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Old 02-13-2017, 11:58 AM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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DFS Helper

So I took quite a break from betting sports since the last time I've been around here and found my new hobby in DFS.

I've always been more in tune with the player matchups, fantasy and props aspect of sports anyways so it seemed like the route I probably should have been going anyways. So I took a dive in headfirst to the DFS world and I'm loving (mostly) every second of it.

Why am I back here posting about DFS stuff?
TONS of reasons.
1) I think there is more money to be won personally in DFS contests than in straight betting sports, and there are many reasons for that but given the current state of the DFS industry and sports-betting industry its 100000x easier to quickly deposit and withdraw from Draftkings for example than it is from a betting site.
2) Your competition in these ventures is quite different. In DFS your competition is anyone and everyone on the site. From people who have no idea what they are doing, to super heavy hitters that put tens-hundreds of thousand in play on a nightly basis.
3) Game selection- You can decide what you play, how much, low little, everything. Literally EVERYTHING is in your hands when it comes to DFS.
4) Every slate of games is like a puzzle- Every game, player pricing, piece of injury information, etc. is one tiny piece of that day's puzzle. Some late pieces of information can be so dramatic that you have to push the puzzle you were diligently working on to the floor and start a new one at the last moments. But still, you have to get the puzzle pieces to the right spot.

So personally why would I write? Why help someone that would/could be competition?
First off, I want to see the industry itself grow even more, the more people participate the more people in the community it will hit and thus the games and prizes grow even farther.
Secondly, I want to see my thought process and data that I gather on a daily basis put into words. You don't truly understand something unless you can adequately explain it to others. I hope that writing some stuff about DFS each day will help me improve myself, and my decision making in the long run.
And lastly, I would like to see people who put the time into something improve/succeed in whatever it is that they do.



I'll be back today with an advanced concepts post and then hopefully later with some plays that correlate to those concepts.

This should be FUN!!
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Old 02-13-2017, 12:13 PM
mrhotpicks2 mrhotpicks2 is offline
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NBA is the hardest by a mile IMO, but somebody like MCP owns that shit. i think it is to each is their own. MLB is my best year in / year out. but i still play NBA every single night.

just HATE when a player decides they are sitting AFTER the lock time. thats my biggest issue with NBA, it happens more in the NBA than any of the other sports.

i also prefer smaller slates to really large ones. IMO anything over 5 games is just 10x more luck involved because of the amount of players you can pick from.

but yeah you are right, knowing what is going on day in/day out with injuries and stuff is an absolute must.
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I only play "best bets". 1 & 2*'s are leans only to track.
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Old 02-13-2017, 01:45 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrhotpicks2 View Post
NBA is the hardest by a mile IMO, but somebody like MCP owns that shit. i think it is to each is their own. MLB is my best year in / year out. but i still play NBA every single night.

just HATE when a player decides they are sitting AFTER the lock time. thats my biggest issue with NBA, it happens more in the NBA than any of the other sports.

i also prefer smaller slates to really large ones. IMO anything over 5 games is just 10x more luck involved because of the amount of players you can pick from.

but yeah you are right, knowing what is going on day in/day out with injuries and stuff is an absolute must.
NBA is more predictable than most sports to a degree but like you said, there can be MASSIVE increases in variance within the slate with late news coming after lock.
It totally sucks and is completely unavoidable and gives significant advantages to anyone lucky enough to fall onto the pivots.

I can say with 100% percent certainty my largest losing nights were on nights were late news got me.
Pau Breaking his finger in warmups and Parker getting ruled out was my worst of the year. Seemed like everyone was on Kawhi that day so I liked my pivots a lot, then lost my ass as i had 50% Parker and 50% Pau.
And then the day Butler was a late R/O vs. Houston, had 100%, so nothing like knowing your drawing dead early....

This could be absolved to a degree with better mandates on injury reporting, which may be coming because we have seen that Silver is VERY in tune with the product/market of the NBA, and DFS is a very solid marketshare. So maybe that day will come.

I agree about the smaller slate thing.
5-7 is the best personally, you can really dive in and rule it down with research. Anything bigger and it gets harder and harder to get it all correct as the slate is just too big with too much on your plate.
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Old 02-13-2017, 05:05 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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There are a lot of things that should be looked at very very frequently in DFS but far and away the most important is quantifying injuries to the best of your abilities.

There are a few things that I think are the most important when doing this, with everything else falling slightly secondary.
I'm gonna call this the Venn Triagram (yeah, that thing with 3 overlapping circles, yes triagram isn't a word but it is now :P)
To visualize this make a circle, the first circle should say MINUTES.
If a player is going to be positively affected by an injury situation, you want them out on the court.
Draw the next circle, this one should say USAGE. Usage is an important NBA stat, overly simplistically its the % of possessions that the ball ends in his hands (via Shot, FT, Turnover). Usage is important, but can be overlooked as a good thing when its not always. For example Westbrook currently sports a 43.9% usage rate on the year, this will be the largest usage rate recorded in NBA with Kobe having the second highest at 38.74% in 08-09, a not so close second.
But also in this usage rate is his 7.56 TO average per 48 minutes this year.
So, not all usage is good usage, but most is, as it means they are shooting more, just be careful when using it and know who your talking about.
Last Venn Triagram circle, Fantasy Points Per Min.
Now you have a guy who is on the court, now this is your check to make sure he isn't standing in the corner. You want guys that get bumps in REB/AST as well as shots. Combine that with the circles above and your gold.

I've been tracking the players daily that have received bumps in all 3 categories (Mins, USG, FPPM) most the year. What I've discovered is about 60-65% of the time, these players score greater than 5.5x times their DK salary in points. This is a good benchmark to know if your players are "beating value"


When quantifying injuries, don't forget to LOOK ACROSS THE STREET!!
So often people will just see "Oh, hey Center A is out so I'll plug in center B"
Often a player going out softens the matchup for the other side. In this particular slate today we have a slate where Tyson Chandler is questionable, Undoubtedly people will play Alex Len if Tyson is ruled out. But don't forget to look across to Anthony Davis. The matchup gets so much softer with Len in. We see these situations daily.


I'm gonna call this next set "Parallel Pivots."
Embiid is out, so is Okafor for the 76ers. Lots of open Minutes at C are available, and Noel projects to be one of the best center plays due to price, but his ownership is likely going to be high at a loaded position tonight when there is an alternative to the Noel play. Lower owned will be Saric, he will get more run with the current dynamics as well and he hits that triad I noted above very hard. He leads the team with Embiid and Okafor off the floor in minutes, gets a 1.9% Usage bump and +.04 FPPM off his usual. I expect Noel to be at about 15-18%, Saric will be about 5-8% with just as good upside. Playing the game theory, this is a perfect parallel pivot.
Noel is nice for Cash and Tourney, But Saric is a great pivot and wouldn't surprise me at all if he is the better play on the day, and the better GPP play.


Lots more to come, but I need to set my lineups.
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Old 02-13-2017, 06:48 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Couple others that meet that same "Parallel plays" method tonight.
Play Warren > Len
Play Dame > Portland Bigs (and look across the street to Millsap)

(Yes, this is after lock, but I needed to set my LUs and there are late slates.)


Another concept: Funnel Usage.
This is the football equivalent of a shutdown corner being on one side and this will free up targets for the other receiver.
The basketball version of this happens all the time. The best example of this is the Spurs current lineup. Green is the 2nd best in terms of defensive real plus/minus in basketball at SG. Kawhi is elite at SF (but granted lower than usual, i expect due to injury and increased offensive workload), LMA is also significantly above average, and Dedmon is a stud right now at 4th best of ANY center in basketball.
So all this means, Parker is the weak link in the chain, and the place to attack it.
It's not ideal to attack the Spurs but it can be done successfully. The prices get dropped due to Draftkings dynamic pricing and then you get playable prices at low ownership.
The ideal situation happened earlier this year (when Pau was in, he is a below average C defender) and the T-Wolves came to town. Well using this Funnel theory, the weak links were Parker and Pau on defense, leading me to believe Rubio and KAT would be very nice plays as Kawhi will limit Wiggins touches and the others will get increased chances. This game was Jan 17th and Rubio had 21/2/15 and KAT went 27/16/0. This is the kinda line we are looking for. Wiggins got phased out with only 8 shots that game. Low owned Rubio was the perfect play there.

Look for places like this. The most comparable is Teague today, not as good a spot as the interior defense has improved from Pau to Dedmon but the premise still stands. I don't have a lot of Teague in this spot today due to my love for a few other PGs that I really jammed in (Curry, Dame, and some Kemba/Conley).


Positional Scarcity:
SG was tough tonight, not a super lock at this position.
This is more important in cash games.
For example, not a ton of great low price PGs today, so I found myself on the high-ceiling, high-floor plays of Curry and Dame.
I took the value at SF as Iggy becomes a great play with Klay out in a super high pace, no defense type game at Denver, and with all the GSW injurys Iggy will play a lot. If Iggy didn't become available I likely would have played Durant at SF because SF didn't have a super "safe" play before that.


Don't overlook B2B, 3 games in 4 and etc.
Teams can rest older players at a moments notice, or get ran out of the gym in these situations. They are better off avoided in cash games. (I say that as Jokic is in my cash LU today, but thats because it looks like he may be the only big available for Denver with the trade/injurys/illness stuff for them.)

An Example is Dirk in B2B this year. He is at 21.15 DK pts in those games this year. This isn't some phantom, phenomenon that can't be explained. It can be, he is old, he plays less minutes on B2B.


Are trends relevant?
Depends 10000% on what it is.
The Dirk on B2B above, probably relevant, they aren't going to suddenly give him more run in these games.
Another relevant one I ran today, Wings Vs. Milwaukee listed below

Avg Expected Pts
28.91
Avg Actual Pts
33.44
Points +/-
4.53
Consistency
64.9%
Ownership
13.9%
Seems wings do well, this is because the wing defenders not name Giannis are horrible, and they also were going under screens last time I watched them play and this isn't that kind of league anymore. So I put KCP firmly in play here.

I also heard another trend this morning of "Well Dwight has SMASHED the Blazers in his career!" Well this may be true (he has, he really has) those are different teams, with different players. If he smashes Portland today its because they are playing a handful of very bad options against him since they traded Plumblee away, and less a result of him "owning" a team in his career. This is a bad and irrelevant trend.


Hope anyone reading enjoys some new ways to look at DFS here, and if you have thoughts, comments, questions, anything I'm all ears.
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Old 02-13-2017, 09:01 PM
Seanie Mac Seanie Mac is offline
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DFS is controlled by modelers who enter 50 lineups

You could prob grind out profit playing 50/50 if you put a ton of time in, but right now both sites are filled with sharks.

Now with DK not allowing lineup changes after 7pm tip, it's even harder if you don't have 10+ entries in a gpp

I play for fun when I'm bored, but sports betting is easier imo
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Old 02-13-2017, 09:23 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seanie Mac View Post
DFS is controlled by modelers who enter 50 lineups

You could prob grind out profit playing 50/50 if you put a ton of time in, but right now both sites are filled with sharks.

Now with DK not allowing lineup changes after 7pm tip, it's even harder if you don't have 10+ entries in a gpp

I play for fun when I'm bored, but sports betting is easier imo
Then play 20, 30, 40 whatever it takes, its all the same playing field.

I've never understood that arguement.
If you think they are only winning due to there volume then go put 50 lineups a day into the quarter arcade for a few months and see how it goes, you have every ability to make that happen.
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Old 02-14-2017, 01:20 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Today I probably won't play much volume due to not being able to sit at the computer though lock being Valentine's day. But hopeful to get a few GPP lineups out today.

Interesting short slate as most the games have tight spreads.

So firstly the barrage of injury news coming out of Chi. Butler looks to be playing and he receives huge bumps in Usage and FPPM without the group thats listed out, but with the heel injury I can't say his minutes will be a total lock to be high coming off of this. I love his upside, but LBJ is safer at SF today.

With Love out and getting Shumpert back this will be the exact starting 5 we say against Min on the 1st of the month. Pretty much everyone gets a boost in some form with Love out, Lebron and Kyrie the most of everyone however.
An interesting nugget I noticed from last game is that Tristian played 39 minutes last game, this could have been due to a barrage of reasons (played across KAT- who also played 39, played well, KAT is dead last in Center def in the league). So i think Tristian becomes an interesting play here as he will again get very soft KAT defense and will likely be an off the chalk center tonight.
Kyrie, LBJ are super safe, and will be chalky.

The other side is more interesting.
Lavine's injury opened up some usage and minutes as well, and we have a good sample size on whats going on.
Wiggins sees a huge Usage bump of +5.2% and a .20 FPPM increase without Lavine on the court this year. KAT gets a small +.07 FPPM boost, but will get Tristain defense which is very good (top 10 @ Center). And Rubio gets quite the boost as well as he sees a +3.1 Usage increase and +.17 FPPM increase, combine that with a likely matchup across from Kyrie and his terrible defense and he makes a great play.

We can take the Minnesota side even farther, Tristian gets KAT, Lebron will get Wiggins, there will be some usage that likely will move due to these matchups, and for that reason I really think Rubio will absorb a few more shots against a HORRID defender in Kyrie and be a very nice play using that Funnel concept I noted above.

This isn't to suggest that I think Wiggins and KAT aren't decent plays tonight, not at all, they are still in decent spots on a short slate (and PF is thin) but I see Rubio being the best of the group tonight in a points/dollar sense.


Collison could continue to have no backup pointguard, putting him firmly in play again even with an increased price (He can also be played at SG on DK), but his minutes will remain absurdly high if Lawson is out. Also both these teams are interesting in that both these teams will be starting (and using most the game with) TERRIBLE defenders at the Guard and Wing spots. PG, SG, and SF have all played above average against both these teams all year long, this puts a lot of guys in play.

Something I've noticed so far today is that most outlets that project minutes have Russell projected VERY low, I'm seeing 25-28 a lot.
THIS IS NOT accurate unless the game blows out. His minutes are down because the last 3 games the Lakers played were blowouts. The prior 2 (vs Bos and Wash) he played 31 and 32 Mins and scored 40 and 48 fantasy points, at least sniffing triple-double range in both.
Combine that with a shockingly low price against a terrible SAC backcourt (thats been exposed to a lot of minutes lately) and he should be a great play tonight.

Young is also in play today for many of the same reasons, and Lou Williams. We have seen Afflalo and McLemore can't stop a nosebleed and this should be no different.


Should be a fun short slate based on what we know now.

Also, probably don't play cash games in these slates. 3 games is just too short to create a nice edge.
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Old 02-14-2017, 04:18 PM
mrhotpicks2 mrhotpicks2 is offline
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tonight is one of those nights IMO where you can't take all the obv high guys you can afford, cause you max your lineup with ease. got to take a shot on some cheaper guys that could outscore. that being said its tough not to use Kyrie and/or Lebitch tonight.
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Old 02-14-2017, 05:16 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrhotpicks2 View Post
tonight is one of those nights IMO where you can't take all the obv high guys you can afford, cause you max your lineup with ease. got to take a shot on some cheaper guys that could outscore. that being said its tough not to use Kyrie and/or Lebitch tonight.
I totally agree. This is why I'm pretty much rolling out only DAR and Rubio at PG.
Other values I like at DK are Young, Lou, Carroll, Randle, Taj
And then I have trace amounts of Zubac, Black, Nance, and Rondo
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Last edited by KUxINVICTUSx740; 02-14-2017 at 05:23 PM. Reason: Spelling
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Old 02-15-2017, 12:17 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Very doubtful that I make an effort to figure out this Wednesday slate.
Its 14 games and we have very little news currently, which means we are getting hit hard later.
It's also sort of common to have some super late (post-lock) news of players resting to give them a couple extra days to recover with the break.
Since I will not be able to be sitting at my computer through lock today I just can't see myself playing a slate I'm uncomfortable with, and won't be around to manage.

GL if you play today.
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Old 02-16-2017, 05:16 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Quiet 2 gamer going into All-Star weekend.
Fair warning I'm going through this all from a DK perspective.

I'm gonna go by position since its a little cleaner today.
Wall seems fine, Indy can be really bad on D but Teague isn't bad at all. He is a tad overpriced, but its gonna be hard to fade the most raw points on the slate, so I'll probably end up with more than I really want.

IT2 seems like a bit of a value here, going to draw some average defense here, but its pace down a touch. He seems just safe here.

Teague is my favorite and top points/$. He has gone overlooked this year and has been solid. The pace of this game and his cheap price has me buying in.

MCW actually seems ok, but he is a tough sell, I don't really mind Rondo either with Wade out but thats a roulette wheel that I'm not in love with.

SG- Butler, Butler, Butler and Butler.
Top player on the slate for me. He is just an amazing play without Wade, and in a large pace up.

Beal- He may go slightly underowned due to the face people are really excited to play all the other SG options today. Still in a great spot, especially since Ellis has been seeing good mins and he is horrid.

Smart- Going off recently, but thats not really who he is, but he will be highly owned anyways. His minutes are safe but don't expect the upside.

Ellis- Seems like everyone is writing him up today, If everyone if going to be on him and his low floor then I may fade, but he seems like a decent play, just not a lot of upside here.

SF- Butler again!!
PG is fine, he will probably be his usual 37-42 and thats alright.

Crowder- Seems like a nice pivot off the chalky Smart, but he will likely get Butler defense, I would say that concerns me but not as much today with the limited options and increased offensive load from Jimmy.

Otto- He seems to be the guy that just doesn't fit, he doesn't correlate well with the other starter if he goes off usually, more of a stand alone play that you hope pops off some steals to layups.

Doug Mac- Super low owned with Niko in, will be a nice contrarian play today. He has the same upside as Ellis at 1/8th the projected ownership, not nearly as "safe" though.

Keif- Looks like he will be chalk just because he is best available, I don't mind it, he has been on a run and I have no idea who guards him with Allen, Thad out.

Taj- Seems safe, Boston can't rebound, he sniffed a double double last game and hit value while only going 4/12 from the floor (mostly layups)

Olynyk- Last time they played Kelly O and Al were out. I could see a scenario where Kelly plays the stretch and forces RoLo off the court today. Leaving Kelly and Taj to be better plays.
This is also why I also think Doug could be a better play than Ellis today.

C- Gortat has smashed for 38,41,38 in the other matchups this year. And every time I've been on Turner (welp). Ill Probably split my exposure, as i think they are the best options at center today not named Kelly O.


GL, cash em all!
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Old 02-16-2017, 05:18 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Add Kevin S to the list of nice plays today. He will be moderately owned due to the late-ish news and is a better play than Ellis still IMO.
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Old 02-16-2017, 06:51 PM
MtrCtyPimp MtrCtyPimp is offline
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GL KU

Whats ur FD handle (name)?

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  #15  
Old 02-17-2017, 05:50 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp View Post
GL KU

Whats ur FD handle (name)?

Kbasch on both FD and DK, 99.9% of my volume is on DK however.
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Old 03-07-2017, 06:41 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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So on FD my exposure is mostly around Westbrook, Wall and then a handful of Dallas with Ingram and Bojan and Alan Williams.
Lots of priced based plays over there.

On DK I've got mostly Dame/Ulis/Westbrook at PG/G/UTL, Harris is my highest own SG, just as a pure punt at a tough price spot. Harris grades out well, and hopefully can manage some extended run.
Warren is my main SF, price play and the best ceiling of the group, if i could get up to Barnes I would but he isn't really worth $500 more.
Dirk leads the PF squad, Chriss, Keif and Nance round out my exposure there.
Center is pretty spread out, moved dirk here some, then have some Nurk, some Alan and a few Noel.

I took more shots that usual on DK, I think it will be a lot of fringe plays plus Dame and Westy to take a GPP down so that was my focus.
FD is tough because i think SF has really low upside, so I kinda backed into a lot of Ingram and Bojan, this can get you up to everything else you want to buy.
Don't really like Beal today at all on FD, he is overpriced and will have really high ownership, there is very very little ceiling at that price and ownership.
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  #17  
Old 03-07-2017, 06:41 PM
KUxINVICTUSx740 KUxINVICTUSx740 is offline
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So on FD my exposure is mostly around Westbrook, Wall and then a handful of Dallas with Ingram and Bojan and Alan Williams.
Lots of priced based plays over there.

On DK I've got mostly Dame/Ulis/Westbrook at PG/G/UTL, Harris is my highest own SG, just as a pure punt at a tough price spot. Harris grades out well, and hopefully can manage some extended run.
Warren is my main SF, price play and the best ceiling of the group, if i could get up to Barnes I would but he isn't really worth $500 more.
Dirk leads the PF squad, Chriss, Keif and Nance round out my exposure there.
Center is pretty spread out, moved dirk here some, then have some Nurk, some Alan and a few Noel.

I took more shots that usual on DK, I think it will be a lot of fringe plays plus Dame and Westy to take a GPP down so that was my focus.
FD is tough because i think SF has really low upside, so I kinda backed into a lot of Ingram and Bojan, this can get you up to everything else you want to buy.
Don't really like Beal today at all on FD, he is overpriced and will have really high ownership, there is very very little ceiling at that price and ownership.
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2016 NFL: 18-12 +6.95U
2016 NFL props: 1-0 1U
2016 MLB: 70-69 +.71U

Best Damn Capper Winner 2014-2015 NFL
2015 MLB: 152-146 +25.57U
2015 CFB: 3-3 -.2U
2015 NFL 32-32 +1.63U

NFL 2014: 38-18 +32.61U
2014 NFL props 2014: 18-30 -4.53U
2014 College BB: 46-60 -6.81U
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