Saturday Gulfstream & Fairgrounds

[Joeaveragefan]

SATURDAY JANUARY 21

Courtesy of @Steve_Byk

GULFSTREAM PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-T/108' (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Some attractive options at bonus totes here. Animal Kingdom full brother Thursby tries to get moving in right direction. Potentially a big day for Team Valor with Crimson China in the 4th, Vamos a Ver in the 8th and the top pair in the 3yo turf stake Kitten's Joy later..

Best Value: #6 Coach Royal 10-1
Next Best: #11 Godard 8-1
Exotics Use: #10 Punctual Jeff 6-1
Super Add: #3 Saturnus 8-1


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

A less-engaging than expected 3yo ALW. Not much speed here, so if Juan Leyva can take control, there's a chance Rev It Up wires them. Lone speed is the first scenario you look for in 7f races. Andy Serling taught me that 15 years ago..

Best Value: #1 Rev It Up 8-1
Next Best: #6 Angel's Tune 5-2
Exotics Use: #4 Tarpy's Goal 4-1
Super Add: #5 Rex's Last Tour 20-1


8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 12f-T/48' (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Chess match with favored Gondorf inside and trying to take them the trip under Contreras. Gets subtle class relief too from good McKnight and straight N1X tries since coming south. Navy Wings (20-1) an interesting price idea under Kent D. who is very under-rated pilot turf routing. Why is Pletcher running the Maiden in here? Crying for the added ground and no MDN race likely this distance I guess?

Most Likely: #1 Gondorf 5-2
Best Value: #5 Navy Wings 20-1
Next Best: #2 Seaside Retreat 12-1
Exotics Use: #9 Vamos a Ver 4-1


9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Mostly un-raced set with some solid pedigrees. Storm On the Loose from sharp Catalano is a half to Riley Tucker. Liberty Bound dropped by fleet Larry Jones trainee Hello Liberty who won the G2 Nassau in '06 ahead of placement behind Bushfire in the G1 Acorn..

Best Value: #7 Storm On the Loose 8-1
Next Best: #3 Chosen Heir 5-1
Exotics Use: #2 Nonno's Boy 3-1
Super Add: #9 Z Vilna 6-1


10th: 13th Kitten's Joy, 3yo, 8.5f-T/108' (DD, Super)

Feels like the top choices are best here..

Most Likely: #5 Lucky Chappy 9-5
Best Value: #6 Cozzetti 6-1
Next Best: #4 Howe Great 5-1
Exotics Use: #1 Italo 4-2


11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/48' (Super, Super Hi-5)

Ugly end to good sequence. Perhaps half of this field can win at a glance and another 3-4 have jump-up potential and be aware of #13 English Beauty should she draw in of AE's..

Most Likely: #8 Sheerflakesofgold 6-1
Best Value: #4 Green Tea Icecream 8-1
Next Best: #12 Ainsley 6-1
Exotics Use: #11 Morediamondsplease 7-2
Hi-5 Play: #2 Imperial Strike 4-1


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-4-6
8: 1-2-5-9
9: 3-7
10: 5-6
11: 4-8-12

3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-5-9
9: 2-3-7-9
10: 4-5-6
11: 4-8-12

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



FAIR GROUNDS


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: 27th Gaudin, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Cash Refund 5-2
Next Best: #5 Gantry 9-5
Best Value: #3 Mambo Galliano 8-1


5th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Sporting Holiday 6-1
Next Best: #2 Albin 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Atom Splitter 9-2
Super Add: #9 Meldrick 8-1


6th: 20th Silverbulletday, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

All eyes on Stall's Applauding trying to convert brilliance into two turn apptitude..

Most Likely: #5 Applauding 4-5
Next Best: #6 Summer Applause 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Inny Minnie 8-1
Super Add: #1 Yvete Sangalo 12-1


7th: 26th Col. Bradley (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Glenwood Canyon only goes here if race comes off turf. Otherwise he stays in the Louisiana..

Most Likely: #2 Suntracer 3-1
Best Value: #4 Dubious Miss 8-1
Next Best: #6 Lonesome Street 6-1
Exotics Use: #7 Mr. Vegas 9-2


8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Proper Empire 5-2
Best Value: #1 Donoharm 8-1
Next Best: #6 Congenial 9-2
Exotics Use: #4 Atlantic Titan 20-1


9th: 66th Louisiana H., 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Thiskyhasnolimit 6-1
Next Best: #4 Fast Alex 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 Gleam of Hope 6-1
Super Add: #8 Glenwood Canyon 7-2


<$75 P5 Play:

5: 2-3-8-9
6: 5
7: 2-4-6
8: 1-5-6
9: 2-4-6-8

4x1x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


10th: 47th Pan Zareta, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Wild About Marie 4-1
Best Value: #13 Inspired 10-1
Next Best: #10 Flash Mash 8-1
Exotics Use: #11 Rapport 5-1


11th: 68th Lecomte (G3), 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched though non-descript group start the road to the rich LA Derby. Waiting for word from Bernie Flint regarding Exfactor's inclusion after he kicked his stall earlier this week and became iffy for today's event. Suggest using as many as you can afford in the P4..

Most Likely: #2e Zayat entry 6-1
Best Value: #3 Ted's Folly 10-1
Exotics Use: #4 Mr. Bowling 8-1
Super Add: #11 Shared Property 4-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5-6
9: 2-4-6-8
10: 5-13
11: 2-3-4-5*-8-11 (*#5 Exfactor may SCR)

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY ACTION

Gulfstream Park


R7 - OC 75k/N1X (3yo 7F)

#6 Angel's Tune (5-2) - Stamina builder in last.
#4 Tarpy's Goal (4-1) - Quick turnaround after turf experiment.
#3 Dangerous Trick (6-1) - Fired bullet after just missing at Tampa.
#7 Bet On Jack (6-1) - Looks to uncork a late rally.

R8 - OC 25k/N1X (Turf 12F)

#1 Gondorf (5-2) - In good form and finds a softer spot.
#2 Seaside Retreat (12-1) - Old gelding is still capable.
#4 White Hill (12-1) - Maiden needs to be respected at marathon distance.
#12 Saint Jude (8-1) - Extra real estate could wake him up.

R9 - MSW 51k (3yo 6F)

#2 Nonno's Boy (3-1) - Has ran into a buzz saw in last two.
#7 Storm On the Loose (8-1) - Catalano is sending them out with a purpose.
#8 Liberty Bound (4-1) - Debuts after sharp gate workout last Sunday.
#9 Z Vilna (6-1) - Zayat 1ster could be any kind.

R10 - Kitten's Joy 100k (3yo 8.5F)

#5 Lucky Chappy (Ire) (9-5) - Gets better draw and class relief.
#6 Cozzetti (6-1) - Returns to the lawn, which could be his permanent home.
#4 Howe Great (5-1) - Front runner will try and gut it out again.
#3 El Romano (10-1) - Expecting a late charge for a minor slice.

R11 - Md 35k (Turf 3yo f 8.5F)

#12 Ainsley (6-1) - Sacco lethal sprint to route.
#4 Green Tea Icecream (8-1) - Drops and gets more distance to work with.
#11 Morediamondsplease (7-2) - Improved when switched to the turf.
#8 Sheerflaksofgold (6-1) - Overmatched at CD, McPeek 29% MSW to MCL.

PK5 - 4 6 / 1 2 4 6 9 12 / 2 7 / 5 6 / 4 11 12 = $72 for $.50

PK4 - 1 2 4 6 9 12 / 2 7 / 4 5 6 / 4 8 11 12 = $72 for $.50


Fair Grounds


R11 - G3 Lecomte (3yo 8F & 70 yds)

#2 Dan and Shela (POE) (6-1) - Ambitious spot for 2nd start.
#3 Ted's Folly (10-1) - On a roll and beat a couple that came back to run well at Oaklawn.
#11 Shared Property (4-1) - Interesting to see what he can do routing on dirt.
#10 Capetown Devil (6-1) - Owns a local win at the distance.

Tri Key - 2 / 3 5 10 11
Tri P/W - 3 5 10 11 / 2 / 3 5 10 11

Good Racing Luck