Suffolk Monday OCT. 18

[Sooner4Life]

I'm going back to what was working. Picking horses I think should and will win. I've gotten killed by going with longshots that had angles I liked.

Suffolk

R2 #4 Elena's Flag 3/1
R3 #5 Puma's Pride 2/1
R4 #8 Luvwillkeepus 2/1
R5 #7 Sgt. Lefty 3/1
R6 #5 Rizzi This 3/1

[smooth53_98]

Rocky,

I get killed with some of my longshot angles... they show a profit on the long term, but only hit at 9% - 12%; makes it kind of tough for us part-time bettors! I'd be interested to swap ideas with you on some longshot angles if you would like!

Good luck at Suffolk today... I caught second in a bid we were preparing here at work today, what a pain in the butt... been working on it since the end of July and we were 300k over the low bidder on $44.5M. Oh well, on to the next one.

-smooth

[Sooner4Life]

Here's what I did today - $10 to Win only on the 5 races.

I only had two winners, but one (race 4) paid $4.40 ($22.00 on $10 bet) and the other (race 5) paid $6.40 ($32.00 on $10 bet).

So, I hit only 2 of 5 and made $4.00. It just seems like playing longshots catches up to you, especially when you play them an hour or more before the race.

The problem I've had, Smooth, is I'll play a lone speed or lone closer who needs speed to run at an hour or more before the race and the Speed Horse in the race will scratch giving my angle Zero chance.

One angle I was briefly successful at earlier is looking at places like Remington and Hoosier (lesser talented tracks with lower purses) because I feel there are beatable favorites (since rarely are there any studs in the field). What I've found lately is I'm trying to beat those unimpressive favorites at the average tracks with REALLY unimpressive long shots. There is a reason they aren't the favorites.

Now, The last couple of days I've watched more long shots come thru at Santa Anita and Belmont. It makes since, If it's an allowance race for $55,000 the entry fee for the race is rather high. So, Most owners and trainers aren't going to pay a 3-5 thousand dollar entry with a poor horse which means (to me at least) that the long shot horse is capable of something big. Where as, the smaller track long shot really relies on the favorites running poorly rather than them running extraordinary.