. Ashland runner-up OCTAVE has run second in four straight races after winning the Adirondack at Saratoga. She appeared to be making a winning move when she last raced over this track in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies in November, but hung after making a bid alongside DREAMING OF ANNA. HIGH HEELS romped in the Grade 2 Fantasy, defeating COTTON BLOSSOM by 6.75 lengths in fast time. She has hit the board in all four of her local starts.

A Closer Look

Churchill Downs - Kentucky Oaks
By JEFF TAYLOR

Dawn After Dawn: Have to really know the low key barn to appreciate the fact that they shipped to Keeneland for a reason and almost robbed the train at over 50-1 with a late rally and few will take her as lightly today even though she is in another very deep and talented field; that Ashland try did produce her best ever Beyer but not by much and feel that she might have a little more; so much in here is going to depend on trips and at least she will able to save some ground before having to worry about trying to get through or around; like her for part once again.

Cash Included: Lots of bold type in those company lines of hers and simply adding blinkers is asking a lot of her to jump over half a dozen foes with regard to finish position; her running style has varied but without the shades, we likely see her off the pace today with her speed tempered so even though she is a G1 winner, leaning against major involvement as she does not appear to have made the step forward that some of the other fillies have in here have in their 3-year-old season.

High Heels: When she is on her game her rally is something to see as she simply rockets toward the front; while she certainly handled the Oaklawn surface this spring, the trip to New Orleans did not work out and she has had a mixed bag of results locally; has never missed hitting the board here and she has been training as well as she did in Hot Springs so we may just see her on her 'A' game; plenty to root for with her likeable connections and while sentiment sometimes gets the way of wise decisions at the windows, leaning her way for the win.

Octave: Continued to show a preference toward running second versus winning in the Ashland when she simply got outkicked on the up and up while odds-on; granted the pace could have been quicker that day and she does not have to deal with the winner again but Mistical and Anna have each had her number before; pace promises to be livelier today but she has repeatedly found a way to get beat so with the public coming back for more and pounding her on tote again, seeking better value on top.

Cotton Blossom: Appears to have bumped her head on a Beyer ceiling lately in the low 80 range and it may take a little more to do the job today; she is another who got beat at odds-on last time as she proved no match for High Heels in the run down the lane; J R moves to the other Pletcher charge Octave as Gomez stays with Rags which is not a ringing endorsement although perhaps they are just trying to shake things up as Prado certainly no fall off in the saddle; contenders already starting to get a little crowded and have to start trimming somewhere so going against this one.

Grace Happens: Big price in the Ashland and unlike Dawn, she ran to that price in beating only two; behind that same foe in the Honeybee as well as an optional test at Oaklawn with a thumping in the Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds sandwiched between; Lukas dangerous as he proved in the Derby Trail last weekend; if almost anyone else where sending this non two winner out, she would be an immediate toss but even considering her connections, difficult to make even a small case for.

Dreaming of Anna: Returns to the scene of her biggest triumph to date in the BC juvie which could provide a much needed boost to her sophomore season which while not a bust, has been substandard to what we were accustomed to last year; might just be a case of a precocious 2-year-old not making the successful transition to sophomore status as she would not be the first that it has happened to; bullet work last week to prepare for this but she was training forwardly down south before those two beats at odds-on; another high profiler that it might be wise to work around.

Swift Temper: Going to try Heels again after the two episodes in Hot Springs and that foe is not her only worry as she also was not close to Dawn on the grass at Fair Grounds or Autobahn here in that one turn mile last fall; big late kick probably better suited for the recently concluded Keeneland meeting over the synthetic which was playing that way than the Derby Eve surface which will probably be on the quick side; then again, there is the wet forecast which may play right into her strong suit; must consider in the mud.

Tough Tiz's Sis: Has not done much wrong since coming under Baffert's care but they have also treating her rather carefully with just a couple of optionals and a trip to the desert where she was supposed to win; that lack of serious seasoning is not to be taken lightly as at least a few in there have been to the wars and back; still have to like her running style which is toward the front which means she is in front of most in this large field and traffic will undoubtedly be an issue for some; tough call but sometimes there is no substitute for experience, or the lack of it.

Autobahn Girl: Looks like she lost interest after trying Cotton in Florida which put an end to that run of victories; some time to freshen after that rather tough run of three races in a row; ran pretty well off her last layoff of similar duration although this in a whole different ballgame; her running style has varied but she appears to have evolved into more of a stalking type with mixed results; couple of previous local starts not bad but the big thing with her might be track condition as she is perfect in the exacta in the off going.

Rags to Riches: Best of the West comes in off time away although she has been in the state for some time; curious then that we did not see her in the Ashland although the barn did have the odds-on fave in Octave; not all who come back east are successful but she appears to be in ideal shape to sit just off the pace and make her run into the lane which she did so well last time; comes in without a work over the surface since all three of Pletcher's fillies shipped Tuesday so she will have nothing more than a leg stretching gallop over it; huge Mud Tomlinson indicates an off track will not affect her much; 5-2 a little hard to take in this deep field but you have to use her.

Sealy Hill: Perfect over the synthetic but two blemishes over conventional dirt, including one beat at odds-on; all out to hold on last time after two months off and she looked a little like a bit of a short horse so perhaps she will be tighter for this; not an overwhelming amount of early speed and there is going to be a considerable amount of jockeying (pun intended) for position early and this one showed enough early lick in that one turn miler at the Gulf to perhaps try for the front; one of several in here who may outrun their price.

Mistical Plan: As is discussing the filly to this one's inside, some decisions are going to have to be made quickly in the early stages of this busy field and if this one falls out of there on top, Flores likely will have little choice but to go on with it; that may not be a bad thing since she pulled off the wire job in New Orleans two back when they let her go; tired after showing the way in the Ashland but this is a whole 'nother ballgame today over a different surface; taking a stand with her for the wire job.

High Again: Completes the deepest Oaks field in recent memory and could very well slide off at double digits on tote despite looking so good in Florida earlier in the year; Ashland try not all bad with some trouble in the second turn plus she may not have handled the synthetic having never even worked over it; she is perfect in the mud herself so the possible off going is not likely to hinder her; there are worse options than taking a Mott charge who is returning to conventional dirt.