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Old 05-11-2018, 07:01 PM
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Lightbulb Preakness Betting Info

Cloud Computing paid $28.80 last year, just the fourth Preakness winner to pay $9.00 or more since 2001. The others were Bernardini (2006) at $27.80, Shackleford (2011) at $27.20 and Oxbow (2013) at $32.80.


The betting favorite in the Preakness has won 13 of the last 32 editions and has run second nine times. The second choice in the betting has won nine times with four running second.


Over the past 32 years, the Preakness favorite has landed in the money 24 times (78%) and in the top four 28 times (88%).


Since 2001, 13 of the 17 Preakness winners have paid $8.80 or less. Four of the winners went off at EVEN money or less.


While the Kentucky Derby has had two winners pay over $100 in the last 13 years, the top payoff in Preakness history is Master Derby, who returned $48.80 in 1975.


The betting favorite has won 72 of the 142 editions of the Preakness.


While favorites have run well, the runner-up in the Preakness can sometimes be a long shot — Cherry Wine in 2016 at +1700, Tale of Verve in 2015 at +2800, First Dude at +2300 in 2010, Macho Again at +3900 in 2008, Scrappy T at +1300 in 2005, Midway Road at +2300 in 2003 and Magic Weisner at +4500 in 2002.


In 2002, War Emblem (+250) and Magic Weisner (+4500) combined for a record $327 exacta. The 2013 exacta with Oxbow (+1300) and Itsmyluckyday (+800) returned $301.


Trainer Bob Baffert has won the second jewel of the Triple Crown six times. The record is seven held by R. Wyndham Walden. Todd Pletcher’s record in the Preakness is now 0-for-9 after last year’s Derby winner Always Dreaming was fourth in the Preakness as the beaten favorite.


Three active jockeys have won the Preakness three times — Kent Desormeaux, Gary Stevens and Victor Espinoza.


Since 1997, 10 of 21 Derby winners came back to win the Preakness. Only one (American Pharoah) went on to complete the Triple Crown.


Since 1983, only four Preakness winners did not compete in the Kentucky Derby, including last year’s winner, Cloud Computing.


Exaggerator in 2016 became the first Kentucky Derby runner-up to win the Preakness since Prairie Bayou in 2003.


Over the past 41 years, the best post positions in the Preakness have been the eight post with eight winners and the three and seven posts with six winners each. Since 1986, we have seen just four winners that have broken from the 10 post and outward.


Three of last nine Preakness winners took the field gate to wire. While the Pimlico surface has a reputation for favoring speed, stalkers and closers have fared well in the race.


The largest margin of victory in the Preakness belongs to Smarty Jones in 2004, winning by 11 ½ lengths. American Pharoah won by seven lengths in 2015, tied for sixth in largest margin of victory.


Over the last 19 years, an average of five Derby starters have returned in the Preakness. In two of the past four years, just three returned. The most to return over the past two decades was 10 in 1999 and 2005. Those Derbies were won by long shots Charismatic ($64.60) and Giacomo ($102.60).
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Old 05-14-2018, 02:07 PM
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Old 05-16-2018, 12:58 PM
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Can Good Magic best Justify this weekend?

In the last 50 years, just three Derby runners-up have won the Preakness

1990 Summer Squall / 1993 Prairie Bayou / 2016 Exaggerator
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Old 05-16-2018, 12:59 PM
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Think it’s as easy as Justify over Good Magic for the Preakness exacta?

Think again.

The last time the favorite won and the 2nd choice ran second was 1981 when favored Pleasant Colony won and 2nd choice Bold Ego ran second.
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Old 05-16-2018, 01:00 PM
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The favorite has won 9 of the last 16 Triple Crown races.

Favorites had won just 9 of the previous 31.
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Old 05-16-2018, 01:00 PM
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Look for prices in the exacta and trifecta.

In the last five years, eight of the 15 horses to finish in the Preakness trifecta were at least 10-1 and four were at least 15-1.
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Old 05-16-2018, 04:29 PM
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143rd Preakness Stakes Draw



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Old 05-16-2018, 05:31 PM
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This is what the track at Pimlico looks like right now and there’s going to be nothing but more rain all the way through Saturday




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Old 05-16-2018, 06:16 PM
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Horses To Watch ...


Favorite: Justify

A sloppy Churchill Downs track did little to slow Justify two weeks ago. The Kentucky-bred colt enjoyed an ideal trip as he sat just off the early pace before finding another gear around the far turn to take the lead for good ahead of Good Magic and Audible.

The victory allowed him to remain undefeated through four career starts. He also won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby in early April to punch his Triple Crown ticket.

Now the question is whether Justify can become the fourth horse in the past seven years to win the first two legs, joining American Pharoah, California Chrome and I'll Have Another.

Trainer Bob Baffert is confident based on the way the colt has responded.

"He looks no different than he did before the Kentucky Derby, so we're pretty happy where we are right now," he told reporters Monday. "He looks healthy. He didn't lose an ounce of weight, which is important. That’s one thing about him. The next day when I brought him out, he was so bright and full of energy, I was pretty impressed myself."

It would be intriguing to see how Justify responds if his Preakness trip includes more obstacles than the Derby, especially if he's forced to come from deep in the field. But Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith will likely ensure that doesn't happen, one of the many reasons Justify is the clear favorite.


Biggest Threat: Good Magic

Good Magic ran an inspired race in the Kentucky Derby, settling in behind Justify and staying pretty much stride-for-stride with the eventual champion until late in the race. He just couldn't find the space or kick he needed to win the Run for the Roses.

The Chad Brown trainee is no stranger to marquee races thanks to an aggressive schedule. He took on his first Grade I race last October, finishing second in the Champagne Stakes, and emerged made his first major statement with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November.

He's finished in the top three in all six of his career starts and there's no reason to believe that streak will end Saturday. Whether he can overcome Justify is a different debate.

Brown is optimistic the quick turnaround will benefit Good Magic, per Jeremy Balan of America's Best Racing.

"Both horses are going to do things they've never done before—run on two weeks' rest and run at Pimlico," he said. "We're hopeful our horse responds to that well. If you're asking how we're going to close the gap of a couple lengths, that's it."

Those comments could prove prophetic if Good Magic can gain an early edge on Justify instead of running from behind the entire race like he did in the Derby.


Long Shot: Tenfold

Tenfold didn't debut until mid-February. He made the jump to face Grade I competition in April's Arkansas Derby after winning his first two starts and didn't respond well, finishing fifth.

The fascination about his Preakness chances are based on untapped potential. He's the son of Curlin, the 2007 Preakness Stakes winner, and has continued to make positive strides in training.

Alicia Wincze Hughes of BloodHorse provided comments from trainer Steve Asmussen about his long-term belief in the colt and whether the development process has accelerated enough to succeed this week.

"Maybe just emotionally [I] really like the horse because of [the Curlin] connection and his personality, but I think he has a ton of talent," he said. "And he's going to have very good races in his future. I'm just hoping Saturday is what we're talking about and not a year from now."

Picking Tenfold to win the Preakness would be a leap of faith. He's yet to prove his talent and pedigree are actually going to produce high-end results. But the upside is there for him to steal the spotlight from Justify, Good Magic and the rest of the field at Pimlico.
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Old 05-17-2018, 06:44 PM
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Black Eyed Susan Stakes Contenders and Predictions


The 94th Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (Gr. 2) for three-year-old fillies
Friday, May 18th with a post time of 4:48 PM EST.

The $250,000 purse will attract some of the top fillies in the country and it appears that they will be dealing with a very wet and most likely very messy track due to rain in the Baltimore area over Preakness weekend. Let’s take a look at the field for the race and then I will provide some recommended wagers.


1. Tell Your Mama (20-1 ML)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Robert Hess Jr.

This maiden has been busy as this will be the 11thrace of her career which only began in September 2017. She was a distant last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly (Gr. 1) at Del Mar in November against a very talented field. She also ran fourth in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr. 2) in March, but was 15 lengths behind the winner, Coach Rocks, who is also in this field. This one looks like she is only here to fill the field. She will not be breaking her maiden in Graded Stakes company.


2. Midnight Disguise (4-1 ML)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer: Linda Rice

The question is will this filly bounce back from a disappointing fourth place finish in the Gazelle (Gr. 2) April 7that Aqueduct when she did not to appear to be the dominating force she has been in her short career. Trainer Linda Rice adds blinkers and that may keep her more focused on the task at hand. She should hit the board in this field.


3. Coach Rocks (7-2 ML)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Dale Romans

The line maker made this filly the lukewarm favorite going into this race. She is the only competitor in this field who ran two weeks ago in the Kentucky Oaks (Gr. 1) and she faded at the end of that race so she may not like the distance. The Gulfstream Oaks (Gr. 2) winner has never raced on a sloppy or muddy track which she will most likely face at Pimlico. She has a chance to hit the board if she returns to form, but I feel she is poised for another letdown.


4. Red Ruby (5-1 ML)
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Trainer: Kellyn Gorder

Another lightly raced filly who broke her maiden in November at Churchill Downs will only be running in the fifth race of her career. She failed as the favorite last out in the Honeybee Stakes (Gr. 3) at Oaklawn Park, but has been training well. She appears to be fast enough to run with this crowd and has been training well so she will be on the end of my trifecta and superfecta.


5. Mihrab (30-1 ML)
Jockey: Jevian Toledo
Trainer: Graham Motion

The ninth place finisher in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr. 2) won an optional claimer at Laurel Park by 8 lengths last out, but she is out classed in this field. She will mount a late run, but there will not be enough fading horses in this field for this one to pick up spots. She is a toss in my opinion.


6. C. S. Incharge (15-1 ML)
Jockey: Julian Leparoux
Trainer: Dale Romans

This filly finally broke her maiden after four attempts in January at Gulfstream Park. She followed that up with a win in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February and then took a two month layoff before returning a disappointing sixth in the Ashland Stakes (Gr. 1) at Keeneland on Blue Grass Stakes Day. She is not fast enough to run with this field and will not be on my tickets.


7. Indy Union (10-1 ML)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart

She has one win in six career races and that was in maiden company. She has not run a race fast enough to compete with this field, and she will not improve enough to merit wagering consideration.


8. Goodonehoney (5-1 ML)
Jockey: Steve Hamilton
Trainer: Jason Egan

This will only be the third career race for this Maryland bred filly who is undefeated in her short career. She has not faced the competition that she will see in this race, but she should improve on her last performance as this will only be the third start of her short career. She will try to go to the lead, but the more experienced riders will rate behind her and wait to make their move as she starts to fade.


9. Sara Street (4-1 ML)
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Another lightly raced filly, but this one has shown dramatic improvement in each of her starts and appears to be the one to beat in this field for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. She was the runner-up to Midnight Disguise in the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct on March 3rdand then followed that up with a tough run in the Gazelle Stakes (Gr. 2) at Aqueduct on April 7th. If she improves on either of those efforts, which I expect, she will have this field chasing but not catching her.


10.Stakes on a Plane (20-1 ML)
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
Trainer: Jeff Talley

Great name, not a great horse though. This one has finished behind most of horses in this field and has shown no improvement in her career. She is adding Lasix for the first time, but that will not be enough to make her competitive in this field. She is a complete toss.




If we can get anywhere near the 4-1 Morning Line on Sara Street I will be betting her to win this race. I recommend a laddered betting structure using 15% of your Win-Place-Show budget for the race as a Win wager. 25% of your WPS budget for the Place wager and the remaining 60% as a Show wager. Normally I do not recommend Show betting as the pools are not deep enough to make Show wagers profitable, but on bigger days you can turn a profit in the Show pool.


Let’s also bet an exacta part-wheel using 9. Sara Street and 2. Midnight Disguise on top. We will use both of those entries in the second spot along with 3. Coach Rocks and 4. Red Ruby in the second position. Tell the teller, Pimlico Race 11, Exacta 2 and 9 with 2, 3, 4 and 9. This will cost you $12 on a $2 exacta wager.


We will key Sara Street on top in a trifecta wager, and then use the other three horses in our exacta wager in the second position. We will use the same three in the third position so tell your teller Pimlico Race 11, trifecta 9 with 2, 3, and 4 with 2, 3, and 4. A $1 trifecta will cost you $12 using this structure.
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Old 05-17-2018, 06:51 PM
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Plays from Against the Number ...

Against the Number is a community of licensed Bookmakers and odds makers, professional sports handicappers, sports writers and sports enthusiasts.



Black Eyed Susan Day



Race 7 Grade III Miss Preakness

Almond Rocco (8): Toss her last on turf and she would be coming into this with two dominating efforts and the one to beat. She has a great outside stalking post to sit and pounce.

Lezendary (6): Turned the corner when finally breaking her maiden in January, another step forward shes a big player in here.

Good Move (9): Comes in off two dominating efforts and will be heavily supported at the window. This will be a class test.


Race 8

7-6-2


Race 9 Grade III Pimlico Special

Hedge Fund (5): Hopped at the start in his last and while he didn’t lose many lengths, he was forced to do something he was not used to. He should be able to sit a good stalking trip in here.

Rated R Superstar (3): Was very impressive when winning the Ben Ali at Keeneland circling the field in victory and should get some pace to run at in this spot.

Irish War Cry (1): His last was too bad to think it was him and the race did not come back strong either. We will keep him on our pick 4/5 tickets but he is hard to endorse at a short price.

One Linear (2): Was good in victory second off the layoff at Keeenland and has been given about a month to recover from that race here. With the projected rain in the forecast this weekend he should have no issue handling it this will be a step up in class.


Race 10 Jim Mckay Turf Sprint

Field of Courage (2): Has some back numbers sprinting on both synthetic and turf that make him a player in this field and at a good number to boot.

Imprimis (3): He’s undefeated and looking to remain that way when entering stakes company for the first time but this isn’t exactly a field of killers.

Hogy (7): The only classy veteran is the one to beat here and will be going to routes to a sprint which is one of my favorite angles to play. Please note he carries 5 pounds more than the field.


Race 11 Black Eyes Susan

Sara Street (9): Was a very sharp move of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin to skip the Oaks and point to this easier spot where she will be fresh. The lack of speed in the race should give her a tactical edge, if she gets the rain they are predicting she will move up even further.

Red Ruby (4): Was compromised at the start of the Honeybee where she broke a little slow and was pinched back and forced off her game. She went off as a very short price in that race so we are going to give her another shot here with a clean break.

Midnight Disguise (2): Something went wrong with her in the Gazele and I like the addition of blinkers. She should be fresh coming into this and able to sit a little closer.

Coach Rocks (3): She was out classed in the Kentucky Oaks and will be better suited in this spot but I think she’s been over run at this point and needs a break before the summer campaign.


Race 12 Hiltop Stakes

ThewayIam (8): Much the one to beat in this field and should be a very short price horse. The class she’s faced in her last makes her 3/5 on paper and a logical single on the card.

Jehozacat (4): Has been much better since getting on turf and will like the stretch out back to a mile at two turns where she enjoyed success at Tampa.

Souper Striking (2): The race two back makes her a player in here but she’s more likely for the exotics then a win.


Race 13 Grade III Dupont Distaff

Blue Prize (7): A very consistent type of horse being in the money in 10 of 12 career starts, she found the winners circle last start and will be dangerous third off the layoff.

Son of Spring (5): Narrowly missed off the layoff last out when coming from the clouds. I like the switch to the aggressive rider of Ricardo Santana who will have her in the game much earlier.

Verve’s Tale (6): While she does not like to win, she’s always on the wire for a share being in the money – 15 of 19 starts and comes out of the same race as our top pick.



Race 7-11 Pick 5

6,8,9 / 2,6,7/ 1,3,5/ 2,3,7/ 2,4,9 = $121.50


Pick 4 Race 11-14

2, 4, 9/ 8 / 5,6,7 / all (14 horses) = $63



**Please note turf races are handicapped for the turf with bad weather expected you should check the conditions before wagering**
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:02 PM
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Justify tests soggy Pimlico in workout


Kentucky Derby winner Justify has gotten acquainted with the track at Pimlico Race Course, where he will attempt to keep his Triple Crown hopes alive Saturday in the Preakness.

Because the track was soaked from a heavy morning shower, trainer Bob Baffert made it easy for his undefeated chestnut colt during the Thursday morning workout.

Baffert said: ''He was just getting warmed up. He's ready to do a lot more, but we just don't want him to do too much.''

Justify showed no signs of being troubled by the heel bruise that was discovered the day after he won the Derby on May 5 by 2+ lengths.

Baffert said: ''I think it's behind us. He had that one day, but then after that he's been really good on it. I'm not really worried about it.''

The horse won in the slop at Churchill Downs, so the prediction of rain on Saturday didn't seem to bother Baffert, who said, ''This track can probably take more water than any track I've ever seen. I've seen it dry out quickly.''
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:05 PM
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Half the horses in Preakness get 1st shot



Half the participants in the eight-horse Preakness field have yet to experience the sensation of chasing Justify to the finish line.

Perhaps one of the new shooters in Saturday's race can find a way to leave the Kentucky Derby winner in his wake.

Quip, Sporting Chance, Diamond King and Tenfold skipped the Derby to focus on earning a chunk of the $1.5 million Preakness purse.

History just might be on their side.

A new shooter - a horse which runs in one of the two remaining Triple Crown races after passing up the Derby - has won the Preakness four times since 2000. Just last year, Cloud Computing paid $13.40 in an upset over Derby winner Always Dreaming.

Then again ...

''Derby runners have done well over the course of time,'' insisted W. Elliott Walden, president and CEO of racing operations for WinStar Farm, which owns Justify and Quip. ''Now is it because they're the better horses? Quite possibly that's the case. They're just the best horses of the crop and that's why they run in the Kentucky Derby.''

The finest of the newcomers this year appears to be Quip, who has three wins and a second-place showing in five career races.

''He's a really good horse. He's fast,'' Justify trainer Bob Baffert said of Quip.

Trained by Rodolphe Brisset and ridden by last year's Breeders' Cup Classic winner Florent Geroux, Quip captured the Tampa Derby in March before finishing second in the Arkansas Derby.

While unbeaten Justify comes in with just two weeks' rest - the quickest turnaround of his career - Quip enters the Preakness coming off an extended break.

''Quip is a horse that has shown quality at the highest level,'' Walden said. ''We feel like he could have run in the Kentucky Derby, but we wanted to give him a chance to catch up to himself. He's a slight-made horse we felt like would do better with the five weeks rest.''

Quip had a pair of wins last year before staggering to a seventh-place showing in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in November.

In retrospect, that might have been a turning point.

''He's changed a lot,'' Brisset said. ''After the Kentucky Jockey Club, we gave him a couple of weeks off and you could see the maturation. You still have to be a little careful when he's around too many horses, but he's way more professional.''

Well, Quip -the third choice at 12-1 - will have only seven other horses to contend with on Saturday. Two of them will be saddled by Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

Lukas brings back Bravazo, who finished sixth in the Derby, along with Sporting Chance.

Unlike the rest of the first-time Triple Crown participants, Sporting Chance is no fresher than the Derby horses. Sporting Chance (30-1) also ran at Churchill Downs on May 5, taking fourth in the Pat Day Mile.

Asked to assess the chances of both his entrants Saturday, Lukas shrugged his shoulders and saluted Justify's impressive performance at the Derby.

''I don't have a lot of confidence if he runs that same race. Let's be honest, at 82 you get more realistic,'' Lukas said. ''If he's the best horse, so be it. We'll throw the bouquets his way and salute him as a second-leg winner and go on to the Belmont. But we'll try to get the best piece of this we can.''

Tenfold (20-1) began racing this year. Sired by 2007 Preakness winner Curlin, the dark brown colt won his first two races before fading to third in the Arkansas Derby last month.

''We have a fresh horse; he's put on weight since the Arkansas Derby and he's trained really well at Churchill Downs,'' assistant trainer Scott Blasi said. ''The timing is good for us for this race.''

If the track is soggy, that would be even better. Curlin earned 2007 Horse of the Year honors after slogging to victory in the muddy Breeders' Cup Classic.

''With all this wet weather, him being a Curlin, he steps up with the sloppy track and moves forward,'' Blasi said.

Trained by John Servis, Diamond King (30-1) won the Federico Tesio Stakes at nearby Laurel Park in April. While Diamond King probably doesn't have the speed and stamina of Justify, he does trainer who won the Kentucky Derby and jockey Javier Castellano, who guided Cloud Computing to victory at last year's Preakness.

''We've got a top jockey and the horse is doing really well,'' co-owner Chuck Zacney said.

Baffert has already beaten three of the horses in the field. Though he's never faced the others, they certainly have grabbed his attention.

''You've got new shooters,'' Baffert said. ''John Servis didn't come for the crab cakes. Then you've got Quip. And Wayne? You can't count Wayne Lukas out. That's when he does the most damage, when nobody's talking about him, he's under the radar. He still knows his horses and he's up here for a reason.''
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:10 PM
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Quip


Jockey: Florent Geroux

Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset

Owners: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and SF Racing

Career record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $482,800

Earnings per start: $96,560

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99

Pedigree: Distorted Humor – Princess Ash, by Indian Charlie

Color: Bay

Running style: Press the pace


This talented colt is co-owned by WinStar Farm and China Horse Club, two of the owners of Justify, and they chose to keep him out of the Kentucky Derby and point to the Preakness, where he’ll be a fresh challenger to the Derby winner. He has run very well in both starts this year, winning the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby and running second to Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby. Quip prefers to either set or stalk the pace in his races, so it will be interesting to see how the pace scenario plays out with Justify and possibly Bravazo and/or Tenfold – will the Derby winner take command immediately against what appear to be inferior opponents, or let Quip set the early fractions after breaking from the inside post position? At any rate, this son of Distorted Humor (sire of 2003 Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide) has the best chance among the early leaders not named Justify to remain in contention into the stretch. Rodolphe Brisset makes his Preakness debut with Quip, and this will be jockey Florent Geroux’s third straight appearance.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:12 PM
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Lone Sailor


Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Owner: G M B Racing

Career record: 9 starts – 1 win – 3 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $334,237

Earnings per start: $37,137

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 106

Pedigree: Majestic Warrior – Ambitious, by Mr. Greeley

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer


After a good runner-up finish to Noble Indy in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, losing by a neck, this colt ran a decent but nonthreatening eighth in the Kentucky Derby, starting slowly and encountering a bit of traffic trouble midway through the race. He is a one-dimensional closer who will be dependent on a fast pace in the Preakness to have any shot at hitting the board. He’s also shown a propensity for poor starts in his past races. If he can get out of the starting gate well and race a little closer to midpack than before, this son of Majestic Warrior could be a good trifecta or superfecta filler at high odds. He also would benefit from a wet track as his only career win came in the slop at Saratoga last summer and he handled the soaked Churchill Downs main track in the Derby fairly well. Tom Amoss conditioned 2013 Preakness third-place finisher Mylute and has sent two other horses to the Maryland classic. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be making his first start in the Preakness.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:13 PM
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Sporting Chance


Jockey: Luis Contreras

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Owners: Robert Baker and William Mack

Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third

Career earnings: $409,790

Earnings per start: $58,541

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100

Pedigree: Tiznow – Wynning Ride, by Candy Ride

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Stalker


This colt wheels back on a two-week turnaround after finishing a well-beaten fourth in the Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by LG and E and KU on the Kentucky Derby undercard. In that race, he had to check at the five-eighths pole and then took a wide trip through the stretch. After winning two of three starts as a juvenile, including the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, Sporting Chance has not taken the next step in his four starts at age three, finishing third, fifth, fourth (disqualified from third), and then fourth again in graded stakes. He has not run poorly in any of those races but always seems to find trouble somewhere along the journey and shapes up as an outsider in the Preakness, with a third- or fourth-place finish as his ceiling. D. Wayne Lukas’ Preakness record is discussed in Bravazo’s profile. Owners Robert Baker and Earle Mack sent Hopeful Stakes winner Dublin to the 2010 Preakness, where he finished fifth. Luis Contreras has his second mount in the Preakness; he rode Social Inclusion to a third-place finish in 2014.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:15 PM
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Diamond King


Jockey: Javier Castellano

Trainer: John Servis

Owners: Cash is King, Leonard Green, and LC Racing

Career record: 6 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $222,600

Earnings per start: $37,100

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103

Pedigree: Quality Road – Akron Moon, by Malibu Moon

Color: Bay

Running style: Press the pace


This colt enters the Preakness off of a win in the Federico Tesio Stakes, which used to be held at Pimlico but has been held at Laurel Park since 2016. In the 1 1/16-mile Tesio, he stalked the pacesetter through the backstretch and far turn, shot past that foe in the stretch, and then was all out to hold off a late challenge and win by three-quarters of a length. That marked his fourth win in six career starts, and his only unplaced finish came last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs when he clipped heels early in the first turn and lost his rider. Overall, this colt appears best suited to distances that max out at seven furlongs or a mile, and it’s hard to see him making much of an impact in the Preakness, which projects to have several more accomplished horses with the same pace-pressing style. Trainer John Servis won the 2004 Preakness Stakes with eventual champion 3-year-old male Smarty Jones. Co-owner Cash Is King Stables reached the Preakness winner’s circle one year after Servis with another 3-year-old champion, Afleet Alex. That colt’s 2005 Preakness score lingers in memory as one of the most amazing feats of athleticism in modern horse racing, as he recovered from a near-spill at the top of the stretch to win going away. Javier Castellano has two Preakness wins in six appearances: Bernardini in 2006 and Cloud Computing last year.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:16 PM
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Good Magic


Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Trainer: Chad Brown

Owners: e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables

Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $2,255,000

Earnings per start: $375,833

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 109

Pedigree: Curlin – Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Press the pace/stalker


Word on the Churchill Downs backstretch during Kentucky Derby week was that the 2017 champion 2-year-old male was sitting on a big performance, and Good Magic delivered with a solid runner-up effort behind racing’s newest superstar, Justify. Now, trainer Chad Brown will attempt to score a Preakness double following his breakthrough win with Cloud Computing last year. The presence of speedy Quip in the Preakness could enhance Good Magic’s chances of turning the tables on Justify, if jockey Jose Ortiz places his mount behind that pair and gets a swift early pace to set up his stalk-and-pounce running style. The 1 3/16-mile Preakness distance should suit this son of 2007 race winner Curlin, and he is easily the most formidable challenger to Justify … but, unless that foe regresses, he may be racing for second. Chad Brown won the Preakness last year with his first starter in the race. This will also be Jose Ortiz’s second consecutive appearance in the classic; he was aboard last-place Term of Art in 2017. Stonestreet Stables also co-owned Curlin in 2007 when that eventual Horse of the Year won the Preakness over Derby winner Street Sense, intensifying a great rivalry. Two years after that, they co-owned the fantastic filly Rachel Alexandra, who won the Preakness Stakes over Derby winner Mine That Bird and a dozen other males. Rachel Alexandra also would go on to be voted Horse of the Year.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:18 PM
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Tenfold


Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $124,200

Earnings per start: $41,400

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100

Pedigree: Curlin – Temptress, by Tapit

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Press the pace


This Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred flashed exciting talent in his first two starts at Oaklawn Park this spring, winning both at 1 1/16 miles, and then ran a respectable fifth when given a big class test in the Arkansas Derby. He’ll have to take an even higher leap in performance to be a factor in the Preakness, where he’ll be in the mix with graded stakes winners Quip and Bravazo, and possibly Diamond King, among the front-running horses that attempt to match strides with Justify. He has a good distance pedigree and has been training well at Churchill Downs for Steve Asmussen since the Arkansas Derby. Hall of Famer Asmussen has two Preakness wins, with Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra (2009), both voted Horse of the Year later in those respective campaigns. He’s also finished third once and fourth once, the latter coming last year with Lookin At Lee. This is the first Preakness for jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:19 PM
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Justify


Jockey: Mike Smith

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Owners: China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners, Starlight Racing, and WinStar Farm

Career record: 4 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $2,098,000

Earnings per start: $524,500

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 110

Pedigree: Scat Daddy – Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace


This physically imposing colt delivered on all of his pre-Kentucky Derby hype and then some with a scintillating 2 ½-length win in the 144th run for the roses. He now ships to Pimlico as an overwhelming favorite to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown and then set his sights on becoming the 13th Triple Crown winner in the June 9 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. He won the Derby in a rainstorm, on a sloppy track, and after tracking rapid early quarter-mile fractions of :22.24, :45.77, and 1:11.01. When challenged by champion Good Magic at the top of the stretch, he rebroke and pulled off to decisively defeat that rival, continuing strong to the finish line. The final time for the Derby’s mile and a quarter distance may have been slow at 2:04.20, but the fast early pace and track conditions certainly were factors, and Justify’s Equibase Speed Figure in the Derby of 110 marks a new career high. Once the eight-horse field breaks from the Pimlico starting gate, it would not be a surprise to see Justify and Mike Smith attempt to go gate to wire in the 1 3/16-mile race as they did in their Santa Anita Derby win on April 7. While there are several other horses in the field who prefer to race on or near the early lead, none of them possesses Justify’s cruising speed. But on the other hand, Justify has shown he can rate behind horses as well, giving Smith options as he makes early maneuvers in the race. The Hall of Fame rider has won one Preakness, with Prairie Bayou in 1993, from 16 total appearances. He’s also finished second twice (Mine That Bird in 2009; Bodemeister in 2012) and third four times. Smith recently discussed Justify's Kentucky Derby win and his Preakness strategy with America's Best Racing's Tom Pedulla. WinStar Farm’s 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver finished eighth in the Preakness. Jack and Laurie Wolf’s Starlight Racing owned 2002 Preakness Stakes fourth-place finisher Harlan’s Holiday. Bob Baffert is tied with D. Wayne Lukas in second place all-time with six Preakness Stakes wins, including all four of his prior Kentucky Derby winners (Silver Charm in 1997; Real Quiet in 1998; War Emblem in 2002; and American Pharoah in 2015).
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:20 PM
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Bravazo


Jockey: Luis Saez

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Owner: Calumet Farm

Career record: 9 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 1 third

Career earnings: $436,528

Earnings per start: $48,503

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 110

Pedigree: Awesome Again – Tiz o’ Gold, by Cee’s Tizzy

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Press the pace/stalker


After a no-show effort in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, this Calumet Farm homebred bounced back somewhat to outrun his 66.90-1 odds when sixth in the Kentucky Derby. He recovered from a bump at the start to reach the group of horses behind Justify and Good Magic at the top of the stretch before flattening out. With a far smaller field in the Preakness, expect him to get off to a much better start and be right with Justify and Quip in the early stages. His best races so far have all come when he’s settled just off of the early pace – but whether he has the talent to hang with Justify, Good Magic, and Quip when the real running begins is another question. Calumet Farm has won the Preakness a record eight times, and its last Preakness victory came with Oxbow in 2013 for current owner Brad Kelley. Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas reappeared in Triple Crown headlines with Oxbow’s win, his sixth in the Preakness. Lukas is tied with Bob Baffert for the second most all-time Preakness wins, behind Robert Wyndham Walden’s seven. This will be Luis Saez’s first appearance in the Preakness.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:29 PM
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Direct from Las Vegas, WagerTalk.com TV host Ralph Michaels (Cal Sports) and Marco D’Angelo look at the Preakness odds and give their predictions and picks on the 143rd annual Preakness Stakes

Some of the topics covered for the Preakness Stakes handicapping analysis are ...


►Recap of the Kentucky Derby

►Can Justify win the Triple Crown

►Difference when handicapping the Kentucky Derby vs the Preakness Stakes

►Who are the top Preakness contenders outside of Justify

►Preakness long shots

►General horse racing handicapping tips when betting on the Preakness



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Old 05-18-2018, 05:05 PM
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Plays from Against the Number ...

Against the Number is a community of licensed Bookmakers and odds makers, professional sports handicappers, sports writers and sports enthusiasts.



Preakness Day


1: 4-1-7

2: 3-4-9-1

3: 7-8-1

4: 9-7-3-5

5: 6-9-3

6: 7-1-10


Race 7 Grade II Dixie

Divisidero (8): We go back to the old cagey veteran who hasn’t been seen since October and now joins a new barn if he has anything left he will be competitive here and overlooked.

World Approval (7): Has shown the ability to handle the soft going which he might see in this race. This champ is looking to win this event back to back.

Frostmourne (4): Took a big jump in class to the Makers Mile last out and while he didn’t win the track was a merry go round all day, he has the look of one who could step up and be a player in this division.


Race 8 Chick Lang Stakes

Mitole (5): This one lays over the field on every figure he should blast off and be gone from the opening bell.

Curlys Rocket (7): Has really put it together in his last two starts this is a class test but he’s worth a look.

Pure Shot (3): The other Assmumen in the race, gets back on his preferred surface and should have no trouble handling the off going.


Race 9 Grade III Gallorette

Ultra Brat (3): When off as a huge price in her last vs a classy field this spot is much more realistic and she might be forgotten in the wagering.

Elyesa’s World (8): The class of the field she will be on the wire but she likes to make it interesting and looks to be a short price for Brown.

Blessed Silence (6): Has kept quality company overseas makes second start for the Clement barn that tends to warm up around this time, she is never going to be 12/1.


Race 10 Grade III Maryland Sprint

Switzerland (5): This one has been highly regarded for a while and finally seems to be putting it all together with the switch to the Assmusen barn he will be hard to pass in the lane.

Long Haul Bay (9): Would benefit if there is a hot pace up front but historical when it rains at Pilmico it’s hard to pass horses in the lane.

Fellowship (8): Has back numbers that make him competitive here and also holds a win over the sloppy track.


Race 11 The Very One Stakes

Chanteline (1): Back in December beat a horse named triple Chelsea who went on to win multiple stakes including a win over Lady Aureilla , a reversal in form to that effort makes her live at a good number.

Just Talkin (12): Had a nice prep at Gulf for the step back into stakes company not may better at sprinting on the turf then Servis.

Girls Know Best (7): Blew away a solid allowance field at Keeneland over the soft going, she runs that race again she’s in the mix here.


Race 12 Sir Barton Stakes

Ax Man (8): Much the one to beat here he looks as though he bounced after coming back quick off the maiden win he has time between his last he should win this one easy.

Pony Up (2): Ran a game race in the Lexington coming from the clouds on a day where you needed to be close he always fills in the tri and exacta but doesn’t typically win.

Whirlin Curlin (7): A slop play here for the underneath’s at a big number.


Race 13 Grade I Preakness

Justify (7): Bob Baffert has won the Preakness 6 times with 4 times being from Derby winners a perfect record with that move. Someone will need to run the race of a lifetime and have Justify have something go wrong to win. Get your Belmont tickets before the race.

Tenfold (2): Has run three very good races and progressing in the right direction I think he’s the one we haven’t seen the best from yet, he won’t be good enough to win but he’s a big number for the exotics.

Good Magic (5): Very nice horse for Stonestreet and E5 but he had everything set up for him on derby day and was no match for Justify why would it be different this time?


Race 14: 8-6-9



Pick 5 Race 9-13

1 dollar pick 5: 3,5,6,8/5,8,9/1,7,12/ 8/7 = $36


Race 13 Exacta

7/2,3,5,8 = 4 dollars per dollar bet


50 cent Trifecta

7/2,3,5,8/ 1,2,3,5,8 = $10
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:14 PM
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Forget Justify. Try these five ways to wager on the Preakness Stakes horse racing odds


Odds to win the 2018 Triple Crown Yes (+130) or No (-180)

This is an intriguing bet and one which may be best off waiting if you want to play against Justify in the Belmont. Of course, it all hinges on him winning the Preakness Stakes first. But if he does so as easily as many are predicting, then it's certainly possible the "No" option is closer to EVEN money after the Preakness with only the Belmont remaining.

With many Derby runners taking time off to freshen up and new faces bred for the longer distance in the Belmont, if he makes it to the starting gate on Belmont Stakes day, that will prove to be his toughest test yet.

Many have come close to winning the Triple Crown (23 runners) in the past, including I'll Have Another in 2012 and most recently California Chrome in 2014. But the Belmont either sidelined them due to injury or they just came up short at the finish line. There's a reason why the Triple Crown is such an elusive feat to accomplish and although Justify looks more than capable, he's still a long way's away.


Will Justify run in the Belmont Stakes? Yes (-400) or No (+750)

I'm sure at this point most have heard the news about Justify's post-Derby injury and have not been entirely sure how to take the news and the severity of it. Although it looks like he's training well and everything is normal, it's very possible that it may be more serious than connections are choosing to lead on.

There's also a possibility that if he doesn't win the Preakness Stakes his connections won't choose to race him in the Belmont with no Triple Crown bid on the line. The former is the most likely scenario to cash a bet like this, as he really does look like a Preakness standout. However, the price is enticing to root for a disappointing Preakness effort and a decision for Justify to skip the Belmont.


Head-to-head matchup Tenfold vs. Sporting Chance (-115 each)

This is an interesting bet which features two newcomers to the Triple Crown trail. Tenfold is a lightly-raced colt with only three career starts but already boasting two wins - albeit against much easier competition.

Sporting Chance skipped out on the Derby and opted to race in the Pat Day Mile, so the shorter distance of the Preakness and smaller field size may work to his advantage.

Both Tenfold and Sporting Chance are looking to run similar races while sitting close to the pace early. Speed wise, there’s no standout as well. The edge comes in terms of quality wins. Sporting Chance already has a graded stakes victory (G1 Hopeful as a 2-year-old) and Tenfold may be outmatched due to a huge jump in class.


Head-to-head matchup Lone Sailor (+110) vs. Bravazo (-140)

The longest shot on the board, Lone Sailor, may struggle mightily versus Grade-1 competition. He proved no match for Derby runners and has only one career win, which was versus maiden company. It's tough to say if his preferred racing style is as a closer or if he just seems to struggle with early speed and have slow breaks. While the pace in the Preakness should be honest enough, perhaps even quick, that was the case in the Derby early on and he still struggled to make up ground on some tired horses late.

Bravazo outperformed his enormous 65/1 odds in the Derby and had a very troubled trip being bumped and shuffled around. It didn't look like he had any chance at closing on the eventual winners, however, his final fractions were impressive and he does have a shot especially if there were to be a pace collapse in the Preakness Stakes.


Margin of Victory: 1 length or more (-250) or Less than 1 length (+195)

Although on paper it certainly looks like Justify could run away with this one easily, there are cases to be made that the finish is much closer than expected.

There are lots of horses looking to run similar styles of race, there should be quite a bit of speed, there might be a lot of slop and terrible racing conditions, and there are a lot of new horses which haven't tried their luck against Justify, who may loom as threats.

If you think there might be a late stretch run from a horse or a battle in the deep stretch, almost getting 2/1 odds might be an appealing option for Preakness betting.
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Old 05-18-2018, 10:14 PM
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On the eve of the 143rd running of the Preakness Stakes here's where the latest action is per William Hill's 108 Nevada sportsbooks and sports app ...


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