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  #1  
Old 12-13-2016, 03:40 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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12/13 dfs think tank

been doing way better in hoops than football lately, small card so lets try and win a gpp tonight on FD

i like gpp's better than cash games. cash games are boring. I've taken the mcp approach and focused in on 1 or 2 lineups, limit my exposure, and enter multiple tourneys

can you fade westbrook and still cash in a gpp? oladipo being out is gonna push his own % damn near 50%. but he's so f'n good. have to roster adams, his usage % goes way up when oladipo is out and POR front court is terrible

in 1 lineup I'm gonna try. prob gonna go with lillard & adams as bookends. salary relief will be courtney lee against the suns, high total, low spread, ceiling is prob 5x, floor in this matchup should be 3.5x. its a little risky with Rose and Melo who will prob shoot 50 times combined, not to mention Kristaps, but his minutes are there.
i hate paying for SGs since 90% of their pts come from points scored, but if Rondo somehow doesn't go, that leaves Wade and Butler, so I'm taking both. strictly a gpp move. i know its a big game for Thibs, but Minn struggles against real professionals. really hope rondo doesn't go which should help out with some Wade assists. too risky to punt a PG spot tonight by taking a flyer on Grant. if he's truly a GTD, the 8pm start time causes a problem
sf2 with tj warren out, ill try relief with pj tucker and spend elsewhere. my fear is lebron sits in the 4th, although he could have 45-50 by then, not a fan of durant tonight. like carmelo, not as much with Rose, but choosing to go with Butler as sf stud
for pg2 I'm gonna try the red hot Schroeder, not an optimal game, but projected low ownership and ORL pg's suck. strongly considered Jrue Holliday here as well. hawks haven't played since 12/9 and I want a very well rested Paul Milsap too since Biyombo and Vucevic are very doubtful, I think both are out but I'm not 100%. Jeff Green and Ibaka are solid values here, but I'm gonna spend on the PF with a high ceiling and floor
pf2 is a semi punt as well with Alex Len. always play big guys against the knicks, his value will come from rebounds and maybe he gets 10 points. expect a lot of knick shots and a lot of misses.
already mentioned steven adams, tyson chandler is a good value play here too, basically same a len, just more consistent and higher ceiling. but for being equal in price, adams has a much better shot at 6x-7x than Chandler

lillard
schroeder
lee
wade
butler
tucker
milsap
adams



working on another lineup now, prob gonna have to have westbrook in that one. its not smart to not play him in a dream matchup

Last edited by Seanie Mac; 12-13-2016 at 03:43 PM.
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Old 12-13-2016, 04:31 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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with westbrook playing and being 12,600, I wonder if the brow will come in below 20% ownership. he should feast on the smaller GS lineup. he had 47.1 last time against them, which at 11,900 is less than you would need from him. I know optimal is like 6.5x salary to win, but with the higher priced guys thats basically impossible. they just give you a huge chunk. with guys that are 10k+, you're looking for around 4.5x-4.8x. so the question is the brow good for 53.5 points tonight? his avg is 54.1 so I would have to say that the brow is a solid play for his price. he routinely gets 38+ mins so he's on the floor a bunch. his opponents have a a below average +/- and he had a 74% consistency rating.

talked about ibaka, he's in a really good position.

draymond is a really high risk high reward player, very volatile, could be a 7x guy could be a 4x guy. if i was entering 5-10 lineups i would have exposure to him, but he's too risky for me. same with Curry, don't see him approaching 5x tonight so I'm passing, but wouldn't shock me if he got there. durant should be really under owned tonight, he's been underperforming tonight, and he's almost worth a gamble. crazy to say the words durant and low ownership. he's only exceed 40pts once in the last 5 games, but durant is a guy that could get 60.

i dont love any so's tonight, but i will try and fit klay thompson in somewhere. he's been exceeding projections by 70%. he will have dud games like against utah and memphis, but of all the warriors, his 6600 has the best chance at 7x. he's a guy that when he gets going, curry and durant will defer to him. i think he's a solid gpp play, and if you play him in cash, you have to offset his volatility by having westbrook or davis.

already talked about most the sf's, a guy i didn't talk about that could be really sneaky is roberson, i will absolutely have some exposure to him. a defense 1st guy but he gets burn. no oladipo is a + too. i prefer playing him when he's gonna guard the other teams best player because its a lock for 38-40 mins. at 4000 if he just gets his average, 18.5, i think its a fine play. he prob wont have close to 30 like against the rockets when he was always on the floor with harden, but the blazers are a terrible defensive team, and roberson will shoot corner 3s. sefelosha and bazemore are 2 cheap sf's i like for gpp. both get playing time which is criteria #1 for a low priced "punt" and both have 5x potential. i dont like either of their upside compared to PJ Tucker though

pf - i have to find a way to get porzingis in a lineup, huge gpp upside. shouldn't be all that owned because of the higher priced davis and a slate with westbrook on it. he's def a 6x-7x upside guy. cheaper route upside guy is gorgui deng. he's way more volatile and I wouldn't own him unless i had a lot of entries. nobody should be shocked if heh scored 12 or 35 points

C - KAT's price continues to fall and most will be able to roster him because of it, his name alone will garner 25%. he has a huge upside as always and actually a decent matchup with an opponent that has a -2.64 +/-. ill have him somewhere, maybe a 3rd lineup. Z-Bo is such a theoretical punt with huge upside, but costs more than Lopez and Adams. he will get minutes but complete pass for me. with that said, Tristan Thompson interests me with Gasol out. Im not sure I want to take a chance on him but he could def get 10 & 14 tonight.
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Old 12-13-2016, 04:38 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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with irving out i upgrade Jrue Holliday and Lebron a lot
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Old 12-13-2016, 04:58 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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Wanna do a $25 H2H seanie?
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:01 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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Wanna do a $25 H2H seanie?

Not really to be honest, leak too much money heads up. I'm bankroll building right now
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:03 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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ok, I thought with all this think tank stuff you were locked & loaded for tonight!
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:07 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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ok, I thought with all this think tank stuff you were locked & loaded for tonight!

I respect that you took a subtle shot at me Wayne and now I must reconsider lol

Alright send it to me my username is seaniemizzac
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:09 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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Not a shot but after your 2 knockonwood posts, I figured you were looking for a reply and a game. lol
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:11 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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Not a shot but after your 2 knockonwood posts, I figured you were looking for a reply and a game. lol

I play GPPs every night with about a 25% ROI so far.

Didn't see a peep out of you for $50 Fan Duel bracket so I assumed you weren't really serious
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:11 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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https://www.fanduel.com/entry/111167...yne1218&cnl=aa

I have played NBA Fan Duel once this year and that was last night. Your chances of winning are pretty good!
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  #11  
Old 12-13-2016, 05:12 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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It says it's full

You gotta send it via username bub
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  #12  
Old 12-13-2016, 05:13 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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Hurry up because I'm about to run out soon so get this right
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:14 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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I play GPPs every night with about a 25% ROI so far.

Didn't see a peep out of you for $50 Fan Duel bracket so I assumed you weren't really serious
That's because I suck at the NBA and I have stated that before here. I did play in the season long $250 NFL pool. I enjoy that because it is basically once a week. If I played NBA every day, I would need a 2nd job to keep up!
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:14 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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It says it's full

You gotta send it via username bub
Just click on the link. It brings you right to it
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  #15  
Old 12-13-2016, 05:14 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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What's your username I'll send it to you

Cancel that other one
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  #16  
Old 12-13-2016, 05:15 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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Just click on the link. It brings you right to it

I just said it says it's full and won't take me there
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:15 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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Still says 1 needed
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:16 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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ok it works now
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:20 PM
mrhotpicks2 mrhotpicks2 is offline
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Needed that laugh of seanie not knowing how to enter a contest, was a rough day
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:23 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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Needed that laugh of seanie not knowing how to enter a contest, was a rough day

woulnt work on my phone i had to go get my MacBook

and fuck off
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  #21  
Old 12-13-2016, 05:45 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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guess i need to assume wayne will have westbrook
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:49 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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Why would you assume that?

I did 4 tourney lineups this afternoon and I just exported that lineup in to our H2H.
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  #23  
Old 12-13-2016, 05:50 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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you're one of the chalkiest guys I've ever seen
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:52 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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Oh ok
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:53 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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I must have Davis too than
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