Why the Can and Can't win the Derby

[WildKat]

Lookin At Lucky

Why: No one comes close to the 2-year-old champion's accomplishments: three Grade I victories, with his fastest performance also in his only dirt start (the Rebel).

Quantcast

Why not: Call him Lookin At Unlucky. He's encountered traffic problems in three of his last four races (including his only two losses), and trouble is a tough path to Derby victory.

Noble's Promise

Why: If he hadn't kept running into Lookin At Lucky, his record might be as impressive as anyone else in the field. His Arkansas Derby fifth was better than it looks, and he came out with a lung infection.

Why not: A son of the miler Cuvee out of a mare by the top sprinter Clever Trick winning at 1¼ miles? The last horse to win the Derby after being fifth in its last prep was Iron Liege in 1957.

Sidney's Candy

Why: He is a top horse, setting a Del Mar record at 5½ furlongs and winning the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby by 4½ lengths. The racing gods will make it up to 20-year-old jockey Joe Talamo for scratching Derby favorite I Want Revenge on race morning last year.

Why not: No horse has won the Derby in his first dirt start.

Line of David

Why: His Arkansas Derby victory was his first start on dirt and his best performance. Hot trainers winning with their lesser-regarded horse (John Sadler also trains Sidney's Candy) is a good betting angle.

Why not: His wins have all been wire-to-wire, and there's too much speed in this race. His final three-eighths time in the Arkansas Derby suggests he might not want to go another furlong.


Mission Impazible

Why: He is getting good at the right time, as his Louisiana Derby triumph shows. You know that when Todd Pletcher finally wins the Derby, it won't be with the horse everyone expects.

Quantcast

Why not: The Louisiana Derby was his best race to date, and it was a slowly run race.

Ice Box

Why: All the speed will set up his late kick. His Churchill works have been very strong.

Why not: The last horse to win the Derby off a six-week layoff was Needles in 1956.

Stately Victor

Why: His last eighth-mile (11.96) and three-eighths (35.67) in the Blue Grass were the fastest of any horse who will get in the field.

Why not: He's not a dirt horse, and he's owned by Tom and Jack Conway — it's been tough going for Democrats in national races in Kentucky.

Endorsement

Why: His Sunland Derby victory — over a very good horse in Conveyance — was one of the most impressive preps, and he came home flying. He is one of only four horses under Derby consideration to have earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure at age 3.

Why not: Seventy days before the Derby, he was still a maiden. Since 1933, only five horses have won the Derby after breaking their maiden during their 3-year-old campaign. Since 1971, only 50-1 Giacomo in 2005 earned his first stakes victory in the Derby.

Conveyance

Why: He fits the prototype of Derby winners, including good form at 2 and 3. He's a serious horse who has lost only once.

Why not: That loss was in his only start farther than a mile. He is a confirmed front runner and will have lots of company on the lead.

American Lion

Why: He's a dirt horse who won the Illinois Derby when he finally got away from synthetic surfaces.

Why not: He got away with very soft fractions in winning the Illinois Derby on the lead. (Doesn't the Illinois Derby winner always go wire to wire?)

Dublin

Why: He's a Grade I winner trained by a guy (D. Wayne Lukas) who has won the Derby four times, and his rallying third in the Arkansas Derby was very good. He'll benefit from all the speed.
Why not : He might take an early exit off one of the racetrack gaps on the backside.

Super Saver

Why: He's rounding into form off two narrow stakes losses this year, and Churchill is his favorite track. He's bred for the distance. Best yet, he's ridden by Calvin Borel.

Why not: He'll be part of what could be a wicked pace. The last Kentucky Jockey Club winner to wear the roses was Cannonade in 1974. Borel specializes in coming from last in the Derby.

Devil May Care

Why: She showed her true ability in winning the 1 1/8-mile Bonnie Miss in faster time than the Florida Derby.

Why not: She either wins a race or gets beat double-digit lengths. Also, she very well could be in the Oaks.

Discreetly Mine

Why: He's bred for the distance, is consistent and classy and has a lot of seasoning.

Why not: He's also a half-brother to top miler Discreet Cat and doesn't want to go that far.

Dean's Kitten

Why: He's training lights-out at Trackside, his last two races have been the best of his career and he'll love the distance.

Why not: He'd love it a whole lot better on turf. He lost by 33 lengths in his lone dirt start.

Interactif

Why: He is a high-quality horse whose Blue Grass fourth was better than it looks on paper.

Why not: He's a turf horse and is no sure thing to run.

Awesome Act

Why: British import ran well last year on grass but really is a dirt horse. His Gotham victory off a four-month layoff with compromised training was huge, and he had an excuse (stumbled at the start) when third in the Wood. All the speed is perfect for his running style.

Why not: His last eighth-mile in the Wood (13.49) was slow. No British or European-based trainer has ever won our Derby.

Paddy O'Prado

Why: He was good enough to break his maiden in a Grade III stakes on turf and finished well when second in the Blue Grass.

Why not: He might be better suited for the Irish Derby.

Homeboykris

Why: He won the Grade I Champagne, historically a proving ground for Derby winners. Trainer Rick Dutrow says he runs well fresh.

Why not: His 63 days since his last race (and that a second place in a mile allowance race) would be one of the longest such gaps for a Derby winner. The Champagne hasn't produced a Derby winner since 1993.

Jackson Bend

Why: He has never been worse than second and has a good stalking style. Jockey Mike Smith knows about winning the Derby on a long shot (50-1 Giacomo).

Why not: He might not get in the race.
By Jennie Rees • The Courier-Journal • April 26, 2010

[Midnight Rider]

Did you write all this up yourself? Good information! Weather is calling for rain AM and clearing as the day progresses.

[bri 23]

Just thought id put this up because u said it was gunna rain early midhight...............
Good luck on saturday lads!





Luck of the Irish could win Kentucky Derby for Paddy O'Prado



When they load Paddy O'Prado into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, folks back home in Donegal will be cheering him on.

That's because owner Jerry Crawford has his roots in that county, and has named his racing partnership Donegal Racing.

The big gray horse, second in the Blue Grass stakes at Keenland last time out, will be running in the Donegal colors of green and gold.

Paddy O'Prado has been very impressive in training at Churchill; his workout over a wet track on the weekend made the experts sit up.

He's a longshot because he is considered a turf rather than a dirt horse primarily, but if it happens to come up wet on Saturday, look out.

The homes of Donegal will be celebrating if this one comes home!

[WildKat]

Originally Posted by Midnight Rider

Did you write all this up yourself? Good information! Weather is calling for rain AM and clearing as the day progresses.

lol No, I can't spell that many words correctly in a sentence.....Jennie Rees was given credit below the article...she writes for the Courier Journal..
I want upper 70's to lower 80's...I dont care about the rain.......Warm means party