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Old 04-30-2018, 11:45 AM
CJ4iowastate CJ4iowastate is offline
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OAKS and DERBY who you got

Oaks Midnight Bisou or Monomoy Girl. Think they are both much better than the rest.

Derby
Justify, Audible, My boy Jack, Mendelson my top 4 today.

WHO YOU GOT?
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Old 04-30-2018, 03:13 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The betting favorite has now won the race five years in a row. The previous high was four in a row from 1972 to 1975.


Nine of the last 32 favorites have won the race, a 28% win clip. 17 of the 32 landed in the money (53%).


From 1980 to 1999 no Derby favorite won, a span of 20 years of beaten favorites.


Since 1900, post position #5 has produced 14 winners – the most of any position.


The shortest price winning favorite in the Kentucky Derby since 1960 was Seattle Slew, who returned just $3.00 to win in 1977.


While favorites have dominated in recent years, we have seen two recent $100+ winners — Giacomo in 2005 paying $102.60 and Mine That Bird who returned his backers $103.20 in 2009.


While the favorites won the last five years, the exotics still paid well. The last five exactas with the favorites winning paid $336, $31, $75, $340 and $982.


The highest exacta payoff ever was in 2005, Giacomo and Closing Argument combining for a $2 payoff of $9,814.80.


The $1 superfecta with Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex-Don’t Get Mad in 2005 paid a record $864,253.80.


Seven of the last nine Derby winners had at least three starts as a two-year-old. The lone exceptions were Animal Kingdom (2011) and Always Dreaming (2017), who each started twice as a juvenile.


The last six Derby winners have had at least five total starts, California Chrome with the most with 10.


Apollo, who won the 1882 edition, is the only winner not to have raced as a two-year-old. 61 horses have tried it since 1937, none winning. Bodemeister did run second in 2012 and last year Battle of Midway was third.


The record of horses in the Derby without a race as a two-year-old since 1937 is 61-0-3-5. Justify and Magnum Moon attempt to break the Apollo Curse this year.


Nyquist (2016) became just the second horse to win both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Run for the Roses. Street Sense ended the “Juvenile Jinx” in 2007. Good Magic looks to make it three this year.


Since Seattle Slew in 1977, we have had four undefeated horses win the Kentucky Derby — Smarty Jones (2004), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008) and Nyquist (2016). Justify and Magnum Moon come into this year’s edition undefeated.


Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) was the biggest auction price among Derby winners at $4 million. Among the recent Derby winners that were bargains include I’ll Have Another ($11,000), Mine That Bird ($9,500) and Real Quiet ($17,000). Mendelssohn is this year’s pricey contender, sold at auction for $3 million.


The Florida Derby is the leading prep, producing 24 winners including the last two. Other key races are the Blue Grass (23), Champagne (23), Hopeful (20) and Wood (20). Horses exiting the UAE Derby, won by Mendelssohn this year, are 0-for-13.


The last winner to take the Derby field gate to wire was War Emblem in 2002. Before that it was the filly Winning Colors in 1988.


The last seven Derby winners all won their final prep race. The last not to was Super Saver in 2010 who was beaten just a neck in the Arkansas Derby (G2).


The two active trainers with the most wins at four are Bob Baffert with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002) and American Pharoah (2015) and D. Wayne Lukas who saddled Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999). They both have starters this year.


Lukas and Todd Pletcher lead all trainers in total number of Derby starters with 48. Pletcher has won twice, with Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017).


Steve Asmussen leads all active trainers in most starters without a Derby win (18-0-2-2).


Four active jockeys each have three Derby wins — Gary Stevens (3-for-22), Kent Desormeaux (3-for-21), Calvin Borel (3-for-12) and Victor Espinoza (3-for-9).


The active jockey with the most mounts without a Derby victory is Corey Nakatani (0-for-18).
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Old 04-30-2018, 04:24 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Good Magic is the public steam horse this year


No UAE Derby winner has been single-digit odds (Essence of Dubai was 10-1 in 2002) or finished better than 6th (China Visit in 2000). Mendelssohn will likely be the first sent off at single-digit odds.


Last year Always Dreaming became the 6th straight horse to win the Derby with a perfect record as a 3YO. This year Magnum Moon (4-for-4), Audible (2-for-2), Mendelssohn (2-for-2) and Justify (3-for-3) are the only Derby contenders who are undefeated at 3


Since Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood and the Derby in 2000, 10 of 13 Wood winners that ran in the Derby were sent off as a Top-5 betting choice – with 7 of the 13 sent off as a Top-3 choice. Just two finished in the money - Empire Maker (2nd in 2003) and Congaree (3rd in 2001).


Since 2004, the 7 Arkansas Derby winners which were a Top-3 betting choice in the Derby combined to go 7-2-1-3 with Classic Empire’s 4th place finish last year the worst of the group. Will Magnum Moon continue the trend of highly regarded Ark Derby winners to run well in Derby?


Bob Baffert has had the Derby favorite in 1998, 1999, 2001, 2010, 2012 and 2015. He's won once in those 6 years (American Pharaoh 2015). Bodemeister ran 2nd as the favorite in 2012.
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Old 05-02-2018, 03:54 PM
ricky rick ricky rick is offline
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Midnight Boisu (Mike Smith) in the Oaks

Bolt D`Oro in the Derby (Victor Espinoza)
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2018: C.Mall Breeders cup handicapping champion
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Old 05-02-2018, 04:49 PM
soonerkent soonerkent is offline
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Hofburg in the Derby
Rayya in the Oaks
Exotics are going to be massive in Derby or so I hope.....
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Old 05-03-2018, 03:49 PM
livejive livejive is offline
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6 & 11 derby...but looks like good amount of rain so dont like it as much
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