Ponies Newsletter and Picks 12/17

[ZoomVT]

Jack, we did this the summer of last year and i dont remember if we put it here or in the main newsletter section. i figure it is more appropiate here, but feel free to move it if you wish.

[ZoomVT]

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to catch winners at Hawthorne, but it isn't child's play either. By using computer technology, TrackMaster raw data and handicapping wisdom, you can make money at this game. We're going to do our darndest to send you home a happy winner at the end of the day. Tell them to pull up the armored truck!



Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 3 - #4 TANNA GOLD (ML=7/2)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 9 - #5 ANDI GATO GO (ML=15/1)






Hawthorne - Race #1 - Post: 1:35pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#1 CART LITE (ML=6/1)
#5 CHANTILLY SLEW (ML=5/1)


CART LITE - Jock hops right back aloft after getting to know the magnificent animal by riding in the last race. That's always a big time angle. A wise man taught me to play the lone speed horse. Take a look at this horse. CHANTILLY SLEW - This beautiful animal should be rumbling down the lane.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 STEP SISTER (ML=5/2), #2 LIGHTHOUSE DANCER (ML=4/1), #6 DEBU (ML=9/2),

STEP SISTER - Thoroughbred ran a great speed fig in the last race, but that was on a track listed as good. LIGHTHOUSE DANCER - This mount just hasn't looked sharp recently. The speed figs are going downward. I'm not throwing a few bucks at this racer off of that trend. DEBU - Hard to play any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 CART LITE is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip




Hawthorne - Race #2 - Post: 2:04pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#6 GAMBLERONTHELAKE (ML=3/1)
#1A SASSY SHORE BREEZE (ML=9/2)
#2 JANE'S GOLD (ML=5/1)
#3 CAMERA READY (ML=8/1)


GAMBLERONTHELAKE - Another way to identify class is earnings per start. This thoroughbred has the topmost in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish line. SASSY SHORE BREEZE - Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to her last clash at Hawthorne where she ran fifth on a sloppy track. Should improve this time around. JANE'S GOLD - This filly is in good form. Ended up second on November 28th. Rider hops up aloft after getting to know the thoroughbred by riding last time out. That's always a positive sign. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. CAMERA READY - I like that last race on November 28th at Hawthorne where she finished third.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JAN'S TROPHY (ML=4/1), #1 TAKENBYTHEBREEZE (ML=9/2), #5 SHESAFELLOW (ML=6/1),

JAN'S TROPHY - Speed kills. Plenty of speed in this race compromises this equine's chances. A bit of a less than stellar try when this filly finished fifth. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued contestant. TAKENBYTHEBREEZE - All sorts of crazy zip signed up for this clash. Little chance for this speed merchant. SHESAFELLOW - Awfully tough to bet on this runner when she hasn't been showing any signs of life recently.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Just say 'no' to the win bets this race

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **



Hawthorne - Race #3 - Post: 2:32pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#4 TANNA GOLD (ML=7/2)


TANNA GOLD - Not much speed in this race other than this steed. The April 5th race at Hawthorne was at a class level of (81). Dropping down the class scale a significant amount, so he should be in a good position.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 HURRICANE VAMP (ML=3/1), #6 TIMELESS FACTS (ML=4/1), #3 KNOTHEAD WILL (ML=9/2),

HURRICANE VAMP - November 23rd is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. TIMELESS FACTS - This gelding hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in sprint contests. I find it hard to bet on him in this race. This horse hasn't shown much effort in the last couple of contests. KNOTHEAD WILL - Don't believe this entrant is worth 9/2 in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - TANNA GOLD - When a thoroughbred has the upper hand over the rest of the field in TM Power Rating, I make a bet.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #4 TANNA GOLD to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with 3

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip




Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 3:01pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#7 C C ON THE ROCKS (ML=3/1)
#2 SKY HIGH SPIRIT (ML=6/1)
#8 GREATEST STAR (ML=8/1)


C C ON THE ROCKS - Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a good effort in the last race within the last month or so. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the capability to make her presence felt. This horse is utmost in EPS (earnings per start). She looks strong in today's contest. This filly registered a good speed rating of 48 in her last race. That figure should be lofty enough to score this time out. SKY HIGH SPIRIT - Horse's last race was at Hawthorne in a race with a class figure of 63. Dropping a significant amount in class rating today puts her in a solid position right here. GREATEST STAR - The Nov 12th event at Hawthorne was at a class level of (64). Dropping to a lower class level considerably, so she should be in a good position. The recent bullet 102.6 work should put this filly on track for today's outing. Forgive the out of the top three finish on the off track last race out. Without the crummy track conditions, has a chance today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BARASSIE PASS (ML=4/1), #6 FANTASTIC SECRET (ML=6/1),





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 C C ON THE ROCKS to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,7,8] with [2,7,8] with [1,2,5,7,8] with [1,2,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36




Hawthorne - Race #5 - Post: 3:29pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#2 GO GERT GO (ML=6/1)
#4 THAT'S A STORY (ML=5/1)
#6 DOUBLE SWIRL (ML=15/1)


GO GERT GO - I like the fact that this filly's last fig, 84, is tops in this group. This filly is certainly on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 59, 76, 84 last three out. THAT'S A STORY - Possibly a peak effort for this mare today. Been getting closer and the finish with each recent start. Already raced against today's M/L favorite on Dec 4th at Hawthorne and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe she can do it again right here. Recent Equibase speed figs show strong pattern of improvement. DOUBLE SWIRL - Last time out at Hawthorne this animal finished ahead of today's morning line choice. Potential play if the public follows the oddsmaker's morning line. Look at this pattern of improvement. 54/64/79 are the last three speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TOUCH OF CREME (ML=4/1), #8 CONGA (ML=9/2), #3 ROSE FEVER (ML=6/1),

TOUCH OF CREME - This animal just hasn't looked ready recently. Notched a mediocre rating last time around the track in an $8,000 Claiming race on December 4th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. CONGA - Just don't figure that she is priced right at the likely odds. ROSE FEVER - This mare is always around, but just doesn't win. Hard to invest in her on the win end.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 GO GERT GO to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,6] with [2,4,6] with [2,4,6,7,8] with [2,4,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36




Hawthorne - Race #6 - Post: 3:58pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#5 HIGHNESS (ML=5/1)
#6 ROSE PRINCESS (ML=7/2)
#3 GREAT SQUAWK (ML=9/2)
#2 CHANTILLY LADY (ML=6/1)


HIGHNESS - A mare like this one, almost always in-the-money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. ROSE PRINCESS - Last race Dec 4th was pretty strong for an Allowance race so this filly's race wasn't all that bad. I like a thoroughbred that manages to hit the board as often as this filly. Almost always in the money so don't leave her out of your exotic bets. This filly is in nice form, having run a nice race on December 4th, finishing second. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should run well today. The recent speed figure of 95 is the top last race speed fig in the field. GREAT SQUAWK - Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a solid contest on Dec 4th. Generally accepted handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Today's the day. CHANTILLY LADY - Last time around the track, finished seventh on the soft turf at Hawthorne. Will do better in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CHORAGUS (ML=3/1), #8 MS MANIPULATOR (ML=8/1),

CHORAGUS - I find it hard to play any thoroughbred in a sprint affair at 3/1 when she hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last sixty days. MS MANIPULATOR - This filly notched a speed rating in her last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 HIGHNESS is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip




Hawthorne - Race #7 - Post: 4:26pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#4 MARIMAR LIGHT (ML=5/1)
#5 QUEEN STELL (ML=6/1)
#1 RAINBOW'S SECRET (ML=6/1)


MARIMAR LIGHT - Took a class drop last time around the track at Hawthorne. Pierce keeps her at the same level in this event. I think that's a good move. QUEEN STELL - This mare is in top condition right now. Ended up second last race out and comes back rapidly. Multiple victories over the surface right here at Hawthorne. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle in this race. Racing at a similar level as last race on December 3rd at Hawthorne. I think Kirby has found a good spot for her, and I like her chances today. RAINBOW'S SECRET - Wade and Dorris perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +252 ROI for a jockey and trainer. This filly is in exceptional condition right now. Ended up second last time out and comes back soon.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 MY CALICO (ML=4/1), #9 FRANCES SLAM (ML=9/2), #8 SUMMER RECITAL (ML=8/1),

MY CALICO - This mare is always in the mix, but just doesn't win. Difficult to play her on the front end. Can't really back the favorite when she has multiple failures as the public's choice. SUMMER RECITAL - This horse doesn't win here at Hawthorne. She needs an alternative type of track to show her best. Hasn't been doing anything at all recently. This filly earned a speed figure in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #4 MARIMAR LIGHT on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass




Hawthorne - Race #8 - Post: 4:54pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#6 RED CHILL (ML=7/2)
#9 WATCH PAT (ML=6/1)
#8 PROFESSOR HENNESSY (ML=9/2)


RED CHILL - Gelding won at this class and distance on Oct 8th at Hawthorne. Perez and Bettis partnered together are a railbird's friend. Bettis drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to believe this one has a good chance at this level. WATCH PAT - Emigh comes to ride after getting to know the colt in the last event. Have to make this colt a strong challenger; he comes off a good outing on Nov 28th. PROFESSOR HENNESSY - Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the ability to make his presence felt. You'll be generating money right and left by turning your racing money onto this jock/trainer combination. Sukie is reunited today with this horse after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 ALL IN SLEW (ML=6/1), #2 FLATTEST (ML=8/1), #3 SONNY SIXKILLER (ML=8/1),

ALL IN SLEW - Hasn't been doing anything at all recently. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will make a winning move today. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's class figure. FLATTEST - Could be tough for this animal to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the questionable contenders list. SONNY SIXKILLER - This less than sharp equine hasn't been near the victor at the finish lately.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #6 RED CHILL to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [6,8,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[6,8,9] with [6,8,9] with [3,6,7,8,9] with [3,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36




Hawthorne - Race #9 - Post: 5:22pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#13 WINDS DUE EAST (ML=5/1)
#5 ANDI GATO GO (ML=15/1)


WINDS DUE EAST - This rider and trainer have a favorable ROI when they are put together. Recent speed figs show solid pattern of improvement. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. ANDI GATO GO - Jock jumped on this filly's back for the first time on November 28th. Should 'know' the horse even better in today's contest. Entered last at Hawthorne in a race with a class number of 76. Dropping a significant amount in class figure in today's event puts her in a solid position in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 VIVA BLALOCK (ML=4/1), #3 SPILLOVER (ML=5/1), #8 SCOOTINIT (ML=6/1),

VIVA BLALOCK - This chalk horse may be out of condition without any recent morning drills. The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this racer as a vulnerable competitor. SPILLOVER - Most unsatisfactory speed figure last out at Hawthorne at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this steed will improve too much today. SCOOTINIT - 6/1 is not worth the risk for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance clash lately.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #13 WINDS DUE EAST to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[ZoomVT]

Okay. They're racing at Hollywood Park on a Wednesday and you want to know which horses are going to win. Okay again - We are going to help you. No guarantees though. You know, bet with your head and not over it. My friend and I have carefully analyzed the races as well as one can in advance, and below give you the best lessons we know how to dish out. You can go get the past performances yourself (preferably from TrackMaster) and check us out, or just use what you see below and save all of the effort. We take so many various things into account, other than the stuff that happens at the last minute. So saddle up and enjoy the ride. Hopefully you will end the day with a few more bucks than you began it.



Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 1 - #4 TOPANGA LOVE (ML=4/1)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 4 - #2 COMPANY SECRET (ML=12/1)






Hollywood Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#4 TOPANGA LOVE (ML=4/1)


TOPANGA LOVE - I'm looking forward to this thoroughbred to run a big race in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ONE VOTE (ML=7/5), #3 OUR MAN LUKE (ML=5/2), #6 COLD RULER (ML=5/1),

ONE VOTE - This pony ran a mediocre rating last time out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose in today's event running that fig. OUR MAN LUKE - This mount hasn't been close at the finish line lately. COLD RULER - Don't think this runner has what it takes to win in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 TOPANGA LOVE to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None




Hollywood Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:01pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#6 KIELBASA (ML=2/1)
#3 MAJ. TROUBLE (ML=4/1)
#2 SOLO PERFORMANCE (ML=5/2)


KIELBASA - Gryder rode this animal for the first time last out and comes right back in this race. You'll be making money right and left by turning your betting money onto this rider/conditioner combination. This pony coming off a strong race in the last 30 days is a contender in my opinion. MAJ. TROUBLE - This gelding is in fine condition. Finished third on Nov 21st. SOLO PERFORMANCE - When the real running starts, this gelding should be finishing best of all. This gelding is in superb form right now. Ran fourth last time around the track and comes back quickly. Came home fast in the last race at Hollywood Park. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PROTECTOROFALLEVIL (ML=4/1), #5 AFLEET BUD (ML=8/1), #4 ORIENTATION HALL (ML=8/1),

PROTECTOROFALLEVIL - If he goes off anywhere near the morning line odds of 4/1, I'll have to pass. AFLEET BUD - He had to show me more against that weaker field in the last race on November 27th to get my support today. ORIENTATION HALL - This gelding didn't do too much last time. This animal likes to land in the top three, but doesn't usually finish first. Leave out of the top spot.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Not really a race for win bets

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6




Hollywood Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:32pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#2 IT'S PARTYTIME (ML=5/2)
#8 THERE GOES GEE GEE (ML=3/1)


IT'S PARTYTIME - Sherlock brings her right back. I advise you stay with this hot filly. Stra and Sherlock perform well when they unite. It's hard to beat a +281 return on investment for a rider and handler. A repeat of that most recent race on Nov 27th where she registered a speed figure of 80 looks good enough to score in this event. THERE GOES GEE GEE - This filly should give a strong account of herself in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LEGS ELEVEN (ML=4/1), #1 SWEETWATERWIND (ML=5/1), #7 STRAPLESS (ML=5/1),

LEGS ELEVEN - This runner will probably be near the rear of the pack as this field crosses the wire. SWEETWATERWIND - Difficult to wager on this vulnerable equine this time around. Make her show you something in a short distance race before you play her in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. STRAPLESS - A sustainer like this one needs a speed battle to set things up and she isn't likely to get one this time. This horse hasn't shown much effort in the last pair of races.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 IT'S PARTYTIME is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None




Hollywood Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:04pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#2 COMPANY SECRET (ML=12/1)
#4 EARLY ANNA (ML=3/1)
#8 MAMITA CHULA (ML=8/1)


COMPANY SECRET - Rode this animal on November 28th and Carter is yet again in the irons this time. Carter and Martinez partnered together are a handicapper's friend. This filly is in fine physical condition, having run a nice race on Nov 28th, finishing first. Looking at the PPs, it shows this filly has won at big odds. Just see her most recent rating, 97. That one looks good in this field. EARLY ANNA - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. MAMITA CHULA - Delgadillo comes to get aboard after getting to know the mare in the last contest. Tekos brings this mare back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his mare is on top of her game. Another way to judge class is earnings per race entered. This horse has the highest in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish line. Good trainers run fit horses. The fact that Tekos worked this mare at a long distance tells me this one should be ready today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 I LOVE CHARLEY (ML=5/2), #7 JU JU BABY (ML=7/2), #5 PIRATE'S CHARM (ML=4/1),

I LOVE CHARLEY - Showed very little in the last race. Really no reason to expect a reversal of fortune today. JU JU BABY - Hard to wager on these non-winning types at less than generous odds. PIRATE'S CHARM - Hard to keep following this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Common rating last race out at Hollywood Park at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this entrant will improve too much in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 COMPANY SECRET is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,8] with [2,4,8] with [2,3,4,7,8] with [2,3,4,7,8] Total Cost: $36




Hollywood Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:35pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#2 GINOBILI (ML=7/2)
#1 SWIFT DEMAND (ML=5/1)
#7 TIZ BODACIOUS (ML=4/1)
#8 SCANDALOUS (ML=5/1)


GINOBILI - Rider jumped on this gelding's back for the first time on Nov 30th. Should be in touch with the equine even better in today's contest. I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This gelding fits the bill. This gelding is in top form right now. Ran second last out and comes back quickly. Had a strong closing move in the last race, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar performance today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. SWIFT DEMAND - Sadler is solid in turf sprints. This animal should have no excuses if he doesn't win. Always watch out for the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Widely used angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Today could be the day. Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. TIZ BODACIOUS - He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. I seem to always make money betting Sadler horses on the grass. That barn has a powerful win percent for this distance/surface. The ROI when Rosario and Sadler hook up is fantastic. This gelding is tops in earnings per race. Check out this one in the post parade. Last time around the track, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A good sign he can close well, and should be right there at the end today. This gelding's last speed rating garnered on Oct 31st is utmost in last race speed ratings. SCANDALOUS - Colt shipped to this track and won; now goes for back-to-back wins. This colt likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter distance and should aid his chances of winning. This colt should find these state breds easier than what he faced in his last event on November 16th. A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a nice contest is a good signal. Colt is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a nice effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DEVOTED MAGIC (ML=5/2), #4 JUST CHARMED (ML=6/1),

DEVOTED MAGIC - The speed figs continue to fall, 116/105/94. Not a positive signal. JUST CHARMED - Finished first in his most recent effort with a disappointing speed figure. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - GINOBILI - This is an automatic bet for me. This gelding is the top TM Power-rated horse and his rating towers over the rest.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Just say 'no' to the win bets this race

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None




Hollywood Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:05pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#3 WARREN'S LADY SLEW (ML=5/2)
#2 LU BATON (ML=3/1)
#4 SORRY BABY (ML=6/1)


WARREN'S LADY SLEW - This filly is in nice condition. Finished second on November 19th. Working out regularly the last two weeks. Should be in good condition for this affair. LU BATON - This filly is in fine form, having run a nice race on Nov 19th, finishing third. Have to like the way Baffert has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. SORRY BABY - Always beware of the longer priced equine when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 GOT TOBE RIO (ML=2/1), #6 CASUAL ENCOUNTER (ML=6/1), #5 SUGAREE GOLD (ML=8/1),

GOT TOBE RIO - There's early zip, early speed, and more early zip in this affair. Doesn't look too promising for this horse. CASUAL ENCOUNTER - Pace makes the race. Tough for this early speedster to be able to deal with the pressured pace from the rest of this group. When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to garner a better rating than last out to compete in this dirt sprint. SUGAREE GOLD - Awfully tough to bet on any thoroughbred that just won a Maiden Claimer, then steps up to face winners. This filly notched a speed fig in her last race which probably isn't good enough today.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 SORRY BABY to win if we can get at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6




Hollywood Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#2 ONE TRACK MIND (ML=5/1)
#3 DADSALITTLEUNUSUAL (ML=3/1)
#8 NIMA'S PAD (ML=5/2)
#6 PEACHY CANYON (ML=6/1)


ONE TRACK MIND - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this gelding's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. Gelding scored his last race here on October 31st as a shipper. I think he looks like a winner once again. When Pedroza and Bernstein team up on horses the ROI has been fabulous at +49. This gelding notched a strong speed fig of 104 in his last affair. That speed figure should be high enough to score today. DADSALITTLEUNUSUAL - I sense a pace scenario where the early speed will come back to the field, setting up a perfect situation for his late kick. Comes out of a last contest against 'open' company on December 6th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. This gelding is in exceptional form right now. Ran third last time around the track and comes back promptly. NIMA'S PAD - Bejarano rode this thoroughbred for the first time last race out and comes right back today. Faces state bred foes today after finishing first versus 'open' company on November 28th. I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a good outing within the last thirty days. PEACHY CANYON - Faces state bred foes today after finishing first versus 'open' company on November 21st. Look at this gelding's PP lines. With each event he keeps getting closer. This gelding is in nice form. Finished first on Nov 21st.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NITRO ACTIVE (ML=6/1), #1 CARONA TIME (ML=6/1),

NITRO ACTIVE - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when examining the most recent efforts. Sophomore versus the older ones for the first time is a tough one. Have to see this effort first. CARONA TIME - Hard to take this horse at this price after the result (sixth) in the last race. This gelding recorded a speed fig in his last clash which likely isn't good enough in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 ONE TRACK MIND to win if we can get at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip




Hollywood Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:05pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#8 ISLAND RUN (ML=6/1)
#3 HE'S REALLY BIG (ML=15/1)
#4 BARTOK'S MAGIC (ML=5/1)


ISLAND RUN - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this gelding's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. Always be wary of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. Trainer, Jones, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. I believe the addition of blinkers today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing. HE'S REALLY BIG - After the event aboard this animal on November 23rd, the jock is going to know the colt much better. Very often a thoroughbred who worked from the gate since his last race, and adds blinkers for today's race, shows a big improvement in performance. Gryder and Becerra partnered up are a punter's friend. BARTOK'S MAGIC - Faces state bred foes today after finishing fourth versus 'open' company on November 28th. Jockey hops back atop after getting to know the horse by riding in the last race. That's always a good tip. Ran a quick time for the last quarter on Nov 28th at Hollywood Park. Anything close right here should get the job done.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI (ML=5/2), #7 RISE ABOVE (ML=3/1), #5 MARKUS D. (ML=4/1),

JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI - Placed much too far in the rear in the early part of the last route clash will probably make it tough to make a mark today in this sprint race. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this animal as a possibly overvalued contestant. RISE ABOVE - Doubtful that this horse will finish better than he did last time out when placing fifth. Will be tough for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list. MARKUS D. - Not easy to play any entrant in a sprint event if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #8 ISLAND RUN to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[ZoomVT]

Tampa Bay - Race #9 - Post: 4:07pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#7 CHIEF TALKEETNA (ML=4/1)
#8 MR. FLATTER (ML=7/2)
#4 MCLOVIN (ML=8/1)


CHIEF TALKEETNA - A little change in scenery has got to do this horse well. Reading the past performances, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle at different tracks. I like this gelding a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. This horse's record for this distance is strong. Ranks at the top in earnings per race entered. A dominant outing in today's race can augment the lifetime bankroll. MR. FLATTER - I believe that this race's shorter distance should help this colt. Three consecutive improved speed figs (85-88-91) make this thoroughbred a powerful contender. MCLOVIN - Last race out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A pretty good sign he can close well, and should be right there at the finish in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 GREELEY'S VOICE (ML=2/1), #5 ROTHESAY (ML=6/1),

GREELEY'S VOICE - Don't believe this runner will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was disappointing when compared with today's Equibase class figure. ROTHESAY - Really don't think the recent speed figure was garnered legitimately. The wet track may have lead to such a high rating.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #7 CHIEF TALKEETNA on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[4,7,8] with [4,7,8] with [2,4,6,7,8] with [2,4,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36




Tampa Bay - Race #10 - Post: 4:34pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#9 WINK ANDA BLESSING (ML=7/2)
#10 BOSTON WEST END (ML=15/1)


WINK ANDA BLESSING - Slomkowski drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more knowledge to figure that this one is in a good spot at this level. BOSTON WEST END - In the last race, finished fifth in the slop at Suffolk Downs. Will most certainly do better in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ATSATSUKI (ML=3/1), #4 RUSH TO DINNER (ML=4/1), #12 DOCTOR GARRETT (ML=8/1),

ATSATSUKI - I think this chalk horse needs this race under his belt to start getting back into shape. Improbable that the rating he garnered on August 20th will be enough in this event. RUSH TO DINNER - This gelding has already been defeated as the chalk back to back. Hard to give him another chance. DOCTOR GARRETT - 8/1 odds isn't enough for this one when examining the most recent efforts. This questionable contender ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#9 WINK ANDA BLESSING to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [9,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass