Tips for Saratoga

[Bobtailnag]

* Rick Violette Jr. and Phil Serpe trained horses run out of there skin when they get to Saratoga. Mr. Serpe has shown a flat bet profit on the betting dollar at 7 of the last 8 Saratoga meetings. Last year Serpe had won only 6 races through the first 7 months of the year...but his barn exploded for 10 wins at the Saratoga meet. That means Serpe won as many races as Frankel (7) and Shug McGuahey (3) combined last year. Prado is the go-to rider..he won 6 for Serpe from only 12 mounts last year. Violette Jr. is the Spa magic man...he's tough with everything...but especially 2-year-olds. Over the last three meets Violette 2-year-olds have won 7 of 16...including Distressed Debt, who paid over $60 to win on the Travers undercard last year.

* When people think good debut trainers...I guess they tend to think Steve Assmussen, Todd Pletcher, and Wayne Lukas...all three of them have failed with first time starters at the Spa though. Here are some trainers who are historically live with debuters...Pat Biancone (4 for 12) H. James Bond (10 for 26) Dale Romans (3 for 5) and Rick Violette Jr. (5 for 11)

* Last year's leading trainer Todd Pletcher is no one to pick on....it's tempting to show his favorite's no respect because he has such a high volume of them...but over the last three meetings Pletcher has gone 40 for 86 with horses going to post at odds of 2-to-1 or less...showing an overall flat bet profit. So one should be cautious about trying to beat a Pletcher chalk who has few flaws to pick at.

* Beware of Tim Ritvo---this is a florida based trainer whom I've never had all that much respect for...but he's live at the Spa! Ritvo made his first regular appearance at Saratoga at the 2001 meeting. Ritvo has shown a flat bet profit in all three Spa meetings he's participated in.

* Avoid trainers who's barn goes cold!! Everyone loves Bobby Frankel because he's the greatest trainer to ever live...but even Frankel can go cold. He lossed 18 consecutive races at Saratoga last year...which climaxed in a 0 for 8 day with 6 beaten favorites on Travers Day. One day before the Travers...Frankel's Wild Spirt lost at 1-to-5 odds...people should have known to avoid Frankel like the plague on Travers Day! In 2001 Nick Zito went 1 for 65...in 2000 Lukas went 3 for 48---Steve Assmussen once went 0 for 15..and in 2002 Scott Lake went 0 for 39. Don't be afraid to jump off of a sinking ship at Saratoga!!

[smooth53_98]

Good information, thanks for the heads up Bobtailnag!