Weazels Kentucky Derby Plays

[weazel079]

Remember!!! Anything can happen in this race. This means that you have to avoid the hype. You should even avoid tipsters. This race is the most exciting 2 minutes in horseracing. Try and nail it with your own handicapping. It only comes around once a year. I didn't pick the winner Barbaro last year. A couple of years back I hit long shot Giacomo. I also hit Bernardini in the Preakness at long odds. The Kentucky Derby is usually one tough race to pick. The winning colt needs luck. With a field of 20 colts, the survivor has to get the right trip, avoid gate trouble, be absolutely in top physical form. I wouldn't have gotten Giacomo 2 years ago except Jeremy Rose used Afleet Alex too early, thus robbing us of a Triple Crown winner. From what I've seen most of the paid big name public handicappers have done poorly in this race. Andy Beyer seldom wins here. He also likes Street Sense which doesn't look good for me. Also media hyped darlings that become favorites seldom win. Last year Brother Derek turned out to be a false favorite. You never know.
Derby Day is one day that I fish with a wide net. With 20 runners the exactas and tri's can be quite rewarding, if you can get them. If the track is a sloppy mess and traction is a problem for pressers and closers then early speed types like #17 Stormello, # 1 Sedgefield and # 12 Nobiz Like Showbiz may be hard to bring down. As of the now the track looks fine. On a fair track" on a fair day under normal circumstances the best colt in this race could be #16 Circular Quay. But the rumor mill says 1. Circular Quay is sore. 2. Therapy twice a week for shins 3.laid off 2 months 4. Velazquez is ordered to ride him. 4. As a closer, he may have trouble on a sloppy track. I will ignore all of that. That said, I will still use #16 Circular Quay top and bottom. Otherwise # 7 Street Sense would be a very tough runner to bring down. After looking over and over at all the information I can find and handicapping the race these are my top two. I will not change my previous selections as I don't believe in doing so. I still like my previous selections but I think Circular Quay needs to be added in on top. I really think you can throw out beyer numbers here. I believe Beyer numbers in the Derby really only help you eliminate horses. Horses that will be on others selections that I don't like are Great Hunter, Hard Spun, Dominican. I just don't see it with these three. You got a draw a line somewhere and make a stand. My first call is exacta box 7-16. Beyond that it could be anyone's game on this track. The top 6 in my eyes are # 16 Circular Quay, # 7 Street Sense, # 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz, # 2 Curlin, # 18 Any Given Saturday, and # 14 Scat Daddy. If a storm hits and the track gets sloppy # 2 Curlin will likely be lower odds. He could win, but I don't like his chances of getting the distance.

These tickets might look a little bit different. My opinion changed a little bit this morning from yesterday. And I don't change tickets.

Kentucky Derby
$10 to win and $20 to place on #7 Street Sense
$10 across the board on #15 Tiago (this horse is my sleeper and might suprise)
$4 exacta box 7-14-18
$2 exacta 7 with 2-3-14-15-16-18
$2 exacta 7-14-18 with 2-3-7-14-15-16-18
$1 exacta 2-3-7-14-15-16-18 (hoping for some longshots)
Added these this morning:
Add: $5 exacta box 7-16
$2 exacta box 7-12-14-16-18
$1 exacta 7-12-14-16-18/1-2-3-7-10-12-14-15-16-17-18 ($50) Lots of horses. The exacta usually pays nicley in the Derby. Two years agao with Giacomo won the the $2 exacta paid $9K and change.

Total Investment: $274
Can't wait for the race to see if I got this right. Going home rich or I'll be spending the night in the gutter drinking boo's. Good luck to everyone with there selections

[Wabash Wonders]

good luck weazel...