TAB Melbourne Cup preview

[dave nz]

Harris Tweed could stitch up a New Zealand Cup success again

By John Jenkins,

It is nine years since a New Zealand-trained horse won the Melbourne Cup but Harris Tweed gives the Kiwis a royal chance of breaking the drought in Tuesday’s A$6.1million feature at Flemington. Ethereal, prepared by the then Cambridge-based Sheila Laxon and owned by the Vela brothers, was the last horse to achieve it back in 2001. Trans-Tasman New Zealand trainer Graeme Rogerson did grace the Flemington victory dais after saddling up Efficient to win three years ago but the horse was based in his Melbourne stable. Harris Tweed ($16) and Red Ruler ($101) are the only two true New Zealand-trained horses in Tuesday’s race, although Monaco Consul ($18) is also prepared by another Trans-Tasman trainer in Mike Moroney. Harris Tweed ticks all the right boxes as a genuine winning chance in this year’s Cup. He finished fifth in the race last year and is a said to be a stronger and more mature horse this spring. He is coming off a top run for second in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) at his last start. He is nicely placed at the weights, drawn to get a good run and is at the right age. The Montjeu gelding’s trainers Murray and Bjorn Baker are already buoyant after winning Saturday’s $A1.5million Victoria Derby and are not concerned about the rain that has fallen in Melbourne in the past 24 hours. Murray Baker came within a length of training a Melbourne Cup winner 20 years ago when The Phantom finished second to the Bart Cummings-trained Kingston Rule, who had to run a race-record time to get past the tough Kiwi stayer.

Baker, who now trains in partnership with his son Bjorn, thinks Harris Tweed is probably the most genuine stayer he has lined up in the race since then. The horse jumped from barrier 19 in last year’s race and was always wide in the running. “He went a good race in last year’s Cup fifth after covering a lot of ground from a wide draw,” Baker said last week. “He was wide from the 800 and just came to the end of it the last bit. He’s a much stronger horse now as bit of rain won’t worry him.” Harris Tweed is a five-year-old and horses of that age have won the Melbourne Cup 18 times since 1960, the most of any age group. He will carry the same weight he had when finishing a game second to Descarado in the Caulfield Cup a fortnight ago and that is 4.5kg less than he won with over 2500 metres on the Flemington track on October 3.

The “Cups King” Bart Cummings was the trainer who spoilt the Bakers party 20 years ago and has won an amazing 12 Melbourne Cups. The master trainer, who turns 83 next week, will again produce the horse to beat in the now firm race favourite in So You Think ($3.50).The outstanding New Zealand-bred four-year-old has been such a dominant winner of his five starts this spring that rival trainers and jockeys are in awe over just how good he is. He was again in a class of his own when taking out Saturday’s traditional Cup lead-up race, the weight-for-age Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) by 3-3/4 lengths. There is no doubting the horse’s class to win a Melbourne Cup, or his ability to cope with rain affected tracks. The only question mark is whether he will be able to see out a grueling 3200 metres at just his 12th race start. Rider Steven Arnold said the High Chaparral four-year-old settled perfectly for him in Saturday’s Mackinnon and he didn’t have to punish him to win. He has drawn perfectly at barrier three on Tuesday and should be able to enjoy the run of the race.

European-trained horses have won the race twice, with Vintage Crop in 1993 and Media Puzzle in 2002 and they look to have one of their strongest contingents ever in this year’s race. Heading the European assault is the French-trained Americain ($12). He was most impressive when winning the Geelong Cup (2400m) 10 days ago, a race that Media Puzzle also took out before his Cup success. Americain is the winner of his last four starts and they all been in staying events, at distances ranging from 2400 to 3000 metres. He has been a winner in slow footing and will be ridden by top International jockey Gerald Mosse. The powerful Godolphin stable from Newmarket came close to winning last year’s Cup when Crime Scene finished second to Shocking and this year they will have two chances in Holberg ($21) and Campanologist ($61). The fact that the stable’s number one rider, Frankie Dettori, has opted for Holberg suggests he could be their main hope and the horse is certainly dangerously placed at the weights on 53.5kg, after carrying 57kg and more in his last four starts.

Last year’s winner Shocking ($7.00) has been kept safe with the punters despite having to lump 6.5kg more than he had last year. He has had a good build-up again to this year’s race, including a fast finishing fourth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). Descarado relished the heavy track conditions when winning the Caulfield Cup (2400m) a fortnight ago and has followed that up with another top run for second behind So You Think in Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). He carried 58kg in that race and drops to just 54kg in the Cup. Maluckyday ($8.00) is another lightweight chance, with just 51kg on his back. The New Zealand-bred is seen as a rising star among the ranks of stayers in Australia and could not have been more impressive when striding to a 1-3/4 length win in the Lexus Stakes (2500m) at Flemington on Saturday. He has since been in a big shortener in the betting and is now clear third favourite behind So You Think and Shocking.

Bet Now
Runner by Runner

By John Jenkins,

1 (5246) Shocking (24) 57. The winner of this race last year, when carrying just 51kg. Has had the ideal build up again this year but has 6.5kg more on his back and the extreme outside draw to overcome.
2 (3113) Campanologist (19) 56. One of two entrants from the powerful Godolphin stable. Has been carrying 60kg and more in last four starts so 56kg won’t worry him. Has won up to 2400 metres but never beyond. Respect.
3 (1111) So You Think (3) 56. The latest champion of the Australian turf and winner of eight of his 11 starts. Outclassed his opposition in winning both the Cox Plate (2040m) and Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) in last two starts and the obvious one to beat if he can see out the 3200 metres.
4 (X512) Zipping (16) 55.5. Has finished fourth twice in past Melbourne Cups and was ninth two years ago. Now a nine-year-old but racing in career best form. Will give his best again but may be suspect at the 3200 metres.
5 (215X) Illustrious Blue (9) 55. English entrant. A dour stayer who has won two from two at 3200 metres. Has not raced since August 18 but trainer does perform well fresh and trainer is happy with his condition.
6 (91X6) Mr Medici (5) 55. Hong Kong entrant who produced a good effort for 6th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) in his first Australian start. Carries the same weight here and drawn well. Has won on a waterlogged track in the past.
7 (3344) Shoot Out (17) 55. Probably the most seasoned runner in this year’s cup, with eight races behind him since July 31. Has finished close up in all of them and is now racing more like a stayer. Wide draw is the only concern.
8 (1111) Americain (12) 54.5. French entrant. Impressive winner of the Geelong Cup (2400m) 10 days ago, in first Australian start. Had won three on end in France before that, two at 3000 metres. Well placed at the weights.
9 (19X0) Tokai Trick (4) 54.5. Japanese entrant. Covered plenty of extra ground and suffered a check on the home turn when unplaced in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) in first Australian start. Should get easier run from inside draw but needs good footing.
10 (0070) Buccellati (21) 54. Well beaten in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start and form before that was only average. Has a wide draw to overcome and rated a 200 to one chance in the betting. Hard to like.
11 (1012) Descarado (1) 54. Strong win in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) on a heavy track and followed up with a grinding second behind So You Think in Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). Will be prominent for a long way from the number one draw.
12 (9812) Harris Tweed (13). The main New Zealand-trained hope. Fifth in this race last year and is a stronger horse and in better form this time. Game run for 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and carried 58.5kg when winning over 2500 metres at Flemington before that. Looks a good each-way chance.
13 (5525) Manighar (20) 54. English-entrant. Useful effort for 5th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) where he over-raced in the middle stages. Has trained on well since and the likelihood of a rain affected track is no concern. Has awkward draw to overcome however.
14 (0858) Master O’Reilly (18) 54. Has placed fourth in this race in each of the last two years but not racing well enough this campaign to be considered a winning chance this time. Rated a 200 to one chance in the betting.
15 (6703) Monaco Consul (14) 54. Creditable effort for 3rd in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start. Steps up again in distance here but connections are confident he will see out 3200 metres. Doesn’t mind a wet track.
16 (2112) Profound Beauty (22) 54. From the Irish stable of Dermot Weld, who produced Vintage Crop to win in 1993 and Media Puzzle in 2002. Talented staying mare who finished 5th in this race two years ago. In good form again and worthy of respect.
17 (6407) Zavite (7) 54. Winner of this year’s Auckland Cup (3200m) and had no luck when 7th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start. Should take up a prominent position from an inside draw. Capable of a place at long odds.
18 (2X54) Bauer (2) 53.5. English entrant from strong Luca Cumani stable. Proven stayer who was beaten a nose when 2nd in this race two years ago. Has only had two races since however and under an injury cloud since arriving in Australia this time.
19 (1521) Holberg (10) 53.5. The second of the entrants from the Powerful Godolphin stable. Winner of six races from 12 starts, one of them over 3200 metres. Well placed at the weights and jockey Frankie Dettori has opted for him ahead of Campanologist.
20 (4131) Precedence (15) 53.5. The second-string for champion trainer Bart Cummings, behind So You Think. Has been steadily building towards this race and was a decisive winner of the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start. Cannot be overlooked.
21 (6406) Red Ruler (8) 53.5. The second of the New Zealand-trained chances in the race, behind Harris Tweed. Winner of this year’s Wellington Cup (2400m) and was running on fairly for sixth over 2500 metres on Saturday. Does back up well with short gap between races.
22 (3312) Linton (23) 52. Promising stayer who made ground strongly for 2nd in the Lexus Stakes (2500m) on Saturday. That followed a tough win over 2400 metres at Caulfield. Drops to a dangerous place in the weights. Respect.
23 (8083) Once Were Wild (11) 51.5. Disputed the pace before being run down late in Saturday’s Lexus Stakes (2500m). Likely to be ridden a bit more patient here. Had no luck in the Geelong Cup (2400m) two starts back. Another lightweight chance.
24 (3111) Maluckyday (6) 51. A rising star in the ranks of stayers. Has not failed to pay a dividend in eight starts, including five wins. Powered home the last 200 metres to win the Lexus Stakes (2500m) on Saturday and drops 2kg from the weight he carried then. A big shortener in betting markets.

Selections: Harris Tweed, So You Think, Americain
Longshot: Holberg