The Preakness

[The Tin Man]

Let me start by saying that over the years a very large percentage of Preakness winners have come out of the Kentucky Derby. I don't know the exact percentage but I know it's large. This stat which is hard to go against will have a strong bearing on my picks for the Preakness. Just like the Derby, stack the odds in your favor and you are much better off. By the way, I did not like Giacomo in the Derby but if you followed all the statistics I posted in my thread about the Derby, He was one of about 10 horses who fell into the mold.
10 of the 14 horses today raced in the Derby. Of the 4 that didn't (#1 Malibu Moonshine, #5 Scrappy T, #6 Hal's Image, and #8 Galloping Grocer) I think the only one who has a shot at even finishing in the money is
#5 Scrappy T - Lost to Bellamy Road by 18+ lengths and you know what he did in the Derby.
#2 High Fly - Burned himself out in the Derby and finished 10th. Has a shot in a speed favoring Preakness.
#3 Noble Causeway - Checked early in the Derby but was ahead of Giacomo when they turned for home and didn't do a thing.
#4 Greeley's Galaxy - Couldn't get out of the gate at the Derby and seems to be going through a Trainer and Jockey carousel.
#7 Closing Argument - Bobbled start in Derby, rushed up to be within 4 lengths for a very torrid pace and still had enough left to close and almost win. The horse to beat for me.
#9 Wilko - Was back with Giacomo and didn't close a lick.
#10 Sun King - Was in the middle of the pack and faded to 15th.
#11 High Limit - Bumped early in the Derby and finished last. Unless he had a good excuse, what's he doing here. Note that Frankel is putting blinkers on. It might make a difference.
#12 Afleet Alex - As honest as they come. I think he was too close to the pace in the Derby but he did finish well.
#13 Giacomo - I don't know what to say other than I'll be using him because it seems every year the Derby winner doesn't get the respect when it comes to the Preakness and more often than not he does well.
#14 Going Wild - I really don't know what Lucas is doing here.

To sum it up.
I'll make an exacta box with Closing Argument, Afleet Alex and Giacomo.
(ex bx 7,12,13)
I'll also bet Closing Argument to win if the price is right. And might use High Limit and High Fly in exotics with Closing Argument.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[smooth53_98]

Nice analysis Tin Man.... good luck today bro!

-smooth

[The Tin Man]

Just an added NOTE......

I just got off the phone with a friend of mine who said that High Limit had trouble in the Derby with shadows on the track. Frankel is putting blinkers on and he has really good record when he uses an equipment change. High Limit could be real good price.

[Wabash Wonders]

Nice write up Tin Man... I like Closing Argument also today....

[JoeyQ1]

I was thinking about . . .

AFLEET ALEX
CLOSING ARGUMENT
HIGH FLY
HIGH LIMIT . . .

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

JQ