Einsteins - Humana Challenge

[Einstein]

6-1-1 +$1,750 last weekend on the green

The Bob Hope Classic name is out after 47 years and officially dubbed the Humana Challenge in partnership with the Clinton Foundation. The fifth round has been dropped in favor of a traditional 72-hole tournament, which is now being played over three different courses instead of four. These courses are among the easiest on Tour, so expect another low-scoring affair. Because of the rule changes, past results at these courses may not be indications of future results, anymore, and I want to take advantage of that; as you'll see in a few of my match-up bets.

Total Risked: $1,740 [still have $10 profit from last weekend if these ALL lose]

Humana Challenge

Outright Winner
$50 to win $900 = Bill Haas +1800

Top 5 Finisher
$100 to win $500 = Bill Haas +500

Top 10 Finishers
$100 to win $200 = Bill Haas +200
$100 to win $160 = Matt Kuchar +160
$100 to win $163 = Phil Mickelson +163
$100 to win $240 = Charles Howell III +240
$100 to win $450 = Brant Snedeker +450


72 Hole Matchups
220* to win 200* = Bo Van Pelt to beat Anthony Kim (-110)
220* to win 200* = Harrison Frazar to beat John Senden (-110)

165* to win 150* = Carl Pettersson to beat Ben Crane (-110)
165* to win 150* = Kyle Stanley to beat Chez Reavie (-110)

100* to win 100* = Brian Gay to beat Bryce Molder (+100)
100* to win 105* = Brendon De Jonge to beat Michael Thompson (+105)
120* to win 100* = Rory Sabbatini to beat Trevol Immelman (-120)

Top - Rest of World [Not USA, Europe, Australia]
$50 to win $300 = Rory Sabbatini +600
$50 to win $450 = Brendon De Jonge +900

Previews:

Top 5

1. Bill Haas
The winner of the 2011 FedExCup began the season with a 20th-place result in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. In his last two trips to La Quinta, Haas left with a victory in 2010 and a share of the runner-up position last year. In addition to taking home the FedExCup trophy and the big payday, Haas ranked 11th in total driving and 19th in All-Around Ranking.

2. Matt Kuchar
Typically a model of consistency, Kuchar missed two cuts and finished 19th or worse in six of his last nine starts. In 2010, he finished with a share of second at La Quinta before notching a T7 a year ago. Even while hitting some bumps at the end of the season, Kuchar ranked fourth in scoring average and sixth in All-Around Ranking. Expect Kuchar to return to his normal self, a top-10 machine.

3. Phil Mickelson
Even though he won the Shell Houston Open, finished as a runner-up on two occasions and recorded two top-10s in his final three starts, 2011 didn’t meet up to Mickelson’s lofty standards. Lefty hasn't played this tournament since 2007, but owns wins from 2002 and 2004. Last year, Mickelson was good for 16th in scoring average and 21st in All-Around Ranking and in his first 2012 tournament, I expect a strong performance.

4. Charles Howell III
With a share of second at the Sony Open, Howell continues to impress. Last year (in addition to finishing eighth in scoring average), he made 25 cuts in 30 starts with seven top-10s and 15 top-25s. In the last two events at La Quinta, Howell finished T13 and T26. I like him to improve upon that this year.

5. Brandt Snedeker
After finishing T10 at La Quinta in 2010, Snedeker missed the cut last year. However, he came up big to start the postseason with a pair of third-place finishes. Snedeker ranked 10th in strokes gained – putting, 13th in scoring average and 14th in All-Around Ranking. As one of the best putters in the game, Snedeker could catch fire in a birdie-fest like this.


Match-ups

Bo Van Pelt to beat Anthony Kim (-110)
Despite missing the cut at La Quinta last year, BVP ended 2011 with three top-10s, eight top-15s and 10 top-25s over his last 14 starts. That strong finish would allow Van Pelt to rank ninth in total driving and 10th in All-Around Ranking. Van Pelt finished T5 in this event back in 2009 and could be headed for a similar result.

Anthony Kim was very hit or miss in 2011. He had two top 10's, seven top 25's, one finish in the 30's, six finishes of 50th-82nd, and missed 13 cuts; so he had 8 finishes in the top 30, 6 finishes between 50th and 80th and 13 missed cuts; statisically speaking, he finished 50th or worse in 70% of his tournaments. He has played in this tournament twice, in 2008 finishing T3rd and 2007 finishing T45th. He missed six of the final nine tournaments he entered in 2011 and I expect this to be another MISSED CUT performance.

Harrison Frazar to beat John Senden (-110)
Thanks to a pair of top-fives to start the season, Frazar is very much on the radar. Since 2009, however, he's missed a cut and finished no better than T54 in three starts at La Quinta. Frazar is a 40-year-old vet and won on Tour for the first time last year. This could be an aberration, but the recent results say he's a worthy of a strong performance on these easy courses.

Despite having only one victory, back in 2006, John Senden is a very sound golfer.The Australian is one of my favorites and give Frazar a run for his money. He finishes in the top 25 in almody half of the tournaments he enters but Senden has only had five top 10 finishes in his past 60 events and failed to make the cut at this course last year. This bet scares me a bit, but I believe Frazar will finish 10th-15th and Senden will finish 20th-35th.


Carl Pettersson to beat Ben Crane (-110)
While his track record at this event is not very good, Pettersson earned a share of second last week at the Sony Open. Dating back to last year, the Swede has recorded four straight top-20 finishes. In 2011, Pettersson finished 23rd in both strokes gained - putting and All-Around Ranking.

Despite 9 top 25's in 23 tournaments last year and four top 10's, Ben Crane finished 40th or worse in 12 of his final 2011 events, missing six cuts, and finished 96th in the Fedex Cup Standings. Crane did not compete in this event last year, but has finished 50th or worse in three of his past five tries at La Quinta.

Kyle Stanley to beat Chez Reavie (-110)
After recording four top-10s in his final nine starts, Stanley finished T23 at the Sony Open to start his 2012 season. Last year, he finished T29 in this event and rose up to finish 18th in All-Around Ranking. Stanley does a great job of hitting greens, a skill that will play very well this week.

Chez Reavie LOOKS the exact opposite as his name sounds. He is not a cool, tanned, pot smoking surfer from California; he looks like Allan from two and a half men but wears Charlie's golf shirts .. very true and very bizarre. Over the last three starts at La Quinta, Chez has missed two cuts and finished 66th.

Brian Gay to beat Bryce Molder (+100)
Over the last three starts at La Quinta, Gay has finished 19th or better including a career-best T5 last year. Gay finished T6 last week at the Sony Open and could very well keep it rolling. In 2011, he ranked 17th in strokes gained – putting.

Brendon De Jonge to beat Michael Thompson (+105)
Coming off a T10 in the Sony Open, de Jonge is looking to capture the consistency that's eluded him so far. The native of Zimbabwe finished 30th in All-Around Ranking in 2011, while flashing some of the ability that's made him a perennial sleeper pick. In the last two years at La Quinta, de Jonge has finished T25 and T33.

Rory Sabbatini to beat Trevol Immelman (-120)
After a T9 in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, Sabbatini finished the Hawaiian swing to the Tour schedule with a T29 in last week's Sony Open. The South African missed last year's cut at La Quinta, but ranks fifth in birdie average so far this season; something that will come in handy on these birdieable courses.

[IPICKWINNERS]

Nice work last week!!!!

[Einstein]

Thanks IPW.

All lines from Bet365

[bt33]

I really like Kuchar to top 10, and I really like your matchup plays on BVP and Stanley, good luck this week Einstein!

[Einstein]

Thanks Bt33, surprisingly, through round one, the only guy in the top 10 (of the 5 I listed) is Snedeker at -8 (+450).

However, my 72-hole matchups would be 6-1 if the tournament ended today.

Also, my bet on Brandon De Jonge at +900 (to be the best peformer outside of the USA, Australia or Europe) is looking preety good after he shot a clean -7 on Thursday. The only players ahead of him, in this category, are Camillo Villegas and Sang-Moon Bae.

Let's see if the big guys, Haas, Kuchar and Mickelson will play well enough to beat the cut and give them a chance at taking this tournament home over the weekend).

GL

[Einstein]

Originally Posted by Einstein

Humana Challenge

Outright Winner 0-1 -$50
$50 to win $900 = Bill Haas +1800 [-$50]

Top 5 Finisher 0-1 -$100
$100 to win $500 = Bill Haas +500 [-$100]

Top 10 Finishers 1-4 +$50
$100 to win $200 = Bill Haas +200 [-100]
$100 to win $160 = Matt Kuchar +160 [-100]
$100 to win $163 = Phil Mickelson +163 [-100]
$100 to win $240 = Charles Howell III +240 [-100]
$100 to win $450 = Brant Snedeker +450 [+450]


72 Hole Matchups 4-3 -$25
220* to win 200* = Bo Van Pelt to beat Anthony Kim (-110) [+200]
220* to win 200* = Harrison Frazar to beat John Senden (-110) [-220]

165* to win 150* = Carl Pettersson to beat Ben Crane (-110) [-165]
165* to win 150* = Kyle Stanley to beat Chez Reavie (-110) [-165]

100* to win 100* = Brian Gay to beat Bryce Molder (+100) [+100]
100* to win 105* = Brendon De Jonge to beat Michael Thompson (+105) [+105]
120* to win 100* = Rory Sabbatini to beat Trevol Immelman (-120) [+120]

Top - Rest of World [Not USA, Europe, Australia] 1-1 +$400
$50 to win $300 = Rory Sabbatini +600 [-$50]
$50 to win $450 = Brendon De Jonge +900 [+450]

Besides the 72 Hole Matchups we had an average juice of +557 per bet.

Weird weekend and I wonder how the wind affected the results, but a positive weekend - none the less.

Humana Challenge: 6-10 +$275
Sony Open: 6-1-1 +$1,750

2012 Golf: 12-11-1 +$2,025