Tips for Betting the Breeder’s Cup

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Every year horse players look forward to the World Horse Racing Championships which brings out the best horses and jockeys from around the world. Churchill Downs will host the event for the 6th time and the first time since 2006. The long stretch and relatively cool temperatures at the track make it a venue which is preferred by horsemen from both the Eastern U.S. and Europe. This will be the first time Churchill will host the event over 2 days with the Marathon and filly events being held on Friday and the other events being held on Saturday.

Looking at the 6 years the Breeder’s Cup has been held at Churchill, 3 things jump out at the handicapper – the success of European shippers, the quick times and the mammoth payouts. In fact in those 6 years, 9 horses won at odds of 25/1 or better and a whopping 18 horses, or close to 40% of runners won at double digit odds. Spain has been the biggest price winner at Churchill to date paying $114 for a $2 ticket in the 2000 Lady’s Classic. Also as mentioned European shippers have won 75% of the turf races run in the Breeder’s Cup at the track and 3 European shippers won on the dirt.

With that in mind here are some plays for this year’s Breeder’s Cup races:

Friday’s Races:
The Marathon:

The Marathon is a 1 3/4 mile race that has favoured European invaders despite being run on the dirt. It was only introduced in the last couple of years to fill the card and there is speculation that at some point the race may become a steeplechase. The race has also changed distances several times. From past results it’s clear that the horse that wins has to be one with stamina but also one that rates well. No horse has come from way out of it to win the race. 2 horses that look like value plays are Alcomo and Bright Horizon. Alcomo tends to rate well and makes a late charge from just off the pace. He has the ability to handle the distance and has beaten most of the main contenders in the race. As well his outside post should help his chances. Bright Horizon is the sole European in the race and while he has struggled against the best in Europe he does come off a 5 length victory at the 2 mile distance. Aiden O’Brien has been quite successful with his European shippers and there is little other class in the field. As mentioned, Europeans have also fared well in this event in the past.

Juvenile Filly Turf

Winter Memories is the morning line favourite and rightly so. In her 2 races to date she has blown away the competition in great time. She clearly likes the distance and will have plenty of speed to run at. The juvenile filly races have been the one exception to the longshot trend as more than 3/4 of the races in the juvenile filly races at all Breeder’s Cup events have gone to the favourite.

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Tips for Betting the Breeder's Cup : Horse Racing : Betfair.net