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Old 05-08-2018, 12:14 PM
Keith Keith is offline
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It's A Little Early For Football I Know, But.....

in the next few weeks I have to decide which draft slot I want for my league's Labor Day draft (12 teams; no keepers; 1/2 point PPR; start 3 WRs, 2 RBs, 1 flex--TE counts as a WR). By virtue of winning the loser's pool last year (I know, like being the skinniest kid at fat camp--LOL), I have first choice as to what draft slot I want, 1 through 12.

FWIW, I had Gurley 2 years ago when he sucked. Of course, last year when I didn't have him, he was a beast. He is, at this point, the consensus number 1 pick. Realistically, the only others who I could see going # 1 (barring injuries, suspensions, hold-outs, etc...) would be Elliott or Bell.

So---do I take 1st choice, and then grab whoever I like most ? If I think any one of Gurley, Bell or Elliott are fine, then I could take the 3rd slot and be assured of getting one of them. As we sit here on May 8th, my feeling is that if I draft Gurley again he will fuck me over....again. Similarly, Bell seems headed for another hold-out, and I do NOT like to draft guys who hold out and then are out of shape for the 1st month or 2 of the season. As a Giants fan I hate the Cowboys, but I personally think Elliott will be a monster this year. Right now, I am leaning to taking the 1st pick, and then I can pick whoever I want later on.

Any thoughts ?

Thanks guys.

Keith
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Old 05-08-2018, 07:38 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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It's tough enough to try to decide who to pick when you are just slotted somewhere shortly before draft which I'm accustomed to, but having the choice which pick to give yourself is an entirely different beast! It would be hard to not go #1, logic seems to say so, but only if your are certain on who should be #1. Anywhere top 3 you can't wrong with with those guys you listed, but I will say in my many years of experience I tend to like to be in the middle rounds (5-8 maybe) because I feel like there's a strong chance someone ahead of you will draft poorly (like take someone outside of top 10 expected) so you essentially move up or steal a draft spot. Also then your picks are spread out so you have time in between picks to evaluate who you want next. When your #1 then you wont get to pick again til #24 so you basically just get the top RB, but then your not getting a top WR by 24 and your stuck deciding what to do for 2 straight picks. I prefer being middle round, hopefully steal a top RB 1st pick then get another RB or top 5 WR with 2nd pick. You end up with a more balanced team and not so reliant on your superstar #1 pick that will almost always screw you completely if he doesn't finish as a top 5 guy. But in reality, what matters most is just picking the right guys, draft position doesn't matter a ton imo. Good luck, and thanks for the smoking hot MLB plays so far this year!
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Old 05-08-2018, 08:46 PM
Keith Keith is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xone View Post
It's tough enough to try to decide who to pick when you are just slotted somewhere shortly before draft which I'm accustomed to, but having the choice which pick to give yourself is an entirely different beast! It would be hard to not go #1, logic seems to say so, but only if your are certain on who should be #1. Anywhere top 3 you can't wrong with with those guys you listed, but I will say in my many years of experience I tend to like to be in the middle rounds (5-8 maybe) because I feel like there's a strong chance someone ahead of you will draft poorly (like take someone outside of top 10 expected) so you essentially move up or steal a draft spot. Also then your picks are spread out so you have time in between picks to evaluate who you want next. When your #1 then you wont get to pick again til #24 so you basically just get the top RB, but then your not getting a top WR by 24 and your stuck deciding what to do for 2 straight picks. I prefer being middle round, hopefully steal a top RB 1st pick then get another RB or top 5 WR with 2nd pick. You end up with a more balanced team and not so reliant on your superstar #1 pick that will almost always screw you completely if he doesn't finish as a top 5 guy. But in reality, what matters most is just picking the right guys, draft position doesn't matter a ton imo. Good luck, and thanks for the smoking hot MLB plays so far this year!

Thanks Xone. Appreciate the input. Over the years, I have drafted in the # 1 slot and the # 12 slot. It is a whole different animal, when you have to wait 23 picks before you pick again. In those situations, I find you are better off with a list of who you want at each round, as opposed to waiting to see what develops. Agree that mid-draft allows a lot of flexibility, but the opportunity to take THE number player is awfully tempting.
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Old 05-09-2018, 06:22 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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This is an easy one Keith. You take pick #3. Let the other 2 guys feel the pressure of 1 & 2. You can't go wrong with any of the 3 IMO and that is a huge difference in round 2 picking ahead of those guys.
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Old 05-09-2018, 06:36 AM
Keith Keith is offline
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This is an easy one Keith. You take pick #3. Let the other 2 guys feel the pressure of 1 & 2. You can't go wrong with any of the 3 IMO and that is a huge difference in round 2 picking ahead of those guys.
Wayne--the problem with that is that, if Bell holds out again (and I believe he will) then I don't want him. Which leaves me pissed off that I could have picked first (and had whoever I wanted, regardless of circumstances) but chose not to. I hear what you are saying, but it is not as if picking # 22 in the second round, as opposed to # 24, is such a huge advantage. Fact is, only 1 draft slot gets three picks in the top 25. And that would be the guy who picks first.
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Old 05-09-2018, 06:44 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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I have no worries with Bell but that's just me. He will be in shape either way and he will play very little in preseason whether he does or does not hold out. I have had Bell in 1 of my leagues in each of the past 3 years (I run 3 every year), and he has been a beast every time. He goes 1 most years in our leagues so if I got him at 3 I would consider that a gift. You also never know what 1 or 2 will do. Last year in one league we had Antonio Brown go 1. There is an outside shot that you could still choose between 2 of the 3 at pick 3. You never know.
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Old 05-09-2018, 06:49 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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And when you pick again at 22, there may only be 1 top 10 RB or top 10 WR left and you will have the chance to grab him ahead of the other guys. After that a lot of them are somewhat equal or a crapshoot
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Old 05-09-2018, 07:13 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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Where do you think Barkley goes Keith? Rookies are really scary in the nfl because you just never know if they are going to get it from the start or take a little while to adjust. I really think he is good enough to be really good from the start. Not sure where he goes but I am going to guess somewhere between 8-15. High risk high reward with rookies but I think somebody will grab him fairly early and in that range, especially after the top 5-6 RBís are gone.
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Old 05-09-2018, 08:28 AM
Keith Keith is offline
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And when you pick again at 22, there may only be 1 top 10 RB or top 10 WR left and you will have the chance to grab him ahead of the other guys. After that a lot of them are somewhat equal or a crapshoot
In my league the RBs tend to get gobbled up early--even though we must start 3 receivers and can in fact start 4. There absolutely will be a top 10 WR available for me at pick # 24.
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Old 05-09-2018, 08:31 AM
Keith Keith is offline
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Where do you think Barkley goes Keith? Rookies are really scary in the nfl because you just never know if they are going to get it from the start or take a little while to adjust. I really think he is good enough to be really good from the start. Not sure where he goes but I am going to guess somewhere between 8-15. High risk high reward with rookies but I think somebody will grab him fairly early and in that range, especially after the top 5-6 RBís are gone.
Given that I am in NY, and many of the guys in my league are Giants (and Jets) fans, I see Barkley going late first round. I think his ADP will be low teens at the start of the summer and then he will bust one in a pre-season game, which will move him into the end of the 1st round.
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Old 05-12-2018, 05:29 PM
jim1701 jim1701 is offline
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Go with Elliott...that offensive line for Cowboys trumps any others that u mentioned...ALL teams are pretty much stacked with an all star caliber type RB...but winning the game STILL lies in the trenches...and you gotta see where that lies..pitt missed on OL line, Gurley's team may have to play from behind on most of their div games...or he will be seeing 8 in a box...Elliott is in tough division himself...but that O-line Id bet vs any defense line...young and more stable this year than the last...and u never know...there's always a Gordon or some no-name RB bhnd a good o-line that plays vs struggling defenses...fyi Fournette -- or Mccaffrey in a Air 'em Tear 'em Div with no D, many suprise upstarts this year...dont think you'll be seeing the same top 5 RBs next year....

w00t!!
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Old 05-13-2018, 10:10 AM
Keith Keith is offline
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Go with Elliott...that offensive line for Cowboys trumps any others that u mentioned...ALL teams are pretty much stacked with an all star caliber type RB...but winning the game STILL lies in the trenches...and you gotta see where that lies..pitt missed on OL line, Gurley's team may have to play from behind on most of their div games...or he will be seeing 8 in a box...Elliott is in tough division himself...but that O-line Id bet vs any defense line...young and more stable this year than the last...and u never know...there's always a Gordon or some no-name RB bhnd a good o-line that plays vs struggling defenses...fyi Fournette -- or Mccaffrey in a Air 'em Tear 'em Div with no D, many suprise upstarts this year...dont think you'll be seeing the same top 5 RBs next year....

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Thanks Jim. Appreciate the thoughts. Love Elliott this year---the question is whether I take him at # 1 or not.
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Old 05-13-2018, 11:32 AM
zeib10 zeib10 is offline
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First of all Keith, it's never too early for football.

Second, I view this a bit different than most as I would be happy with any pick in the top 6 selections......
You say this league usually goes RB heavy so throw out Brown (although I think he would go in the top 5). Bell, Elliott, Gurley, Johnson, and Kamara are pretty much the consensus top 5 this season. I personally like Johnson a TON this season as he is being undervalued because of last year's injury. Yeah, I know their OL is a bit weak and he may see 8 in the box consistently this season but Bradford can play when healthy and I like Rosen if he can't. The 6th RB off the board will be Barkley especially if you have a ton of Giants fans in this league. As an Eagles season ticket holder, I would struggle with taking him but I think he is the real deal on a potential explosive offense (except against Philly).

Those are just the 6 RBs off the board not including Brown or OBJ (Giants fans?). Include those 2 and you are at 8 off the board. If you go 6, you get a RB mentioned above and are now in the middle of each round rather than being near the flip.

If it was me, I go with pick #4 and target DJ.

However, it sounds like you are really high on Elliott (he plays Philly twice and is a Cowboy?), so I would go with the #2 pick. Most likely Gurley goes 1 and you get your guy. If for whatever reason he goes #1, you get the choice of Gurley, Bell or DJ.

Love the strategy in these leagues. And speaking of strategy, make sure you implement defensive players rather than an entire team. That adds another element and is a ton of fun!

Good luck with your choice!
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Old 05-13-2018, 12:07 PM
Keith Keith is offline
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First of all Keith, it's never too early for football.

Second, I view this a bit different than most as I would be happy with any pick in the top 6 selections......
You say this league usually goes RB heavy so throw out Brown (although I think he would go in the top 5). Bell, Elliott, Gurley, Johnson, and Kamara are pretty much the consensus top 5 this season. I personally like Johnson a TON this season as he is being undervalued because of last year's injury. Yeah, I know their OL is a bit weak and he may see 8 in the box consistently this season but Bradford can play when healthy and I like Rosen if he can't. The 6th RB off the board will be Barkley especially if you have a ton of Giants fans in this league. As an Eagles season ticket holder, I would struggle with taking him but I think he is the real deal on a potential explosive offense (except against Philly).

Those are just the 6 RBs off the board not including Brown or OBJ (Giants fans?). Include those 2 and you are at 8 off the board. If you go 6, you get a RB mentioned above and are now in the middle of each round rather than being near the flip.

If it was me, I go with pick #4 and target DJ.

However, it sounds like you are really high on Elliott (he plays Philly twice and is a Cowboy?), so I would go with the #2 pick. Most likely Gurley goes 1 and you get your guy. If for whatever reason he goes #1, you get the choice of Gurley, Bell or DJ.

Love the strategy in these leagues. And speaking of strategy, make sure you implement defensive players rather than an entire team. That adds another element and is a ton of fun!

Good luck with your choice!


thanks for the thoughts Zeib. I will have to let commissioner know what slot I want by the end of May. I understand your analysis and would be perfectly fine with a pick in the middle of the round. But, given the opportunity to pick anywhere I want, I have to grab one of the top picks. At this point, I will either grab the # 1 slot or the # 2 slot.
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Old 05-13-2018, 08:46 PM
Elevencents Elevencents is offline
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I wouldn’t be upset with Elliot or Gurley so I think picking #2 is reasonable. However, there is nothing worse than getting your 2nd round guy that you want expecting someone to be there in the 3rd and the guy on the turn takes him. So for that reason I would go #1.

Personally, every championship I have won I have picked at the back end. But we have 4-6 keepers so it’s a different story.
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Old 05-25-2018, 07:26 AM
Keith Keith is offline
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Update---I decided to go with the # 1 slot. I did so basically in an abundance of caution. Bell is going to hold out (again) and if either Elliott or Gurley get hurt in training camp, I am going to be pissed that I could have had first choice but passed it up. At the end of the day, the 1st draft slot is the only slot that gets 3 top 25 picks.
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